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1000 GUINEAS (2016)
1000 GUINEAS (2016)
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Replies: 487
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bit of money for her this morning james so hopefull so
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The latest 'weather for the week ahea'd was posted at lunchtime on the BBC weather site and shows plenty of rain so I've laid off my stake on Ballydoyle now @15/2 in case she becomes a n/r, - still have a nice free bet on her if she does run.
Just watched Midweek's run in the Imprudence and if she is definitely coming over then the 40/1 could be very big, and the softer the better. I've had 1pt e/w on her @ 40/1 (so bound to be a non runner now). |
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Midweek needed that outing in the Prix Imprudence and has come on a lot from that run. She's a stunning looking filly and sure to improve. She showed a good turn of foot in her gallop yesterday. Better ground will suit her.
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I don't particularly fancy Thetis, as she's from a middle distance family and last season's Rockfel form looks decidedly shaky. We'll find out tomorrow whether she's an intended runner in the Guineas or whether they will look to step her up in trip (in an Oaks trial).
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It was the first time I'd seen Midweek on video and she is a lovely big filly with a great stride. She had them all off the bridle with 2 to run and she quickened well enough when let down although she ran a bit green as well.
I would be a bit worried about the undulations at N'Mkt unbalancing her but hopefully some ease in the ground will help. If she is declared and gets a decent draw and is still 20/1+ I will go in again. |
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No point talking about these big prices unless people actually believe they will win, any one believe midweek will win?
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Midweek certainly can't be ruled out. Criquette Head-Maarek knows what it takes to win the race and clearly holds this filly in high regard. I've backed her at big prices because I have a portfolio approach to betting on this race and have taken the view that this filly is open to plenty of improvement. On balance, I think she'll probably find the company a bit too hot for her at this stage of her career. It's very rare for a filly to win the Guineas without having been tried in pattern company as a juvenile.
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Do I think Midweek is the most likely winner - no. Do I think 40/1 underestimates her chance considerably - yes.
Minding is the clear form pick but to my mind Coolmore haven't been giving the right vibes about her, and Ballydoyle might yet get pulled out if it rains. So the way I am looking at the race is that one of Minding or Ballydoyle won't run so that takes a big percentage of the market out. Softish ground would also inconvenience the speedy fillies like Luminere and Illuminate who have stamina concerns. Assuming I'm right on both counts (which is what I am backing in essence) I'd make Mdweek about a 10/1 shot. She is lightly raced (so open to improvement) and well bred, from a top yard who know how to win the race and she has shown her well being and is proven on soft. At 40/1 whats not to like. Obviously she might not be declared but then I'll just blame jamesp  |
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Minding could get beat in the Guineas but is a cert for the oaks
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Minding is by no means certain to get the Oaks trip. The dam's side of her pedigree is packed with performers up to a mile.
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Uncle, you are backing her with the hope to trade out. It seems quite likely her odds will end up around the 25/1 mark regardsless if all the runners at the head of the market remain.
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Worth pointing out that Treve was sired by Motivator just like Midweek so Criquette clearly a fan of his. I would guess a little of that is to do with the fact they mostly handle soft ground which is suitable for France.
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Sint - no intention to trade out on Midweek. As I say I'll go in again if she gets declared and is still a big price.
I traded out of Ballydoyle because I'm still no more than 50/50 that she will run and I would feel pretty stupid and annoyed with myself if I didn't trade out of my position. . There's no point having £84 at @ 15.46 if she doesn't turn up.  |
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I think she will only not run now if the Going is Gs,S in places, and worse. If it's Good to Soft it would be a bit of a joke if they pulled her out.
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Whats the going at chantilly? if it rains all week cant see why they would send her to newmarket but problem is she has nowhere else to go if its also soft at chantilly and is clearly raring to go
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Sint Motivator stands @ Haras Du Fresnay which is owned by the Head family.
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Unless I'm mistaken the French Guineas is 2 weeks later - and the weather is meant to get milder and sunnier from next week (if you can believe the long range forecast) so every reaosn to think she will get better ground.
