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1000 GUINEAS (2016)
1000 GUINEAS (2016)
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Replies: 487
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Antonoe readily beat @ Chantilly. Very much doubt she will travel to Newmarket.
Qemah impressive |
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Yes, Antonoé failed to put herself forward as a candidate for the Guineas, travelling well but then finding little under pressure. Pascal Bary had warned that the filly would need the race, but even so this was rather disappointing. She probably wants better ground. The winner Qemah, providing a welcome boost the Prix Marcel Boussac form of Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks, was taken out of the Guineas at yesterday's forfeit stage.
It now looks a bit more likely that Khalid Abdullah's other Guineas entry Midweek may be allowed to take her chance at Newmarket, so I have topped up at 40/1. Yesterday's Maisons-Laffitte winner Come Alive remains a possible Guineas runner for André Fabre and Godolphin: they will see how she recovers from yesterday's exertions before making a decision. |
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GILLJAYSMOUSE
Re: Minding I'm sure the trainer says Ballydoyle will stick to fast ground, and if Minding runs in the 1000G then the former will head to France. |
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note that now or never being sent to chantilly specifically so she will get the softer ground...so i reckon if its gd at HQ and good/soft in france theyd def prefer ballydoyle at HQ
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I hope so lol....lumieres a steal e/w at 5-1 in my eyes
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With 9mm of rain expected on 28th and 2mm prior to 1st May the ground is very unlikely to be good to firm; anyway on good ground Minding had the measure of Ballydoyle. Also, the former has progressed since being beaten by the latter on good to firm ground.
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Well they both went on to win G1s so little between them Id say. Given ballydoyle a multiple of the price i think much better bet given there is only one day of proper rain forecast over a week away
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Ground was good at Chantilly yesterday having been heavy just ten days previously.
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BALLYDOYLE big drifter in the market.
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Ballydoyle sparkling piece of work and likely runner
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Where did you see this news, geoff?
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Saw the gallop live on Cnannel 4 this morning blew her galloping companion away and Aiden delighted and said on that evidence likely runner. Just needs to speak to Seamie heffernan to confirm
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Thanks Geoff. That explains why she was in demand again this morning just when I'd decided to LAY her on the basis of the weather forecast in Newmarket in the next few days (cool, showery at times). I'd been backing her at odds up to 18/1 on here in the last few weeks and decided to lay some of it off at much shorter prices. Oh well, just bad timing on my part! Now 13/2 from 10/1 with Power.
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Will this affect Minding's participation, I wonder? Aidan recently described Ballydoyle as being more forward than Minding.
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News on Minding coming up next after the break
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Yeah. That was impressive work. Very good constitution, and has gears.
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I think they will probably leave both in .
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Nathra must be a serious doubt if Minding and Ballydoyle are intended.
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I'm sure no decisions will be made until the last possible moment.
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Not sure that they would necessarily want to run both the Group 1 winners at Newmarket.
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Yes, it would be very tempting to run Nathra in France, where she would probably have a favourite's chance (in the absence of both Ballydoyle and Minding).
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I guess that Turret Rocks would probably also head to France now.
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It sounds like Ballydoyle will definitely run at HQ (so long as the ground is suitable). Aidan was not quite so adamant about Minding: he said that Newmarket remains the 'plan', but that doesn't necessarily mean she's certain to run...!
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Ballydoyle continues to shorten: now 5/1 from 13/2 with Power. But what if the ground is slow/dead by next Sunday??
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Ballydoyle was 15.0 on here last night when i looked....will be interesting to see if Minding runs
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According to Aiden Minding is a runner. Sounds like both will take there place.
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Link to Ballydoyles gallop this morning
https://twitter.com/Channel4Racing/status/723790086660231169 |
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I interpreted Aidan's comments slightly differently. He said that Minding would start off over a mile and that the plan at the moment was to run her at Newmarket. A few days ago he revealed that she wasn't quite as forward as Ballydoyle. My guess is that Minding will probably run at Newmarket, but it's by no means a certainty. If the ground is good or faster, I suspect that Minding would be run off her feet - it would be a question of whether she could get into contention in the final furlong. In any case, I would expect Ballydoyle to beat Minding over a mile on quick ground.
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Going updated this morning ground currently good @9:45.
