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** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
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Replies: 1,179
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Simply put - the turn of pace she showed in the Boussac was phenomenal, hands-and-heels romp from the top-class Ervedya. Do the maths, how many 2yos had that speed
It has already been stated, the Boussac was an early crawl, not just for a furlong or so as has tried to be claimed, but for more than half the race. The slower that horses travel early, the quicker they can go at the finish. The final time of the Boussac was comparatively poor no matter who is doing the comparisons. Even for those who like to project ratings for fast late fractions it wouldn't be possible to rate it a truly great performance. She's had five runs since the Boussac but shown nothing like that finishing speed since. I like someone who can nail their colours to the mast but a statement like "Found at the top of her game has the finishing speed to win any race" is based on no evidence at all. It suggests last year's Boussac was as good as the best Gp1s we've ever seen, it quite clearly wasn't. |
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lol, compare her to the second. et fin.
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Golden Horn cut again for Arc after dry forecast
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12142924&category=0 The going is being described as soft at the moment. The description could be right but past history suggests it is more likely to be closer to what we'd call good to soft. If the forecast is right we could even get proper good ground by Sunday. Only guesswork but if that was the case then Flintshire would be a big price for a place. I couldn't fancy him to win unless Treve and maybe one or two others don't run to form but while most people are concentrating on the runners with a sexier profile it would be no surprise to see him reaching a place again, as Youmzain did a few years ago. |
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I gave a projected rating of 121 for the Boussac which was a considerable upgrading based on the final time rating.That is good enough to consider her for the fillies classics this year but not good enough at that stage to pencil her in as an Arc winner.
She showed real promise in the Irish Champion to suggest that she can improve again and as with Free Eagle I have her on-side for the Arc. I have around 12.0 with a run which makes her a value bet at current odds but I agree with Figgis that to have a very strong opinion of her chance requires a very rosy view of the current form.She has not repeated that Boussac finishing burst but having proving that she is capable of doing it, she could easily repeat. Good luck if you have her as a strong bet, hopefully each way. I am surprised that she is as big as she is however. Why aren't any of the stable backing her yet? |
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Sandown,
with the stakes they play ? No liquidity - e.g. Order of St. George in the Irish Leger - obvious that he was going to the Curragh as he was the only other viable entry (apart from fast ground Kingfisher) What happened - 3/1 it stayed all the way until 30 mins before the race when he went off 5/4 |
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(and ofc there's been a lot of money for her already, she touched 400/1 on here) so I'd say stable staff are on at bigger prices, AO'B made it very clear she was Arc-bound after her comeback at which point she was in the region of 40/1, so I'd say people are sitting pretty happy.
As for 'the lads' they don't come til late |
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Btw, you might enjoy, last year's Arc coverage - Claire Balding asked Michael Tabor about Gleneagles and Found, and he was very positive on them.
Then she asked him would he have a 'double' - he nearly split his sides, "You think someone would lay me a double" ... it was not long after he acquired VC. |
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I sent an e-mail to the Racing Post a few minutes ago.
