We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1179 comments are related to the topic:
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,179
|
By:
Anyone got a view?
No French-trained 3yo colt has won the race for 9years No French-trained 3yo colt has finished in the first two in the Arc since Rail Link won in 2006. How much is being a 3yo French-trained colt against New Bay winning? |
|
By:
You know, in the run-up to the draw last year, Criquette Head-Maarek said exactly what Kincsem is (sort of) saying, that a high draw is no impediment on slow ground. She was very careful to add that caveat. Could be the way the course drains, could be camber at play, but the logic is that in her view on fast ground a high draw is an impediment
|
|
By:
How much is being a 3yo French-trained colt against New Bay winning?
None. |
|
By:
the logic is that in her view on fast ground a high draw is an impediment
Therefore having a low draw on fast ground is an advantage. QED. |
|
By:
It could be that the speedier types can get to the fresh 10m metre strip when its fast ground.
It's at least a decent attempt at an explanation but surely a horse's speed is relative to the other runners? The ones drawn lower will in theory be on the better ground, whatever that ground may be. On soft/heavy ground stamina comes to the fore and perhaps position matters less. This explanation has a bit more substance but the same factors apply, the higher drawn horses will still supposedly be running on worse ground and be running further than those on the inside. If you believe that softer ground nullifies these advantages then you'd also have to believe that the wins achieved on softer ground are more praiseworthy as they are a fairer result, whereas the faster ground results have been artificially aided (unless they were achieved from a high draw)? I'd also say that stamina coming to the fore can be as much, if not more, about the pace makeup of the race as the ground. |
|
By:
Anybodyelse see that Nightflower won the G1 in Germany today? That horse was slaughtered last time by Prince Gibraltar in the Grooser Preis von baden G1. PB has a terrific turn of foot and is targeted at the Arc. He is no 70/1 shot.May not win but has decent place prospects.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps3KnUEWFac |
|
By:
figgis
Thinking about tactics over here when the ground is soft, say at Haydock this week. The horses came down the middle of the track as they do at York,and at Sandown & Goodwood when they come over to the rail. Often the outside drawn horses benefit by being nearer to the rail and the inner (low draw) becomes a disadvantage. Certainly draw advantage is nullified. Why should Longchamp be any different? Perhaps kincem has something to add? |
|
By:
How much is being a 3yo French-trained colt against New Bay winning?
I agree none. It's no more a negative than Treve being a 5yo is against her without weighing up all the other considerations. Such things are just trends and unsurprising deviations from the statistical averages. They're about as relevant as me thinking I've got the game by the nads after backing half a dozen consecutive winners, only to come crashing down when my next half a dozen bets go tits up  |
|
By:
Sandown, yes, that does happen. Can you honestly say you've seen anything like that happen in the Arc though? I haven't and I don't even see how it would be possible.
As I said, I'm not saying kincsem is definitely wrong to be drawing firm conclusions from those stats, although I suspect he is. I am always sceptical when people put forward past stats as indicators of the future unless they can provide an explanation behind them. Maybe there is a plausible explanation but until I see it I'll remain a sceptic. Just to be absolutely clear, I am not arguing that the draw can't be favourable or unfavourable, just the specific relation it has to faster ground. |
|
By:
I remember Sea Bird coming down the middle but he was so superior that it doesn't count. I'll have a look back at the soft/heavy ground videos if I get some spare time.
|
|
By:
This is interesting.. It shows that males have more of an advantage over females at races over 8f (1600m) and that geldings are no faster than females.
