We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
|
By:
To the eye, I wasn't impressed by how long it took Cracksman to get going, now he can easily come on a LOT, and that's the uncertainty. JG is the right man, no question. Frankie has obv come back in better form than ever also, so the right man on board also. ATM, he is the best of the near-100% runners, of which there are extremely few !! (so maybe that's not saying much).
The one thing I would say is it's easy to get carried away by the Golden Horn comparisons, (and I was one who jumped at him after the Dante, and later dbled him to do the Irish Chamion / Arc), so not a nay-sayer, but just trying not to let that influence me. GH did come on a LOT in the Dante, so if this fella DOES follow that horse in terms of progression he should win the race, and he has a lot of class in his pedigree to suggest he has more to give. Obv, anyone suggesting backers should be institutionalised are in a bit of a projection ... But, again - The horse really took a long time to get going, and they were going downhill - I doubt Golden Horn would have been caught so flat-footed at that stage. |
|
By:
Apart from Churchill and Eminent what have the others near the top of the market done? Cracksman (7/1) beat Permain who in turn beat another inmate of Gosden ie Khalidi (11/10 fav), who, quoting Mr Gosden might not have turned up for the race where he was beaten by Permain. I understand another overran in Cracksman's race has won today but that was only a maiden race.
Come this friday AOB and punters alike will have a better idea (I hope) his probable leading Epsom Derby contender and chance. |
|
By:
The Asylum awaits Cracksman backers
 |
|
By:
Be civil, this is only a game!
|
|
By:
Don't want them to throw away their money. Could go to charity instead and help a worthy cause.
 |
|
By:
I came on this thread the day after Cracksman had won his maiden and my reasons for backing Cracksman are these:
I was impressed with his stride as a 2 year old. He covered the last furlong at Newmarket in 24-25 strides. For example it took Frankel roughly 28 - 29 strides and it took Churchill 28 strides flat out in the Guineas. So he has a good stride on him. Having a good stride is one thing but he also looks like he has the stamina to match. Which makes for a potent double. Immediately after his first win JG came on the tv with a plan already hatched so they knew he was already at a good level and his owner hadn't entered Golden Horn in the Derby so there was every reason to believe it was part of the plan. He was a huge price when you consider his breeding, his connections and his ability so I thought it was a no brainer. We all know how much Frankel horses are hyped and shortened so as long as he stayed sound his price was sure to drop dramatically. Since my original plan to get this far the Derby field so far doesn't look top class. There is no Camelot or Australia, and no Sea the Stars. This could easily be a sub standard Derby like last year. JG obviously holds this horse in high regard when compared with his other three year olds and they are keeping the flag flying very well. If they had all been duds the situation may have been different. I hope to cover my stake somehow but as things stand I think I will leave the bulk to win. I now think JG running him at Epsom was a good decision to give him course experience. He is also running him in possible the most important trial next week. With his stride and stamina I think he could easily get loose on the front end at Epsom and the doubtful stayers will be put to the sword. Frankie is as good a jockey as you could get. Negatives. His form doesn't look like Derby form to me but neither does any of the horses have Derby form at the moment. And his action is pretty high compared with what I have seen of the others. I hope they water Epsom well and he makes all. If he does, he wins.  |
|
By:
Very rational and plausible remarks about Cracksman,...just the quality of his opposition needs to improve to validate his position at the top of the market excluding Churchill, I think.
Cliffs Of Moher is no different despite beating Orderofthegarter easily but a bit surprised AOB has chosen to run him in the Dee Stakes instead of the Chester Vase though despite good dosage. Could it it is easier or the Chester Vase is more suitable for his other inmates? |
|
By:
Venice Beach to win this race? Very unlikely,...Churchill your master might need you if Cliffs Of Moher does not perform to expectation tomorrow.
|
|
By:
yeah not sure what to make of the Chester Vase, Venice beach in the box seat throughout but the second time in less than 6 days that O'brien has had a few finish in a heap. There looked to be a couple of non stayers in the race as it didn't appear to be run at a frenetic pace. I am squarely behind cliffs so I am hoping for a more clear cut success tomorrow
|
|
By:
Beckham has as much chance of being nominated for an Acting Oscar as Venice Beach winning this race, I believe.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
All good points ffs but I guess I am a punter at heart. I have been betting on and off since I was at school though not often and not big. This could be my biggest single winner and I fear looking back and saying 'why didn't I wait?'. I have never bet very large amounts and at 40's and 33s I haven't had to lay out a fortune and I know the winning wouldn't be life changing but the success after waiting and watching for over 6 months would be great.
