Sandown, ok, thanks for the reply and I approximately agree with how you price GH on the different ground scenarios.

We all have our favourite races and we all have different opinions of what constitutes the 'best' of anything so that is a pointless debate that I won't get into. The Arc is the 'best' 12f race in your opinion, fair enough. However in view of your earlier opinion on the effect of the draw and it having even more importance on faster ground then doesn't that mean therefore that most Arc winners, particularly those on faster ground, are slightly overrated, as the draw usually plays very little part in the way handicappers assess the results? Does this sit well with you for a race that is supposed to be the 'best'?

The way a race is rated doesn't really matter that much imo

Again, fair enough. I didn't pose my question properly as along with the way winners are rated I also meant do you think a race that is supposed to be the best should be significantly (in your view) influenced by numbers out of a hat?

On the draw I also think it's absurd the way the do it ,I would give previous years winner first pick ,followed by top 3yo races like Derby ect and go on prize munee or ratings ,followed by grp1 races and finishing positions in previous years race ect ect but a random draw for such an important race is not right .Fastest qualifiers in trials should also get preference over a horse who has little in the book .Would also try and get last years winner to turn up and give the race form some longevity

Thinking again about GH on soft ground, its very hard looking back to say beforehand just how badly a horse might run. Camelot in 2012 ran 22 lbs below PB, St Nicholas Abbey ran 23 lbs below Workforce ran 16 lbs below best PB in 2011Galikova 13 lbs below in the same race in the same race.Sixties Icn ran 13 lbs below in 2006. If horses run below their best, they may well fade dramatically at the end. If GH has had enough he probably wouldn't come within 10 lb of his best. But how do we know that beforehand. Its dangerous to write any horse right off.

I do not think some people quite understand what it would mean to Mr Magnier if Sheikh Mohammed’s jumped up Darley stallion Dubawi knocked Galileo, the world’s foremost stallion, off the top spot in the prestigious blue ribbon European sires' championship. As of today there is just £23,497 between the leading stallion Dubawi and the long reigning champion Galileo. Over the past month or so, and certainly the last few weekends, Mr Magnier has clawed back a monumental deficit by throwing every Galileo under the sun at all the Group races of value. Significantly, Coolmore have a shed load of regally bred Galileo juveniles to call on in the forthcoming 2yo championship events in relation to Dubawi and Darley, they even have ten or so Galileo juveniles entered in the £500,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy.

However, since the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe  is the richest race in Europe, and 3x more valuable than any other championship race left this season, it will have a crucial impact,  even if just playing for place money behind Treve, as will winning the Champion Stakes, the 2nd most valuable. From the perspective of the Coolmore breeding empire trying to stop the Darley thoroughbred breeding operation, it has appeared in recent weeks that Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe all evolves around Galileo’s filly Found and Dubawi’s representatives from the classic generation in New Bay and possibly Erupt, and the older horse Postponed, with the Galileo colts, Bondi Beach and Order Of St George (and Highland Reel) quarantined before supposedly leaving for the Melbourne Spring Carnival. Surely one can see this leaves Mr Magnier with the scantiest of hand in the Arc, given his sole play thus far is a doubtful stayer.

However, it was a certainty that Mr Magnier would shrewdly refrain from letting the Darley entourage know his true intentions until the confirmation of entry and supplementary stage on the 1st October. At the first forfeit stage this morning (Tues 28th), Darley openly scratched Postponed their one trump card highlighting total tomfoolery, a play Mr Magnier had to wait and see to believe. At the same time he played Tapestry, his decent older filly alongside his already known card in Found. What might have gone unnoticed is that John Oxx’s Sea Moon also stood his ground. When you gather that he is owned by Mr Magniers’s associate, Aussie magnet Lloyd J. Williams, does that set off any alarm bells? Now tomorrow at the 2nd forfeit stage I doubt there will be a significant incident, however, at just after 11.30am CET on Thursday the noble 3yo colt Order of St George will be supplemented (and possibly even Bondi Beach now we know now of Sea Moon’s likely participation) and entered into an already maximum size field (20). Matters not as Handicap French Galop will scrub those rated lower than him. Later in the day will come news that Order of St George, owned in partnership by Mr Magnier and Lloyd J. Williams, will be ridden by Ryan Moore.
 