A 1.4% edge over females over 8f equals around 2 secs at 12f which is amazing if true. Surely not? 3 lbs doesn't do it.Overall, females have woon the Arc in proportion to their numbers. But is there something at work with older females given their por record in the race.? So much that we don't know the answers too. Do racehorses and Greyhound dogs exhibit a gender difference in running speed? Pauline Entina1 c1 a1 Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Box 5640, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA Abstract At any level of competition, men run faster than women. Consequently, a male speed advantage is often presumed for other species. This assumption was tested in two animals bred for speed: horses and dogs. Results from Thoroughbred (TB), Standardbred (STB) and Greyhound (GH) races were analysed by ANOVA to compare the speeds of victorious males, neutered males (TB and STB only) and females. Separate analyses were run for shorter (TB: ≤ 1609 m, GH: 503 m) and longer (TB: >1609 m, GH: 603.5 m) TB and GH races. All STB races (trotters and pacers) were 1609 m. In TB races, intact males were 0.7% faster than females at ≤ 1609 m (n = 305; P < 0.01) and 1.4% faster at >1609 m (n = 194; P < 0.01). The speed of neutered males was equivalent to that of females at both distances. Gender accounted for 3.8 and 10.7% of the variance in speed at short and long distances, respectively. In STB pacers, intact males were 1.5% faster than females and gender accounted for 10.1% of the variance in speed (n = 96; P < 0.01). Gender was not a significant predictor of STB trotter (n = 95) or GH speed at 503 m (n = 146) or 603.5 m (n = 23). In conclusion, gender has a significant effect on speed of TBs and STB pacers. Although the effect size is small, it may be significant for racing; in a 7 furlong (1408 m) TB race, the 0.7% difference translates to an advantage of several lengths. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=1672676 |
|
By:
The figures speak.
Average draw position Finish__fast 15__slow 19 1________4.9_______9.6 2________7.7_______9.3 3________8.6_______8.2 4_______11.2______11.2 5________7.4_______9.0 6________7.9_______10.8 7_______10.9________8.5 8________9.7_______10.3 9________8.1_______9.9 10________9.6______10.1 11_______10.8______10.5 12________8.0_______8.3 13________7.6______10.4 14_______12.7______10.1 15_______10.5_______7.9 16________9.7_______9.3 17_______13.3______12.4 18_______10.6_______9.4 Pearson___0.59____0.13 Average draw 9.6 (34 races) (4.9 is the average draw for the 15 fastest races of the horse that finished 1st) The Pearson says there is a much bigger draw advantage for low draws on fast ground. One anomoly is the 11.2 average draw for the 4th place finishers of the 15 fastest races. Most of these were top class horses disadvantaged by their high draw (imo) who got close. Draw Horse 1 Califet (2002) 131/1 1 Hurricane Run (2006) ... 1st in 2005 2 It's Gino (2008) 150/1 3 Mtoto (1987) .... 2nd in 1988 10 Montjeu (2000) ... 1st in 1999 10 Getaway (2007) 12 Oscar Schindler (1997) ...3rd in 1996 12 Conduit (2009) 14 So You Think (2011) 14 Caro (1971) 15 Shirocco (2005) 15 Three Troikas (1980) ... 1st in 1979 19 Acropolis (2004) 20 Kingston Hill (2014) 21 Time Charter (1983) If anyone thinks a low draw on fast ground is no good please post some data. |
|
By:
Outstanding stuff kincem. I'm a believer. On the question of horses coming wide on soft ground, there was the case of Orfevre in 2102. He was drawn wide, came wide round the last turn and came down the middle before veering over to the rail. He was the moral winner that year.
|
|
By:
Poor response to my Arc quiz posted at 13:59
 |
|
By:
This is the book I use for Arc hard to get info
http://www.genesis-publications.com/book/the-arc/collector |
|
By:
On the question of horses coming wide on soft ground, there was the case of Orfevre in 2102. He was drawn wide, came wide round the last turn and came down the middle before veering over to the rail
Not sure what this means to you? Are you saying the higher draw is less of a disadvantage because the higher drawn horse is more likely to come wide or down the middle? How would that negate the disadvantage as the horse will be still running on supposedly slower ground and travelling further? |
|
By:
Just saying that on soft/heavy it is an example. It doesn't appear to be (as much)of a disadvantage as it would on fast ground.
|
|
By:
The average field size is bigger for the slower final time races than for the faster ones, so there will naturally be more higher drawn winners when there are more of them running. There are marginal swings and roundabouts looking at all those finishing positions except for the winner, where the difference is noticeable. I'd say if the statistics were to be taken as gospel there ought to be a more sequential relationship between the finishing positions and the draw. Why would any draw bias have far more effect on winners?
