thanks james, the french horses don't seem to have too much top form to recommend any of them. cheers.

I thought illuminate was bottoming out against Lumiere and Besharah, I too don't think she will get the trip, but surely the trainer knows better than me. cheers.

re: Illuminate, she was coming back from an 11-week absence when narrowly beaten by Lumiere in the Cheveley Park Stakes, and the soft ground was against her in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (beaten less than 3 lengths).  She's a very fast filly and not 100% certain to get a mile, but her breeding gives her a reasonable chance of getting the trip on fast ground - she's by Zoffany out of an unraced daughter of Green Desert and useful miler Queen Catherine (the dam is therefore a half-sister to 11f performer Lady Catherine).  If we get fast ground for the Guineas, I think she's in with a shout and is a decent each-way bet at 20/1 (I backed her at that price last June after the Albany Stakes).  If we get soft ground for the Guineas, she'll have no chance.

The plan for Antonoé is to run in the Prix de la Grotte at Chantilly (20 April) and "then we'll see".  If she were to win the Chantilly race (a traditional prep race for the French Guineas) in impressive fashion, I guess they would be tempted to bring her over for the Guineas, but there's only 11 days between the two races, so it's more likely that she would be kept for the French Guineas.  The owner has an alternative Newmarket entry in the shape of Criquette Head-Maarek's filly Midweek, a possible runner in the Prix Imprudence this week.  Antonoé is one of the few fillies with the potential to cause an upset at Newmarket: she looked a very smart filly in her first two races, and you can forget her run in the Prix Marcel Boussac (she sustained a minor pelvic injury, from which she has fully recovered).

Alice Springs will take plenty of beating in Sunday's 7f Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, for which there were 12 entries this morning.  The only other Newmarket Guineas entries engaged in Sunday's race are Californiadreaming, How High The Moon (stablemates of Alice Springs) and Now Or Never (last of nine to Minding in last season's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes). 

Michael O'Callaghan: "We’re delighted with her [Now Or Never] and she has wintered very well. She’s got a great middle on her now. The plan is to go to Leopardstown for the Guineas trial at the start of April. She’s a filly that doesn’t want fast ground and likes a bit of cut. I’m happy enough to draw a line through her run in the Moyglare as she had a very hard race in the Futurity just two weeks before that. She made all on heavy ground then and didn’t get a breather at all. We’re very pleased with her. She’s back in fast work and definitely seems to have trained on."

Think Victor Chandlers outfit will have more of an angle on the o'Brian horses now that M Tabor owns V/Chandlers.

VC are shortest about both Minding (9/4) and Ballydoyle (5/1), so that doesn't really tell us anything (except that they don't want to take money on either filly).

James, where did you find the Nell Gwyn entries? Can't seem em on RP site.

Midweek ran very well on her seasonal return this afternoon in the Gr.3 Prix Imprudence, making most of the running and keeping on strongly when headed (despite running about under pressure) to finish second (beaten three parts of a length), clear of some useful fillies behind.  The winning time was half a second faster than the Prix Djebel.  This performance may encourage connections to run her at Newmarket in the Guineas - if so, she would not be out of place.  She is a lovely scopey filly with considerable potential, who may prove more effective on better ground.

Nice cobweb clearing run from Alice Springs today. Back on fast ground with some headgear on and I think she will run a massive race in the 1000G

why isnt ballydoyle shorter for guineas/oaks - is she intended runner?

Unless it is quick ground Ballydoyle is more likely France bound, according to her trainer.

On fast ground I would fancy Ballydoyle to beat Minding, and Illuminate to beat Lumiere (a shame that the ground has turned against Illuminate in this afternoon's Nell Gwyn Stakes).  Hoping that Nathra does the business today, as I'm already on at 25/1 for the Guineas. I gather that she's well forward and in good shape. Her form looks much stronger than First Victory's, though the latter is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. Ashadihan, though off the track for a long time, looks overpriced at 20/1.

With Nathra winning easily today Minding just has the ground to beat otherwise plain sailing I'd think in the 1000 Guineas. And with Air Force Blue so short for the colt equivalent the ground is the only factor that could cause an upset in a short price double, unless of course Emotionless runs supersonically.

Exactly mate and as Mark Johnston said she had gone in her coat before she won the Cheveley Park, i think shes a great bet (im on at 7-1) Minding is an Oaks filly for sure but i can see Lumiere running her off her feet for the first 6 furlongs then holding on ....watch Attractions guineas win...same scenario i reckon....we all have our own opinions.

