From guineas media meet

"Minding is very talented and has done very well over the winter, but equally Ballydoyle too," he said. "There's a really high quality level of Classic fillies this year. Our representatives on Sunday were one-two-three in the Moyglare at two - if that could be replicated again on Sunday, it would be wonderful.

"They're all well and if you saw the Morning Line on Saturday, Ballydoyle did a very nice piece of work, but Minding did as well. Unfortunately it didn't lend itself to the two of them being… they weren't working together and they couldn't be both filmed at the same time, but I can assure you that Minding did an exceptional piece too.

Given those comments from O'Brien and assuming Moore picks Minding I'm wondering if the decision to run Ballydoyle as well is actually as much (or more) to do with getting her cherry ripe for the French Guineas (or maybe Irish Guineas).
She was beaten first time up last season and ran regularly after that so clearly thrived on racing so while a 2 week break to France isn't perfect it's maybe not a deal breaker.

ILLUMINATE, a general 14-1 for the Qipco 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday, will not run if conditions are too soft, trainer Richard Hannon has warned.

The daughter of Zoffany was unbeaten on her first three starts as a two-year-old, which came on good to firm.

She was then second to fellow Classic contender Lumiere in the Cheveley Park Stakes and was sixth when trying a mile for the first time in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on her last appearance.

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1,000 Guineas card and betting
"She's in good form and did a piece of work with [last week's bet365 Mile winner] Toormore at Manton a week ago and went fine," said Hannon, who trains the three-year-old for Denford Stud.

"But the rain around is not ideal and if it's soft ground we won't be able to run her and have to wait for the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

"I was really pleased with her Breeders' Cup run and it was soft ground out there. She stayed on well and is six months older and more mature. When we do run her over a mile we can ride her differently."

Hannon has yet to secure a jockey for Illuminate, partnered by Frankie Dettori on her last two outings.

"We're not sure," he added on At The Races. "Frankie might be available, but it's all on the weather. If I could have anything I'd have the weather - you can get a jockey for a good filly no problem."

The ground at Newmarket is described as good and sunny spells and showers are forecast this week.

if illuminate and maybe ballydoyle not running got to b sum value each way at minute mix and mingle being one

ballydoyle looking doubtful at minute

Not a bean to back Ballydoyle win or place all gone

err.. wtf !?

This is what I have from today

"The plan is to run all three unless anything unforeseen ground-wise happens," said O'Brien.

"We know that Minding handles the ease well whereas Ballydoyle is not as effective on easier ground. They were very close as two-year-olds.

"I would imagine Ryan will ride Minding as he was very impressed with her last year. I think he was more impressed with Minding than Ballydoyle when he rode her."


Could it be that Ryan Moore wants to split them ?

Coolmore said the English was the one they want to win

that's about all that could explain this imo

Trying to work out which Coolmore runners are going to give their best at any time is something I enjoy doing. I don't have a lot of success in working them out but I'm fascinated by a thoroughbred operation that apparently centres on breeding but is owned by men with such strong ties to the gambling world.
During the time that I've followed Coolmore I've heard many quotes from Aiden O'Brien that would direct punters towards backing a certain horse of theirs into favouritism, only to see that horse run deplorably and then win at a later date when apparently not expected to.
When Declaration Of War came over for the 2013 Lockinge the pre-race quotes were positive re the horse's chance, but with hindsight it was easy to see that the run was a prep for the Queen Anne.
Bracelet and Tapestry (4/1 fav with plenty of positive pre-race stable comments for the benefit of punters) ran terrible races in the 2014 1000 Guineas, yet both those horses won Group 1's later that season, going around at 8/1 and 10/1 with no positive comments from the stable to steer punters towards them. There are plenty of similar examples.
The media is partly/equally to blame for punters getting sucked in. They ask bland and cliche'd questions and it's easy for trainers to give answers they're expected to.
I hear and read a lot of pundits and commentators, from the media and in forums, making excuses following a poor run, with many saying that O'Brien wasn't to know the horse would run below par, and he was simply telling it how it was pre-race. The ground happened to be unsuitable, the pace was muddling when the horse needed a strong gallop, the horse was galloped on, the jockey couldn't get a run. There is a library of excuses that the trainer can quote from and they are so well worn that they roll easily off the tongue and are accepted by stewards and punters alike.
Coolmore have 3 fillies in Sunday's 1000 Guineas. O'Brien is making encouraging comments re the chances of 2 of them, and not a mention of the 3rd. Perhaps I'm alone in thinking that his silence re one of them says more about that horse's chances than do his positive comments regarding the other 2.
His 3 fillies all look talented enough to give this race a shake although I wouldnt be surprised if none of them win. Win or fail, they will head in different directions after Newmarket and a poor run on Sunday will only lengthen their prices for their actual targets later in the season.

Latest BBC forecast says the mai  band of rain that was originally expected on Friday is now going to pass well south of Newmarket and other than some squally April showers today and the odd shower later on there is very little rain forecast. Reckon at the very worst good-good to soft places on Saturday, Good on Sunday. Might even be on the quick side come Sunday.

Evee - You sum it up well. They simply shouldn't be trusted. Saturday was a new low, even for them.

GILLJAYSMOUSE is correct in saying Coolmore are under no obligation to tell us anything. It must be remembered though, it is in their best interests to have punters investing money on their horses when they won't be running at their best, and ignoring their horses when they are ready to win. With their ties to betting exchanges and bookmaking firms it is very much a win-win situation for them to have their winners go around unbacked, and their losers to be punted heavily.
To some degree this is the same for all trainers that like to bet on their own horses. Leading the betting public astray is part of the game and they will often refrain from mentioning that their horse is ready to win in case it affects the betting market. However Coolmore are in the unique position of also benefitting when their horses lose (although this will be denied).

They don't manipulate books - that's nonsense - they're actually very very fair in their comments.

John Magnier runs the show and he doesn't gamble. That's basically it.

I remember the Declaration of War fiasco, but at the same time there were legitimately 100ks bet, you could have backed anything against him, but it was Aidan's first real go with a War Front and he left him short, a long way.

I also remember Aidan screaming from the rooftops that he'd never had a Derby horse like Australia, who won the Derby,

He also said Camelot would win the Derby, he won the Derby.

He said Found would go for the Arc and be a strong player in the 2nd half of the season, she was 100/1 then and ended up beating Golden Horn.


That syndicate build stallions - so probably £75mio a year they need to clear to break even. What drop in a bucket would betting manage for that.

And as for the Declaration of War .. that was not Tabor/Smith but others associated and they lost a fortune, there's a lot of people attached who bet a lot that you've never heard of, and they don't speak to the press

Connections of Coolmore do manipulate the betting market from recent experiences eg Giovanni Canaletto, Bondi Beach, Order Of St George in the 2015 Epsom Derby day.

There would be quite a serious backlash from punters if Ballydoyle did not run if the Going was Good after that Channel 4 piece last weekend. I think she will run, otherwise that whole interview will be looked upon as thoroughly misleading.

y is ballydoyle so weak on ere

the forecast is nowhere near as bad so surely they ave to run her now

They sound v bullish on Minding, but Ballydoyle will put it up to her on better ground

8mm overnight. Drying day today though