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These 1179 comments are related to the topic:
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
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Replies: 1,179
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Agreed, Headmaster, in a word, bollocks
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final furlong Arc podcast - https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-preview-the-american-angle-on-interference-rules
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ATR friday focus, with Arc preview - http://rhaenys.simplestream.com/10/catchuptv/30/766978_2.mp4
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Solemia, Marienbard, Urban Sea, Subotica, Carroll House and Tony Bin
Headmaster, going back to that list of older horses, I don't know if you'd agree but I'd say Solemia's improved form had more to do with the bad ground than anything, as she never showed form as good before or after. Marienbard, Urban Sea, Carroll House and Tony Bin were all going there on the back of a win or multiple wins. It's possible that some of their form had been underrated beforehand but it's also generally accepted that a horse is more likely to improve after a win. Largely because a horse that's won hasn't necessarily had its limitations exposed and may be capable of better. The only one that doesn't fit the bill is Subotica but that was also bad ground. For me, this year there aren't any older horses that might have underrated recent form or that look potentially capable of better. Would you say there are any? |
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a horse is more likely to improve after a win
I mean more likely to improve after a win than being beaten, not that it should improve just because it's won. |
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"We expected a high draw and we got one", said Gosden.
What does this comment mean? Just an irrational pessimism on Gosden's part or a suggestion of unfair play? Maybe I've had my head in the sand over the years but I'm still unaware of the exact circumstances of the Arc draw. Does anybody on here know exactly how it's done and why it would lead to any suggestion of unfair play? And if so why is this allowed to carry on? |
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My wild guess at the finishing order
fin name 1 Erupt 2 Flintshire 3 New Bay 4 Golden Horn 5 Treve 6 Eagle Top 7 Frine 8 Shahah 9 Tapestry 10 Dolniya 11 Free Eagle 12 Manatee 13 Spiritjim 14 Found 15 Siljan'S Saga 16 Prince Gibraltar 17 Meleagros 18 Silverwave |
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Another Eagle Top fan signing in..matbe excuses are not valid..but he hasnt had many races in which he could show his optimum form in..ie 12f decent ground, Cover and hopefully, not a crawl
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rubbish figgis you can watch it on you tube or at least you can last year, this shows how it is done
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Thanks, harry, didn't know if I'd seen it once on RUK or if I was mixed up with some other race. Another conspiracy theory to confine to the bin then, although I'm sure it will still get trotted out
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For me, this year there aren't any older horses that might have underrated recent form or that look potentially capable of better. Would you say there are any?
I am almost expecting Eagle Top to post a PB on Sunday Figgis. Where exactly that slots him in I wouldn't know! I'd definitely say he might be underrated and/or have the potential to be capable of better. He's had legitimate excuses for many of his defeats and is lightly raced for an elder. One who isn't lightly raced is Frine. She's not been with Carlos that long and back down to a (hopefully strongly-run) 12f on decent ground with Peslier on board may well see her step it up. Not suggesting she's about to win an Arc by 5 lengths but she's also a good winner for me win and place. |
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(and Tapestry probably has first call on the 'forgotten horse' tag too)
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shocker of a draw but boy Golden Horn will really have his ground !
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If it's 'French' Good on Sat, and no rain then it would surely be touching our G/F on Sunday .. ?
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ffs, I just been in the back garden(brum)still cut in the ground,any rain will turn it quickly
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Tough draw for Golden Horn (14/18)
 if the ground is gd or quicker come Sun.Stats are very much in favour of a low stall in these conditions. Winner will come from a single digit stall on that basis. Treve or New Bay ?? |
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Sandown
'Treve has yet to win a race in a very fast paced race. Her 2 Arc wins were in slow times. The 2013 win was the slowest in 25 years, some 23 lbs below the average rating and a whopping 38 lbs below Peintre Celebre. Last year ranks 20th 11 lbs below the average.' Interested to know what kind of time Treve did when she beat Flintshire in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud. It looked a good gallop but they did not seem to follow close to the pacemaker however it did seem to take Treve a while to overhaul Flintshire who won comfortably enough in the end confirming the Arc form. Looks like similar ground to what they may race on Sunday |
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On my rating of the time it was 9lbs below Treve's best, as you said they didn't really go after the pacemaker that day.
