I agree.  Alice Springs is a very good filly too: she travelled well and quickened up smartly.  Take out Tanaza, and the O'Brien filly would have been quite an impressive winner in her own right.  She has plenty of scope for improvement, but the Weld filly looks a class apart at this stage.

Incidentally, Yakaba and Venecia Style were recently entered for the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes later in the season...

It was good to see Besharah perform so well at Ascot this afternoon in the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes.  There was a slight concern beforehand about the ground, but the straight course looks in lovely condition and she was always travelling sweetly, completely outclassing the other runners.  A nice boost for the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes form.

I wouldn't write off Alice Springs yet and the step up to a mile will suit imo. She ran a tad fresh with the winner slipstreaming her but running on well near the line when Tanaza pounced. I think she will turn out to be the better filly in the long term.

Yes, it's a fair point: Tanaza is not the biggest.  Maybe Alice Springs will turn out to be the better long-term prospect.  The Moyglare will be an important test.

Richard Hannon was delighted with Gutaifan's victory in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin on Sunday.  I'm fairly sure that Illuminate is held in higher regard than the Papin winner, so I think this result will encourage Hannon to run his star filly in the Gr.1 Prix Morny next time.  Venecia Style ran quite well to finish fourth in the Papin, but trainer Philippe Sogorb will have been slightly disappointed with this effort: he had hoped that she was a similar type of filly to his Papin and Cheveley Park winner Vorda, but he no longer plans to run her in the Prix Morny.  The other two fillies ran poorly: Fly On The Night failed to reproduce her Prix du Bois form, while Yakaba was reluctant to enter the stalls and on this evidence has not progressed from her maiden win.

There are 26 entries for the Gr.1 Prix Morny on 23 August, including six fillies: Illuminate, Besharah, Most Beautiful, and French-trained Rkaya (J-C.Rouget), Aquamerica (C.Ferland) and Tourny (P.Bary).  The French fillies don't appear to be anything special, although Tourny ran well in the Gr.3 Prix du Bois (runner-up, beaten 1¼ lengths, running on well at the finish) and will appreciate the extra furlong.  David Wachman's filly Most Beautiful looked a very good prospect when landing the Gr.3 Grangecon Stud Stakes at the Curragh, but she has a number of alternative engagements, including the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes, Gr.2 Debutante Stakes and Gr.2 Lowther Stakes.  Besharah outclassed the opposition in the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and would have to be respected if tackling this instead of the Lowther.  The Coventry winner Buratino will be hard to beat, but it looks a tight race and I wouldn't swap Illuminate for anything else at this stage.  Adjusted RPR's for the leading contenders: 113 Buratino, 112 Besharah, 111 Gutaifan, 111 Shalaa, 111 Ajaya, 110 Illuminate, 110 Painted Cliffs, 107 Air Force Blue, 105 Washington DC.

talk of commonwealth cup next year,none of this we'll try an eek out the mile,as we can always drop back in trip after the gns.lol

After Lumiere was taken out of the Princess Margaret Stakes, Mark Johnston said that there was a possibility they could supplement the filly for the Lowther (she hadn't been entered for the race originally).  There aren't too many other options for her over 6f.  If they decide to step her up in trip, the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (next weekend), the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes or the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados would be the obvious races to consider.

Gherdaiya was a quite impressive winner of the conditions race at Deauville today.  There wasn't much pace early, but when the tempo picked up in the straight Gherdaiya showed a smart turn of foot to grab the lead and had only to be pushed out hands and heels to win comfortably by about a length from Alakhana.  André Fabre's filly is clearly quite a smart prospect and should make her presence felt in Group company.  I guess she will go for either the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados or the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (as a prep for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac).  She showed a little bit of knee action but should handle good to firm ground without any problems.  Definitely one to follow.

Gherdaiya is the sole French entry for the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile on 9 October.  I guess she'll run in either the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados later this month or the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale, followed by the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac.  If she takes the Longchamp route, I doubt if we'll be seeing her in the Guineas.  If she comes over to Newmarket for the Fillies' Mile, on the other hand, the Guineas could be on the cards.

There was a very impressive debutante in the 7½f fillies maiden at Deauville this afternoon.  Pascal Bary's filly Antonoe completely outclassed her rivals, showing plenty of speed and a good turn of foot in the straight to win by a comfortable 6½ lengths in a winning time that was nearly two seconds faster than the colts' maiden earlier in the afternoon.  She looks a very exciting prospect, but it's anybody's guess what her future campaign will be.  She's by First Defence, whose best progeny in Europe to date is Dundonnell (multiple winner over 6-7f), out of an unraced Dynaformer mare.  She should certainly get a mile.

The Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket tomorrow is a tricky race to predict.  The highly regarded Blue Bayou, a close third to Illuminate and Besharah in the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes last time, has the best public form but is stepping up in trip and taking on some unexposed maiden winners.  Brian Meehan is sure that his filly will appreciate the extra furlong, but on breeding (she's a daughter of Bahamian Bounty) it's not guaranteed.  Fireglow won the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown in good style and should make her presence felt.  The three last-time-out maiden winners have shown plenty of potential and are respected.

The Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes in Ireland on Sunday features David Wachman's filly Most Beautiful (currently a 10-1 chance with Paddy Power).  She's a lovely prospect, but will she have the firepower at this stage of her career to cope with some smart and speedy colts?

Thanks sj.  The Prix des Marettes is invariably a high class maiden race: average winners of the race usually go on to make their mark in Listed or Group 3 company, but Antonoé was far more impressive than any recent winners of the race and is surely a star filly in the making.  She reportedly goes next for the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale and then, presumably, for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac.  Pascal Bary commented after the race: "This filly was working very nicely in the morning and I really hoped she would run well today. I have to say, she was impressive. She loves fast ground and ought to improve even more, so if all is well we will bring her back for the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale."  She's a tricky one to weigh up as far as the Guineas is concerned, as there is no reason to think that she won't be aimed at the French classics.  But if she wins the Boussac in good style, I'm sure they will consider bringing her over to Newmarket if they think she will be suited by the track.  Wherever she goes, she's one to follow.

The Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket yesterday looked a very ordinary renewal, with only 2½ lengths covering the first six home, and fillies officially rated 89 and 81 finishing close up in fourth and fifth.  The winning time was 1.24s slower than the 0-105 handicap won by Buckstay (OR 97, carried 9-7).  The winner Blue Bayou is clearly a very useful sort and is reportedly on course for either the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes or the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (which looks the more realistic of the two options), but there was nothing in her performance yesterday that suggested to me that she might be good enough to win a Guineas.  She will need to make a fair bit of improvement.  But it was good to see Illuminate's Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes form franked: both the runner-up Besharah and the third Blue Bayou have gone on to record Gr.3 wins, suggesting that Illuminate is top of the pile at present (over 6f).

Mark Johnston seems to have a high opinion of Lumiere

Johnston dreaming of
big future for Lumiere

BY PAUL EACOTT 3:59PM 11 AUG 2015

LUMIERE shot to a prominent position in the ante-post betting for next season's Qipco 1,000 Guineas after lighting up Newmarket's July course on her debut last month and supporters of the daughter of Shamardal will be buoyed by positive vibes emanating from her connections.

Trainer Mark Johnston has revealed that he is "dreaming she could be brilliant" after the Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohhamed Al Maktoum-owned Lumiere blitzed to a six-length win under William Buick.

Johnston said: "We were hopeful she'd be that good and William Buick was very enthusiastic about that performance."

Asked about the reason for her lofty reputation, Johnston, quoted in his Kingsley Klarion magazine, said: "The hype partly comes from a piece of work she did under Russ Kennemore. Russ came back in saying she was the fastest thing he had ever sat on."

Special filly

Taking up the story, Kennemore added: "I knew she was good because Adrian Nicholls rode her in a piece of work on the all-weather and said she was a special filly.

"But when I rode her out of the stalls and up the grass gallop her time was amazing, and that was on the bridle and without asking any questions.

"I reported to Mark after the gallop with a big smile on my face, and told him it was the fastest I'd ever been up the gallop and that I'd been scared because I couldn't pull her up at the end!"

Lumiere can be backed at 16-1 to give Johnston a second win in the race he landed with Attraction in 2004.

All the hype about Lumiere has led to bookmakers slashing her price (surprise, surprise) for the Guineas.  She's now a general 10-1 chance (9-1 with Hills).  I'm already on at 20-1, but she's shockingly poor value now at current odds.  Bookmakers have already factored in an impressive win in the Lowther next week, but she's by no means a certainty for that race.  Besharah, Ashadihan and Most Beautiful have already proven themselves smart fillies and set quite a high standard.  But perhaps all the hype emanating from the Johnston camp will frighten off the opposition...

The reports that Lumiere is "the fastest thing he [Russ Kennemore] has ever sat on" suggest to me that she might just turn out to be a 6-7f filly rather than a Guineas type.  At first glance the pedigree suggests that she should get a mile, but her sire Shamardal occasionally produces horses that don't stay as well as they're expected to.  For example Shakespearean, who started off his career with Mark Johnston, was arguably best at 7f (though he did scramble home to win over a mile on one occasion) despite being out of a dam who stayed 12f.  There's a suspicion also that Lucida (by Shamardal out of a Street Cry half-sister to a 12f Breeders Cup Turf winner) barely gets a mile.  Perhaps Lumiere will turn out to be more like the speedy 5-6f winner Arctic (by Shamardal out of a Shareef Dancer half-sister to 12f winner Songlark)!

