Racing Post analysis of the Moyglare result:

This looked a cracking renewal and time may prove that the ground was pivotal in the order of the first three, all Ballydoyle-trained Galileos.

MINDING is a sister to Kissed By Angels, a heavy-terrain winner, and seemed to cope seamlessly with this ground. Although it is true she was held by the second last time, she was strong at the finish, and was able to get a nice tow into the race off that one.

Seamie Heffernan wanted to get a lead off Ballydoyle for as long as possible, and felt that it paid to be held up just off the pace. She travelled exceptionally well and, once she hit the front, she had the race won. She has a lovely fusion of stamina and toe.

It may be foolish to think that it was definitely a case of ground deciding the outcome, but connections' comments afterwards implied they believe Ballydoyle to be better than Minding. Even so, Minding clearly emerges as a Classic contender and ground will not dictate where she goes. Betfair made her 10s for the Guineas, 14s for the Oaks. Presumably the Prix Marcel Boussac could be on the cards.

Ballydoyle looked a potential star in her Debutante win. However, she is out of a Storm Cat mare and, although her sister handled bad ground, she may not be in love with it, her trainer taking afterwards about her action being ill-suited to it. She was gutsy in defeat and anyone who has backed her for the Classics next year should probably not be too downbeat; indeed, the 9s about the Guineas is probably value.

QUOTES "Seamus gave the winner a lovely, patient ride. Her dam was able for that ground, whereas we were not sure how the second horse would handle it. I think Minding handled it better than her. Ballydoyle coped with it but probably did not thrive on it. I'm delighted with the third too - she improved in the hood and is getting better. The Fillies' Mile could be a race for the winner" - Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Minding, Ballydoyle and Alice Springs.

In all probability, Ballydoyle was unable to produce her best, and Alice Springs probably improved for the headgear (despite looking a slightly tricky ride).

tx.
Might have a dabble on both.
Around 33s mark I think.

Coolmore sound very keen to excuse Ballydoyle so it seems like she's the best they've got and we're unlikely to see anything better from them late in the season. I still have the English form of Illuminate and Besharah clear of anything I've seen in Ireland but there are stamina doubts with those two and I can't help thinking there's got to be some better form to come. If not it looks a wide open Guineas next year.

I'm looking forward to seeing Nathra in action at Newbury tomorrow.  She made a big impression at Salisbury on debut, where she took the eye in the paddock and in the race itself.  She's a nice-looking filly with loads of scope and I'll be surprised if she fails to impress again tomorrow.  She could just be very smart, and I'm sure the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac will be under consideration if all goes according to plan.

That was impressive. Had a lay in-running at 2.3 on the Dunlop filly which traded, so made a profit but she never had a chance with the winner.

The three-year-old Hathal (OR 103) won the Listed race in a time of 1m 28.29s (0.75s faster than Nathra in the fillies' conditions race).  On soft ground 0.75s equates to about 3.75 lengths (according to the BHA scale).  It's problematic, as I've admitted before, to apply WFA in these cases, but two-year-olds would get 25lbs from three-year-olds over 7f at this time of year, so for Nathra (9st 1) to run 3.75 lengths slower than Hathal (8st 13) looks quite a smart performance to me.  In fact, if she's allowed to take her chance, I would expect Nathra to play a leading role in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, where she looks the main danger to Antonoé (and whatever Coolmore decide to run).  There's no need to rush to back her for the Guineas at current odds (generally 25/1) until plans become clearer, but she looks a smart prospect.

Both Lumiere and Alice Springs are doubly entered this weekend in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (on Friday) and the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes (on Saturday), which is a problem for anyone thinking of having an early bet on either race.  There are just 10 fillies remaining in the Cheveley Park, and I can't see beyond Illuminate, Besharah, Lumiere, Alice Springs and the supplemented Bear Cheek.  Besharah has gone from strength to strength over 6f and will be hard to beat, but I don't see her as a Guineas filly.  Illuminate has had a long break and will have been prepared specially for this race; she narrowly holds Besharah on earlier July Course form (in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes, when she was reportedly in season) and is one of my main fancies for the Guineas at this stage.  Lumiere is well held by Besharah on Lowther form last time out, but connections appear to be happy to take on her York conqueror again and evidently feel hopeful that they can reverse the form (she missed a couple of bits of work before the Lowther and she was a bit fresh in the race).  Alice Springs has run all four of her races to date over 7f, so it would be a bit of a surprise if she were to take her chance against established sprinters over 6f, but she's not short of speed and would be an interesting contender.  Bear Cheek is stepping up from 5f and should get the trip, but she's sprint-bred and surely won't enter Guineas calculations.  Current betting (best odds): 5-2 Besharah, 3-1 Illuminate, 9-2 Lumiere, 6-1 Alice Springs, 10-1 Bear Cheek, 20-1 bar.

