Amazing that she had the pace to keep tabs early on with Luminere   -  was all over at halfway.

Very disappointing run from Lumiere but Minding looked like she could've won at any stage. Looks nailed on to get 12f in my view, difficult to see anything coming along to better that form before the Oaks, as long as she recovers well from this race it's hard to envisage her getting beat there. I'd expect better Derby contenders but very much doubt Coolmore would aim her there anyway. Well done winners.

wd winners, what a performance - Jamesp the one thing I'm surprised you might have missed is that was Ballydoyle's third run in the tongue-tie, whereas yday AFB was first time out,

great thread, intrigued though by this...

" Charlton2005 • May 1, 2016 3:29 PM BST
laid ballydoyle e/w. no chance at these odds

backed illumate and fireglow e/w"

" Charlton2005 • May 1, 2016 3:48 PM BST
boom "

Preliminary figures on Minding show that providing she stays (pedigree says she will, as do sectionals) she would win most Oaks. I'm dead against fillies running in the Derby ever since the Cape Verdi decision to pass on the Oaks. I did all my research back then and the record of fillies in the Derby is piss poor. Trying to influence Sheikh Mo through a torrent of emails (I'd backed her for the Oaks)was a total waste of time.

every form and time guru can be wrong, just look at yesterdays 2000 result, but the guys who were putting up some of the horses to beat Minding was mind-boggling, after it beat Ballydoyle in Ireland, people were concentrating on excuses for the defeat instead of thinking, this is a machine, and it got even better next time, anybody who concentrates on ante-post betting should be worth a fortune today, especially if you only bet on the 1000 guineas. cheers.

I did warn you bairn.

Ballydoyle was clearly ridden to not win. There's no doubt about that. Just the way it is really. Minding impressive. WD those who backed.

If Air Force Blue had bolted up yesterday, as many people said they expected him to, exactly the same thing could've been said about the punters who opposed him.

I think Ballydoyle would have won this with a clear run. Just watched the race again a couple of times and its clear that Moore had already got to work on Minding while Ballydoyle was still pulling double blocked in at the back.

A poor ride from Heffernan? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, the apparent plum draw worked against him. A split second miss on the gates opening and the field were already making their way across him.

How does Buick get away with flagrant abuse of the rules. He was supposed to run in a straight line up to the orange marker pole. Whats the point in having rules and then ignore them

Minding was awesome but quite surprised she is Evens for the Oaks.

No offence mate but you only had Minding 3rd best of APOB's for a long time with also other stables hosses backed around 9 in total and you mentioned covering on Minding? I have a lot of experience antepost and would be amazed if you broke even.


jamesp
jamesp 01 May 16 16:29 Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Well, Aidan O'Brien has finally managed to win the race with a top-class two-year-old, putting to bed the notion that he can't get them ready first time out in the Guineas.  Getting the 1-2-3 was a remarkable training performance.  I thought that Ballydoyle was given too much to do.  Lumiere and Illuminate blatantly failed to stay.  A very satisfactory result from the betting point of view... Happy

Eric, I don't need to justify my betting strategy, I've been betting antepost for over 30 years, but for your information I had several bets on Minding last autumn at 14/1 and 10/1, and a further top-up at 5/1. She ended up being the sixth best winner in my book after Lumiere, Illuminate, Nathra, Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks. I made £3,931 profit on the race. How did you do on the race?

