Currently raining at Newmarket.

Every horse is beatable as anything could happen before and during the race eg a deterioration in ground condition, traffic, etc, but on form, little doubt, all things being equal. The 2000G is AFB's to lose.

Agree with the he comments re Marcel. Fantastic value at 14/1 imo.

Galileo Gold has a place shout at 25\1. I'd backed him for the French equivalent, which i think along with French derby could be more his race. If it's no better than good he could run on well, although i'd be wondering if newmarket is for frankie or the horse. I'd still have waited the extra 2 weeks, but what do i know ?

That we will mate...Some interesting comments on here, you can pick out nice pieces of form for most of the field obviously or they would be running at Yarmouth.

Everything is value because the favourite is miles clear of them all

If your assessment of his chances at 1/2 are correct then it's the fav that is the value at current odds.

they only gonna be chasing shadows


Even if you're right and he should be a 1/2 chance that still means there's a 1 in 3 chance he'll be beaten, so not exactly a certainty.

I consider it to be a certainty based on his form, his odds have nothing to do with his ability.

AFB could win easily alternatively he could be a sprinter....everything has a price where you can pay to find out either way

Hopefully the ground will be no slower than gd come sat's Classic. Only soft ground would be my concern for AFB, granted gd or faster he will win the 2000gns.

Massaat drifted markedly on here (11/1 out to as big as 20/1) in the last 24 hours.

Trainer in fine form with Gifted Master looking pretty decent, 2/2 this season.

Blue De Vega, Bravery, Shogun and Taqdeer were the four defectors as 13 colts were declared for Saturday's QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Fav the winner with the Craven winner booked for second.

a desperate affair for a guineas class wise and a guineas lacking any real strength in depth which is continuing a recent trend for 3 year old milers (bar frankel) as breeding continues to be drawn down class wise, with breeders continuing to use gambled on sires, unproven at producing decent class bloodstock

this bares out with war front who is proving a decent sire no more, siring the favorite here and stormy atlantic siring his namesake the second fav, he is nothing more than an average stakes race progeny producer, the longer the breed gets stretched the more the breed gets weakened, with mares with weak bloodlines then producing weak class wise progeny

anyway moving onto the race and a strong favorite here with air force blue leading the market, he produced a really good debut performance at the curragh when making all to win, this may have been against him next time at ascot when restraining tactics were used, as he pulled hard and was caught mid track with no cover, he still ran well but buratino who was also free in the race just a tad more battle hardened, nailed him after looking like winning with a furlong to run, i'd say he learnt plenty from this run as he has gradually learnt to drop the bit and improved significantly on his next 3 starts for hold up tactics

i like others don't have AFB doing anything special but i thought his phoenix win was a top class performance from a juvenile, although like most of his races he has run in, a muddling pace has been the order of the day and he has just shown a nice turn of foot to win...the dewhurst on the other hand they appeared to go a decent pace with just class prevailing, as the horses he beat could not sustain the fractions they were setting, this for me was the fact these horses just weren't good enough and in all fairness they didn't look good enough pre race...

he has a mixed pedigree that says he maybe a sprinter but chatham the mother who just sprinted in her career was probably just useless, is by marias son who has produced kentucky derby winners so it does offer plenty of hope imo

he is a keen type however and i'd imagine you could take 4/6 in running anyway, even if he drops the bit so if backing a short one is your thing i'd back in running... i just couldn't bring myself to back him at the odds but the race hasn't much depth so what price should he be, well for me he should be 4/5 at least here... everyone keeps saying aiden o'brien is flying at the moment, in which i'd answer yes he is, at dundalk and other gaff tracks but he isn't turning up any trees imo anywhere else, anyway 4/6 is the price no thx here

of the other horses i'm actually really keen on stormy atlantic ew here, a thoroughly progressive colt who just keeps giving, he for me ran up against one of the best 2 year olds last year in johanne vermeer in france just narrowly failing after going the inside route without cover, everyone keeps saying he needs cut but his pedigree says he'll love better ground and i'd put his run at ascot purely down to being backward rather than him not acting on the surface he rates a solid chance for me and if johanne vermeer were running i'd be all over him

people will argue well if you like the vermeer horse so much you must like marcel here who beat him at doncaster and yes i do i just want to see him back up his run really, although i'm certainly going to balance my book with him he rates the value, although he looked like he had a lot to do physically and may just need this race if he doesn't and doesn't need soft ground he has to go well

massaat looks like he'll be a better 3 year old for his rookie trainer, he got beat on debut by a nice horse although had to go to a gaff track to break his maiden, i am struggling to get an angle on him yet, hopefully this race will tell me more

buratino looked a decent 2 year old surely something will improve past him

galileo gold is a gamble here a progressive 2 year old plenty on here though surely

there are some likely rags with jim bolger having his string pretty forward i'd say he is expecting a big run from herald the dawn, ribchester is interesting but if i had to have a stab at one at big odds its zonderland nice maiden win after problems and i just wonder whether he could be a horse to follow this season, anyway i've pizzed on enough should be a good race hopefully the weather stays fine

I've added a little e/w bet on Herald The Dawn - really rated him after his maiden win (posted as much on here somewhere), and while he can't beat AFB on National Stakes form he shouldn't be nearly 40/1 - his run at Longchamp was a typical French race which never suited him.

Tongue tie and a noseband for the jolly. None of his other winners of the race have worn one. Remember Kings Best having the same gear on and it bolted up after not wearing it on it's previous runs.

Herald The Dawn has three lengths to make up with favourite but a lot can happen between 2 and 3. He may prove a good e/w bet or place only bet. I prefer the latter.

Air Force Blue has an all-American pedigree, sire side and dam side.  American horses are all about early maturity.
His last 3f in the Dewhurst were fast.
Can he do that again as a 3yo, in a bigger field, on softer ground, over an extra furlong?  He probably can.
I am clutching at straws, think he is worth opposing, but I am struggling to pick one.

I've backed Galileo Gold to have an interest.

Was at Newmarket when he won the Dewhurst and thought it was a good thing for todays race but Aiden O` Briens comments last week have stopped me lumping on.

Instead I have backed Stormy Antarctic and Galileo Gold each way.

Expect the favourite to be held up and delivered for one devastating run.We`ll see if AOB`S reservations are well founded.

Ground drying out all the time, early race times will be of interest, plus the wind will be behind them up the mile. Can't see AFB getting beaten myself, hope that's the case ££££