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1000 GUINEAS (2016)
1000 GUINEAS (2016)
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"She would have the option to go to America for the (Breeders' Cup) Juvenile, but the boys will decide that themselves.
Not sure if that's a serious consideration or just more 'the world is this horse's oyster' O'Brien speak. |
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Figgis, I take a slightly different view of the Moyglare result. I got the impression that Ballydoyle's connections were very pleased with her effort there, as she wasn't suited by the sticky ground nearly so well as the winner. I would confidently expect her to reverse placings with Minding on faster ground. The Boussac form looks solid, though (admittedly) nothing special for the grade. Difficult to compare the 6f and 8f form, but there are still some doubts about Lumiere lasting a mile (though she's in the best possible hands to enable her to learn to relax and settle better in her races, which will help her chances). Connections regard Ballydoyle as their Guineas filly next year. I expect that she will get 10f but maybe not much further. I wouldn't have any worries about her going to the Breeders' Cup (two recent Guineas winners were beaten there as two-year-olds), but she's had plenty of races this season and deserves a break.
Re: Coolmore, I got the distinct impression that the runner-up was getting tired in the closing stages of the Weld Park Stakes last time and that the winner was staying on past tired horses rather than quickening. We'll find out more on Friday, but I regard her as the stable second string (which appears to be confirmed by jockey bookings). Even if she wins the stamina test on Friday, I see her more as an Oaks filly than a Guineas one at this stage. |
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Jamesp, yes I agree that Coolmore still viewed Ballydoyle (I'm sure they're taking the piss with these names) as their better filly after the Moyglare and I'd agree with them. I'd take her over the winner in future races, depending on price of course. Although I'm not sure I buy the excuse about the ground, as I have her running almost exactly as fast performance wise as she did on her previous win. I just think sometimes a horse can run above its regular ability, like a tennis player or football team, etc, can occasionally perform better than their usual standard, and I think that's what happened with Minding on the day.
I also agree about Lumiere and the mile, I've taken a positive view of her chances of getting it but I could be wrong. Can't say I'm generally a big fan of her yard either but they did have success with Attraction a few years ago, who was another that had raced no further than 6f as a 2yo so I'm hoping they can repeat the feat. |
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the fillies mile once again gives you the choice of potential or hard form, this time I'm giving Nathra a real good chance on potential, although I am still backing what I consider to be the best 2yo filly this season in Minding, you guys on here know more about stats, breeding, speed figures, going etc. than I'll ever know, but I don't know how you can knock Mindings form, I'm baffled. this race could easily be the best race of the season. cheers.
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The bairn, I'm not knocking Minding's form, I think she won fair and square last time. Coolmore made excuses about the ground for Ballydoyle but I have her running to form. It's just that sometimes I watch a race and give it a decent racing but think I'm not sure if the winner will be capable of quite hitting that mark again. Sometimes it's because of how the race panned out, or how hard the horse had to run to hit that figure, the fact that its other form hasn't been as good, connections don't seem to rate the horse that highly, etc. It seems to me that variations in performance are more accepted in other sports but in racing a race is either marked down or excuses made for the beaten runners on account of conditions.
Anyway, it's just my feeling about Minding that while she beat Ballydoyle last time and in my view that filly had no excuse I wouldn't bank on Minding confirming the form in future, but I could be wrong  |
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lewisham ranger
If coolmore runs she wins and they won't be able to contain her turn of foot up the hill. LR, what makes you so confident about her? Like many people I suppose, because of her name and the fact she seemed to be fancied on debut I thought she was one to watch out for but haven't been impressed since. If there was one filly in this field that looks too short on what she's done I'd say it was her. Can't see how she should be shorter than Promising Run in some places. |
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I just think they called her Coolmore for a reason mate
It's like this filly Ballydoyle, they know these horses are the bollox. I know you think they are messing about with the names but one thing this outfit never does is things randomly, it's all worked out Also she does all her best work at the finish, look at her run last time, she finished like a train. Which is ideal for Newmarket in october with the stiff finish. And she's got another furlong to go over as well. I just think different rules are applied at this track. You have to take into consideration horses that love an uphill finish, that are stoutly bred, and that are going to appreciate a step up in trip. All factors that Coolmore fits into. Look at this Sanus Per Aqqum, ok that horse is probably overfaced in the Dewhurst, but how on earth did it even win last time. all it does is stay and battle, would it have won that race last time at any other track? |
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Judging by her racing style she'll probably trade at 1000-1 in running though!
 any thoughts on the oh so sharp stakes? I've backed first victory, was very impressed by her maiden win and looks the stamp of her sire. |
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The Oh So Sharp looks interesting but a bit too open and difficult for me.
