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Horse Antepost
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These 1179 comments are related to the topic:
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
** Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe **
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The big field could cause problems of its own, but putting that to one side, if New Bay and Golden Horn were non runners would you seriously fancy any of that lot to beat Treve in her own backyard in a well run race? I think to oppose her you'd have to be hoping she has an off day.
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For me, Golden Horn and New Bay are the only realistic opposition, the only thing left is Treve runs below par and then it could be anybody's race. GH has had a far from ideal prep and is possibly showing he's not quite as good as he was. New Bay is all about potential, but if Treve runs to form I think there is only a very slim chance he'll prove good enough to beat her. So basically against Treve I have the possibility she doesn't fire and the possibility that Golden Horn hasn't gone off the boil. That considered I think any odds against is fair enough on the day. I'd be very happy with 6/4 but not sure I'll get that.
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My best friend and I greened up and will be celebrating our Arc winnings on his birthday three weeks later. Our biggest winner is Manatee. But even if Treve wins, it will still be a very boozy night!
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If the Irish Champion Stakes card had have been a 7-race card and the last never happened, what would we all make of the time of the Irish Champion? Of course, it did happen, but had it not I think we'd all be looking at the performance as a fairly solid one.
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Could someone oblige me with the draw for the first three in the betting please?
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** I've just read on the Sporting Life website that the draw is made today.
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Hi figgis,
Not sure I agree with your price analysis about Treve on the day, at 6/4 punters are getting mugged, I would expect at least 9/4 for such a competitive event, the history of 5yrlds is enough of a question to expect that kind of price, firming ground also must be factored in,plus another unknown challenger in Free Eagle, and the hard to get too the bottom of New Bay, and the possibility that Found could improve dramatically, I count 4 unknown serious possibility s , hell she should be 3/1! |
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The ground at LONGCHAMP is officially GOOD TO SOFT (8.30 am 2nd October) An English person walked the track yesterday afternoon and reported the ground to be good and would likely get a bit quicker if there is no rain and the sun continues to shine.
For up to date weather reports please click on the links below: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/paris-16e-arrondissement/75016 http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur |
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On the face of it, NB has to find quite a bit to win. On adjusted RPR's Treve adjusted is 143, GH 142 , FE 133, Tapestry 133,Flintshire 133 Found 132 and NB 131.
Here's the BUT. Treves 143 rating dates back 2 years so taking last years Arc as her figure puts her on 138. Likewise, GH was given an inflated rating for winning the Eclipse imo. Taking his best as his Derby win he's on 137. Flintshire has had his chance in this race imo last year. I think 133 his his max.Likewise RTapestry. That leaves FE, Found and NB all of whom can be expected to improve. Can they improve by 5,6,7 lb respectively assuming that they will have to i.e neither Treve not GH will regress.? NB is the one imo who has the greatest scope for improvement. The race is littered with horses who found much more when peaking on the day so i'm pretty confident that he will find. As will FE & Found. I think the race is more open than it seems, but I will go NB,Treve,GH subject to changing my mind when we know the draw. |
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treve and new bay handed plum draws, golden horn drawn out in the car park, no surprise there then.
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No need to change my mind after the draw
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Starting to edge towards your New Bay Sandown, I must admit. Fabre the master.
