Just a couple of points that might put the cat amongst the pigeons concerning trends. Going back to a thread with longevity from The_LUFCwaffe on ‘Typical 2000 Guineas Winner - Early or Late Foal?’ - Air Force Blue had a very late foaling date – 2nd May. Also American bred colts have a poor record in the 2000 Guineas.

actual level of rainfall is forecast as tiny though

I have always tended to want to oppose strong favs. I felt perhaps Frankel might be tapped for speed in the Guineas ...
I've scrutinised every aspect of AFB and I'm finding it very difficult to spot a weakness. He showed lots of speed in the Phoenix, sailing through unextended. He looked remarkably uncomplicated in a slow run National, racing amenably without cover, cantering all over Herald The Dawn (beaten 3l in the Lagardere) and winning on the bridle. So what would he find for pressure in the Dewhurst? Well, he was certainly asked the question by Moore, and a 6l beating of Sanus per Aquam is pretty persuasive on the book, although he was being ridden pretty hard to get past SPA and the winning margin might have been flattering owing to the others running out of steam. Nevertheless, my speed figure for him was well up to scratch, two pounds better than Dawn Approach, not mind-blowing but very hard to beat. Those credentials, plus the absence of an obvious challenger, a market rival of substance, makes it very hard to oppose him.
So I tried again and looked at his Dewhurst run. I'd be interested to hear other views on this, but the horse seemed to me to be looking a bit clumsy when initially put under pressure. His head seemed to be lugging right, perhaps staring at the crowds, and Moore had to make a sustained effort to correct it. Having said that, the horse did keep finding and it's very hard to crab what he achieved. Whether his final furlong is evidence of a strong finishing, stamina laden horse or whether the others simply wilted quite quickly is impossible for me to say. I wonder what might happen if there's a horse good enough to go with him for a furlong under pressure, but where is that horse?
Then there's the pedigree. As Madhu says, US bred horses have a poor record in the race. You couldn't say he's certain to get the mile on pedigree, or even that he's certain to train on. The Guineas mile is demanding not because of the track but the type of race it turns out to be - a sustained, straight gallop. Look at the record of sprinting sires in the race over the past 20 years: terrible. One of the few two year old races of a similar type is the Coventry, which he wasn't quite good enough to win, albeit lacking experience at the time. In terms of training on, Declaration of War is the one truly persuasive precedent for this sire being able to get top class older turf horses in Europe.
So there's my two penny worth. I want to oppose him on paper but on the track he has done so little wrong, and where are the alternatives? Blue De Vega's case seems stronger with every day that passes since he last ran. I think Stormy Antarctic is decent each way value if there's give in the ground due to his hold up style looking ideal for coming late off a strong pace.

From 28th April to 1st May anywhere between 3.6mm to 6mm of rain per day, and on 2nd May a whopping 14.7mm predicted.


Sorry but this far in advance the weather forecasters could barely tell you what day of the week it will be on May 2nd, let alone how much rain there might be. Besides which the race is on April 30th.

When will market reopen?

blue de vega money all gone just matched at 38 any news

Market suggest Emotionless is a goner.

Not a total major surprise given evidence of that gallop - the 2000G has come too soon - maybe the Epsom Derby perhaps.

Poor play from Appleby. Gave a positive report on a horse people said didn't look up to much. Some of us were waiting to hear about that gallop.  Doesn't look like much of a guineas.

Why do they have to mess around with the racing calendar? If the Guineas was run at its traditional time in January when Emotionless was flying it could have been a very different story imo...

as said earlier on this thred I was at the craven meeting all 3 days and watched all the gallops of the various classic hopefuls;i had much anticipation as I had £250 @16/1 EMOTIONLESS early January and to say it galloped/worked abysmally would be understating its performance I knew I had done me cash last week to be honest.out of the racecourse gallops last week ONLY BURATINO was out of the ordinary it quickened impressively and drew right away from its lead horse re emotionlessthey have put everyone away with its wellbeing homework etc as it is plainly obvious it will never be the same horse post the knee injury.

thanks gerard just matched at 150 now

Whats your prediction for the going on the Saturday mate?

cheers mate. i hope your right

2mm of rain expected on 1st May, and Ballydoyle will only run if ground was fast, according to trainer.

good to firm would make Minding a non runner...thats why shes left in i reckon.

Interesting comments from AOB this morning about AFB that he is all speed and may not be best at a mile and could go back in trip later in the season if does not get the mile. Looking at his DI of 2.64 he is not nailed on to get the trip and looking back over the last 56 years only 13 horses have won with a higher DI however he is all class and the 3 year old colts do not seem up to much this year so will probably still win easily. I was impressed with stormy Antarctic in the craven who looked to have thrived over the winter so have had a small bet each way

Taken the last of the 12/1 available on Massaat - 2pt win, 1pt place.

No real surprises apart from Ble De Vega still remaining in @ this stage.

blue de vega is rated as 50/50 by the trainer race coming to soon but did a gud bit of work at the weekend so no decision made yet