____________________________________________________________________________________ Hello, WRONG TIME FOR ARC WINNER – BY TEN SECONDS Racingpost.com shows the winning time of Tony Bin in the 1988 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe as 2:37.30. That time is incorrect. The correct time is 2:27.30. My evidence (1) The Grand History Of The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe by Arthur Fitzgerald book gives the time as 2:27.30 (page 310) (2) The Raceform Flat Annual 1988 gives the time as 2:27.30 (page 1264, race 3230a) (3) Timeform Racehorses of 1988 incorrectly give the time as 2:37.30 (page 974) The going is given as firm, or in Timeform as good/firm. I fixed the Wikipedia page to show the correct time of 2:27.30. The wrong time of 2:37.30 would be a heavy ground time e.g Solemia in 2012 ran 2:37.68 on heavy. Arc weekend races from 1980 to 2014 (35 years) show the Tony Bin 2:37.30 time to be well out of line with the other races, Prix Daniel Wildenstein; Prix De Royallieu; Prix Dollar; Prix De La Foret; Prix De L’Abbaye; Prix De L’Opera; Prix Du Cadran; Prix Marcel Boussac. Those Arc weekend races in 1988 rank 14th fastest of the 35 years, logical given the firm or good/firm ground.. A Tony Bin time of 2:27.30 is 10th fastest Arc in the 35 years. A Tony Bin time of 2:37.30 puts him 30th fastest of the 35 years, a very slow time on firm ground, and wrong. Best regards ____________________________________________________________________________________ I wanted to see how Arc winner times ranked 1980 to 2014, and how the other eight Arc weekend races ranked 1980 to 2014. An example helps 1988 Prix Daniel Wildenstein 9th fastest 1988 Prix De Royallieu 15th fastest 1988 Prix Dollar 11th 1988 Prix De La Fore 26th 1988 Prix De L’Abbaye 16th 1988 PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE 10th (if Tony Bin time is 2:27.30, and it is) 1988 Prix De L’Opera 4th 1988 Prix Du Cadran 21st 1988 Prix Marcel Boussac 23rd 1988 Overall 14th fastest Arc weekend races When Tony Bin's 1988 time was 30th fastest Arc time from 1980 to 2014 I knew it was wrong. This exercise helped to highlight some errors in my group winners database. The authorities often changed race distances and time of year - obvious when you line up the races and rank the times 1 to 35. |
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I am surprised that she is as big as she is however. Why aren't any of the stable backing her yet?
Sandown i disagree with this - as i actually think she is a 16's chance on all known form... she only found the one pace after being kept out of the heat of the race in the irish champion, i think the rider actually through plenty at her however she could just find the one pace, i'd put this down to her not being that good and she actually ran a career best in that race...her run against just a middling stakes horse at the curragh answered who himself was returning from a lay off and was giving plenty of weight was just mediocre form...she has her chance but it is an outside chance imo and i still think if she is ever to get 1m4f it will be against inferior opposition and against her own sex and not what she will face here |
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ffs- Then she asked him would he have a 'double' - he nearly split his sides, "You think someone would lay me a double" ...
Classic mate. Nice one. |
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Anyone got a view?
No French-trained 3yo colt has won the race for 9years No French-trained 3yo colt has finished in the first two in the Arc since Rail Link won in 2006. How much is being a 3yo French-trained colt against New Bay winning? Madhu, further to this, for a 16 year period between 1971 and 1986 there wasn't even one French trained 3yo colt winner of the Arc. Throughout the whole of the 70s and 80s there were only two winners in that category. On the face of it this seems an extraordinarily low strike rate and might suggest to some that they were at an inherent disadvantage. However, between 1994 and 2006 they score 9 from 13 victories, an impressive tally, and at that time I remember the exact opposite theory being put forward. This just goes to show the folly of drawing firm conclusions from small sample sizes without weighing up all the other contributing factors. Of course there are also problems of using a huge sample size where one race is concerned, as it's very questionable whether all the elements that contributed to results many years ago are still of relevance to today's races. Best to make your own mind up I'd say after weighing up all the evidence, where the most important considerations have to be the ability of the runners involved and the preparation they've had. |
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Btw, and jmo, but I don't think Free Eagle will run - the owner didn't seem keen when asked, mostly in the mind it was pointless taking on Treve.
As a stallion in the making he needs another Group1 and the Champion Stakes is emminently more winnable. |
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Figgis-
I agree statistics are what they are, just statistics but to my reckoning they are in the main more useful if they cover a time of 10 years period until contemporary times. Your assertion - “as it's very questionable whether all the elements that contributed to results many years ago are still of relevance to today's races” – I agree with, but the fact that no French-trained 3yo colt has won the race for 9 years and no French-trained 3yo colt has finished in the first two in the Arc since Rail Link won in 2006 is significant considering it is a kin French Championsip race and their most valuable. This will be a perfect stat for those members of the Wise Nodder’s After the Event Club, were New Bay to be beaten, certainly more so in the eventuality of the mare disappointing and him still not being able to win. |
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I have noticed that since 1954 12 winners of the Prix Niel (three year olds) have gone on to win the Arc. This is more than a 20% success rate since some of them didn't run in the Arc.