Yakaba, reportedly Freddie Head's fastest two-year-old this year, bounced back to form to win the Listed 5f race at Deauville today.  She won quite easily (by 3 lengths), beating the useful colt Log Out Island (runner-up in the Gr.2 Norfolk Stakes and third in the Gr.2 Railway Stakes before disappointing last time behind Shalaa in the Gr.2 Richmond Stakes).  Yakaba remains a filly of some potential, despite her previous reverse in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin, where she was reluctant to enter the stalls and ran a lifeless race.  It will be interesting to see whether she takes up her entry in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes next month.  On breeding (by Medicean out of a winning miler) she should get a mile next year, but she's very pacey.  She goes well on soft ground (like her dam) but has also won on good ground.

Stan James taken a very odd position
8-1 fav Lumiere

Generally 16-1

The Gr.2 Debutante Stakes looked a high-class and competitive renewal beforehand, so it was no surprise to see the impressive winner Ballydoyle installed as the new favourite for next year's Guineas.  She has clearly improved considerably since her narrow defeat in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she took an age to reach top gear (perhaps, in retrospect, she was still showing signs of greenness on that occasion), and following her bloodless maiden victory at Newmarket she looked a completely different filly this time, showing plenty of natural speed and smart acceleration to dismiss some very useful opponents in a very respectable winning time.  This full sister to Misty For Me (multiple Gr.1 winner over 8-10f) should have no trouble getting a mile and should be capable of winning at the top level.  The post-race quotes of 10-1 for the Guineas seemed fair enough (in the context of the cramped antepost odds we've come to expect from bookmakers over the last few years), so I've added her to my portfolio of bets for next year's race (alongside Illuminate and Lumiere, with a smaller wager on Tanaza), despite the obvious worries about the trainer's ability to get a fancied filly ready for the race.  (I wonder whether others, like me, were repeatedly knocked back by bookmakers and had trouble getting their bets on in full, though I did eventually manage to get my entire bet on at 10-1 by spreading it among several different firms, before they all cut the price to 8-1!!.)  I guess the next stop will be the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, and it will take a very smart filly to beat her there.

There didn't appear to be any obvious hard luck stories for the beaten runners, but Alice Springs (now out to 25-1 for the Guineas) ran a bit freely and was unable to confirm earlier Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes form with Turret Rocks.  Runner-up Minding showed a lot of promise without being able to match the winner's speed.  Most Beautiful failed to improve for the step up to 7f and (despite her pedigree) looks a speedy type who may benefit from a drop back to 6f.

The Gr.3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville cut up quite badly and the form looks quite ordinary, with the Hannon-trained duo Great Page and Marenko fighting out a tight finish.  No Guineas clues either in the Gr.1 Prix Morny, where Pascal Bary's filly Tourny was outclassed (and possibly unsuited by the soft ground), finishing well beaten behind Shalaa.

The well regarded Coolmore made an encouraging debut in the mile fillies' maiden at the Curragh and should come on considerably for the experience.

Latest Guineas betting (best available odds from six leading bookmakers): 8-1 Ballydoyle, 16-1 Illuminate, Lumiere, Tanaza, Besharah, 25-1 bar

I have Ballydoyle's latest run as a 7lbs improvement on her previous form but it still leaves her well short of typical Guineas winning class, in my view. She may be capable of better than the winning form though and hopefully her next race will reveal more. I still have Illuminate ahead of the pack, I'd expected something to come along and overtake her Ascot form by now but there's still plenty of time for that.

The way the Albany was run I don't have any margin left to say Illuminate could be any better than the bare figure, although that doesn't rule out any natural physical improvement she might make. The Debutante was different and even though I don't think much of the beaten runners it's possible that Ballydoyle is already better than the bare result, although I think she'll need to be as I have the form a good 10lbs+ short of average Guineas class. More in her favour though is she looks sure to get a mile, whereas stamina is more unknown for Illuminate.

I can't agree that the winning time was excellent but it was ok, the Gp3 form was pretty low for the grade, more like Listed class and the rest of the card wasn't up to much. I agree with the Raceform comments that JOB "stacked up the field" before quickening, tactics which usually don't produce an outstanding time, but as I said she might show more in a more competitively run race. The filly Coolmore is interesting as she was strongly fancied in the market on debut and ran very promisingly. I just wonder if they see her as more of a middle distance filly though having started her out at a mile.

Figgis, re: Coolmore.  I was surprised that they started her off over a mile, as she's a full sister to Gleneagles and the Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous (who started favourite for the Oaks but didn't stay).  The dam You'resothrilling was a speedy two-year-old and stayed a mile at three.  A tricky one to weigh up in terms of stamina - I guess she'll be a 8-10f filly next year, but the way she ran at the Curragh suggests she could be more of stayer than her siblings.