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Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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Well Uncle the day has arrived. Not the race I expected him to run in but there you go. Everything looks about right it just depends on whether he is good enough. He has a low draw and I hope he is allowed to make the running. His stride will be an asset. Twitchy bum time but if you are not in it, you can't win it.
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Happy enough with that considering what JG said beforehand. It might not be good Derby form but nothing has shown good Derby form yet. Apparently, could be going to Chester or York for another trial. Frankie uncommitted and said they will know more after another run.
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Thought it was a decent enough effort - though the 2nd and 3rd are pretty exposed.
Are you laying off now at 10/1 or hanging on a bit longer.  |
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you would have to be pleased with that considering the gallop they went...bit short at 10/1 though, this can only be down to brigust1 huge trade angle and the liabilities the bookmakers have stacking up on the horse
 one thing that would concern me moving forward with him is his action as he did seem to climb on the ground and he certainly hasn't got a fluent fast ground action...his mother ran ok on better ground but did devour bottomless ground she was by pivotal and was a very progressive mare... he picked up nicely considering the second took his ground and got first run on him, he had had a perfect trip up till that point, the slow gallop wouldn't of helped either and the second was also fit from a prep run as well... he did well to pick him up in all fairness and would have learnt plenty from the experience, his next run will tell us more but i personally wouldn't be so keen if he encountered fast ground again and was a short price, he clearly handled it today but i'd like to see him on some ground with some ease he has a nice attitude and i'd imagine he will step again... you boys have at least got nice voucher, others like me who are not playing yet, we can just relax and watch the trails unfold without the anxiety |
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I have a few possibilities but I had hoped to lay off at shorter obviously.
1) I may wait until after the 2000 Guineas where decisions about Churchill, Barney Roy and Eminent could be made to shake up the betting. If Churchill wins, as expected, he could go to the Irish Guineas that could shake up the betting. 2) I think he could win another trail so if he went to Chester and won easily I would have a week before the Dante winner entered the scene. With what I have seen at the moment I don't think the Derby is a possibility but take Churchill out, and I don't think he will run, it looks wide open. |
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what price you looking to get out at brigust
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Brigust .. that was educational thought horse ran a grand race time was slow didn't help also thought Frankie knew what he had under him won well still learning we know that will stay mile and a half all systems go I think this oss could be the real deal not flamboyant but a fab athlete don't give up will go to York or Chester and gallop them into submission if Churchill konks will go off roundabout Derby favourite Mr Gosden knows not a man to underestimate. Gets a big OI OI from me.
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There's enough in that performace for his backers to retain enough hope. You'll just have to see where he turns up next. Needs more experience. I was impressed enough.
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Around 7s I was aiming at but if I have to go higher I will. The outlook didn't develop as I thought so may just let it run. I will let you know.
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the winner comes from the ballysax/derrinstown , guineas or dante . with one or two over the last seventeen years coming from elsewhere. ruler of the world chester vase , pour moi grefelle and kris kin the dee stakes . the ballysax returns the best roi on sp,s with harzand @13/2 ,high chap @ 6/1, galileo @11/4 and sinndar @7/1 . the rest of the trials return a loss though there is a angle that a inexperienced horse can place in the dante and progress to win the derby in the form of workforce whom won it @6/1 but if you wait to see the winner of key trials including the guineas , dee stakes , chester vase etc you lose in the long run . to get the price a leap of faith is required . could joseph have turned around and massively improved rekindling ? hes the ballysax winner ! could capri come on a ton ? cracksman has done nowt wrong and mirage dancer showed a great attitude to win at donny . i think rekindling could be underrated as hes unfashionable
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I have added Crystal Ocean @ 40/1.
Thrashed my 'dark horse to follow' Okool at Nottingham on Saturday evening and has the breeding and connections to make him a potentially very interesting player. |
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Pretty quiet market at the moment for the derby, assume most people are biding their time until the first classic is over then we obviously have a whole host of big name trials including the Chester Vase, Dante etc.
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Not much happening in this market but hopefully, post the 2000G and the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown this weekend with Capri and Yucatan will shed more light on the Epsom Derby picture. However, another of AOB's inmates ie Cliffs Of Moher is much shorter in the betting than these two of his.
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Yes I am hoping that Cliffs will be entered in the Chester Vase next week but it appears to only have 5 day decs so we won't know until saturday whether he has or hasn't been.
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Looks an awful derrinstown by the way all fairly exposed at 2 and APO having 95% of the entries. I would be amazed if the winner of the Derby came from that bunch as it would have to be a very moderate renewal.
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Of course, the joker in the pack is still Churchill. Hopefully, he can emulate Australia, win or not post the 2000G on saturday; fairly hopeful with its temperament and style of running for this.
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think Australia had a more stamina-laden pedigree than Churchill did
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Churchill has just won the 2000G, but opinions amongst bookies are divided regards this race; he presently trades between 5/2 and 6/1. Will he or won't he? That is the question for backers of this race.