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This is from 1987 to 2009
Prix Niel 1987 Trempolino (Won Arc) 1988 Fijar Tango (7th Arc) 1989 Golden Pheasant (14th Arc) 1990 Epervier Bleu (2nd Arc) 1991 Subotica (Missed Arc won 1992 Arc) 1992 Songlines (Missed Arc) 1993 Hernando (12th Arc) 1994 Carnegie (Won Arc) 1995 Housamix (Missed Arc) 1996 Helissio(Won Arc) 1997 Rajpoute (Missed Arc) 2nd Peintre Célèbre (Won Arc) 1998 Sagamix (Won Arc) 1999 Montjeu (Won Arc) 2000 Sinndar (Won Arc) 2001 Golan (4th Arc) 2002 Sulamani (2nd Arc) 2003 Dalakhani (Won Arc) 2004 Valixir (10th Arc) 3rd Bago (Won Arc) 2005 Hurricane Run (Won Arc) 2006 Rail Link (Won Arc) 2007 Soldier of Fortune (5th Arc) 2008 Vision D'Etat (5th Arc) 2009 Cavalryman (3rd Arc) Arc 987 Trempolino 3 Pat Eddery André Fabre 1988 Tony Bin 5 J Reid L Camici 1989 Carroll House 4 M Kinane M Jarvis 1990 Saumarez 3 Gérald Mossé Nicolas Clément Bruce McNall/Wayne Gretzky 2:29.8 1991 Suave Dancer 3 Cash Asmussen John Hammond Henri Chalhoub 2:31.4 1992 Subotica 4 Thierry Jarnet André Fabre Olivier Lecerf 2:39.0 1993 Urban Sea 4 Eric Saint-Martin Jean Lesbordes David Tsui 2:37.9 1994 Carnegie 3 Thierry Jarnet André Fabre Sheikh Mohammed 2:31.1 1995 Lammtarra 3 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Sheikh Saeed 2:31.8 1996 Helissio 3 Olivier Peslier Elie Lellouche Enrique Sarasola 2:29.9 1997 Peintre Célèbre 3 Olivier Peslier André Fabre Daniel Wildenstein 2:24.6 1998 Sagamix 3 Olivier Peslier André Fabre Jean-Luc Lagardère 2:34.5 1999 Montjeu 3 Michael Kinane John Hammond Michael Tabor 2:38.5 2000 Sinndar 3 Johnny Murtagh John Oxx HH Aga Khan IV 2:25.8 2001 Sakhee 4 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 2:36.1 2002 Marienbard 5 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 2:26.7 2003 Dalakhani 3 Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré HH Aga Khan IV 2:32.3 2004 Bago 3 Thierry Gillet Jonathan Pease Niarchos family 2:25.0 2005 Hurricane Run 3 Kieren Fallon André Fabre Michael Tabor 2:27.4 2006 Rail Link 3 Stéphane Pasquier André Fabre Khalid Abdullah 2:26.3 2007 Dylan Thomas 4 Kieren Fallon Aidan O'Brien Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor 2:28.5 2008 Zarkava 3 Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Duprie HH Aga Khan IV 2:28.8 2009 Sea The Stars 3 Michael Kinane John Oxx Christopher Tsui 2:26.3 |
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I do think some of these stats can in themselves lead to trends, like following the latest fashion. Such as when Godolphin started keeping more older horses in training years ago and winning big races with them, which was welcome by us racing fans but largely against the trend at that time. Others, like Coolmore became more open to the idea as well. Unfortunately Godolphin's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse since then.
It's like the recent good record of fillies in the Arc recently. I'd bet any money that has been a contributing factor to Coolmore aiming Found at the race, after not even hitting the woodwork since Dylan Thomas. |
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A lot can be explained by breeding, the sires available.
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I think there are reasons to believe Found will out run her odds but it's does takes a rosy pair of shades to be bullish imo!
