Still difficult to be sure exactly how fast today but I'd say similar to last year and not as fast as when Treve won the Prix De Diane. If she's beaten I definitely won't be using the ground as an excuse.

Imagine if Found got a good draw - wow, she'd run the pants off them - but there must be a lot of confidence behind her, to my eyes she's the biggest mover so far even with that draw.

18 and even 20 with the books, what was she before? 16 when I looked the other day.

Very true FFS but you cannot hide the fact he's got a wretched record with 3 year old's at this meeting but fingers crossed he might have FOUND and trained a winner for the first time tomorrow!

It is odd that he's got such a poor record, this race never seems to be on the Team Coolmore radar... always seems to be a bit of an after thought!

Looking forward to see how she goes, draw is dodgy but I'm confident Moore can get her in a good early position.

to be fair to Treve she did break the track record @ Ascot last year on Firm...just two other horses did so too and she had a bad injury.

just wonder if the French groundsman was telling the whole truth...didn't water the track today but what about that huge extra strip they've kept for Arc day?

pick of the morning prices

6/4 treve ladbrokes 9am

golden horn 7/1 corals 11.30am

found 20/1 corals 11.30am

eagle top pricwise tip 40/1 corals and hills

Found, Free Eagle, Dolniya, Tapestry have question marks about form / distance / draw.
Flintshire goes on firm but disadvantaged by the draw.
New Bay won his last two races on very soft and heavy, and it will be firm tomorrow.
His one run (and win) on good was a six runner conditions race.  He hasn’t run on fast ground.
In addition his dam, Cinnamon Bay, won three times on soft from seven races, and never ran on firm.

Erupt (4), Treve(8), Eagle Top(3), Golden Horn(14) are possible winners.  They are drawn 4, 8, 3, 14

Erupt beaten 11 ½ lengths by New Bay in his last race, very soft 2400m, and after a 60 day layoff.
The Grand Prix de Paris was run in about the same time as a fillies Listed race on the card.  I am not convinced of his ability.

Treve is the short priced favourite.
My concerns: pulls; is better with give; not the best draw; has beaten poor horses this year, or the same horses.
2013: got preferred soft ground, and fancied German horse Novellist withdrawn the day before the race.
2014: good draw in 3 on quick ground was an advantage.

Golden Horn: RP Weekender gallops reports Golden Horn (Wed) 1m, “burst clear of lead”; (Sat) 1m, “burst clear”.
His drawn in 14 is a big disadvantage imo on quick ground.

Eagle Top
RP Weekender gallops reports (Sat) 1m, “went clear of lead”.
From what I have seen this is a small horse (but I’m no judge).  He has lost his last five races.
He has two pieces of very good form in his eight runs, and one promising run.
20/06/14 He won the King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot on good/firm beating Adelaide 3 ¼ lengths
“closed quickly to join leaders and rider steadied well over 1f out, ridden and quickened to lead entering final furlong”.
Watch the video on youtube, and listen to the comments afterwards.
You seldom see a horse quicken, the jockey take a pull 1f out, and quicken again.
25/07/15 He was 2nd in the 12f Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth to Postponed, beaten a nose.
I think this is a very good 12f fast ground horse that needs a fast pace race, and can quicken.
My worry was that he trailed the field in every race, and came through at the finish.
These would be disastrous tactics in the Arc.
In his last race, “soon led at decent pace” leads me to hope he was being educated to take a more prominent position.
He has the perfect draw in stall 3.  Worth a bet at the odds.

Ground: My comparison of the Group races run so far this Arc weekend shows the ground on the firm side, similar to 2014.
I compared the race times with the previous 34 years.

My bets so far: Eagle Top: €187.51; Erupt: €34.07;

Timeform race pass for Arc - https://www.timeform.com/racing/racecard/race/2015-10-04/80/4

Great race in prospect. Found and Free Eagle are interesting but have never gone 12f which suggests their connections don't think they will stay but didn't want to find that out before Arc day. Gosden has got his ground for Golden Horn but too many hard races for me - drawn 14 of 18 is not as bad as all that and sounds like getting excuses in early. Treve looks unbeatable but may have ran her Arc in the Vermeille and price is too short. New Bay for me.

Incidentally does anyone know how many short-priced (shorter than 2-1 say) French-trained favourites have been beaten in this race?

Can't see past Treve and New Bay with Erupt the only longer priced possible. Limato looks very solid in the Foret.

Will back Treve to win and New Bay each way.Have already backed and layed Dolniya.

Meleagros a non-runner

I'm going to expand a bit on the likely going.
I took 9 Arc weekend Group races from 1980 to 2014 (315 races, 311 times found).
Rank each race 1 to 35 (1 is fastest), get an average the ranks for the 9 races each year.
The fastest year was 2000 with 8 of the 9 races that year 8th fastest or quicker in the 35 years .

2014 was 6th fastest of the 35 years, and that included a very slow Prix Dollar (ranked 23/34 races) where Cirrus Des Aigles "led at steady pace, .... disqualified and placed 5th (slow 6.78)"
Take out that very slow 2014 Prix Dollar and the other 2014 races would have ranked 2nd fastest in 35 years.
Prix Daniel Wildenstein (4); Prix De Royallieu (2); Prix Dollar (23); Prix De La Foret (2); Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (11); Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (6); Prix De L'Opera (13); Prix Du Cadran (2); Prix Marcel Boussac (9)

And yesterday's Group races were faster than 2014.

backed flintshire ew.

had many a long shot hit the woodwork in this.....from largesse to youmzain and mubtaker.
califet got 4th when cruising 2 out...was 600/1 on here and about 90/1 on the place

also gotta miss the race and the football....

Treve win, place saver on Flintshire.

Agree with Flintshire running a place on this ground.

Looking forward to seeing Treve win also

Luca Cumani must feel so depressed today. Prepares Postponed for the Arc, perfect prep race, and the going comes perfectly in his favour, only for the horse to be taken away from him. I'm strongly of the opinion he won the KG and his Arc trial despite not being at his best on soft ground. I would have made him a very stronger contender for top 3 finish today in the Arc. What a wasted opportunity.

Interesting to see what kind of pace we get here. Including yesterday a large majority of the races have been run at a slow early pace, even by French standards.