We're definitely not idiots Kincsem.  Well you're definitely not anyway - that has been proved many times over on this thread alone.

The case for Eagle Top (as a value bet at the prices anyway), is that he was, for a long time, the Gosden No.1 for the King George.  In the event, despite underfoot conditions potentially not really suiting, he ran a cracker, some may even suggest he was the moral winner.

For a 4yo he is lightly raced and we may not have seen the best of him.  Lto was a disaster but the ground at Newbury was horrid that day and I'm putting a line through it.  In fact you can say we should forget a number of his runs.....Newbury last time out, Snow Sky and Smullen had them in their pockets in the Hardwicke, Sandown he wasn't fit, 2015 King George given too much to do.

I'm pretty sure a good ground Arc,  a nice draw, a mid-div position and a well-timed challenge will see Eagle Top post a PB on Sunday.

Any horse that gets nutted in that season's King George shouldn't really be 150+ for the Arc should it?  With all the Golden Horn/Jack Hobbs talk plus the Newbury abomination it does feel slightly as though Eagle Top has gone under the radar.

I quite like the fact he wasn't even entered in the Cumberland Lodge this Saturday either.  very winnable and, on paper, a perfect steeping stone after of Newbury.  But the big man's pointed him toward Longchamp and I think we should take the hint.

The Gosden No.1 for the King George? Before or after he pulled out Golden Horn....... and to be fair its difficult to know good a race the king George was Postponed has won since although in a race he should have been winning at 11/10 and the 3rd and 4th have massively underperformed. You are getting a price but to link it so closely to a KG 2nd in probably the worst KG in living memory is being generous to Eagle top. He will need to run 10 pounds better than he has ever run to win the race, even to be in the top 5 i would imagine he will need a career best

Headmaster, you don't seem to be a hype bandwagon type.
This race has a high random factor.  The draw will make a difference.   Any Group 1 or 2 winner with form at 12f+ is worth a look.
Evens before the draw for a 5yo conceding weight to Derby winners in an 18+ runner race with a big draw bias is crazy.

They have released a song about the nag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZWWNr4sKIM

Now that 'Golden Horn' has been supplemented for the 'Arc' will 'Found' and/or 'Free Eagle' be rerouted to the Champion Stakes?; it is also Gp1, but much less competitive especially with the probable 'fav', 'Jack Hobbs' coming down in distance - it must be tempting for connections of both I imagine.

Eagle Top is some value when compared to some of those shorter than him, like New Bay and Found, who have worse form in the book. The trouble is he lacks a decent turn of foot, his best run as a 3yo was at Royal Ascot where there was a bit of a pace collapse in front of him. He's unlikely to get that here but could make the places although I'd have Flintshire ahead of him.

Harry, well there's a range and the rest are not even close to the bottom of that range to me, apart from Flintshire if he repeated last year's effort. I'd say New Bay is still an unknown quantity, although I think he will have to be better than Fabre's usual standard of Arc winner to beat an on form Treve, more like Peintre Celebre than Carnegie. The Lockinge was in the low end of my Gp1 figures. The Queen Anne wasn't run at a fast overall pace, but Solow has posted Gp1 figures before.

I agree with most of that, harry, apart from Free Eagle. I thought he was a reasonable standard Gp1 3yo, I backed him in last year's Champion Stakes, where he was beaten fair and square imo despite the ground. I just think 3yos need to improve from 3 to 4 at least in line with wfa. After backing The Grey Gatsby in the Eclipse I came to the conclusion he hadn't trained on and I think his subsequent runs have proved that. Just a pity I didn't suss it before the Eclipse . I'm still not convinced Free Eagle has trained on either, especially as I thought TGG would've beaten him in the POW. He was running well last time until hampered but I'm not sure it was a race that proved much, the time was ordinary and I don't rate the form.

suspect treve will win by 2l with flintshire and tapestry fighting out for second.

suspect treve will win by 2l with flintshire and tapestry fighting out for second

That's my idea of the first 2, same as last year, no idea who I'd have 3rd really.

Well Free Eagle has no chance lol  - reason being that Sky Bet tipping disaster "Alex Hammond" has just put the horse up as her selection EW.

She has to be the 2nd biggest loser in the racing tipsters, just behind the buffoon calling him self the "Newsboy" from the Daily Mirror - Dave Yates

I have a good final time performance for last year's race, nothing exceptional but decent and her 3lbs allowance gives that a boost. In my view she'd be beaten if there was a horse as good as, say, Dylan Thomas in the field but this has to be the weakest year for older middle distance horses I've seen for a while. For me this year's King George form wouldn't even be good enough for 3rd spot in an average year. I also think that really fast run Arcs are in the minority and that's why a turn of foot is often more decisive in this race than some others.

NB. I am talking about performances not bare times in case you thought i was.

Given how keen she usually is she may be even better with a faster pace.

Last year ranks 20th 11 lbs below the average.

Is this correct? Only I can immediately think of the Sea The Stars, Zarkava, Solemia and Rail Link races as ones that threw up low-ish figures.

Is this correct?

I have had to use Top Speed figures to get the 25 years record, so on their figures yes it is.

She may have been lucky somewhat to win her 2 Arcs when there were no top class 3 yr olds at the 12f running against her

I don't think she's outstanding in the times she can run by any means but it'll take a good one to beat her. The older horses just don't look capable and one of them will have to run above its usual ability to beat her. Obviously you can never say a 3yo is fully exposed but everything apart from Golden Horn and New Bay has shown limitations. Golden Horn would be a worthy winner and it would be a tremendous achievement if he can retain his form for this but I'll let him win without my cash as I usually find it pays to avoid runners given this kind of prep.

Could New Bay be as good as Golden Horn? Possibly, but one of the reasons I respect Fabre is because he's managed to win this race by prepping his runners perfectly to peak on the big day, runners who in my view weren't exactly great horses on the whole, with the exception of the Peintre Celebre win, but they peaked on the big day either against weakish fields or against better horses who ran flat.

Possibly, but one of the reasons I respect Fabre is because he's managed to win this race by prepping his runners perfectly to peak on the big day

7 winners of the Arc in 27 years.One in every 4 Arcs. One trainer. That's some record so he knows what he has to do to win the race. I don't it matters one jot if perhaps his only really top class horse was Peintre Celebre. He himself agrees with that. New Bay will be prepped to run to his max, you can be sure of that. The horse will improve - by how much we will find out soon enough.

I don't it matters one jot if perhaps his only really top class horse was Peintre Celebre

It does if there is another top class horse in the race. Personally I wouldn't have any of his other winners against Treve, even Hurricane Run, you might differ.

*fare poorly

I think I can say that its not just the 5 yr stat that gives me doubts about the Treve. I do accept that the stats are the backgound and each case has to be taken on its merits. Eventually it all boils down to whether i thin I have any kind of edge over the market. At evens there really is no juice in it. We can back evens chances every day. There are some where i really do feel that that price is far too big. I put up Time Test as an example of that. I'm putting up Trev as an example of the opposite. Neither winning or losing proves anything but over-time we have to live by ourt judgement. Opposing awhat I consider to be a poor price favourite who I think should be well odds against is no big deal.