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Horse Antepost
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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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you would have to be hoping the frankels step up at 3... i'm looking forward to the filly of luca cumanis Aljezeera, i'm not sure how good she is but she can only get better in the right hands
cracksman is an interesting recruit and is also in the right hands, although his pedigree doesn't scream derby to me, although neither did golden horns...we'll know more soon |
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Many thought Frankel should have run in the Derby HC but Henry doubted his temperament. This horse has the right temperament and a lovely big stride. Newbury will suit him in his trial which I am hoping he wins and wins easily. Given his stride if he gets loose on the front at Epsom who knows. I don't know if he is good enough to win but it is a very open contest so far and he will be one of the earliest strikers. I saw him win at Newmarket, read the comments afterwards and it was clear they already had a fixed plan in mind. That works for me. I hope and expect not to lose and I also hope I win. If you know what I mean.
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ye i see your angling brigust with him and he seems a lot more settled compared with some of frankels other progeny, to early for me i have to say, i need to weigh it all up...i'll be surprised if churchill is aimed this way but who knows what they will do after the guineas
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A few shillings at 25s HC? When he wins at Newbury where I think he will be short his price will plummet given his breeding and connections. Then it's a free bet to nothing and in at the start. What's not to like?
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Not sure Cracksman is being aimed at a conditions race at Newbury as John Gosden stated in yesterday’s RP-
“Cracksman could go to the Guineas but we’ll aim at the Feilden Stakes at the Craven meeting, which will tell us where we are as regards trip.” With Cracksman’s Listed-winning dam Rhadegunda (Pivotal) coming from the family of the 1000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner On the House and his sire being a Guineas winner, I thought he could have one-mile Group One speed and backed him for the first Classic. With Halla San on his page I would think he’d get 10 furlongs for sure but we’ll just have to see if he gets the mile and a half. |
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Only ap i had was on waldgeist a while back. I'd appear to be on my own. Looked green enough winning a group 1, and would get the trip. If he has strengthened up well enough, and it didn't turn out to be the strongest renewals, i'd be hopefull he could run a respectable race.
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Waldgeist
You are not on your own with Waldgeist, since all the Galileo Derby winners have been chestnuts it makes sense to me. Dermot Weld's unraced colt Neptune is another coincidently. |
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Beryl .. Brig writes lot common sense respect his opinions importantly has seen the beast and is a machine good enough for me. Bits money for it we are ON.
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Given his connections the Fielden would seem the obvious starting point with the Dante next if he proves good enough and then on to Epsom - same route as Golden Horn.
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call me daft but are we all discussing the wrong sex
 The only reason I say this is because wasn't minding highly touted for the derby last year by some, although they decided to stick with the oaks in the end this seems to be the trend these days that alternative targets will crop up it might be a reasonable punt to back an Epsom oaks filly in the derby market at big odds with a view to laying them off later, the only problem is I doubt any of them are listed |
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I agree about the Feilden Stakes etc given Golden Horn took the same route and see no negatives about that. Newbury is closer for me but never mind that. They are going up in quality and the fact that JG thinks he could go for the Guineas is a statement of belief in his ability imo.
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I must admit in that cracksman race the second wild tempest impressed me more
has a beautiful long raking stride although lots of speed influences in his pedigree so might be more of a miler/10 furlong type |
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how could the second impress you more lewisham hanging all over the track??
A few shillings at 25s HC? When he wins at Newbury where I think he will be short his price will plummet given his breeding and connections. Then it's a free bet to nothing and in at the start. What's not to like? i wasn't knocking him or the bet brigust just that i won't be playing anything till i have been able to take in all the trails, this has worked well for me in the past and i do see this particular derby looking a nice open one betting wise, so looking forward to seeing how these horses have progressed...the 2 year olds from last year look an average bunch to me, so i need to take things in before any triggers are pulled, however if i had to chose one of frankels that i like moving forward it would be him so hopefully you make the trade that you want but no darts being thrown here, boring i know |
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God it reminds me now the flat is here of how much Gosden misleads punters with his Classic hopefuls. He is no Henry Cecil in his dealing wth us. Get the impression he treats punters with dsdain.
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Just phone and ask, Eric - the number is 01638 565 400 from the Gosden Stable Website. Post on here how you get on, it will be good customer feedback. You'll be able to confirm first hand whether or not the stable treats punters with disdain.
Here are some opening questions for you..... You'll no doubt have other much more informed ones. When do you expect Naseem to make his seasonal debut You must be excited to get the 2yo Emaaraty colt (Dubawi-ZeeZeeTop) - when do you expect him to make his debut. You'll be training for Sheikh Hamdan's daughter this season, which of her horses are you most excited about. That should keep you going - they'll think you're a racing journalist. |
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Whether you are a Racing Post journalist or just a mug punter there is absolutely no readon at all why Mr Gisden or any other trainer should answer questions like this. If people unconnected to the yard really do ring up asking for info I'd tell them where to go.
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That should keep you going - they'll think you're a racing journalist.