I think only ground the fast side of good would prevent them running Minding and only soft prevent Ballydoyle. As you stated earlier James plenty of showers around. All depends how much rain and how close to the day |
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Good ground @ the prices id rather be with Ballydoyle @ 6s than Minding @ 7/4
If Ballydoyle turns up on the day can see her going off 7/2 ish. Be interesting to see which Ryan selects? |
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Yes, I agree. Ground will probably remain good, with intermittent showers forecast for next week. It wouldn't surprise me if Ryan chose to ride Ballydoyle in preference to Minding. Minding was shockingly poor value at around 6/4 prior to this news.
There are remarkably few confirmed runners at this stage. The only ones I can identify as intended or probable runners at the moment are Ballydoyle, Minding, Lumiere, Illuminate (unless the ground is yielding) and Blue Bayou. No decision has been made about Nathra. Jim Bolger indicated recently that Turret Rocks would probably run at Newmarket, but she could be re-routed to France. Alice Springs is a possible third string for Coolmore. Robanne is a possible runner. Godolphin have yet to decide about First Victory and Come Alive. Khalid Abdullah is yet to decide about Midweek and Antonoé. No news about Thetis or Love Potion (the latter is also entered in the Athasi Stakes on 2 May). Now Or Never, Fireglow, Aljazzi and Shaden are all doubtful. |
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Great news about Ballydoyle (got her at an average of 15.46 for reasonable money) always felt she would run if the going was decent, and while there are some showers forecast it looks predominantly dry and cool from what I can see on the various online weather forecasts.
Obviously will know the wetaher with more accuracy in a couple of days time but if it does look positive on the weather front I might go in big at 5/1+ (if still available) with a view to lay off for a free bet as I can see Minding being a n/r if it's mainly dry and Ryan Moore being on board Ballydoyle so could be 3/1 or less on the day. With Minding having the Oaks as a big target can see her going to France or just running in an Oaks trial like the Musidora. |
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I cant see Minding turning up at Epsom, the likelihood of it not being good to firm there in June is slim in my opinion. However the Arc de Triomphe could be interesting. I will be suprised if Minding runs in the 1000 if im honest, well done to the peeps who have got Ballydoyle at decent prices...im still happy with Lumiere...gonna be a great race
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I've backed Ballydoyle myself this morning. I'm convinced by her work, but i have a feeling that stable money is on Minding. It's just a seed of doubt i have. I suppose all we can do is wait.
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There have been plenty of supposedly ''soft ground'' horses run at Epsom because, a) it is the most important classic for breeding purposes, and b) because the ground there, despite being quick, has a beautifully cushioned surface. If you are going to risk a horses on ''unsuitable quick'' ground then you do it in an Oaks or Derby.
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Like several others on this thread I was quick off the mark this morning and backed Ballydoyle, win only, at 10s with PP, posted on the Flat thread. On the day however i'm still intending to back Lumiere.
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Current weather forecast is so hard to read
 - a couple of definite bands of rain/sleet and lots of sunshine and showers so could easily be good to soft or worse, but equally if the showers miss the Rowley mile it could be good or slightly better. Still hard for the forecasters to be sure what the weather will do next weekend. It's also very cold so it won't dry out as quick as usual.I can't believe they will run both Minding and Ballydoyle and the market on here seems equally confused with hardly anything on the lay side for either horse. I'll watch the Countyfile forecast tonight and if they suggest a fair bit of rain I'll lay off my position on Ballydoyle while I can. Obviously if it does get softer that won't suit Lumiere or Illuminate either - so it's not all bad news for Coolmore.  My biggest winner is still Alice Springs so hopefully she definitely goes as the number 2 runner for Coolmore. |
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I don't think it is to hard to envisage both Minding and Ballydoyle running tbh. It's possible Minding could be prepping for the Oaks and Ballydoyle is trying for the Guineas. That's if the ground is deemed suitable for both to run.
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Midweek impressed in her gallop at Chantilly yesterday, skipping clear of her work companions, and is an intended runner in the Guineas next Sunday.
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There's a possibility that Jet Setting, winner of the Leopardstown Guineas trial on heavy ground, might be supplemented tomorrow. Testing ground seems to be the key to this filly, however, and I wouldn't fancy her chances on good ground. We'll find out shortly whether she's been supplemented...
Anyone heard anything about Thetis?? Is she an intended runner? |