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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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refreshing figgis that you would actually admit to having doubts now. normally if posters have an ante-post debt they respond like pit bull terriers if someone questions that they might actually not win.
btw what is your view on the oaks mate? |
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Ffs, do you believe that was the real reason?
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Seventh Heaven - easily wants 1m4 minimum, and has turned very smart, Dam only raced at 3yo and over 6f (by Johannesburg)
Cape Blanco - Irish Derby - Dam never raced past 5f (Presidium) Johannesburg may not be a great influence for stamina but he still passes on more than Storm Cat. Seventh Heaven was quickly thought of as needing a trip so that's completely different to Churchill who has always been thought of as a miler. There are plenty more, and the Storm Cat cross is hugely regarded at Coolmore I don't doubt it is, but they have a pretty poor record when stepping up in trip these horses out of Storm Cat mares. As I said, of course it's not impossible he can win, but at the likely price he's going to be if running I can't see how he'll be any value. I'll side with him being another Dawn Approach rather than another Camelot. |
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Figgis, one of my concerns was about COM staying especially given the mare didn't seem to stay 6f. I agree it was fairly workmanlike although if it was over a 1f further maybe he would have won by more. It took a while for him to get going which might be a concern at Epsom where it can be difficult to come off the pace in a large field derby with possible traffic problems. On the plus side he ran a bit green and still won and all the talk before was of needing the run. I'm a little disappointed he couldn't win by further but there might be explanations and their is promise of a bigger run.
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LR, I've backed Enable for the Oaks. I was pretty impressed with her win, the time might not look great using a strict comparison but I think it could be misleading, Chester often is. I thought the 1000 winner was an up to scratch result and by finishing second Rhododendron ran a decent Oaks trial but I think she's beatable.
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The trainer's comment is not a 'hype' as it's a bit of a negative
Fair enough, I rated the horse highly myself so hype was probably the wrong word for me to use, but I still think it's a ridiculous excuse. There is no way they would sidestep a classic with a horse because it was supposedly too quick for the course, they obviously have very serious doubts about him staying any further than sprints. |
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Churchill has a very different temperament, and they can probably dictate things for him unlike the way they ruined Dawn Approach
I take it you've backed him then with putting forward such strong arguments? |
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Fallen Angel, I wouldn't mind so much him taking a while to get going as that could be because of how the race was run, will know more later. It was more the way he never really travelled that I wasn't happy about, Moore was soon having to niggle. Anyway, a bit disappointed but not writing him off yet.
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yeah i did worry about that. As you say that performance both on the clock and visually in his maiden win was so impressive that anything other than 5L victory not coming off the bridle would be disappointing. I am on at the prices before OOG won his races early this year, virtually every free bet I've had has gone on aswell so more in hope than expectation. I will be at Epsom to watch the Derby so just want a confirmation that he will run.
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Graeme83
Dosage Workforce: 1.00 Sea The Stars: 1.67 Golden Horn: 1.38 New Approach: 0.58 Churchill: 0.76 Cliffs Of Moher: 0.60 Sariska:2.37 Qualify: 1.14 Minding: 0.64 Rhododendron: 0.96 Shutter Speed: 2.00 |
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I think the only reason Galileo does well with sprinting mares is
Galileo is an Equinome T.T A sprinting mare is a C.C Their foal must be a C.T A C.C foal is a sprinter and won't get the Derby distance (Dawn Approach was a C.C) A C.T foal is the best Equinome type for the Derby distance. A T.T foal will be a stayer and may not have the pace to win the Derby. If Galileo, a T.T, is bred to a C.T mare the outcomes are: 50% chance a C.T, 50% chance a T.T If Galileo, a T.T, is bred to a T.T mare the outcome is: 100% a T.T Ok, you might point out that Galileo won the Derby as a T.T, but usually the winner is a C.T Coolmore are taking the guessing out of it. They know they will get a C.T from a Galileo mating with a sprinter. |
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Excellent as always, Kincsem
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ffs