I dont read this as a 4k profit mathematically ..


jamesp25 Aug 15 08:06Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
The Gr.2 Debutante Stakes looked a high-class and competitive renewal beforehand, so it was no surprise to see the impressive winner Ballydoyle installed as the new favourite for next year's Guineas.  She has clearly improved considerably since her narrow defeat in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she took an age to reach top gear (perhaps, in retrospect, she was still showing signs of greenness on that occasion), and following her bloodless maiden victory at Newmarket she looked a completely different filly this time, showing plenty of natural speed and smart acceleration to dismiss some very useful opponents in a very respectable winning time.  This full sister to Misty For Me (multiple Gr.1 winner over 8-10f) should have no trouble getting a mile and should be capable of winning at the top level.  The post-race quotes of 10-1 for the Guineas seemed fair enough (in the context of the cramped antepost odds we've come to expect from bookmakers over the last few years), so I've added her to my portfolio of bets for next year's race (alongside Illuminate and Lumiere, with a smaller wager on Tanaza), despite the obvious worries about the trainer's ability to get a fancied filly ready for the race.  (I wonder whether others, like me, were repeatedly knocked back by bookmakers and had trouble getting their bets on in full, though I did eventually manage to get my entire bet on at 10-1 by spreading it among several different firms, before they all cut the price to 8-1!!.)  I guess the next stop will be the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, and it will take a very smart filly to beat her there.

There didn't appear to be any obvious hard luck stories for the beaten runners, but Alice Springs (now out to 25-1 for the Guineas) ran a bit freely and was unable to confirm earlier Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes form with Turret Rocks.  Runner-up Minding showed a lot of promise without being able to match the winner's speed.  Most Beautiful failed to improve for the step up to 7f and (despite her pedigree) looks a speedy type who may benefit from a drop back to 6f.

The Gr.3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville cut up quite badly and the form looks quite ordinary, with the Hannon-trained duo Great Page and Marenko fighting out a tight finish.  No Guineas clues either in the Gr.1 Prix Morny, where Pascal Bary's filly Tourny was outclassed (and possibly unsuited by the soft ground), finishing well beaten behind Shalaa.

The well regarded Coolmore made an encouraging debut in the mile fillies' maiden at the Curragh and should come on considerably for the experience.

Latest Guineas betting (best available odds from six leading bookmakers): 8-1 Ballydoyle, 16-1 Illuminate, Lumiere, Tanaza, Besharah, 25-1 bar


jamesp13 Sep 15 15:48Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Oh dear  My initial thought is that Ballydoyle didn't find much on the dead ground there.  Perhaps she's better on fast ground.  All the same, it's disappointing that she had Minding in trouble, but then got tired in the closing stages.  Did Alice Springs put up an improved performance for the application of the hood?  Or was Ballydoyle below her best?



jamesp13 Sep 15 16:46Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
It looks like the ground is fairly testing up the straight (the winning time was 5s slower than standard), and I suspect that both Tanaza and Blue Bayou (and, more obviously, Great Page and Now Or Never) ran below their previous best.  I also think that Joseph O'Brien may have been ill-advised in trying to repeat the forcing tactics that worked so successfully on board Ballydoyle in the Debutante Stakes.  Trying to make all in that ground was always going to be a bit risky, with the possibility that she would get tired in the closing stages.  I'm therefore not wholly convinced that the form should be taken at face value.  It's quite possible that Ballydoyle will be able to reverse the form with different tactics on quicker ground.  Ladbrokes were far from convinced, offering Minding at a stand-out 14-1 for the Guineas (had a saver at those odds) (subsequently cut to 10-1).  Alice Springs looks a tricky ride: she didn't seem to want to go through with her effort.  Most bookmakers now go 8-1 joint favourites Ballydoyle and Minding (the latter is 10-1 with a couple of firms), and it's 16-1 bar.



jamesp13 Sep 15 17:47Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Yes, it sounds like they still regard Ballydoyle as their best filly.

