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2000 Guineas 2016

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Replies: 258
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 11 Apr 16 16:09
Wow GREED, just saw your other post where you "guarantee AFB will be 3.0 to 4.0 in running" ....certainly wouldnt mind a piece of that lol
By:
sinfin
When: 11 Apr 16 19:19
unless the trials show up something wonderful the field will b small and afb will b 1/2 at least but I want a run at that price cause u never know so I will waiting for the decs and no runner no bet
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Apr 16 19:31
Whether AFB turns up or not there is no value backing him on his own unless in a treble or acca, however, one cannot say the same about Emotionless; Emotionless is going straight to the Guineas, all things being equal, and the price will be much shorter than current given his price of 7/4 in the Dewhurst last year.
By:
geoff m
When: 13 Apr 16 13:31
Emotionless didnt pull any tress up in that gallop.
Hard ridden to get ahead of a tenderley handled pacemaker
By:
kavvie
When: 13 Apr 16 13:44
can it be seen anywhere?
By:
geoff m
When: 13 Apr 16 13:58
Showed it on RUK about an hour ago
By:
kavvie
When: 13 Apr 16 14:56
trainer and jockey seemed pleased anyway?
By:
geoff m
When: 13 Apr 16 15:10
Have you ever heard a trainer and jock say anything but after a public gallop.?
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Apr 16 15:36
I'd have liked to see the gallop though as it's only two weeks to the 2000G.
By:
geoff m
When: 13 Apr 16 15:45
Imo if they had been asked to race to see which was best i dont think Emotionless would have won the gallop. He struggled to pull 2 clear of a 95 hcapper despite 2nd being tenderley handled . Buick even drew the whip.
By:
keynes
When: 13 Apr 16 16:12
But it seems all the top-rated horses struggle to keep up with pacemakers on these public gallops. Same with the o brien ones, I recall. Might have something to do with the fact its a prep, not a race.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Apr 16 16:18
Ibn Malik, the horse that Emotionless beat dong hand stand, has just won a Listed race at Newmarket.

The question is is Emotionless the same horse prior to the injury sustained in the Dewhurst? If not, could that be the reason for the lacklustre (visually) gallop today? If so, could the 2000G come to soon?

Or Emotionless was carrying two stones in weight in the saddle!
By:
geoff m
When: 13 Apr 16 16:30
Link to gallop

Newmarket on Wednesday.

    WATCH & READ: Emotionless 'spot on' for Guineas after racecourse workout at Newmarket >>> https://t.co/sKy6e5h0Kc

https://t.co/v8OfYakMZg
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Apr 16 16:38
Thanks 'geoff m'.
By:
go-all-in
When: 13 Apr 16 18:53
Thanks for posting that Geoff as I missed it.

I'v backed Emotionless for the 2000 and I'm not sure what to make of that. The jockey did get semi serious on him but he seemed to still be travelling well enough and I think there was probably a fair bit left in the tank. There should be plenty more improvement to come (obviously). Not sure if he looks like winning a 2000G in a couple of weeks time mind. That being said, think of how many horses you've seen winning the Guineas having been stuffed in a trial, so massive improvement can happen, and it was only a gallop.
By:
jack-spot
When: 13 Apr 16 21:18
Emotionless needs a 1 mile 1/4 minimum,i think it will do very well to finish in the frame.
Terrible price for the 2000 Guineas.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Apr 16 11:19
jack-spot

Post gallop yesterday I tend to agree - Emotionless took some time to get past the eventual 2nd to me.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 14 Apr 16 16:25
They cantered early on in that gallop. The fast pace in the Guineas will suit him much better but whether he is as good as they seem to think remains to be seen.
By:
ZenMaster
When: 14 Apr 16 18:07
If you boys think Emotionless needs 10f minimum, are you taking the prices for the Derby?

If he is running on at the death in the 2000G he could well be value for the Derby.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Apr 16 18:36
Emotionless was at one time the Derby 'fav' until his Dewhurst run. I do not have a clue about his 'mum and dad' but he looked more of a staying type after yesterday's gallop. How ironic it will be if Emotionless bypasses Newmarket and heads to the Dante instead, then the Derby and ultimately the Leger or the Arc.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 14 Apr 16 19:19
I don't think he's a Derby horse. Ten furlongs would be his optimum trip on breeding.
By:
flash bookie
When: 14 Apr 16 19:36
been at hq this week and watched all the racecourse gallops massat; emotionless etc . buratino was by far and away the most impressive on the worst of the ground today which must have been soft before racing. he accelerated into the dip and drew away very impressive to me.he also has a very athletic floaty action which wud suggest he b even better on better ground. I have backed him today at 20/1 which ifeel to be v fair.sorry to say emotionless will hav to improve markedly to win a guineas [having watched his gallop] until today I had buratino down as a sprinter but he will get a milee no prob on todays evidence
By:
ZenMaster
When: 14 Apr 16 20:24
flash bookie

That is interesting and many thanks for sharing that with us.

Perhaps Buratino didn't travel too well to the Curragh and can be excused. Let's not forget he was fav to beat Air Force Blue in the Keenland after defeating that one in the Coventry.
He could be a massive price.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Apr 16 20:58
Good/Firm ground a must for Buratino as he was inconvenienced by the downpour when 3rd to AFB - he beat AFB in the Coventry at Ascot. Also, he is not guaranteed to stay 8f, but was catching Shalaa over 6f.