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I123 - please rearrange these words to make a well known phrase:
 bleeding, thanks, obvious, the, for, stating |
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I had no idea Churchill had just won the 2000 Guineas. Useful information for users of a betting site.
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impossible gets a lot of abuse on here but doesn't do himself any favours. A lot of his comments utterly banal.
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Brig .. looks like Cracksman for the Dante on May 18th. We are still in there shouting.
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I read on the O'Brien fan twitter feed the other day (which is usually reasonably well informed), That Sir John Lavery goes for the Chester Vase, Cliffs of Moher for the Dee stakes and Exemplar to Lingfield for the derby trial there
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Really nice boost to the Cracksman form yesterday with MJ horse bolting up.Think you could read the Epsom form a couple of ways but now looks immediately stronger!
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The AOB's trio finished in a heap in the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown. Very unlikely the winner will come from there, I'd think; Churchill,...you could be needed here.
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Yeah i would agree didn't look a strong race before hand with a host of fairly well exposed horses and that appeared to the eye how it played out. I was surprised that Yuctan didn't drift more than he did after that as he looks to limitations. The trials over the next week should tell us a lot more including the two races at Chester
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Brig .. you're a bit quiet hope you are very well. Have you got a position yet just over £200 done at 9.0 lowest on here not exactly what you were after. Wins Dante will be no bigger than 3/1.
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Hi Loto. Been in France for 10 days, arrived back late last night. All they wanted to talk about was Macron and Le Pen ffs. I did manage to get the 2000 Gns result and have been dithering ever since. Not laid off anything yet because, as you say, things could get very interesting. The sad thing is the alternative to laying off is to back the major opposition to cover my stake but the picture looks so wide open I don't yet know what the major opposition is. I will let you know.
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Sit on your hands imo Brig. Im in same scenario as a winter antepost backer & had him in an ew 1200/1 dble too with Barney Roy from back in feb :( The only trainer im concerned with at the moment is the silent stoute who has Mirage Dancer likely lurking as a Dante runner from what i gather so he could be one to chance back with no concern if those stakes go pop. I dont think its wise to lay cracksman at the moment. He looks a trial winner way things are shaping up imo and if he does then you can lay and sit pretty in a great position as churchill possibly dissapears out the reckoning. Tricky if you feel you need to get something back before trials but i think events transpiring as they have just mean you have to sit on hands till at least dante day when you can see what is lining up there against him. Dante derby dbles on a couple of them would prob be the way to potshot it a little maybe.
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I am at the moment jm. Of course if he is short for the Dante I could lay him then if he loses I get my money back and if he wins he could be less costly and more profitable to lay in the Derby.
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Nice form boost for Cracksman with the maiden winner at Chester franking the form of the Epsom run again, stayed on well when came under pressure. Other fancied horses in the maiden were both in the frame.
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If anybody thinks Cracksman will win the Derby they should be committed. Mind you most of you on here should be.
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The Derby winner is out on Friday
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Let's hope so otherwise the stable's ace might have to step in ie Churchill.
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I actually agree with part of what you sat TMB but I am struggling to find suitable opponents to cover my bet with. You are clearly up to speed with things so why don't you tell me who will beat him?
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Don't have to prove myself brigust. I'm not one to take 10 positions about a race like some on here and then who can't admit that they got it badly wrong. Have not come on here crowing about how right I was. I say who I think will win and who I think won't. You could not have got a clearer message from me about the 2000G from last year and on the run up to the race. Do not back Cracksman. Will not win. If you don't know why my friend go and do your homework. I'm not doing it for you.
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Brave words, Try My Best, about a twice raced, unbeaten Gosden horse with course experience, heading for the Dante. This being a forum, dogmatic statements with no reasoning are a little futile surely. Let's hear your arguments.
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Got you TMB. You reckon a horse who is 8/1 on to lose will not win. Then when it loses you will come on here crowing about what you know.
I've backed Cracksman mainly because I thought he would shorten up and he has. I didn't think he would win at the time but the race is cutting up and could easily cut up further especially with O'Brien's horses looking to be a mixed bag. Gosden seems to be treating him like is best chance in the race and his horses are certainly running well and consistently. These are interesting times I think. No wild nonsensical statements from me while I wait for the men in white coats to arrive. |
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At this stage I don't think anyone can say for sure if Cracksman is good enough to win the Derby or not. When a horse is priced at around 8/1 then there's obviously more chance it won't win than it will. The Epsom trial was very slowly run early on, hence the poor time, so it was always going to be difficult to win impressively in those circumstances. I thought he did alright given how the race was run. Let's see how he gets on with what should be a better run race at York.
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Ignore the clown...Cracksman done nothing wrong,form been boosted while in his box,Dante can be the best guide,stay in there mate!Personally think may go quite short end of next week!
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