There have been remarkably few classy performances over 6f+ by juvenile fillies so far this season.  Illuminate, Besharah and La Rioja have all impressed over 6f (though the last-named is very unlikely to be aimed at the Guineas).  Ballydoyle looked very good in the Debutante Stakes.  Antonoé was impressive over a mile in France.  But that's the sum total (so far).  But there are still a few weeks of the season to go.  The Rockfel, Cheveley Park Stakes, Fillies' Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac are all potentially significant Guineas pointers, and it's conceivable that something might pop up in one of the late-season Listed/Group 3 races.





jamesp27 Sep 15 23:23Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Coolmore is clearly on the upgrade (and still learning), but my initial impression is that this afternoon's Group 3 was quite an ordinary race, with only a length covering the first four home (and a 90-rated filly beaten 2½ lengths in fifth).  She looks a real staying type (only just getting up close home, outstaying the placed fillies) and I doubt if she will have the speed to be a Guineas filly.  Her jockey remarked afterwards that the filly would definitely get a mile and a quarter, while her trainer added that she is like her sister Marvellous as she stays well (the implication being that she is more of a staying type than her brother Gleneagles).  Marvellous won the Irish Guineas on soft ground (in a very slow time) and was then campaigned over 12f (in the Oaks and Irish Oaks), and I imagine that Coolmore will follow a similar path.  I thought the post-race quotes of 16-1 and 14-1 for the Guineas were plenty short enough, and I wouldn't be tempted to back her for the Guineas at this stage at those odds.  I still rate Ballydoyle and Minding as Aidan's main Guineas hopes at this stage (especially the former).


I have decided to have a 'saver' on Antonoé at 25-1 for the Guineas (the price has since been cut to 20-1).  The price reflects the possibility that she might be aimed at the French classics rather than Newmarket, but if she wins well on Sunday there will be an expectation that she will be aimed at the Guineas


It will be interesting to see the shape of the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile when final declarations are revealed later this morning.  Minding and Promising Run bring the best form, but John Gosden's filly Nathra was very impressive last time and I have backed her (as a 'saver' in my Guineas portfolio) at 25-1 for the Guineas



jamesp07 Oct 15 15:26Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Figgis, I take a slightly different view of the Moyglare result.  I got the impression that Ballydoyle's connections were very pleased with her effort there, as she wasn't suited by the sticky ground nearly so well as the winner.  I would confidently expect her to reverse placings with Minding on faster ground. 





jamesp15 Oct 15 16:36Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
It was hard not to have been impressed by Minding's victory in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile last weekend.  She was simply in a different league from the others, and the form looks very strong - I'm sure the runner-up Nathra is a smart filly in her own right, and she finished clear of the very useful Hawksmoor and Coolmore.  She will be champion two-year-old filly in Europe, and rightly so.  As far as the Guineas betting is concerned, it should be noted that her two latest wins at the top level have been on yielding ground, whereas on her previous start (on fast ground) she was comfortably beaten by her stablemate Ballydoyle.  One imagines that the state of the ground will dictate early season classic targets next year for these two smart fillies: Minding is likely to go where there is some cut in the ground, while Ballydoyle will go where there is faster ground.  This makes ante-post betting very tricky for anyone who hasn't already taken a position on the race.  Latest betting: 7-2 Minding, 6-1 Ballydoyle, 8-1 Lumiere, 20-1 bar.  Coral's price of 20-1 Illuminate is surely too big - she was coming back from an 11-week break when beaten half a length by Lumiere in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she came to win the race and just got tired in the final 100 yards.  She's doesn't have as much physical scope as the winner, but she should get the mile (her prep race over 7f at Newbury should tell us whether she'll get the trip) and is a smart and progressive filly (officially rated 114), so 20-1 is way too big (she's generally 14-1 with other firms).





jamesp19 Mar 16 13:48Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Although the amounts being traded on Betfair are very small at this time of year, it's interesting to note recent price movements concerning the Aidan O'Brien-trained entries.  Ballydoyle has been quite weak for some weeks now and is currently trading at 9.4 (to back), with no one wanting to back her in the 'lay' column (just a couple of quid at 19.5 and 20).  The favourite Minding, on the other hand, remains solid at around 3.65, having been matched at bigger prices in recent weeks, though there are only small amounts in the 'lay' column.  Alice Springs (last matched at 50, nothing in the 'lay' column) and Coolmore (last matched at 75) are very weak.  There has been no move for any of Aidan's other entries.  So it looks as though people are still expecting Minding to be the one, but it should not be forgotten that she was comfortably beaten by Ballydoyle when the pair met on 'good to firm' ground in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last August.  It's quite likely that Ballydoyle was unsuited by the yielding ground when Minding reversed placings next time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.  On fast ground it would be no surprise to see Ballydoyle reverse the Moyglare Stud Stakes form, but (as we all know) it's impossible to predict whether any of these fillies will be 'forward' enough to do themselves justice on Guineas day...