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I take a position that Ballydoyle is far superior to the other Coolmore Galileo fillies in the Fillies Mile and that Promising Run is over rated, and therefore, see one of the up in grade fillies improving past them. Usually the race goes to already proven stakes fillies but on consideration that Roger Varian has a good percentage call in 2yo Group 1’s and doesn’t over face his runners, I have had a small punt on his really promising filly Dawn of Hope over the Luca Cumani and John Gosden pair.
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Roger Varian- “Dawn Of Hope won in the style of a good filly at Ascot and has trained nicely since. It is obviously a big step up in grade but it looks an open race and we feel she deserves to take her chance.”
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I take a position that Ballydoyle is far superior to the other Coolmore Galileo fillies in the Fillies Mile
Why did minding beat her last time then? |
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well minding walked it, looked very impressive in doing so.
least I got the oh so sharp stakes right. |
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Minding very impressive and Ryan Moore obviously thinks she is top draw. Promising Run left her promising runs behind her.
lewisham ranger- I think if you look at the form between Minding and Ballydoyle you'll answer your question.Kind regards. |
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LR, well done on First Victory.
Minding proved that last time was no fluke, she was very impressive visually and if today's form can be taken at face value she's improving at a rate of knots, with today's win putting her firmly ahead of the rest. The thing that stops me getting carried away with the performance is the time. The Cornwallis and Challenge Stakes were both won by my top rated runners but I'd have to take a very optimistic view of the form in those races to rate the Fillies Mile any higher. It was definitely a decent performance by Minding on the clock but I can only rate it as good as her Moyglare win and the way the race was run means that she had every opportunity to run as fast as she could, so I'm not convinced she has improved since that. Whether that form is good enough or not you've got a nice bet, the bairn |
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Nice debut performance by Raymonda yesterday - though Dermot Weld is unlikely to be aiming at the English 1,000.
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It was hard not to have been impressed by Minding's victory in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile last weekend. She was simply in a different league from the others, and the form looks very strong - I'm sure the runner-up Nathra is a smart filly in her own right, and she finished clear of the very useful Hawksmoor and Coolmore. She will be champion two-year-old filly in Europe, and rightly so. As far as the Guineas betting is concerned, it should be noted that her two latest wins at the top level have been on yielding ground, whereas on her previous start (on fast ground) she was comfortably beaten by her stablemate Ballydoyle. One imagines that the state of the ground will dictate early season classic targets next year for these two smart fillies: Minding is likely to go where there is some cut in the ground, while Ballydoyle will go where there is faster ground. This makes ante-post betting very tricky for anyone who hasn't already taken a position on the race. Latest betting: 7-2 Minding, 6-1 Ballydoyle, 8-1 Lumiere, 20-1 bar. Coral's price of 20-1 Illuminate is surely too big - she was coming back from an 11-week break when beaten half a length by Lumiere in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she came to win the race and just got tired in the final 100 yards. She's doesn't have as much physical scope as the winner, but she should get the mile (her prep race over 7f at Newbury should tell us whether she'll get the trip) and is a smart and progressive filly (officially rated 114), so 20-1 is way too big (she's generally 14-1 with other firms).
