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HENNESSY GOLD CUP

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Replies: 203
By:
shockster
When: 24 Nov 15 09:31
Coneygree out of Hennessy. Sad
By:
jollyswagman
When: 24 Nov 15 09:50
barnsey he was 70s on sunday so i thought vl wasnt hennessy bound but he was down to 18 on monday so i thought he would turn up. however, in today's racing post mullins said he's still not sure and the john durkan is a possibility. on the gold cup thread several people have pointed out that as gigginstown have so many good horses he may end up ryanair bound. if so then the john durkan would seem the place to start. i really think he's a stayer though so want to see him in the 3mile plus races.
By:
ACStafford
When: 24 Nov 15 10:00
Shame about Coneygree. I layed out of most of my antepost bet thankfully, but I was looking forward to seeing him on Saturday. Time to look at the race from a different angle.
By:
barnesey
When: 24 Nov 15 10:13
Definitely think valseur is a stayer and genuinely believe they ran him in the wrong race at Cheltenham, I think he would of gone very close in the RSA......... Gigginstown do seem to have 5 for the gold cup at the moment but I think one will be in the Ryanair and maybe one will be saved to be cherry ripe for one of the other Spring festivals
By:
ACStafford
When: 24 Nov 15 10:22
Mullins has often stated that he believes VL to be an out-and-out stayer, so he will try to get him aimed towards the Gold Cup, but you may be right that Gigginstown will differ in their opinion with all the options they already have.
By:
p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y
When: 24 Nov 15 10:55
Valseur Lido would not have a prayer of beating Don Poli over 3m 2 1/2f around Cheltenham so why would even willie want him aimed there if he already has Vautour as well
By:
jasey
When: 24 Nov 15 11:36
Mullins has no say where VL runs and if giggis want 4 or 5 bulletts for the Gold Cup then thats what will happen.
I think Mullins rates Don Poli not in his top 3 of GC hopes.
I think VL is a underatted horse and hope he runs  at Newbury.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Nov 15 12:14
If he ran VL should be close to favourite imo - the fact he is 14/1+ makes me think he won't be coming over.
By:
tim6
When: 24 Nov 15 12:20
SDR now to be top weight how much will weights go up
By:
shockster
When: 24 Nov 15 12:25
Weights to rise 9lb.
By:
ACStafford
When: 24 Nov 15 14:18
Now that he's in the handicap, Theatre Guide looks well weighted. Last year's experiment of trying to turn him into a graded horse didn't work, but its helped in that he's slipped down the weights and he's 6lb lower in than he was when finishing third two years ago. Tizzard appears to be on good form too. Same owners as Cue Card. I wonder if they will jock up Brennan.
By:
shockster
When: 24 Nov 15 14:27
I agree ACS and have had a little bet even though I said above I was finished with this market.  Coneygree has changed the complexion of the race without turning up.Laugh
By:
Autocue
When: 24 Nov 15 14:39
Agree Coneygree connections have done Theatre Guide a favour putting him in the race on 10-2. Handicapper has also given him a chance. As well as that Hennessy form when a 6 year old, he's nearly a stone better off with Fox Appeal for their dead heat last year. Ground doesn't seem to be an issue and I'm hoping Paddy will be on board again.
Cautionary note: I thought my logic was good regarding Generous Ransom in the Paddy Power but he was dreadful. On a positive note I'd have more faith in Tizzard to get one ready than Gifford jnr.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 24 Nov 15 15:56
I really fancy Smad Place for this.

Fancied him for my life last year and thought he ran a pretty solid race considering it was his seasonal bow. King said afterwards that he felt the lack of a run had cost him, so good to see he has had a better prep this year. Hard to know just how good Fingal Bay still is, but he couldnt have been more impressive imo. King also has his string in much better form than this time last year and he gets in off the same mark.  Fell short of being a genuine Grade 1 contender last year but still did OK in those top races and this looks more his level.

Good luck.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 24 Nov 15 17:22
Best to stick to a speed horse who likes a galloping track.Horses that can only win in smallish  fields like Ascot and Cheltenham tend to flatten out in the straight.The surprise last year was that Many Clouds displayed, in the straight in his leg and stride action,signs of needing to dig deep [a hill finish],and not necessarily a galloping flat straight.Remarkable that he won at Cheltenham in December as well.
Anyway one on Saturday should have 5 good reasons for backing the winner.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 24 Nov 15 19:44
Disappointing to see the field shrinking day by day ,will be lucky to have 12 runners for this historic race at this rate.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 24 Nov 15 19:53
Not really surprised CONYGREE not running... updates on the horse have been inconsistent but very disappointing from a race perspective.

