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1000 GUINEAS (2016)

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Replies: 487
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 27 Sep 15 18:44
Figgis .. you write some good stuff and so incidentally does jamesp year in year out.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Sep 15 18:58
Ta, loto. I did put up a post earlier on here after the Lowther saying I didn't think Lumiere would be good enough so I've done an about-turn since her win yesterday. One of those posts will be right Laugh
By:
cause and effect
When: 27 Sep 15 22:43
Very good thread guys. Just curious as to what you guys think of Coolmore. Sister to Marvellous and Gleneagles. Surely overlooked compared to Ballydoyle.
By:
Paterson92
When: 27 Sep 15 22:51
At this moment in time I see Coolmore as more of an Oaks winner than a Guineas winner. Having said that, I expected her to be shorter for the Guineas after today.
By:
STELLAR MANIPULATOR
When: 27 Sep 15 23:09
Coolmore had a hard race today ( jockey would have been in trouble under GB whip rules ) but she has plenty of scope and todays experience might just make her rather than break her
By:
jamesp
When: 27 Sep 15 23:23
Coolmore is clearly on the upgrade (and still learning), but my initial impression is that this afternoon's Group 3 was quite an ordinary race, with only a length covering the first four home (and a 90-rated filly beaten 2½ lengths in fifth).  She looks a real staying type (only just getting up close home, outstaying the placed fillies) and I doubt if she will have the speed to be a Guineas filly.  Her jockey remarked afterwards that the filly would definitely get a mile and a quarter, while her trainer added that she is like her sister Marvellous as she stays well (the implication being that she is more of a staying type than her brother Gleneagles).  Marvellous won the Irish Guineas on soft ground (in a very slow time) and was then campaigned over 12f (in the Oaks and Irish Oaks), and I imagine that Coolmore will follow a similar path.  I thought the post-race quotes of 16-1 and 14-1 for the Guineas were plenty short enough, and I wouldn't be tempted to back her for the Guineas at this stage at those odds.  I still rate Ballydoyle and Minding as Aidan's main Guineas hopes at this stage (especially the former).
By:
cause and effect
When: 27 Sep 15 23:32
Cheers guys
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 28 Sep 15 08:54
Sectional times can be interpreted a number of way, and comparing times from different days is fraught with danger. Howevere, it is interesting to note that Promising Run ran the last 2 furlongs of the Rockfel in 23.65 secs, which was quicker than Lumaire managed in the furlong-shorter Cheveley (23.91 secs).
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Sep 15 12:19
Not too surprising though considering Lumiere went faster earlier, conditions were also faster on the Friday by my reckoning.
By:
jamesp
When: 28 Sep 15 13:32
I agree with Figgis - conditions were significantly quicker on Friday (there was a strong tailwind), so you can't really compare winning times on Friday and Saturday.  Even so (allowing for the conditions), the Rockfel winning time was very good, and there's no doubt that Promising Run has the makings of a smart filly.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Sep 15 13:44
What you can say for Promising Run is that of her and the Cheveley Park fillies she's the one more likely to get the mile well. I do think Lumiere will stay but Promising Run looks nailed on for the mile. However, then you have to temper that with the trainer. I'm not even talking about his recent record at winning classics with the wealth of talent at his dispoal I mean his record at just even keeping them sound enough to make the gig. Either he's had some seriously unbelievable bad luck or something has been wrong with the methods and I suspect it's the latter.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 28 Sep 15 15:27
surely it has a lot to do with sending them to dubai- must be stressful for young horses to be bounced from one completely different environment to another.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Sep 15 15:35
Could be, lewisham ranger, although they had quite a lot of success in the early years of that experiment, so I don't know. Maybe they've been too hard trained? Impossible to know really unless you have experience of their methods. In recent years it's got to the stage where I expect to read the news that one of his has been withdrawn from a classic for one reason or another and it's a surprise when they make the line-up.
By:
Madhu
When: 28 Sep 15 17:21
Charming Thought Godolphin's then 2000Gns possible stayed on over winter at Newmarket over the winter I believe. Again I would reiterate Godolphin cannot win either of the Guineas unless it is trained by the Master, Mr Bolger.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 28 Sep 15 18:52
.....or the horse is named Cape Verdi, Kazzia, Mark Of Esteem or Island Sand :)
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Sep 15 19:06
Mystic Wind, the thing with those winners is they were all trained by other trainers as 2yos. Ignoring Al Zarooni and his antics, unless I've forgotten some along the way I think the best 3yo that was solely trained by Suroor was probably Poet's Voice and that one didn't make the Guineas. Farhh was their best horse but was also injured after his debut. Some of their fortunes can be put down to breeding matters, nevertheless they've had some pretty promising 2yos throughout the years but a pretty woeful record at even getting them to meet their targets. Victims of circumstance or architects of their own downward spiral?
By:
jamesp
When: 01 Oct 15 19:00
The Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday promises to shed more light on the 1000 Guineas picture.  However, not for the first time, Aidan O'Brien and the Coolmore owners are keeping everyone in the dark regarding running plans.  They left three fillies in the race at this morning's forfeit stage - Ballydoyle, Minding and Coolmore.  I guess they're keeping their options open until the last possible moment, but ground conditions (currently good to soft) and the clement weather forecast (dry and warm) suggest that we're likely to get good ground by Sunday, which should suit all three fillies.  Better ground should be in Ballydoyle's favour, as she wasn't at home on the sticky ground in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last time.  Aidan O'Brien has won the Boussac twice in the last five years (with Found and Misty For Me), and his representative(s) will obviously take plenty of beating.