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GH well overrated..good performance in the Emerald Isle mon cul..has regressed since the summer
Treve has been dissed imho..ppl trying to pick holes in her form..absolute stud(yeah,i know she's a mare..generic term in this PC,metrosexual age) be awesome to see her blitz in encore une fois to make history NB massive danger..v impressive in the Niel looks a well sub standard field if you take the 3 out Vive le Quebec livre |
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hills going 6/4 treve 9am in the shops today apparently if anyones interested
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no doubt max bet a tenner
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Gave me a ton @ 6/4.
"given" nice lowish draw (& her pacemaker) & they watered the track yesterday to make it gd/gs in pls. So safe to say they are trying to give her every poss help to win it again  |
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http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12255524&category=0
No watering, say officials The going at Longchamp was described as good on Saturday morning and officials at the course have dismissed suggestions the course was watered on Friday. Trainer John Gosden, who saddles Golden Horn and Eagle Top in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, had said he was "rather surprised" to hear that watering had taken place in Paris at around 5pm on Friday. However, Christian Delporte, racecourse director at Longchamp, said no such thing had taken place. He said on Saturday: "I can assure everyone there was no watering here yesterday. The last time I put any water down was 5mm on September 11. We had 60mm of rain in the days that followed so there has been no need." |
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Racing UK telling lies then??
Who 2 believe?? RUK or The French??  |
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Sounds like JG is getting his excuses in early, first seeming to suggest the draw is **** and now making out the Frenchies are watering the track!! JG is normally one who doesn't mind a good dose of water chucked on the track... when it suits him, obviously!
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Rig ged! Very odd.
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Lets see how the track rides 2day, that will tell us more
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What is it with Mark Johnson, a regular presenter for live French racing coverage, and Racinguk repeating that the ground has been watered in direct contrast to RP statement from Longchamp racing director that none has taken place? Kin continuity we have to put up with.
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What is the going in Longchamp?
13:30 03/10/15: Prix Chaudenay time 189.36 secs Today's race was the 2nd fastest in those 17 years, 1999-2015. Average incl 2015 was 198.91 secs. I have the time for the last 17 years (before that the race was run in May at a different track) |
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Either the horse was fast, or the track was fast.
I'll post more as the other races come in. |
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Correction: 2015 was the fastest Prix Chaudenay in the last 17 years.
 2015 189.36; 2006 189.80; 2008 190.70; 2014 190.86 |
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Races over this kind of distance are less reliable as pointers as they are usually run at a less than true pace and there can be all kinds of rail movements involved. Also the Prix Chaudenay is run on the 'moyenne' course, not the 'grande'. Still, it's obvious that the ground is no slower than good and more likely on the quick side.
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I didn't know that.
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Willy Buick saying it's near enough Good to Firm.
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The 2 courses are largely run on the same parts of the track but there are often different going allowances needed if separate parts are riding a bit faster or because of different rail movements. Not usually a huge difference though and looking at the track I'd say fast side of good looks about right, probably borderline good to firm, didn't look what I'd call very fast ground.
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A couple of ordinary times on the 'grande' course but the pace was moderate in both races. In these circumstances we can't yet say precisely how fast it is, just how slow it isn't, and it obviously isn't any slower than the fast side of good.
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i think a big upset is in the offing . ground is too fast for treve , gh too many runs , new bay needs slow ground , found would go close but garbage draw , im going for erupt , right draw , right profile laid out for this and excellent price gl .
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i think a big upset is in the offing . ground is too fast for treve , gh too many runs , new bay needs slow ground , found would go close but garbage draw , im going for erupt , right draw , right profile laid out for this and excellent price gl .
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Ground was on the fast side of gd last yr. Looks like gd ground this yr.
She will be fine imo. |
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Last year's time was one of the fastest Arcs ever. Some on here believe that race was even run at a false pace. No reason to think it'll inconvenience at all. Obviously received wisdom is that GH needs it fast - even so he's not in Treve's class.
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