Just tried to get another tenner on Midweek @ 40/1 with Spoilsports - knocked back to £2.90  They really are a rancid excuse for a bookie. |
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Don't get me wrong I still win a decent lump if she wins so I very much hope the weather isn't too bad and Ballydoyle runs at New'Mkt.
Midweek is just another big price string to my bow along with my previous bets on Alice Springs who I also backe din the 'without Minding' market. |
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Jet Setting to be supplemented what price 12s?
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Way out there.Priced up @ 33s
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I noticed yesterday that Coral had added Jet Setting at 33s. I'm surprised that they are going to supplement her. After her prep race they were talking about running in the German Guineas (in early June). She goes exceptionally well on testing ground, so if the heavens open and the ground turns soft she's sure to shorten in the betting. On the other hand, if the ground remains good, she's likely to be a drifter.
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1)LUMIERE 2) MINDING 3) NATHRA Your predictions please folks...lets see who gets it
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Jet Setting would have been about a million to one at the start of March.
 Mind you she has a simialr profile to Homecomingqueen and she won by 9 lengths so you just never know and I can fully understand connection supplenting her. |
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She loves to force the pace on heavy ground. She was unplaced in a nursery off a mark of 85 last September when she was trained by Richard Hannon. If she wins the Guineas I will give up the game!
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Me too lol
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I would have said exactly the same about HCQ and she won by a country mile (maybe not against such a strong looking field), but once it gets soft, coupled with a major draw/pace bias anything can happen. That why it's called gambling.
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Sam Walker fancies Midweek to cause an upset on Sunday...
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd |
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Eight withdrawals from the 1000 Guineas. 17 fillies remain (including the supplementary entry).
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Withdrawals: Antonoé, Chastushka, Come Alive, First Victory, Love Potion, Now Or Never, Shaden and Thetis. No real surprises there.
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Best prices: 6/4 Minding, 9/2 Lumiere, 11/2 Ballydoyle, 10 Nathra, 14 Illuminate, 20 Turret Rocks, 25 Alice Springs, 25 Robanne, 33 Midweek, 40 Blue Bayou, 40 Fireglow, 50 Mix And Mingle, 66 Aljazzi, 66 Ashadihan, 66 Sharja Queen, 150 Epsom Icon.
The big mover among the outsiders, rather surprisingly, is Robanne - now a general 25/1 chance. She was 66/1 with a couple of firms before this morning's declarations. |
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Missed out 33/1 Jet Setting!
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still 33 with the ok corals james
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Thanks. I just meant that I'd missed her out of the list of best available prices posted earlier.
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Current going is Good. Updated today.
Cheers Geoff |
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yes I realise now james im not as sharp as u but thanks again for your great input into this once again gud luck
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Coolmores UK representative Kevin Buckley said today at a pre-guineas media event " AFB's preperation has been faultless and they are all happy and i think MINDING is the best, thats what im thinking and hearing".
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#preparation
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The RP stable tour of O'Brien stated that Ballydoyle was "well forward", and Minding "quite forward"
Now I didn't watch the Morning Line, but saw the clip of the gallops. Why were C4 treated to watching a horse that AOB had already stated was well forward. Surely its the other one that we should have been watching? Has Minding been put through the same thorough gallop that Ballydoyle was subjected to? |
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Im sure she will have been as they consider Miding to be suited to some give in the ground so you wouldnt want to wait till the ground firms up.
An interesting aside Midings full sister How makes her debut in the 6:10 @ Naas along with stable companion Brave Anna full siter to Hit It A Bomb and Roly Poly whose grandam Butterfly Cove is the Dam of Ballydoyle |
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It's quite clear from all comments in the press in recent weeks that Ballydoyle have suggested Minding is a little behind where Ballydoyle is. There doesn't seem to be anything ambiguous about what they have said so far. This doesn't mean however that Minding won't dot up on Sunday as she obviously has the highest rating and best form. What I would say though is if anyone is backing either M or B and expecting they'll win then i'd not be worried about their lack of prep run like AOB's other winners have had because they have started this season with double the strike rate they've averaged for the last 5 seasons. For whatever reason, they have a lot of their horses ready early on thus far. Not what we have come to expect the last few years.
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