Pascal Bary has won the Prix Marcel Boussac on five occasions, most recently with Six Perfections in 2002 (unlucky second in the following year's 1000 Guineas), Denebola in 2003 (second favourite for the 1000 Guineas over the winter, missed the race), and Divine Proportions in 2004 (five length winner of the French Guineas) (all three owned by the Niarchos family).  Bary eventually won the Guineas in 2008 with Natagora.  His representative this year, Antonoé (owned by Khalid Abdullah), is highly regarded and has looked a very smart prospect in her two racecourse appearances to date, most recently sauntering away with the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (a traditional preparation for Sunday's race).  The lightly-raced Antonoé doesn't have much to find on ratings (4lbs and 5lbs below Ballydoyle and Minding respectively on RPR's) and is likely to be challenging for favouritism for Sunday's race.  Given Pascal Bary's record of liking to target the 1000 Guineas with his best fillies, I have decided to have a 'saver' on Antonoé at 25-1 for the Guineas (the price has since been cut to 20-1).  The price reflects the possibility that she might be aimed at the French classics rather than Newmarket, but if she wins well on Sunday there will be an expectation that she will be aimed at the Guineas.

Turret Rocks, Jim Bolger's game winner of the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes, is comfortably held by Ballydoyle on earlier Debutante Stakes form, but she's a progressive filly and could run well.  She's basically a middle distance filly for next year, so it's hard to envisage her entering the 1000 Guineas picture, whatever happens on Sunday.  Karl Burke could run Katie's Diamond, dual winner over 6f in the first half of the season and third in the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados last time.  The Calvados form looks better now than it did at the time, with runner-up Marenko having chased home Turret Rocks in the May Hill, and the fourth Sasparella winning the Gr.3 Prix Eclipse next time, and Katie's Diamond seemed to have her excuses last time, but she needs to find a fair amount of improvement and looks a tricky ride.  Jean-Claude Rouget looks set to run Qemah, but she was beaten 6½ lengths when runner-up to Antonoé on debut and has little chance of reversing that form on Sunday (she has since won a minor 5-runner race at Longchamp by 3 lengths).  Aktoria and Ella Diva were both well beaten by Antonoé in the Prix d'Aumale.  Left Hand lifted a maiden race over course and distance on debut, winning by a length in a very slow time.

Now Or Never was taken out of the race at this morning's forfeit stage (presumably on account of the drying ground), along with Aidan's once-raced Best In The World (full sister to Found).
By:
jamesp
When: 01 Oct 15 19:13
Chartreuse (trained by Freddy Head) was an impressive winner of the mile conditions race at Chantilly yesterday, quickening away to score by 5 lengths (in what seemed a fast time for the conditions).  She had been beaten in her first two races but had shown plenty of promise, and she reportedly goes very well at home and is quite highly regarded.  She's likely to head next for the Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville.  Definitely one to keep a close eye on!
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Oct 15 09:55
There are just eight runners for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday.  Minding and Coolmore were both withdrawn at this morning's final declaration stage.  Ryan Moore rides Ballydoyle, with Vincent Cheminaud on Antonoé and Kevin Manning on Turret Rocks.
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Oct 15 10:14
Power's market on the Boussac: 6-4 Ballydoyle, 7-4 Antonoe, 8-1 Turret Rocks, 10-1 bar.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Oct 15 13:48
I don't know if Ballydoyle will win the Boussac or not because it's difficult to gauge the strength of the race but I do believe she's overrated so I wouldn't be at all surprised if she's beaten, therefore I've backed Lumiere for the Guineas instead of waiting on the result.
By:
the bairn
When: 03 Oct 15 00:14
I wasn't going to bet ante-post this year, but, after watching the Moyglare I decided to back Minding and I put a saver on Ballydoyle, I think it is a good thing on sunday. cheers.
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Oct 15 00:23
I'm not so sure that Ballydoyle is a good thing on Sunday.  I'm sure that she's a smart filly, but I get the impression that Antonoé could be very smart as well.  I've already backed Pascal Bary's filly at 25-1 for the Guineas and may go in again at 20-1.  I'm already on Ballydoyle at 10-1 and reckon that she would be able to reverse Moyglare placings with Minding on good or faster ground.
By:
the bairn
When: 04 Oct 15 01:13
some times a horse just impresses you the way it wins in good races, e.g. Special Duty and Miss France in their 2yo races, the way Minding and Ballydoyle ran in the Moyglare struck me as another special race, but I'm no expert, just liked the way they ran, today will be a good test. cheers.
By:
RBoyd86
When: 04 Oct 15 11:09
My recent Chantilly trip also threw up a general view that Antonoe is the best juvenile filly in France by some way and will be hard to beat in the Total Prix Marcel Boussac.
She is trained by Pascal Bary, who has an excellent record in the race and her jockey Vincent Cheminaud is very confident. He told me that he thought she was a very special filly and definitely the best two-year-old in France.