The Rockfel is a much trickier race to weigh up, with 17 fillies remaining after the forfeit stage, including some very promising lightly raced maiden winners.  Alice Springs (111), Blue Bayou (108), Hawksmoor (106), Great Page (105), Ashadihan (104) and Nemoralia (103) have the highest official ratings (Lumiere has yet to be given an official mark), but uncertainty over running plans and the state of the ground make this a very difficult race to call.  Power bet: 3-1 Lumiere, 3-1 How High The Moon, 9-2 Blue Bayou, 7-1 Hawksmoor, 7-1 Nemoralia, 8-1 Alice Springs, 8-1 Doubly Motivated, 9-1 Promising Run, 10-1 Thetis, 12-1 bar.  In other words, they haven't got a clue!  If Alice Springs misses the Cheveley Park Stakes, she could turn out to be Aidan O'Brien's first string in the Rockfel, in which case 8-1 would be way too big.  I'm not sure that the drop back to 7f will suit How High The Moon.

It's an open-looking renewal of the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes tomorrow.  Hawksmoor looks plenty short enough at around 7-4: she looked in need of a step up to a mile when getting up close home in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last time, having taken time to get into top gear, and I'm not convinced that the likely better ground will necessarily be in her favour.  The three last-time-out maiden winners are all very promising and any one of them could easily turn out to be good enough.  The Hills family has a great record in this race over the years and it would be no surpise to see Doubly Motivated prevail.  However, it's not a race about which to take a strong view.  Rather, it's a race to watch (with an eye on next year's Guineas).  I was a bit surprised that Bolger decided to withdraw all three of his entries at the declaration stage, as he likes to target this race.

Always a Beautiful Morning when you awake and catch up with jamesp’s Illuminate ting 1000 Guineas thread; and for many years now has always been a Great Page, especially so when you’re Minding the market and your ante-post bets and thinking it could be Now Or Never to green out. You are a Pure Diamond with your altruistic analysis of our future classic generation of fillies.

The question I would like to ask you James is regarding Ballydoyle- is 14/1-1000/70 for the Oaks not better value than the measly 8/1 for 1000 Guineas?  Being a full sister to my ante-post Oaks filly a few years ago, Misty For Me, I am about to go in large. I actually still to think to this day, Misty should have been a top class 12f  mare, given she was lightly raced throughout her career, and  on her final run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Misty’s performance making all beating star mare Midday out of sight in the Pretty Polly Stakes blew me away). In some ways Ballydoyle is reminding me of Imagine if anything as well, and I keep thinking more in terms of the Irish 1,000 (analogous to Misty For Me) and thereafter, the blue ribbon event at Epsom.  What do think of my learned friend? Kindest regards.

* Great Page

Thanks for taking the time James

Can't understand the underwhelmed response to today's Rockfel. The bare form may not read that well if your benchmark is the 90-rated 4th-placed filly, but I really liked the winner's attitude - especially when the runner-up drew alongside. She has scope and looks sure to get a mile. My clock has it down as a pretty decent performance too.

Hopefully she'll be given a Guineas prep rather than being sent for some winter sun. A different colour, but her attitude reminds me a little of Finsceal Beo.