The other thing to consider is that, putting the extremities to one side, some of those faster final times will not necessarily mean that the ground was significantly faster than for other races further up the list. Some will be due to an outstanding performance by the winner. Some will have been influenced by wind conditions and some will be the result of rail movements, which are no more consistent over in France than they are for some courses here. Some of the races in the slower half of the list will have been influenced by a slow pace. Aside from that, some of those final times, particularly the older ones, are questionable, even the Danedream one from a few years ago. |
|
By:
kincesm- you are the man mate, a race statistician genius.
|
|
By:
his is the book I use for Arc hard to get info
http://www.genesis-publications.com/book/the-arc/collector That's some book kincem |
|
By:
After all this I'm now actually hoping the ground is on the faster side and Treve gets a high draw. Slower ground might lessen the chances of some others, thereby emphasising her superiority but I reckon she's equally as good on both types of ground. It may also mean Golden Horn would come in for some support against her. I'm not sure how much a high draw would be reflected in the market but anything that helps her become a bigger price is fine by me
 |
|
By:
can see the ground similar to last year i think it got quite quick towards the end of the day
agree figgis she can start in the car park im sure she will be 5/4 somewhere sunday morning |
|
By:
Seems like the Arc was the long term plan after all! Getting Moore back just in time for the big one is a massive bonus.
 O'Brien, who saddled Dylan Thomas to win the prestigious Group 1 in 2007, takes some hope Found will stay from her pedigree. "She seems to be fine," he said on Sunday. "She hasn't done much since her last run, but I'm happy with her so hopefully she'll be okay this week and we look forward to seeing what she can do. "I suppose her dam [Red Evie] was a miler, but she's by Galileo who is usually a big influence for stamina so you'd think and hope she'd stay, but you can't guarantee it until they do it." The Ballydoyle trainer, who was speaking to At The Races, added: "She loved Longchamp last year and we said if everything went well we'd give her an easy enough spring and train her for the Arc for the second half of the season and that's what we've done." Found is owned by the Coolmore parnters, whose main jockey Ryan Moore is set to be on board. |
|
By:
That's great news Mr.D, Ryan Moore back aboard, sounds like she will hopefully come on for the run. Her progression from the Moyglare to the Boussac was considerable.
As for the fast ground bias, maybe it's as simple as the early fractions being kind when the ground is slow as it brings stamina more into play which few can guarantee if they have to make the running. On faster ground, all being more certain of getting the trip and the early pace is less forgiving ? Just a theory, |
|
By:
Woop...all systems go for the Found punt....said some time ago it was possible her whole season had been geared around the Arc.
|
|
By:
I think she will come on for the Irish Champion Stakes run FFS, that race was just prep and a stepping stone to the main objective. The big question mark now is will she get the trip? Her full sister Magical Dream gives us hope, drying ground will also help matters but Treve will be a tough nut to crack.
Yep, seems you were spot on Sint. |
|
By:
im sure she will be 5/4 somewhere sunday morning
Hope so, could look tempting on the day. Seems a strange strategy to not test your horse's stamina out before the Arc. Not that it can't work, but a bit odd to gear your horse's whole campaign around a race at the end of the season that it might not even have the stamina for instead of finding out earlier then giving yourself time to readjust your plans to aim for races you can win. Still, better to have a plan than just go there as an afterthought I suppose. |
|
By:
Strange post from o Brien... " she seems to be fine"
One thing I've learnt over the tears is to interrupt trainers comments. Seems, is the same as hop or think, it's not a positive statement..it's like getting a letter from the council and not paying your poll tax. " we may/ could take you to court. " it's not a positive statement..." we can and will" is Coolmore this year are clutching at straws .. She will not get a yard over 10 f |
|
By:
" One has been looking over the tears......" , a Freudian slip?
|
|
By:
Well , something like that.
  |
|
By:
the 10f at the Curragh she went through, at a good clip, and quickened so smartly at the end.