No they won't. They'll think you are a nutter. |
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Possible pointers in the Ballysax tomorrow at Leopardstown with three of O'Brien's running eg Yucatan, Capri and Douglas Macarthur; Harzand won this last year.
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Of all AOB's runners I think Capri ran the best trial considering he was tenderly handled and was giving the others 5lbs; he was 4th but was running on, and an extra 2f will see him in better stead, I believe.
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Cliffs of Moher has been really well backed since the weekend following Order of the Garter further franking of the maiden run with a win in the Guineas Trial stakes. Was still 20s on monday morning but the best price with any of the major firms looks to be 16s (only two go 16s) with most firms going 14/1. The leopardstown maiden back in October looked to be run in a decent time although recognise that maybe OOTG would be ridden differently in they were to meet again. Saying that 5L beating was impressive and didn't look to be stopping at the end. Has a Dante entry which is interesting and assume he must be highly thought of. There are no other entries for recognized derby trials. The three year old's that only got their first two year old run much later in the year i quite like as there have been a number of cases of the later maturing ones being the one to be on.
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Agree Cliffs of Moher looks a likely type for this. He's my saver. Still think Sir John Lavery is the one myself. He's also been well supported the last week, and wouldn't surprise me if these two are Collmore's two principal runners.
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CCM - yes i need to have a look at his run aswell, I could see a case where the keep Churchill to a mile and have a separate middle distance horse or horses. I don't think they will make the mistake of just running one decent one like they did last year when they didn't run the Gurka, which in hindsight looks to be a big error.
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think temple church a slightly underrated runner here, surprised it hasn't got a mention. doesn't seem to be listed in any st leger betting either, does anyone know any updates on this horse?
was disappointed with venice beach it's last run didn't impress me, I was expecting more to uphold the titus form. in general I would steer clear of the O'Brien runners, he's had three winners in the last ten years but god knows how many runners he's had in that period. I shudder to think and his lot generally get a huge amount of attention and hype. |
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Interesting that you use three winners in the last ten years as some kind of negative. No other trainer has had more than one winner in the last ten years, so on what basis would you steer clear of the trainer who has been clearly the most successful in the race?
Similarly, 3 in the last 5 years sounds much more impressive. AOB got to be the obvious starting point imo. |
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FA. I agree about Churchill being kept to a mile mate.
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well he typically likes to run about four or five horses. How many potential derby contenders has he got now? 20? good luck pruning that down to the one that will win
my feeling is with the O'Brien horses is I'd rather wait till the day. If he's got a small number of runners then he's normally pretty confident that he's got one that's going to go very close. If however he decides to run half the field, typically he hasn't got an outstanding colt. |
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Interesting that you use three winners in the last ten years as some kind of negative. No other trainer has had more than one winner in the last ten years, so on what basis would you steer clear of the trainer who has been clearly the most successful in the race?
No other trainer has come close to having the same number of runners as he has either. |
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Cracksman not entered in the Fielden stakes.
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Of course he's had more runners lewisham, but his record still means it would be a bit daft to 'steer clear of the O'Brien runners' as you suggested.
He's almost certainly the most likely trainer to win the race. |
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Brig .. Cracksman's price is on the move looking good.
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Getting twitchy. Galloped at Chelmsford yesterday with Frankie up. Went what the Americans call 'wire to wire' and JG was pleased with the way he lengthened. 'We are pointing him towards the Blue Riband at Epsom' he said.
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Capri, could be AOB's number 1 contender, is a stonking price at 38 here, and that is definitely value may I hasten to add.
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I was baffled by the Ballysax betting, with Capri, burdened by a 5lb penalty, a similar price to Yucatan despite their being much the same horse as juveniles and Yucatan having slightly more scope for improvement. It turned out the betting made no sense, that they are still much the same horse and that neither has made significant improvement. I'd better wait for the Derrinstown before saying anything categorical, but I'm pretty certain that, if Capri wins the Derby, I will accept my large losses with equanimity. Is 38 value? I suppose it could be argued, but he's extremely unlikely to win it unless it's the worst Derby in decades and the English cupboard is bare.
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According to AOB Capri could go for the Derrinstown Stud along with Yucatan; Cliffs Of Moher could have the Chester Vase as a prep for this race.
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Cliffs is only entered in the Dante at the moment, assume this means that the Chester vase entries aren't available yet, a quick search of the web suggests this. Anyone know when entries are made? The race is only 20 odd days away if he were to go there.
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o'Briens better horses have gone to Chester in recent years,he may not have a standout Derby horse this year except maybe CoM with Orderofthegarter franking the form a couple of times,Id be surprised if the winner came from the Ballysax,might not learn a whole lot more in the Derrinstown either if its the same horses again
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That was nice to see.
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WD Uncle looked impressive there but the race had lots of questions. On the plus side it won going away and could do nothing more. Hope you are on at the 40s?
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Thanks Brig.
On at 40's for Guineas and Derby to decent amounts - will lay off my stakes for a free bet and sut back and relax. |
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That was exactly my plan. Once raced maiden, Frankel, early win then lay off. Unfortunately, JG hasn't so far followed my instructions. Good luck to you. System working great send more money.
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