It will be interesting to see how Yakaba performs in the Gr.2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte tomorrow. She's won three of her four starts (the only failure coming when she got 'stage fright' in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin) and is likely to start second favourite (behind Jom Bolger's smart and unbeaten colt Smash Williams). She's reportedly Freddy Head's fastest two-year-old (of either sex), but on breeding (by Medicean out of a winning miler) should get 7f and maybe a mile next year, so if she manages to beat the favourite tomorrow I guess we're likely to see her in the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence next April (ahead of a possible tilt at the Guineas). |
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Jim Bolger
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Pruieless would still be interesting at 33s if she wins today,bit to prove after last run..
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all quiet on the rumour front so far, which is pretty good to hear. cheers.
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Just two months to the big race. Full list of entries will be out shortly, but it's already been revealed that there are at least 11 French-trained entries this year: Antonoé (P.Bary), Come Alive (A.Fabre), Gherdaiya (A.Fabre), Left Hand (C.Laffon-Parias), Manasarova (F.Chappet), Midweek (C.Head-Maarek), Pleasemetoo (A.Fabre), Qemah (J-C.Rouget), Sasparella (C.Laffon-Parias), Trixia (A.de Royer Dupre), Yakaba (F.Head).
Antonoé, who suffered a minor pelvic injury in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac and was unable to give her running, remains a top-class prospect and looks the most interesting of the French entries. She had previously beaten Pleasemetoo and Gherdaiya in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale. Qemah, a strong-finishing third in the Boussac (only beaten 1½ lengths by Ballydoyle), and Trixia, unbeaten in four races last term and now trained by Alain de Royer Dupre, look best of the rest. |
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63 entries. Full list on Betfair Exchange and Racing Post site.
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Nemoralia the only surprising omission - they clearly decided that she would be unsuited by the Rowley Mile.
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Although the amounts being traded on Betfair are very small at this time of year, it's interesting to note recent price movements concerning the Aidan O'Brien-trained entries. Ballydoyle has been quite weak for some weeks now and is currently trading at 9.4 (to back), with no one wanting to back her in the 'lay' column (just a couple of quid at 19.5 and 20). The favourite Minding, on the other hand, remains solid at around 3.65, having been matched at bigger prices in recent weeks, though there are only small amounts in the 'lay' column. Alice Springs (last matched at 50, nothing in the 'lay' column) and Coolmore (last matched at 75) are very weak. There has been no move for any of Aidan's other entries. So it looks as though people are still expecting Minding to be the one, but it should not be forgotten that she was comfortably beaten by Ballydoyle when the pair met on 'good to firm' ground in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last August. It's quite likely that Ballydoyle was unsuited by the yielding ground when Minding reversed placings next time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. On fast ground it would be no surprise to see Ballydoyle reverse the Moyglare Stud Stakes form, but (as we all know) it's impossible to predict whether any of these fillies will be 'forward' enough to do themselves justice on Guineas day...
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Was just thinking something along the same lines jamesp surely they must be back in training and money talks. Which of the big bookmakers do you think is most insightful about Coolmore lot? A Laddies short one is a thing of the past.
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Minding (English Guineas) if going is not "concrete", according to AOB and Ballydoyle will stick to fast going and could go for the French Guineas if Minding goes for the English equivalent one.
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Yes, I've just read the reports of the post-racing workouts at the Curragh. It certainly sounds like Minding is now at the top of the pecking order (following that brilliant display in the Fillies' Mile), so she's likely to run at Newmarket, with Ballydoyle possibly heading for the French Guineas. But it will all depend on the state of the ground. I think they will be tempted to run Ballydoyle at HQ if it's on the fast side of good (especially if it's yielding over in France).
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Recent bookmaker price movements: Lumiere's odds were trimmed a few weeks ago and she is now 6/1 (5/1 in a place) (she was a general 8/1 shot over the winter); Illuminate has recently been cut by Coral to 16/1 (from a stand-out 25/1) and is now generally 14/1-16/1 (20/1 in a place). Minding's odds have been cut by most firms and she is now a top price 11/4 (from 3/1). Ballydoyle has been pushed out to 8/1 (from 6/1) by Power.