Found will have no problems with 12 at Longchamp. AO'B is always a bit nervy when he doesn't have a resounding favourite, an Australia, a Camelot, a Gleneagles .. it's just the way he is - he was very confident about her the day she won the Royal Whip, talked up skipping the Irish Champion for the Vermeille, but of course with the weather and Gleneagles that plan went out the window. Fwiw, he's said the exact same thing about both Australia and Camelot before the Epsom Derby. It's just plain common sense - there must be >95% chance she'll get the trip, but as he says, you don't know 'til you see them do it. But she'll have no problem, more to the point is will she take to the finishing straight like she did in the Prix Marcel Boussac last year because if she does she'll probably win ! |
|
By:
But she'll have no problem, more to the point is will she take to the finishing straight like she did in the Prix Marcel Boussac last year because if she does she'll probably win !
We don't know what kind of pace we'll get on Sunday but I'd say it's long odds against it'll be anything like the early crawl that was last year's Boussac. There's a big difference in sprinting off a crawl and sprinting off a truly run race. Found has shown nothing like that ability to quicken at the business end of all the better run races she's been involved in this year. |
|
By:
I also think Found will get the trip, but it's still an odd way to campaign her if the Arc was always the target. By running over a trip the jockey and connections then have the experience of how the horse handled it and how best to ride it next time. Things like maybe it would be better to hold on to the horse for longer or just the opposite and strike for home earlier. I know this kind of inexperience is the norm for the Derby but it's obviously avoidable for the Arc and is rarely left to chance.
|
|
By:
Kincsem, may I say your namesake would be proud of your contribution to this thread if she was still with us and I can give you no greater compliment than that.
Bravo. |
|
By:
In other news, Migwar runs and Peslier rides (apparently)...although I appear to be the only one interested in that horse!
|
|
By:
I noticed the '86 running was missing from the list, it was run on good to firm and Dancing Brave was drawn 15 of 15 I think. Not sure why '71 is on there.
|
|
By:
kincsem- ditto The Headmaster, you are our "Precious" or our "Treasure".
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Found at the top of her game has the finishing speed to win any race
Based on what? |
|
By:
wow, if I didn't see you arguing with everyone on everything I'd almost think it was personal.
Simply put - the turn of pace she showed in the Boussac was phenomenal, hands-and-heels romp from the top-class Ervedya. Do the maths, how many 2yos had that speed ? None last year, other than Found, which is why she went from A/P Guineas (and Oaks) fav to prohibitively strong. Now, I'm only repeating what Pricewise wrote, for a neutral point-of-view "Ridiculosly good" As for the other matter - her campaigning - take it up with Aidan O'Brien, I don't question the man when he has a mission to achieve - usually it's solely the Epsom Derby, but he's turned his hand to winning other races with consumate ease. Found was NOT aimed at the Arc from day one this year. She was a Guineas/Oaks filly. However, when she got held up it was decided to switch plans. In AO'Bs own words "She's the kind of filly you'd like to look forward to all year with" - that was before she withdraw from Newmarket. Now, she's had imo an excellent prep, after her comeback blowout she competed in two Group1s over 1mile and was 2nd twice, excellent form. Put away for two months she emerged at the Curragh a different looking animal, having grown the best of a hand and maybe 50kilos of pure muscle. a) Played with a good horse in Answered over the 10 on soft and a good clip, hands-and-heels left her reeling 4L back b) Took the place of Gleneagles in Ireland's top race and beat the Prince-of-Wales 1+2 in Free Eagle and TGG c) I can't wait to see what happens next - her targetted race - sure to come on again as race 2) was only meant to be the Vermeille. AO'B is (notorious / brilliant) at bringing his charges to the exact boil for the day it matters. She's very exciting. Her run in the Boussac (by RPR) was more impressive than anything New Bay has ever done ! |