At the moment I have a few options like laying him in the Dante just to cover my stake. Or perhaps backing a few savers on the day itself. There is very little equity in the market at the moment and if he broke his leg tomorrow I would be disappointed but not heartbroken. I've come this far and will at the very least recover my stake but the rest I think I will let ride. Maybe that's the punter in me. |
|
By:
My affiliation to the horse is due to what I considered a well above average time on debut. It was a hard card to assess and I might be wrong, but I'm fairly confident. My worry is not the form of his Epsom win, which I think was ok for a horse on his second start bearing in mind the scope for significant improvement from 2nd to 3rd start. My worry is the way he seemed to lack any tactical speed, and that his Newmarket win was a galloping, soft-ground success rather than that of a quickener. As such, barring rattling fast ground next week, I am hoping he will win the Dante very well indeed, as the long straight there should suit him perfectly. And I am hoping that, on the back of that, he will go to Epsom a more conditioned animal and that we get ground no quicker than good. He'd be a Harzand type, not a Golden Horn. Deep down I did give up the ghost after Epsom but there's clearly still a chance he'll progress and as I'm only on at 14-1 there's no pressure to lay off.
|
|
By:
I'm of a different opinion about York, Howellsey. It is a very flat and fast track more suited to the 10f than 12f horse but if he is allowed to stride on he may show us a bit more than he has. How Bay of Poets fairs against Cliffs of Moher tomorrow could also have some bearing.
|
|
By:
Thanks AEC and good luck to you. I hatched my plan in October last year but it was flawed because of the lack of liquidity in the lay market at this time. For this reason I have been forced to wait a lot longer for the market to form. As I have said I need not necessarily lay off in the Derby and I can back savers in the race as it approaches. An opportunity to lay may be in the Dante where if he loses I get my investment back and if he wins he will shorten significantly enough to make laying off at a lower price more palatable. As far as savers go the market is all over the place at the moment so that may have to wait until closer to the day of the race.
|
|
By:
I've backed Cliffs of Moher. He put up a good time at Leopardstown, by my reckoning the time was a bit flattered in comparison with the Listed race as I'm sure the ground was getting slower, but I still have it as a very good performance. On times alone I have him already good enough to take an average running of the Derby, assuming he trains on and stays of course. He was described as having sweated up beforehand and given his style of running that day I wouldn't have been surprised if he'd been aimed at the Irish Guineas. I'm glad that wasn't the target as I'm not sure if he would've quite had enough pace to win that. I don't know for sure if he'll stay 12f but even though he made virtually all the running last time he didn't look a tearaway, it looked more of a case of him being ridden that way. The yard could have kept him to a mile but instead they have been quick to step him up in trip so I'll take it on trust he's more likely to stay. There's always the chance he might not go on from 2 to 3 but even at the current price I think the odds allow for that risk. I've also had a few quid on him in a double with Enable for the Oaks.
|
|
By:
agree that cliffs of moher looks a good prospect. as topspeed in racingpost said, few juvenile maiden winners post a figure in the 100s.
be interesting to see what he does today and mirage dancer should be a good yardstick. my only concern with cliffs of moher would be the 1 mile four distance. at the moment all we have basically learnt so far is that the derby is completely wide open. if cliffs of moher wins well today, or something like a cracksman emerges from the dante with an impressive performance, that might put a different slant on it. if things stay like they are hard to believe they won't be tempted to run Churchill, at least to found out. |
|
By:
I'd be surprised if they run Churchill, I think they're very unlikely to do what they did with King of Kings. Their recent Guineas runners that also ran in the Derby were always intended for the Derby, the Guineas was a bonus along the way. They'll view the Irish Guineas and SJP as easy pickings and want to go that route like they did with Gleneagles. If they do surprise me and decide to run Churchill I'd have him as an unlikely winner.
|
|
By:
true but on pedigree and running style is Churchill much less likely to get the trip than cliffs of moher, as they are both by galileo out of sprinters?
As others have already pointed out I believe they already have a stallion at stud in Gleneagles who has done that st james palace route, so perhaps they might be tempted to roll the dice with the big horse. btw I googled cliffs of moher earlier, looks like a beautiful place, presumably aiden named the horse. maybe magnier, hard to believe derrick smith or tabor would ever leave the house, let alone go on holiday there  |
|
By:
With Wave it's not certain how far she would've stayed as her career was cut short, she did run close to winning over 7f as a 2yo. I don't study pedigrees much and see it only as a rough guide but hers doesn't lack some stamina. In Churchill's case he's out of a Storm Cat mare so seems less likely. It's not impossible I suppose but even pedigree aside he looks a miler to me. Maybe he could stretch to 10f but I think 12f would be too far.
|
|
By:
I too fear Cliff of Moher not because of what he has achieved but because five of the last ten Derby's have been poor as this looks like being poor as well. I don't believe he would be getting a thought against New Approach, Sea the Stars, Camelot, Australia or Golden Horn.