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name draw
Manatee 1 Shahah 2 Eagle Top 3 Erupt 4 New Bay 5 Frine 6 Siljan'S Saga 7 Treve 8 Tapestry 9 Prince Gibraltar 10 Flintshire 11 Free Eagle 12 Dolniya 13 Golden Horn 14 Found 15 Meleagros 16 Silverwave 17 Spiritjim 18 |
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My antepost bets bets
 Eagle Top, drawn 3 (odds 78) Erupt, drawn 4 (odds 286) Some people might like to know how horses drawn 8 have fared over the years. That is Treve's draw. I'll post that in a minute. |
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My 2 big value outsiders which win for me are Erupt, Prince Gibraltar. I've previously given my reasons
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Shocker for me there. GH and Found both given bad ones
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Good article by Timeform on the draw
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/rowleyfile-investigates-the-prix-de-l%E2%80%99arc-de-triomphe-draw-2392015 Concludes that being drawn 1-4 is a slight advantage, but not much difference after that. |
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Draw 8 in Arc, fastest time down to slowest time
(for races where i have the draw) 2011___144.49 secs; 12th of 16 runners 1997___144.60 secs; 16th of 18 runners 2002___144.70 secs; 7th of 16 runners 2004___145.00 secs; 9th of 19 runners 2000___145.80 secs; 7th of 10 runners 2014___146.05 secs; 13th of 19 runners 1987___146.30 secs; 1st of 11 runners .... Trempolino 2006___146.30 secs; 7th of 08 runners 2009___146.30 secs; 7th of 19 runners 1988___147.30 secs; 18th of 24 runners 2005___147.40 secs; 5th of 15 runners 1980___148.00 secs; 6th of 20 runners 1983___148.10 secs; 3rd of 26 runners 1971___148.30 secs; 8th of 18 runners 2007___148.50 secs; 8th of 12 runners 2008___148.80 secs; 5th of 16 runners 1985___149.50 secs; 12th of 15 runners 1990___149.80 secs; 2nd of 21 runners ... Epervier Bleu 1996___149.90 secs; 8th of 16 runners 1989___150.80 secs; 16th of 19 runners 1994___151.10 secs; 13th of 20 runners 1991___151.40 secs; 10th of 14 runners 1995___151.80 secs; 8th of 16 runners 2013___152.04 secs; 2nd of 17 runners .... Orfevre 2003___152.30 secs; 10th of 13 runners 1998___154.50 secs; 9th of 14 runners 1981___155.20 secs; 8th of 24 runners 2010___155.30 secs; 1st of 18 runners .... Workforce 2001___156.10 secs; 13th of 17 runners 2012___157.68 secs; 17th of 18 runners 1993___157.90 secs; 11th of 23 runners 1999___158.50 secs; 4th of 14 runners 1992___159.00 secs; 10th of 18 runners 1984___159.10 secs; 5th of 22 runners Average finish of draw 8 was 8.5 Median finish of draw 8 was 8 |
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http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/Domaines/Courses/course_detail.aspx?aaCrse=2015&spCrse=P&numCrsePgm=00907
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For info about horses running in France
It is useful in that it also shows where a horse was entered and did not run. http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/domaines/chevaux/cheval_genealogie.aspx |
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So no surprises in the draw
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if you thought new bay was a bet at 5-1 pre draw you must be very happy to still take the 5-1 now... perfect draw for him but less so for golden horn and a good few others...
the draw has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons imo betting wise |
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NB is the one imo who has the greatest scope for improvement. The race is littered with horses who found much more when peaking on the day so i'm pretty confident that he will find
This is true but that's because there is often a bunch of 3yos in the race who have the potential to improve, it's rare that they all do. Sometimes one does but it's finding (or guessing) the right one. Last year Ectot was expected to improve, he didn't, before that there were others such as Behkabad and Zambesi Sun also said to be sure to improve. So really the race is just as littered with 3yos expected to make improvement that didn't. |
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Not really buying that Figgis. No numbers in front of me but if Solemia, Marienbard, Urban Sea, Subotica, Carroll House and Tony Bin (to name just six) didn't show improved form on the day I'd be surprised. None of them were 3yos.
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Regarding the draw, the market will probably begin to react to Golden Horn ending up with a high draw. It all depends on whether you think the draw invariably has a huge impact on the race or a marginal one. If you think it's a marginal one then it's likely the market will assimilate the perceived draw bias so if I fancied GH beforehand I'd now be getting a bigger price than if he'd been drawn lower so the draw alone wouldn't put me off backing him.
From what Gosden said the other day it sounded like he'd prefer GH to be held up in the Arc as he feels that's when he performs to his best, a high draw doesn't necessarily have to be a big disadvantage if those are the tactics and much will depend on the jockey, and luck of course. |
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Solemia, Marienbard, Urban Sea, Subotica, Carroll House and Tony Bin
I never said they didn't, but if you're choosing older horses then you're using a very small percentage of the field that showed improvement, I could show you a whole load behind who didn't  |
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I think FOUND at 25/1 is a decent each way poke considering the record of 3 yo fillies in the race, and her proximity to Golden Horn in the Irish Champion. The draw in the car park is something one has to live with at that price...