1pt Promising Run @ 25/1

I agree, it's a bit of a puzzle.  The visual impression didn't look that great - Promising Run is a big, strong galloper, who doesn't appear to do anything in a hurry and has no eye-catching acceleration (she lengthens rather than quickens).  But the winning time was remarkably fast (3.65s faster than the maiden won by Crazy Horse), so I think the form has to be taken seriously.  I was expecting Promising Run to be much shorter than 25-1 and have had a 'saver' at those odds.  There's a possibility that she will run again this season (in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile, which is not a great Guineas trial, where she might come up against Minding), then she will either go to Dubai (and start early next year in the UAE Guineas & Oaks) or stay in Newmarket and be given a conventional Guineas preparation.  Either way, it remains to be seen whether she will have the necessary speed to be a Guineas filly: the clock yesterday suggested that she has plenty of pace, but the visual impression is of a galloping stayer (she's a half-sister to 12f winner Arabian Comet and winning hurdler Aqalim).

Thetis comes from a stamina-laden family which Sir Michael knows well (the dam is half-sister to Leger and King George winner Conduit and Great Voltigeur winner Hard Top) and I suspect that she will be trained with a middle distance campaign in mind.  I think we're more likely to see her in an Oaks trial than the Guineas.

I agree with Mystic Wind about Promising Run, the time was pretty decent, I actually have it 1lb better than the Cheveley Park. I'd also be far more confident of her seeing out the mile than any of the first 3 in the Cheveley Park. It wasn't a performance to set the pulse racing and the pound signs in the eyes but I can see her being placed in the Guineas and maybe even having a chance of winning it if it's as moderate as the 2yo fillies we've seen so far. The negative is Suroor's absolutely bobbins record of even keeping his classic prospects sound in recent years but she's certainly value when compared to other runners in the market that are no better than her and some a lot worse.

Muwakleh won the UAE 100O Guineas back in 2001 and only failed by a neck to defeat Ameerat in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket

Often a bad idea me posting on here straight after rating a card as I sometimes end up altering it shortly afterwards. I've been up and down with the Cheveley Park card but I've got there in the end . The last race on the card was skewing the other races but sorted it. I now have Lumiere as my highest rated 2yo filly and will stick with that view. Think I'll wait for the Boussac though before committing to any bets on her.

I have Lumiere in the area of the kind of figure I've been waiting for. I have her equal to Miss France who won last year and 2lbs higher than Lucida who finished second this year, Legatissimo was one that completely got away. I have her 4lbs lower than Sky Lantern at the same stage but that filly was a bit above the average Guineas winner in my view. So it's not an exceptional level but if she trains on and gets the mile I see her as the one to beat, I don't particularly rate the Irish form so far.

Well just as I was watching the Cheveley Park pre-race my daughter rang me from her University residence and explained that her first project in her Performance undergraduate degree is a project on biolumination and a producing a play in less than two weeks for a forthcoming Light Night festival. Then Lumiere wins just ahead of Illuminate, how is that for synchronicity? Now I’m a spiritual kind of guy you know so this certainly caught my attention. With the former Shamadal filly being out of Screen star my heart just glowed but not knowing if the more than capable Mark Johnston will be in charge of her preparation  quickly tempered my enthusiasm. Well, moving on to the Zoffany filly Illuminate. I will never forget how close her sire got to beating Frankel, with Excelebration  just behind, at Ascot. He is currently a shooting star at the top of the European First Crop Sires. German neoclassical painter Johann Zoffany of Bohemian origin is famous for painting many of the prominent actors and actresses of his day. I would consider bohemianism a family trait.

Connections after the Cheveley Park stakes-

"Illuminate ran a super race and I could not fault her, but she had been on a break and maybe the winner was a bit sharper," observed Dettori. Hannon said:"Illuminate travelled well and she has run right up to her form - she beat Besharah a neck at Newmarket and now the superiority was a neck - but she just got leg-weary on the rising ground. "That will be it for this season, but we still look at Illuminate as a 1000 Guineas filly, and she'll have her prep-race in the Fred Darling at Newbury in April."

So what does this all mean?  I will be backing Illuminate throughout the winter and would expect to get some decent prices. That was a good race, bee in no doubt.

Ok cheers figgis mate.

My view is that having the early speed of a Lumiere is an advantage in these big races- you can potentially take half of the field out of the running if you can also back it up with closing fractions. But not completely convinced she'll be able to burn off the likes of Promising run or Thetis, who showed a lot of dash in that Rockfel and for my money are more likely to appreciate the step up to a mile.

Also the Godolphin filly that won the other day, First victory, she also looked nice.

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