Bookies are absolutely clueless:

How Saphir De Rhue can be 3/1 in places is the biggest joke ever - with a 9lb rise??? He should be 3rd favourite behind Bobs Worth and Smad Place, weight puts him totally out of the picture... this horse is only a 6 year old considering last season he fell or unseated in two chases and then reverts to hurdles - does make him even more suspect in a strong paced race with the likes of Young Master in the field..

Anyone backing him at this stage (ante post) need their head testing...
By:
Benjy
When: 24 Nov 15 20:19
SDR should be winning this even off his current mark if he's going to be competitive in the GC. Considering inexperience not a viable bet at this stage though.

If in Doubt the one who I think could be well handicapped and will likely be my bet on the day.
By:
knot in wood
When: 24 Nov 15 20:30
hoping ned stark would run in the 2m 6f peter o'sullivan h'cap chase on the same card,but with conneygree coming out they could be tempted to run in the hennessy.

fancy there's a decent chase in him this season.
By:
Steamship
When: 24 Nov 15 20:33
I think If In Doubt will go well on Saturday and I like him early for the GN.

I agree about Ned Stark
By:
luckyme
When: 24 Nov 15 21:30
Ned Stark entered in two races plus the hennessy on saturday however with Coneycree out the place prize money in the hennessy is up for grabs.

Hennessy
Winner £113,900 2nd £42,740 3rd £21,400 4th £10,660 5th £5,360 6th £2,680

Peter O' Sullevan Chase
Winner £25,024 2nd £7,392 3rd £3,696 4th £1,848 5th £924 6th £464

Anything could grab 2nd or 3rd now the weights have gone up and possible soft/heavy ground.
By:
duffy
When: 24 Nov 15 22:35
Reallly like SDR, not bothered about his weight just think that we just haven't seen all of what he can do just yet, it's funny to think that he was fav. to beat coneygree twice last year without completing the course and at Kempton coneygree couldn't go quick enough for carraig mor who led him before coming down......what SDR did to carraig mor at Aintree gives just a little insight into what he has in his locker, reckon he'll be a big GC player after Saturday.
By:
Giddy
When: 24 Nov 15 23:07
Fancy Fingal Bay to run a big race. Finished legless behind Smad Place last time out and would expect him to strip a lot fitter and would assume this has always been his target
Also travelled well for a long way last year but dropped out tamely when he came under pressure for which burst blood vessels were to blame
Happy to take my chances e/w at the current odds
By:
luckyme
When: 25 Nov 15 08:38
1959     Kerstin     9     11-10     Stan Hayhurst       Verly Bewicke
1963     Mill House     6     12-00     Willie Robinson      Fulke Walwyn
1964     Arkle             7     12-07     Pat Taaffe       Tom Dreaper
1965     Arkle             8     12-07     Pat Taaffe       Tom Dreaper
1981     Diamond Edge     10     11-10     Bill Smith       Fulke Walwyn
2005     Trabolgan       7     11-12     N J Henderson       M A Fitzgerald
2007     Denman (IRE)     7     11-12     P F Nicholls       S Thomas   
2009     Denman (IRE)     9     11-12     P F Nicholls       R Walsh

Only 6 horses have carried 11-10 since 1959. Arkle (twice, Denman (twice) and Mill house 6yr old 12st, I know its not a great field but is SDR up there with them and at 3/1 ?.
By:
duffy
When: 25 Nov 15 13:19
I don't think it is a very deep race, BW and SP are 2nd and 3rd favs. in the betting, bob's is being priced up on a hurdles run that people are assuming means he's back to his chase best....I don't get that logic at all and SP?? well how many years have we been talking about him.

SDR, is that classy novice with bags of potential that you want for this race, I accept that you can argue that he's weighted as if he's already done it but as I say, the race is packed full of exposed horses for the most part that we know all about, that I think he can give the weight too...valseur lido would be the one to worry about most because he's also your typical classy novice with bags of improvement potential in him.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Nov 15 13:25
and SP?? well how many years have we been talking about him

Er, not many! Last season was his first out of novice company and he only had four runs. The Hennessy, The Cotswold Chase, The Gold Cup and the Betfred Bowl at Aintree. He wasnt disgraced in any of those imo so a bit early to be writing him off!
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Nov 15 13:26
I'd agree its not a very deep renewal though, which is why I fancy SP Grin
By:
duffy
When: 25 Nov 15 13:58
Jeez...hasn't he been around longer than that...he must have been hurdling for about 8 years, that's where I'm getting mixed upGrin, anyhow I think we know how good he is and that is in that group of admirable horses that run their race but are below top class, perhaps even a couple of levels below...I perhaps have SDR on too high of a pedastool but he's got to be able to give him 8lbs and a right old thumping if he's anywhere near as good as I hope he is.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Nov 15 14:14
Depends how high a pedastool even is... sounds a bit lower to me Mischief