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2013 Treve improved +9,
2011 Danedream +3 3 yr olds 2008 Zarkava +5 2006 Rail Link +7 2005 Hurricane Run +0 but 2 lbs top rated 2004 Bago +5 2003 Dalakhani +8 1999 Montjeu +3 1998 Sagamix +3 1997 Peintre Celebre +12 1996 Helissio +13 1996 Lammtarra +5 4yr olds 2012 Solemnia +12 1993 Urban Sea +3 1992 Subotica +3 Some major regressions 2014 Tagroohda -7 Ectot -8 2013 Ruler of the World -6 2012 Camelot -22 Sea Moon -19 St Nicholas Abbey -23 Orfevre -6 2011 Galikova -11 Workforce -20 So You Think -6 2010 Fame and Glory -10 Lope de Vega -20 Cape Blanco -31 2007 Authorized -23 2006 Shirocco -12Sixties Icon -9 2005 Sccorpion -13 Mubtakker -18 2004 Grey Swallow -29 |
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I'm obviously not arguing that Arc winners can and do improve on the day. I'm arguing against the false hypothesis that's saying New Bay has the potential to improve, a lot of winners have improved on the day, therefore he should improve.
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You didn't say that Figgis, no. You said the reason the race is littered with horses who found much more when peaking on the day is because there is often a bunch of 3yos in the race with the potential to improve. I don't agree with that and have outlined why.
In similar vein, I personally don't think Workforce, Sea The Stars, Zarkava, Dalakhani, Sinndar, Montjeu or Lammtarra showed notable improvement when winning their Arcs - all of them 3yos |
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well just gone through the field and really the pace in the race is only guaranteed from 2 horses and thats if they want to make the pace?
one is obviously the pace maker shahah drawn in stall 1 and the other is golden horn who like figgis alludes to, is supposed to be held up in this race... so are we guaranteed a muddling pace like we saw in 2013 when leading light should of been taken to the lead but missed the kick, leading to a lot of hard luck stories which we also saw last year, with the pacemaker just being a moderate horse unable to make it a fast run affair leading to any number of runners bunching and having to come in the other county to make there challenge in the straight, with of course treve coming up the golden highway rail after a perfect trip will gosden who should of at least given jack hobbs an entry for the draw, going to end up regretting his non sporting decision, we will see, one thing for sure is golden horn will have to do it the hard way imo or risk being a hostage to fortune if the pace in the race doesn't end up as connections may have wished...we will see i'm not bitter about jack hobbs by the way, just sick |
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I'm arguing against the false hypothesis that's saying New Bay has the potential to improve, a lot of winners have improved on the day, therefore he should improve.
No, the hypothesis is - he is a classy 3 yr old who has strong potential to improve, therefore he should improve, and if he does he can go close because many winners in the past have shown improvement to win.(i.e improving past higher rated horses.) |
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has strong potential to improve, therefore he should improve
For me it's a leap between potential and should. Did you not also think such as Ectot, Behkabad and Zambesi Sun had the potential to improve? |
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You didn't say that Figgis, no. You said the reason the race is littered with horses who found much more when peaking on the day is because there is often a bunch of 3yos in the race with the potential to improve. I don't agree with that and have outlined why.
Ah right, see what you mean, well I was just limiting the observation to 3yos because it was a 3yo that was being discussed, but yes obviously older runners can show improved form as well. |
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*Zambezi Sun
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Did you not also think such as Ectot, Behkabad and Zambesi Sun had the potential to improve?
Yes i did. They didn't. How does that negate the argument? Potential has to translate into fact. That's why I used the term "should." Is this worth discussing? |
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Perhaps "could" or "might" or "possibly" might suit you better. In no way did I imply that "potential" to improves equates to "certain to."
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I personally don't think Workforce, Sea The Stars, Zarkava, Dalakhani, Sinndar, Montjeu or Lammtarra showed notable improvement when winning their Arcs - all of them 3yos
I'd agree with most of that, not sure about Lammtarra as I always seemed to underrate him anyway, either that he was lucky in a weak year. The thing with most public handicappers is they're always looking to elevate a horse's rating in a race like the Arc anyway, the same way they believe that a horse must have improved to win a handicap, which I don't agree with. |
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The thing with most public handicappers is they're always looking to elevate a horse's rating in a race like the Arc anyway, the same way they believe that a horse must have improved to win a handicap, which I don't agree with
I agree with that statement strongly Figgis and in no way would confine it to Pattern races. You hardly ever see a horse win a handicap that isn't raised. Is that really right? Is every horse that wins a handicap on the up? I can't have it myself.... |
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Apologies chaps, bit off topic. I'll shuddup....
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