Read this on antonoe, backing today as not high on ballydoyle and a dabble on guineas market. If you havent watched her races so far she looked scintillating, has natural brilliance (still a bit green)
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Oct 15 13:10
Ballydoyle did it well enough, on first impressions it looks unlikely I'll be upgrading her as it appears she just ran to her previous form. Looks more of an Oaks filly to me.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 04 Oct 15 13:12
French runner HATED that fast ground
Not coming to Newmarket

Wink
By:
penzance
When: 04 Oct 15 13:26
got the impression miler according to
Tabor.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Oct 15 13:33
I can see they'll want to go the mile route if they can, just as they did with Found, but personally I think there are others faster.
By:
penzance
When: 04 Oct 15 13:34
3/1 with VC for the 1000G.
they sure!
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Oct 15 13:41
A laughable price. When looking at the form behind it's difficult to say she achieved anything more than she has before. Also even though O'Brien has won it twice with lesser fancied runners in the past he's often struggled to get his higher rated fillies ready for the race for some reason.
By:
Madhu
When: 04 Oct 15 13:57
I wouldn’t think this up to the Cheveley Park Stakes form. The pricing up of Ballydoyle at 3/1 is lunacy, smart filly but no substance to the form. I was really into the filly but not now on today’s performance. I’ll be sticking with Illuminate through the winter.
By:
the bairn
When: 05 Oct 15 15:10
Ballydoyle was very impressive and to think Minding cruised past it, sometimes bare form is better than potential. just going by the leading fancies, it looks like it's going to be a cracking good race next year. cheers.
By:
penzance
When: 05 Oct 15 20:08
Antonoe injured her pelvis in the race,
according to trainer.
By:
ribotman
When: 05 Oct 15 20:24
Injured my wallet too.

Hope she is ok,shame as horse looked very smart in her previous races.
By:
jamesp
When: 07 Oct 15 08:15
It was very unfortunate that the strongly fancied Antonoe sustained an injury and was unable to give her running in the Prix Marcel Boussac.  Apparently the injury is not too serious and is not expected to affect her three-year-old campaign.  I was quite impressed with Balldoyle's win on Sunday: she was in a different class from the others, and the winning time was fast (much faster than the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on the same card).  She is rightly favourite for the Guineas at this stage, ahead of Lumiere.

It will be interesting to see the shape of the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile when final declarations are revealed later this morning.  Minding and Promising Run bring the best form, but John Gosden's filly Nathra was very impressive last time and I have backed her (as a 'saver' in my Guineas portfolio) at 25-1 for the Guineas.  The one I'm concerned about is Coolmore, who appears to be on the upgrade and will be suited by the step up to a mile.  Her odds for the Guineas are too skinny at this stage, and I'm hoping she will miss Friday's big race!
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 07 Oct 15 09:32
If coolmore runs she wins and they won't be able to contain her turn of foot up the hill.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 07 Oct 15 09:32
In the fillies mile that is.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Oct 15 12:49
The Lagardere was noticeably very slowly run so a time comparison between the two is misleading. The time when compared to the whole card results in a decent but no more than average time for the class and it would be optimistic to think those behind would have finished so close in the Cheveley Park. Of course Ballydoyle could be better than the bare result but she was beaten fair and square last time and for me it's the Coolmore/O'Brien factor that is making her such a short price. Obviously such successful connections can have an influence on a horse's chances but it's not a race they've excelled at in the past.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Oct 15 13:12
I thought Ballydoyle looked more of an Oaks filly and she's been priced not much bigger for the Oaks than the Guineas. If they can get her ready for the Guineas, something O'Brien has often struggled to do in the past, I'm sure that's where she's going but whatever she does there I think she'll do better over further. Many Oaks fillies have also picked up the Guineas along the way and there's no saying Ballydoyle can't do the same if it turns out to be a weakish renewal, but at this stage she doesn't strike me as a star miler and after the experimental campaign with Found I'll be surprised if she doesn't end up over middle distances sooner rather than later.
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