Dawn Approach was a C.C and had nil chance at the Derby distance Churchill is a C.T and is the Equinome type for the Derby distance. It isn't a certainty he will stay, but he should certainly get 10f. When trainers mention the horse has a relaxed way of running and stuff like that the alarm bells should be ringing. "drops the bit", "settles well", "every chance as he relaxed so well" ................. they are a lay. That screams "won't stay". Even if Dawn Approach relaxed in the Derby he wasn't staying the trip. King Of Kings, 2000 Guineas winner in 1998, was another C.C that ran in the Derby. He did the same as Dawn Approach. He finished 14th of 14. "veterinary officer reported King of Kings was lame". Yes, nice excuse. He was lame all the way, 14th into the straight. For the stats of his progeny on the RP site almost all his winners are between 6f and 9f , typical offspring distances of a sprinter sire. |
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http://www.bettingmarket.com/churchill.html
Nothing to do with me and I don't know the bloke, just something I found when looking for the Storm Cat mare connection. I wouldn't be as dogmatic on this as he is but I like a man who doesn't mince his words when confident. |
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This chap may be correct but 7/1 is not a price I would be laying. He was talking about odds on etc and I wouldn't be interested in that but class is a difficult product to assess. In the 2000 Guineas Coolmore controlled the race and dictated where the opposition challenged leaving Moore protected all of the time and allowing him a free run up the inside. If Churchill could get 10f the other jockeys on the stamina horses must be aware of what is going on and not repeat what happened in the 2000 Guineas. Being a Group 1 horse doesn't make you stay but lots of 10f horses win the Derby.
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but lots of 10f horses win the Derby.
which ones? |
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I think the fact that Churchill isn't odds on, or at least a very short price, is indicative that he is most unlikely to run anyway, whatever else happens in the trials.
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must admit that in the paddock at Newmarket Churchill looked incredibly muscular
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winning the last two Trials has thrown up some interesting contenders after the apparently poor Derrinstown,
whether these last two days threw up a genuine Derby contender remains to be seen, people have taken very warmly to Cliffs |
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The Derby going might be the decider for Coolmore as to what runs.
No need to make any decisions for weeks. "£3,400 extra if not scratched by noon on May 23rd" "£85,000 stake if entered by noon on May 29th" "Confirmation of entry by noon on May 29th" "Declarations to run by 10 am on June 1st" |
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Golden Horn, Nashwan, Sea the Stars, Australia, Golden Fleece, Sir Ivor, Mill Reef, Roberto.
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I hope Churchill runs as I'd want to lay him at 5/2 or under, preferably under, but it sounds to me that they're not really seriously considering it an option. I seem to remember they left Gleneagles as a possible but it was never really on the cards.
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Sir Ivor, Erhaab, Benny The Dip were my guess at Derby winners that were 10f horses.
Very few Derby winners are not true 12f horses. The 140 foot climb to the top of the hill makes it a tougher staying test than most people realise. If there was a 140 foot climb to the finish people would be more aware that it is a tough staying test. |
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I have to agree about how serious they are because his price is so big. AOB said give him a week and most of his cards have been played.
King the reason many 10f horses get home is not the uphill climb but the downhill before the straight where they can fill their lungs. The times might look comparable with Ascot but there is nowhere at Ascot to get a breather. If the front runners take it easy going down to tattenham corner that takes away the demands of the trip. |
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I'd go along that even though he stayed it well enough Australia wasn't as good at 12f, actually looking back I have his best rating over 1m in the Guineas. Sea The Stars is a bit of an unknown as he never ran in a fast run 12f race, but with his speed I suspect he was probably better over shorter. For me Golden Horn and Nashwan were equally as good at 12f, even though Carson said otherwise about Nashwan. The others were before my time so I don't know, I remember Piggott saying Sir Ivor was a 10f horse.
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The Lingfield Derby Trial tomorrow does not even consist of one Group winner of any sort including Sir John Lavery who is the 11/10 fav; it is also the most inferior of all inclusive of the Irish ones, in my opinion. If so, can it be regarded as a genuine Epsom derby pointer? The form of Sir John Lavery is very mediocre, and not even comparable to that of Yucatan, Capri or Venice Beach.
With/if Churchill (is) unlikely what is the news regarding Eminent? Is he a definite for this race? He has a dosage of 0.74 |
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John Gosden thought GH was a better 10f horse. He refused to run him in the King George because of stamina doubts and I'm sure he was out stayed in the York race. The Arc is another easy 12f on the right ground and in the right draw to dictate from. Mill Reef was drawn on the rails in the Arc and was gone before his main opposition, drawn out wide, ever got into the race.