What about today's annihilation by Stormy Antarctic (SA) of Foundation, anyone impressed? I was, and if the ground is soft/heavy in the 2000G - 14 day weather forecast indicating a massive downpour three days before race - SA would have a great chance of upsetting AFB - better in good round - especially if SA could settle early in the race.
By:
geoff m
When: 15 Apr 16 09:09
Links reports and video to yesterdays gallops:

Lumiere and Buratino 'just perfect' after racecourse spin at @NewmarketRace. Read more here: https://t.co/zRo2qjvCef https://t.co/aMvbW758As
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 15 Apr 16 12:36
Damn it, i cant open that link for some reason
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 15 Apr 16 12:37
whats the news on LUMIERE mate?
By:
geoff m
When: 15 Apr 16 12:49
APOLOGIES TRY THEM AS 2 SEPERATE LINKS
Report https://t.co/zRo2qjvCef
Video https://t.co/aMvbW758As
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 15 Apr 16 13:01
Just watched it mate, thankyou...what u think?
By:
geoff m
When: 15 Apr 16 13:11
I thought Buratino(as flash bookie stated) especially  and Lumiere both looked and moved well and where the more visually impressive of the gallops this week.Especially given the gound conditions. As would expect both to be better on a sounder surface.
That said we have no idea of weights carried.
Giving or receiving a stone plus can make all the difference to the performance
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 15 Apr 16 13:17
Indeed, got a £50 treble..DON COSSACK 5-1, AIR FORCE BLUE EVENS, LUMIERE 7-1, plus ive bet them in singles ....no rain forecast for next 9 days at Newmarket also, BURATINO looked real impressive in my opinion...think i might have a cover bet each way on it.
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Apr 16 14:06
There is rain forecast on most days as from 21st April including race day itself amounting to about 17mm - is that a lot, anybody know? I'd anticipate good ground at best - yesterday was soft.
By:
GILLJAYSMOUSE
When: 15 Apr 16 14:12
its not a lot considering all the dry days previous, Newmarket dries out fast and i would be amazed if it was worse than good for guineas weekend.
By:
sageform
When: 16 Apr 16 14:22
I don't have a strong view on the race yet but Stormy Antarctic ran a very pleasing trial on Thursday and is value if the going is similar in 2 weeks time.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Apr 16 17:32
Stormy Antarctic could be a very big player in the soft given the likes of AFB and Buratino will be inconvenienced by it - Stormy Antarctic ought to have beaten Johannes Vermeer in the Criterium if he had settled earlier on. And despite Ibn Malik's win enhancing the credential of Emotionless who beat him by an easy 3.5l I'm not no longer keen on Emotionless given his lacklustre performance in the gallop with two of his stablemates. To me the 2000G might come too early for him, and he did not seem to be the same horse prior to his injury in the Dewhurst.
By:
geoff m
When: 16 Apr 16 17:45
Agree with that impossible. Managed to snaffle some 90s down to 42s Stormy Atlantic as he went past the post in the Craven and chances are we arent going to have a quick ground Guineas. Also bring into the equation Marcel who comes out slightly ahead of  Stormy thro Johanees Vermeer.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Apr 16 11:01
Timeform state the trainer “is spot on” to claim Air Force Blue “is the best two-year-old we’ve ever had [at Ballydoyle]”.

Have to say I find that an extraordinary claim to make on the evidence of the Dewhurst result. For me, that form puts AFB at the low end of the Guineas winning ratings bracket. I think he'll need to improve a few pounds to win an average Guineas. On the face of it this year's race looks well below average, with the opposition looking a right moderate bunch at this stage, so AFB may not need to improve but there have been many renewals where one or two relatively unfancied runners have outperformed their previous best.

On all known form I'd say AFB isn't an unreasonable price but with such a short price it's always worth looking for potential weaknesses. If this was a race only a few weeks after the Dewhurst then the price would be fair but this is more than 6 months after AFB's last run and while Coolmore have had a great deal of success in these circumstances they've also had some notable flops, like One Cool Cat and St Nicholas Abbey.

Usually when Coolmore have a potential champion miler it's apparent that they're well aware of what they have on their hands from the horse's first run, which is reflected in the market. However, what is interesting about AFB is he never even started favourite for a race until his fourth run, which suggests to me that he wasn't seriously considered a future star until the latter part of the season when he showed he'd improved. In this regard I'd say he has more in common with a horse like War Command than the list of previous Coolmore Guineas winners. Obviously none of this means he can't still go and win the race but I wonder if a horse that showed such marked improvement during his 2yo season will have as much potential to improve again from 2 to 3.

That said, I can't find an opponent inspiring enough to bet against the fav so it's a no bet race for me, although I might decide to lay AFB on value grounds if he gets much shorter.
By:
keynes
When: 18 Apr 16 11:23
I wouldn't back him either, but for the record, there was a significant gamble on him for his first appearance at Royal Ascot.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Apr 16 11:36
Yes, wasn't trying to suggest that he came as a complete surprise to them, he always had some market support behind him, just that he didn't attract the early type of support (and hype) that usually goes hand in hand with one they want to tout as the latest "best ever".
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 18 Apr 16 11:59
To be fair AFB was really well backed before the Coventry going off 7/2 from opening quotes of 5/1 so they obviously knew at that stage he was fairly decent. The following race he was 2nd favourite behind a horse that beat him 2l onyl two months previous so that sort of makes some sense.

Finally before the dewhurst and having no way of knowing that Emotionless was injured or not up to scratch (and was a huge talking horse that week) the money poured in for AFB to such an extent that the betfair bot couldn't keep the cross matching tool working properly. Would suggest to me that they knew he had improved out of sight for that to be the case. It was going to be EVS the pair before piles came in and he eventually went off 4/6.  The old adage that the guineas is the last two year old race of the season could well be being brought up again this time round.
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