jamesp22 Mar 16 11:13Joined: 05 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 2,112 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
Recent bookmaker price movements: Lumiere's odds were trimmed a few weeks ago and she is now 6/1 (5/1 in a place) (she was a general 8/1 shot over the winter); Illuminate has recently been cut by Coral to 16/1 (from a stand-out 25/1) and is now generally 14/1-16/1 (20/1 in a place). Minding's odds have been cut by most firms and she is now a top price 11/4 (from 3/1). Ballydoyle has been pushed out to 8/1 (from 6/1) by Power.

In view of Criquette Head-Maarek's record in the 1000 Guineas, Midweek is a very interesting runner.  She ran promisingly on debut (despite finishing well adrift of the smart Antonoé) and stepped up on that effort next time, running out a comfortable winner over a mile at Saint-Cloud (heavy ground, slow winning time).  The form is nothing special, but she's superbly bred (by Motivator out of a half-sister to Reams Of Verse and Elmaamul), so if she shows enough speed to win (or run well) on Thursday, we could well see her line up for the Guineas.  I've had a little bit of 50/1 and 40/1 for the Guineas

Look Eric, I don't see that there is a requirement to post every single bet on here. I backed every single one of the 16 runners plus six non-runners in the race. I would have made at least a few hundred pounds whatever the result, even if Epsom Icon had won the race. When I mention 'covering' bets, it doesn't just end there, I continue to invest and add to my portfolio of bets. Bets on Minding included £500 @ 14/1 and £800 @ 10/1. Total stakes this year exceeded £15,000, with a return of £19,000. If you don't believe me, I'll send you a complete list of my bets, including the stakes, odds and dates, plus aggregated data for all Betfair Exchange and **** betting activity on the race. I prefer to keep these details private, but since you have publicly questioned my integrity I have set out the figures here. I don't take kindly to your insinuation.

Bets on non-runners: actually more than just six (I was thinking only of the bets struck with bookmakers), there were some additional ones (to small stakes at big odds) here on Betfair.

No evidence required. You deserve every penny of your profit.

have you guys thought, that if Ballydoyle had used up her speed early to keep up with Lumiere and Midweek she may not have finished so well. cheers.

Oh and on posting up bets it is worth either posting all your bookie bets or none on here. Obviously the exchange amounts are very small by comparison before the race for tweaks to your book so dont need mentioning.

James, there is only one person questioning your results and that's Eric. We'll see what he achieves in the Derby given he has taken to posting his bets again after a 2 year hiatus.

Re watching  the race a few times Given the swap in draws and the same run of the race that would have been mighty close between Minding and Ballydoyle.
Moore said they didnt go a great pace so that disadvantaged  Ballydoyle with the run trapped on the rail.
Good to see the form book hold up with the 123 as they finished in the Moyglare.

Thats the beauty of exchanges especially for  the guineas you can still build a good portfolio and green book whatever the outcome if you keep your eye on the ball not the case or as easy with cheltenham i find.

Likewise as james with the changing conditions/drying ground I had Minding down the pecking order with Illuminate/Balldoyle/ALice Springs/Turret Rocks ahead just on a price basis on the day of the race.

James you dont have to prove anything to anyone re your bets .Keep up the good invaluable work and contribution allways an interesting read.
Ignore Eric(graham) he thinks hes the king of antepost