Australia I cannot get a handle on. I can understand why you think the 2000 Guineas was his best result but he wasn't even trained for that. I wanted him to run in the Arc but that' history now. |
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Anyone thought of Eminent? I think this horse will run a big race and will not be far away in the derby.
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Just to note: The article Figgis cited is more than a little biased, e.g. Coolmore was never a world beater - she did look extremely imposing and was probably expected to do more, but her best result was not winning the G3 Weld Stakes over 7f, but rather running La Cressonnaire to 3L in the Prix de Diane over 1m2.5f on Soft ground - a very good result obviously. She followed that up with a 3rd in the 1m2 Belmont Oaks.
Interestingly - taking a quick run through the Galileo / Storm Cat crosses, quite a few end up in NH ! Also, the article takes the exact Damsire SI of the great Danehill - a little too precise to believe it's a well-calculated number than just plucking the number for Danehill ... |
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Why would he beat Barney Roy, Essex? I guess if Churchill goes for the Irish Guineas BR will go to Epsom. He may have been unlucky in the 2000 Guineas and has Group 1 form unlike almost every other runner. His breeding includes Galileo so should have every chance of staying.
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As has been said by others many times, stamina is relative. If a horse has many pounds in hand then it can run pounds below its best over a trip a little too far and still beat the opposition. New Approach had pounds in hand of that field on his Guineas form so didn't need to run to his best to win. I didn't back him as I thought he might have bombed out completely like Dawn Approach did a few years later. He seemed on the verge of doing something similar during the race but managed to hold it together. I wouldn't expect Churchill to do a Dawn Approach but in my view his form is well below that horse's and that of New Approach. Will he have enough in hand to beat the rest over a trip that probably stretches his stamina? It's unlikely in my opinion.
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brigust1
I agree with you that the Arc at Longchamp is an easy 12f on good or firmer. It is turning much of the way and the ground gets very quick. But when it is heavy it is the exact opposite, a very strenuous slog. I keep old newspaper cuttings. This is from The Sporting Life Weekender April 27, 1996 Pressure on O'Brien "On the subject of the British classics, you can't help but notice the annual shortage of Irish Challengers." "Only Jet Ski lady, a 50-1 chance when winning the 1991 Oaks, has landed a British classic in the last decade." [I though they were English classics  ]"All this amounts to a massive workload for the precocious talent." "The sheer weight of expectations may yet prove too much for [Aidan] O'Briens fragile shoulders." Very insightful.  |
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It'd be nice to see Eminent and Barney Roy in the field. However, this was what John Ferguson said of Barney Roy. John Ferguson: "Sheikh Mohammed's 1st reaction was that Barney Roy is a horse for the St James's Palace Stakes."
Maybe barney Roy is an unlikely runner. Also, he needs to be supplemented too. |
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Brigust1, Barny Roy, if he went to the derby which I doubt very much, it would be as an after thought. Eminent, has for some time been considered by his jockey and trainer as more a derby type. Trainer stated that to have any chance in guineas he needed a fast end to end gallop which he didn't get. In the guineas he was settled midfield, made a move three out to challenge for lead, outpaced from two out, saying on when short of room one out. To my mind once jockey realise he wasn't going to place he let him come home in his own time with the derby in mind. For my mind if he stays 1 1/2 miles he is a big player.
All talk of Barny Roy after the race and since has been Irish guineas and st James at ascot. |
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You may be right Essex but what has Godolphin got in this Derby? Which is looking weaker by the day. Supplementing won't be a problem and do they think they can beat Churchill who has the same races in mind. Which do you think is the easiest option?
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I think the difference is golden horn looked like a middle distance horse. Churchill does look like a miler, at least on looks.
But then the way he runs, who knows! He seems to do it all very easily. He doesn't run like a horse that will just stay a mile and no further. And we had exactly the same debate before the Derby that Golden horn won. I like many others was convinced he wouldn't stay, because of his breeding. So maybe we're in for the same outcome here, no? I must admit though I did find that article that was posted earlier rather compelling. If he runs in the derby, I feel the percentage call is to take him on. |