LOTO, I've no idea which of the big bookmakers (if any) is the most clued up about the Coolmore lot. So far, the recent price movements can be explained by public statements (following the Curragh work-outs). Interestingly, Ladbrokes have kept Ballydoyle at 4/1, while other firms have pushed her out to 6/1-8/1, and they are joint-biggest about Minding (at 11/4). |
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Richard Hannon on Illuminate: "She's extremely fast and I could see her running very well in the 1000 Guineas if the ground was quick."
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Interesting news that Pleasemetoo, recently purchased by Godolphin from David Smaga's yard and now in training with André Fabre, is being aimed at the Prix Imprudence on April 7th in preparation for a possible tilt at the Guineas. She was no match for the smart Antonoé (who is not entered for the Imprudence, but holds a Guineas entry) in last season's Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale and needs to find plenty of improvement to make an impact at the top level. Godolphin don't have much else to aim at the Guineas - First Victory (Saeed Bin Suroor), unbeaten in two starts last season, including the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, seems to be their only other realistic candidate. If they get genuinely soft ground at Maisons-Laffitte I'd strongly fancy the chance of Trixia in the Prix Imprudence.
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Updates for some of the French-trained entries:
Alain de Royer-Dupre is considering the 1000 Guineas for Trixia: "She has been entered in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte on April 7 and if she went there and ran well she would probably go to Newmarket." Carlos Laffon-Parias: "The 1000 Guineas could be on the agenda for either Sasparella or Left Hand but I would like to keep them apart. Sasparella will probably head for the Prix Imprudence, while we will find something else for Left Hand. If they both win their comeback races one will go to Newmarket and the other will run in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches." Andre Fabre: "Pleasemetoo has been entered in the Prix Imprudence and is a possible runner in the 1000 Guineas." Supplementary entry and forfeit stage for the Prix Imprudence is on Monday 4 April. The Prix de la Grotte (at Chantilly on 20 April) has attracted 1000 Guineas entries Antonoé, Midweek, Gherdaiya, Qemah, Come Alive, Pleasemetoo, Manasarova, Trixia, Left Hand, Sasparella and Yakaba. But the race comes just 11 days before the Guineas. Maybe one or two of these will be entered for the Nell Gwyn or the Dubai Duty Free Stakes. |
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Latest news regarding the Aidan O'Brien-trained entries: "The plan is to go straight to Newmarket with Minding. Ballydoyle could then go to the French Guineas. Ballydoyle would want it good or faster. If it's slow, Minding will handle it. She wouldn't want concrete but she's ground versatile. She kept progressing last year. Alice Springs will go for the fillies' trial at Leopardstown and we'll see after that."
Clearly, they won't run Ballydoyle on slow ground, but they will surely be tempted to run her at Newmarket if the ground is suitable (i.e. good or faster). |
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David Wachman's useful filly Most Beautiful, last seen when third to Ballydoyle in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes last August, holds an entry in the Listed 7f race at Dundalk on Friday evening, where her possible opponents include the smart colt Washington DC (runner-up to Air Force Blue in last season's Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes).
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looks like its nathra for mr seagulls only sadblokes at 20 and they don't take a bet
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I'm not convinced Minding is as good as she looked at HQ. All of AOB's 1k Guineas winners have had a prep too.
I've missed the price on Lumiere so i'll wait until she run's in the Fred Darling. |
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Lumiere wont be running in the Fred Darling mate. The Johnston camp have said today " she will have a racecourse gallop only and go straight to the guineas, anything other than first place will be a disappointment" .....probably why its being backed today. I hope it wins as i got it in a £50 treble @ 7-1 with Don Cossack @ 5-1 and Air Force Blue @ evens, plus ive bet her in singles. I agree with you that Minding looks better than what she is, ive watched Attractions 1000 guineas win (same trainer) and i think thats how the race could pan out. Just hoping for non softish ground.
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got these off the net,if of
interest to anyone. Minding 120p Lumiere 115p Besharah 114. |
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Lumiere going to Haydock for gallop
Grown in size as well the trainer has said |
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Trixia was pulled out of the Prix Imprudence at this morning's forfeit stage and is therefore unlikely to come over for the Guineas.
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Sasparella and Pleasemetoo were withdrawn from the Prix Imprudence this morning and must be considered doubtful for the Guineas.
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