When AOB said ''she seems fine'' I think he was referring to the earlier part of the campaign where she got delayed in her prep for the Guineas. I think it was a cold she had? Maybe it was from this point she was aimed for the Arc. Practically every other runner Coolmore have run in it in recent years has been as an afterthought. Very few of them will have been given the summer off like Found has. |
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The also seem to be foregoing the Opera to have a crack at the Arc so you would think they're are confident to a degree she'll get the trip/run well.
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Does Legattisimo not go opera??
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What price would Found be for the Prix De L'Opera if she were running? Probably 2/1.
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Going to America I think, jedi.
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jedi sophie- I believe the Wachman stablemate Curvy is a possible the Prix de l’Opera
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Hello everyone. So who's betting what?
Finals decs tomorrow or wednesday? |
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10/11 Treve - will get better in running if anyone fancies her.
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A just need a few more stats before a finalise a selection
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I am a Found backer and wish I shared ffs' optimism!
However, I odd think it's pretty easy to make a case for her being tremendous value. It's looking increasingly likely Golden Horn will run and I could see him going off second fav and about 3/1. This is a horse who has been on the go all season, and the Arc doesn't seem to have been on their mind that much. Contrast that with Found... Currently 16/1, has proven she likes the Bois de Boulogne in autumn, will be fresh as a daisy and is trained by a master at getting them right for the big day. When you consider she only has 1 length to find on their last running, and that it doesn't take a leap of faith to assume Found will come on more for the run, it seems the price disparity between the two is just wrong. Now admittedly Found has yet to prove she stays the trip, whereas GH has stamina in abundance, but I think it's a no brainer who is the better value of these two. |
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in a clean run race,can't see
Found finishing in front of Golden Horn,myself. |
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I can't really argue with that penance... In fact I agree with you. I just think they should be a bit closer in the betting based on the last run and their campaigns.
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"I'm delighted to take her on and I really, seriously believe if we had firm ground, or good to firm, we'd win easily," said Oppenheimer.
Seems to be a lot of optimism about, although it's easy being bullish about a scenario you know is very unlikely to happen  |
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Figgis - "I'm delighted to take her on and I really, seriously believe if we had firm ground, or good to firm, we'd win easily,". Oppenheimer is a fool to make such a comment. I think there is der...ick coming out of his forehead for sure.
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Thanks for that lads,clearer picture tomorrow all round..just trying to get a picture of whos running and whos not,ill be on the plane out on friday aft as usual..best days racing of year for me!saturday not bad either!flat anyways..
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It wasn't a criticism... Just wish I was confident as you!
What does anyone think about potential watering? It's forecast to be an Indian Summer all week in Paris. If they leave the ground it looks like being at least good. Surely they will want to give Treve the best possible chance of winning? Wouldn't surprise me anyway and it's the main thing putting me off backing GH, as if it's good or better, I definitely think he will win. |
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keep seeing the last years win at the
track brought up.Whats that got to do with the Arc? Fact is every time since then against GP1 horses she's been beat. |
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"I'm delighted to take her on and I really, seriously believe if we had firm ground, or good to firm, we'd win easily,"- Oppenheimer
"There are no dangers, she's in a class of her own," he said. "In the Vermeille she was brilliant, she's unbelievable." - Freddy Head Criquette Head-Maarek on the prospect of the faster ground - "When we went to Ascot her feet were hurting her, but now she's fine. When she won at Saint-Cloud the ground was fast. Whose advice do you want to take over that buffoon? |
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I'd add that if they don't water, I really want to be against Treve.
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CCM..Why would you be so keen to oppose Treve on good,she absolutely hosed in at chantilly in french oaks against top fillies on good..she done the same in last years arc vintage or not on good,then this year didny break sweat to beat flintshire on good also who is at his best on that ground and is a terrific yardstick!!she handles good ground perfectly well..forms there.
And for what its worth there will be a decent dew on the ground in the morning.be astonished if gets quick ground..The weather in build up to last years was same but ground was not quick.. |
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Can't see them watering myself. As I've said a few times on here, the ground changes very little from the trials until the Arc unless it rains . It was soft on trials day. For it to be fast it would have to have been fast on trials day. It won't dry out.Best guess is good to soft.
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