Yeah point taken about his hurdling. I might be wrong, but I dont think we have seen the best of him yet and think this might be his season. But can see your point, if SDR is a genuine GC contender and a top class horse, 8lb isnt insurmountable. I just think he's a poor price. But best of luck
By:
shockster
When: 25 Nov 15 14:44
The race does have a very exposed look to it compared to most years.  SDR is a 2nd season chaser but handicapped on hurdle rating. I'd be impressed if he carried this off under top weight.  Valseur Lido 2nd season chaser looks like missing the race looking at his Betfair price. Ned Stark 2nd season chaser but already ran in 4 handicap chases. The Young Master 2nd season chaser but already ran in 3 Hcp Chases. If In Doubt 2nd season chaser ran in 2 Hcps and Splash of Ginger 2nd season chaser and ran in 4 Hcp chases.

So only SDR has not run in a HCP. If you fancy him fair enough.  The rest you need a reason on why they'll improve? 

Going down the list.

Druids Nephew. Much higher in the weights and very big price on Betfair. Will he run

Houblon Des Obeaux ran a cracker last year and likes soft

Smad Place has course wins and on Heavy and had a prep this year.

Bobs Worth massively well in if anywhere near his best.

Fox Appeal is very consistent but handicapper has him.

The Young Master is only 6 but Hcpr may have him.

Splash Of Ginger is unexposed at the trip and won a Betfair hurdle here. Big price if you think he'll stay.

If In Doubt is one of the least exposed but needed first runs last year. Tough ask first run of the season

Ballycasey was always thought highly of, but not delivered. Betfair price suggests not coming.

First Lieutenant is another massively well in on old form but soft ground is a big negative. Mouse Morris does say he has seen the old sparkle.

Cloudy Too is totally exposed and had terrible prep run.

Fingal Bay is well in on hurdle form but doesn't look as good a chaser. Could surprise?

Benbens is on a career high mark after winning a veterans chase and now trys the Hennessy.

Al Co is still on a higher mark than when he won Scottish National. Plenty to do first time out.

Ned Stark is one of the least exposed and has had a prep. Maybe but not sure he's classy enough.

Urano is fully exposed and struggled to win over the summer.

Theatre Guide has a great weight and has been placed in the race previously. Chances.


There you have my thoughts.

I've backed Bobs 16/1 EW
FL at 70 but laid a bit off
Theatre Guide at 50 but laid a bit off
Fox Appeal at 350.

Good luck
By:
shockster
When: 25 Nov 15 14:50
Apologies.

I missed off The Giant Bolster but he's too high in the weights and hates soft.
By:
luckyme
When: 25 Nov 15 15:18
Shockster,
on his blog on paddipower site ruby says 2don't forget URANO AT 33s.
By:
shockster
When: 25 Nov 15 15:24
Well Urano has run in 5 Hcps since May and won none of them.  He is on his highest ever mark so I'll be surprised big time if he can win a Hennessy.
By:
shockster
When: 25 Nov 15 15:25
As expected Valseur Lido now a non runner.
By:
The RealDeal
When: 25 Nov 15 19:43
Do we think it's going to be Soft on Saturday?

Good to Soft, Soft in places this afters.
By:
the bloob
When: 25 Nov 15 19:50
I like Theatre Guide for this, glad I took some 33/1 yesterday as now in to 25/1. I can see there being a few more withdrawals so 4 places antepost is a decent e/w bet
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 25 Nov 15 20:16
Been moist all week with no wind at all, will be closer to soft than good to soft imo.
By:
John.W.Henry.
When: 25 Nov 15 20:44
The stick readings are extremely low. 5 i think for the chase course and just 4 for the hurdle course which is historically very low ( much lower than last seasons slugfest )
By:
John.W.Henry.
When: 25 Nov 15 20:46
You will need a slugger if those reading prove to be correct. I cannot see it improving maybe a slight deterioration. Soft heavy ground stayers to the fore. Possibly lighter weighted runners in the distance races. Proven form at the trip and further on soft or heavy ground will be a big advantage
By:
ACStafford
When: 25 Nov 15 22:07
Excellent summary shockster. I agree with the vast majority of what you say there. As I've said earlier I consider Theatre Guide to be overpriced, even after being cut over the last 24 hours.

After seeing those going stick figures and with bits of rain forecast over the next few days, I accept it will probably be soft ground now. Houblon Des Obeaux will be my other bet off 1lb lower than last year. If In Doubt is interesting but short enough now, so I'd consider Smad Place the best value of the market leaders.
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