The trials have failed to throw up any new serious contenders for the Guineas, and it's becoming increasingly hard to look beyond the front six in the betting - Minding, Lumiere, Ballydoyle, Nathra, Illuminate and Turret Rocks.  Some people have been saying that the favourite Minding has only to turn up on Guineas day and it's all over (bar the shouting), but racing is never that straightforward.  For one thing, Aidan O'Brien's top-class two-year-old fillies have never managed to make an impact when making their seasonal reappearance in the Guineas: Qualify 12/1 finished last of 13 (2015); Tapestry 4/1F finished last of 17 (2014); Maybe 13/8F finished 3rd of 17, beaten 10 lengths (2012); Misty For Me 9/1 finished 11th of 18 (2011); Kitty Matcham 8/1 finished 9th of 15 (2008); Rumplestiltskin 3/1F finished 7th of 13 (2006); Necklace 8/1 finished 12th of 16 (2004); Quarter Moon 9/1 finished 5th of 17 (2002); Sunspangled 7/1 finished 15th of 22 (1999).  Several others (Listen, Lillie Langtry, Wading, Found, Together Forever) have missed the race for one reason or another.  Both of Aidan's previous 1000 Guineas winners (Virginia Waters and Homecoming Queen) had a prep run prior to running in the Guineas, and neither had been good enough to win a Group race as a two-year-old.  In addition, Together, who finished runner-up in the 2011 Guineas, had had a prior run (5th in the Tattersalls Millions 3YO Trophy over 10f). 

Now, Minding was probably better than any of those fillies as a juvenile - John Gosden recently described her as the best winner of the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile he's ever seen - but she must still overcome the disadvantage of not having had a prep run before the Guineas.  Secondly, Minding's two best performances last season were on yielding ground, and there's no certainty that she will be able to reproduce that level of form on a faster surface (she'll handle faster ground, no problem, but she seems particularly well suited to some cut in the ground).  Finally, her breeding and style of racing suggest that she will be well suited to distances in excess of a mile this season.  She's undoubtedly good enough to win the Guineas, but at 7/4 she doesn't appear to represent great value. 

Connections will surely be tempted to run stablemate Ballydoyle if the ground is riding on the fast side of good (especially if the ground in France goes against her), as she is undoubtedly best on quick ground.  She was considered superior to Minding for most of last season and can't be written off at this stage (any prices around 14/1 or 16/1 for the Guineas are quite tempting, even allowing for the uncertainty surrounding her participation and the absence of a prep run).  She's a very smart filly in her own right.

There's little to choose between Lumiere and Illuminate on last season's Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes form.  Most people seem to think that Lumiere will finish in front of Illuminate again in the Guineas, as she's the bigger scopier filly of the pair, but the Hannon team appear to retain a lot of faith in Illuminate (who was coming back from an 11-week absence in the Cheveley Park and then failed to handle the soft ground next time in the Breeders' Cup race).  Neither filly is guaranteed to stay a mile: they are both very speedy types who are likely to get 7f but may find themselves running out of gas in the final furlong.  I wouldn't rule out a win for Illuminate, and at around four times Lumiere's odds she must represent a bit of value.

I've always liked Nathra (ever since I noticed that she was John Gosden's sole entry in last season's Prix Marcel Boussac) and she made an encouraging return to action in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last week, showing her well-being with a comfortable victory.  I hope that connections will decide to run her in the Guineas.  She would go there with an excellent each-way chance, and it's never sensible to swerve a classic race because of just one horse.  Turret Rocks was a smart and progressive filly last season (winning the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes and finishing runner-up to Ballydoyle in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac) and has reportedly done very well over the winter.  She will probably want further than a mile this season but is certainly good enough to run very well in the Guineas.

I'm expecting the winner to emerge from this group of six fillies (no surprise there!!) but I'm keeping a close eye on the French-trained fillies.  Midweek made a very encouraging reappearance in the Prix Imprudence and will be much better with that run under her belt, stepping back up to a mile.  The same owner's smart filly Antonoé is likely to make her reappearance in the Gr.3 Prix de la Grotte (the traditional prep race for the French Guineas) at Chantilly next week.  Both fillies are potentially smart enough to make a big impact in the Guineas, but future running plans remain uncertain at this stage.  Trixia and Pleasemetoo were talked about as possible Guineas runners but missed their intended prep race (the Prix Imprudence) and are likely to line up alongside Antonoé on Wednesday.

There is actually quite a bit of persistent rain forecast from 28th April (5.4mm), 9mm the next and right into 1st May 2016.

I backed Lumiere last year at prices between 10 and 12, I still think I'm on the best filly in the race and she'll remain my only bet. Minding's form seems to be generally classed as superior but while her Newmarket win was visually impressive I have the Cheveley Park result better than anything Minding has achieved, with Lumiere 3lbs superior. With only a few exceptions I don't believe most fillies improve much from the end of their 2yo season until Guineas day and for me Lumiere has already achieved enough to win an average Guineas. The extra 2 furlongs are still an unknown and while we won't know for sure until the day stamina doesn't seem to be too much of a concern. If she remains at the top of her 2yo form I think she's the most likely winner.

A O'Brien has just won a race with a first time out 3yo filly, one which had never even run before, so it can happen mind you. cheers.

Aidan O'Brien stable tour (in today's Racing Post), for anyone who missed it...
http://www.aidanobrienfansite.com/stable-tours.php

It sounds like the Newmarket Guineas is still a possibility for Ballydoyle, who is described as "well forward".  Minding is described as "quite forward".  Alice Springs and Even Song are also possible runners in the Guineas.

24 fillies remain after yesterday's forfeit.  Notable withdrawals: Besharah, Coolmore, Dothraki Queen, Even Song, Gherdaiya, Hawksmoor, Light Music, Most Beautiful, Pleasemetoo, Qemah, Tanaza, Trixia.