AOB is suggesting he may need today's race and his form may not be as good as it looks but today's race is not strong. The Stoute horse beat a horse who has only won a maiden at Brighton since. Bay of Poets finished alongside Finn McCool in the Racing Post Trophy with The Anvil behind him. His run at Epsom will give a form line to Cracksman whose form is equally questionable. The horse Cliff of Moher beat last time has won since but he wasn't favourite to beat Orderofthegarter that day and he wasn't favourite to beat a poorly ridden Taj Mahal in his latest win and who has been beaten several times and been beaten since. Cliffs of Moher was well beaten first time out at Cork. This does look much like a race to the bottom as opposed a race to the top all of the form lines fall short of Group 1 in my opinion. Cliff of Moher had a decent write up as a dark horse in AOB's stable tour but Finn McCool received exactly the same treatment and he has been stuffed this season. AOB could keep Churchill for the Irish Guineas but with the 2nd horse in the Guineas likely to go there they may find themselves between a rock and a hard place. If they get beaten in Ireland Churchill's stock will collapse whereas if he runs in the Derby and is beaten for stamina the collapse may not be as bad. Just a few thoughts. |
|
By:
What is the dosage index of workforce, sea the stars, golden horn, and new approach aswell as churchill and cliffs of moher. If possible i'd like to know the same for sariska, qualify, minding, rhodondendron and shutter speed ?
|
|
By:
I thought Authorized and Workforce were above average winners myself and think most of the ratings services agreed. There will be some average winners, some above average winners and some below average winners. This was always the case in the past and always will be in future. It would be pretty unrealistic to expect every 3yo generation to produce a champion. On the face of it there doesn't look to be any above average potential winners, but then not many of us expected Workforce to win as well as he did, even his backers. Personally I'm not looking for a potential superstar, just a horse that can win an average Derby and I think HOM can possibly do that, providing he doesn't disappoint today.
Every year there is a lot of talk about Coolmore picking targets based on more on future breeding concerns rather than what is the best target for their runners. I don't agree with this, while I'm sure it is the breeding operation that matters to the above everything else, I think they usually they do what gives them the best chance of winning races. Get that right and the breeding concerns just follow. |
|
By:
*matters to them
|
|
By:
What's Cracksman doing throwing his near fore out like that? I'm not sure that's what I'm looking for in a Derby winner.
|
|
By:
Or even COM, was thinking Hills of Moher, downgrading him already
 |
|
By:
I very much doubt Churchill will be a Derby horse - especially as the other outstanding Junvenile has now skipped the French 2000, and is coming back for the (G3) Lacken Stakes - That said, it could easily be a nice prep for a race in the St James, the value of the 1m G1 (which he should stay) is huge.
Brigust, Totally understand your reasoning - good luck with it ! It is very sweet to pick a Juvenile and hold him to win the Derby - last time I did it was Australia and it was a fantastic feeling, regardless of the winnings,. |
|
By:
thought that look laboured, but clearly what O'Brien was saying yesterday might be significant, that they've only really got him going of late.
I think more and more than possibly Churchill aside they (ballydoyle) don't have an exceptional three year old colt, we'll have to see what the lingfield derby trial and dante throw up. Cliffs of moher as short as 4-1 for the derby which seems ludicrous to me based on that performance. |
|
By:
CoM - really !? ... I did back him to win the race as the 1m2 I think is his optimimum and he likes a cut ... but a Derby winner ? Not for me, yet
One thing for sure - If Churchill goes for Derby, Caravaggio is a banker for St James' Palace (maybe OrderoftheGarter also has a chance) |
|
By:
Not a bit impressed with the victory of Cliff Of Moher. Showed his inexperience there and, if rushed for Epsom, he could end up like US Army Ranger. Will he be rushed? Maybe not, in my opinion.
Last bullet for AOB tomorrow perhaps, otherwise Churchill could be called into service here. |
|
By:
Think that keeps Cracksman well in the picture for the time being. He beat Bay of Poets a similar distance and it is likely that could have been further given a good run. I don't think Cliffs of Maher had any problems in the run. Again the overall form looks poor to me.
I didn't go back as far as Authorized in my appraisal and at this time Workforce had only won a maiden and hadn't run since. My point about Churchill was based on Galileo's age and Coolmore looking for a strong replacement. Keeping Churchill either unbeaten from now on or upgraded must be high on their agenda especially as this looks a poor yer so far. In think Churchill was the only Group 1 winner in the 2000 Guineas, how unusual is that? |
|
By:
@Figgis BTW - re Caravaggio - I read back through the comments and AO'B was worried about Caravaggio's turn of pace being too lethal "He nearly knocks himself over when he quickens, so Newmarket was ruled out"
Still think he'll go over 1m, esp if Churchill does line up. Ryan Moore will have a big say re That, He did say "There'll hardly be a better ride" |
|
By:
CoM - really !? ... I did back him to win the race
nice little aftertime there |
|
By:
|
|
By:
it was a little laboured but to be fair to the horse he has only had three runs and once he was straightened out he ran on well. would have liked him to put a bit more daylight between himself and the 3rd but it did at least confirm to me that he should stay the trip. Satisfactory enough
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
"He nearly knocks himself over when he quickens, so Newmarket was ruled out"
Sounds like ludicrous hyperbole to me. So he won't knock himself over at other courses? |
|
By:
Well I can't pretend I was visually impressed with COM there. The only time he looked good was at the finish. On a positive I'd be more confident of him staying after that
. Maybe he can do better but will have a better idea after a few more races have been run and looking at the times properly. Couldn't rule out him coming on a good deal for the run, but also have to wonder about about that Leopardstown win, it's possible the ground had slowed even more than I thought between his race and the Listed race. |
|
By:
|