The name of the aforementioned colt from Ballydoyle is also quite fitting in this instance. The Sacred Military Constantinian Order of Saint George is a Roman Catholic order of chivalry, an Equestrian Order dating back to the Emperor Constantine and one of the oldest Orders of Knighthood. It has the motto In Hoc Signo Vinces ("in this sign you will conquer"); conquer in this case means to finish in front of the Dubawi’s in the richest race in Europe on the first Sunday in October.  Winning the Epsom Derby and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe may be quite something, but these bear no comparison to the real blue ribbon, the title of leading sire in Europe. It belongs to the Coolmore lineages, human and equine, entrusted and overseen by the exceptional Mr Magnier. His shining Knight Order of St George  will shortly be upon us.

Oppenheimer had Golden Horn in the sales as a yearling I believe, he mostly keeps the fillies and sells the colts.

I like it Madhu.

Meanwhile, back in reality, Free Eagle reported to be running.


And btw Madhya, something you've repeatedly said on here that is blatantly false, there is no replica of Longchamp at Ballydoyle - I can't believe people have actually backed OSG :/

Chad Collins

Friend of mine works near the track, she posted me a picture yesterday that looked like the track being watered.  Will post the photo as soon as it is approved...

Time for you to come forward again Chad. Who is telling porkies..... your friend or France Gallop?

Yowsa, didn't think a picture would cause an international incident.  If FG say it is Auteil, fair enough.  My friend out there is NOT a horse racing fan, but saw a racecourse on the BdB being watered and sent it to me!

So, I'd say it was a mistake, but a pretty easy one to make.  Only presented as info that folk might be interested in, and couched in pretty equivocal terms, I thought.

There will be at least 3 supps tomorrow - Golden Horn, Shahah and Spiritjim

Weather and Ground Report
FRENCH GROUND AND WEATHER
Updated - 30 September 2015


Disclaimer: We are no longer taking the responsibility for the accuracy of the ground reports from France. What we put up on this website is what we are told the ground conditions are. We will put officially beside the status if it comes from France Galop or the racecourse itself and it is the responsibility of the trainer to make further inquiries from a different source if they believe that the reports underneath are inaccurate.

*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************


The ground at LONGCHAMP is officially GOOD TO SOFT (30th September)  We have been informed that Longchamp expect the ground to be Good at the weekend. They have stated that they will not water

For up to date weather reports please click on the links below:

I really hope they don't water and that is pocket talking

put the corn out chad and the chickens will come pecking!!

Anyway, on the arc itself Dolniya and Erupt EW for me!

Almost certainly the conditions and more support for Golden Horn. I still find it odd in these supposedly more enlightened times how a horse can gain a reputation for requiring specific ground conditions despite the overwhelming evidence that suggests otherwise. Sometimes it's just because of a comment from the trainer, which is often just a scapegoat excuse for a poor run. Anyone who believes Treve needs cut is conveniently ignoring her Prix De Diane win a couple of years ago.

I've already just said there has been more support for GH on account of the ground, but there still remains a belief that good ground or quicker will lessen Treve's anyway, there has been no drift on New Bay.

whilst at the same time criticising those who think Treve is better on soft

Yes, why is she better on soft then?

Yes, why is she better on soft then?

Not so sure she is but she is also less of a risk on soft. Trainer reported at the time that her hooves affected her at Ascot and she has had back problems. Trainer also reported that new shoes had solved the first problem. That leaves the back issue. If she feels it then she may run below her best. Can't see that the ground will be too firm for her however, so don't think it is an issue in any event. If the ground rides good on Sunday then I suppose that GH's supporters will get stuck in.

Figgis. Its an opinions game... there are no such things as cold and hard facts. As Headmaster points out, one run a couple of years ago doesn't conclusively prove that she is just as good on better ground.

You're entitled to your opinion that ground makes no odds to her, and you may well be right. But its a bit daft to mock others with differing opinions to your own.