Well it looks like the only withdrawal is Ashadihan so Ballydoyle has been declared - I thought with the overnight rain and the market weakness on here over the last 2 days they might withdraw her.

Ballydoyle has been declared but this was before the news about 8mm of rain.

Officially good to soft at the moment but just a light shower and 1-2mm at most expected, with a drying day on Sat she'll be glad she's running Sunday!

Air Force Blue might had to deal with his slowest ground yet in the 2000 tomorrow but we will see.

this thread is usually the best one on the forum, always informative from start to finish, but i've never read as much pish in all my life as in the last 14 days or so, a case has been made for nearly every single horse with the exception of Minding, I believe if Vincent O'Brien trained it and Lester Piggot was on board, with what it achieved last year it would be a 1 to 5 shot. cheers.

Minding ran two incredible races last year - both on softer ground that suited her (that she likely won't get again),

Prior to that she was very well held by Ballydoyle in the Debutante Stakes,

Who's to say which has wintered the better? .. Which has the fitness edge - Ballydoyle was arguably quicker out of the blocks than Minding who just built uo to a great victory,

The vibes are very much that Minding will be coming back for Epsom, not so much Ballydoyle,



And then there's Alice Springs who was never far away,

Lumiere might stay, in which case she has a good chance (though I don't see it),


I think Ballydoyle is the one on the drying ground, at the odds. If it was G/S then it would be the other.

Just looking @ the market despite the drying ground Minding has shortened in to 2.28!
Surely some value to be had against with Ballydoyle/Lumiere/Illuminate/Alice SPrings/Mix and Mingle suited by drying conditions.

at least the fillies don't have first-time tack on,

in the 2000, idk wtf, given tack have to imagine soft palate, horse looked wonky after 2 strides and never travelled

When Moore writes his article to Betfair, would he have handed in Saturdays and Sundays runners at the same time ?

Really looking forward to the race, Lumiere got every chance of staying if able to settle a little better early(but does show obvious speed), I am quite taken with the e/w chance of ALJAZZI, winner on soft over shorter, took time to get going on the A/W latest, trip looks fine, dam a listed winner over 10f soft, looks the sort to find more under pressure, massive price ,just too big to miss.

I don't have a strong view about this year's 1000 Guineas.  There are negatives about most of the leading contenders, and it would be no great surprise to see a 10/1+ winner.

We can't be sure that the two principal Aidan O'Brien-trained fillies will be 100% ready to give their best: Aidan has had a conspicuous lack of success with his proven Group race winners in the 1000 Guineas first time out, and he has struggled in recent years to get them cherry-ripe for this race without a prep run.  Minding was an impressive winner of the Fillies' Mile last season, but that was on yielding ground and represented quite a severe stamina test for a juvenile filly: she was staying on strongly in the final furlong and may be better suited by longer trips this year.  The Fillies' Mile does not have a great record as a Guineas trial in recent years.  Even if Minding is fully wound up for today's race she might be vulnerable to a sharper type of filly.  Ballydoyle is a speedier type than Minding and should be well suited by the likely good ground.  The lack of a prep run is a worry, but she was reported as being 'well forward' a week or two ago and is certainly good enough (based on last season's form) to win a Guineas if she has trained on.

There are stamina doubts about both Lumiere and Illuminate (first and second in last season's Cheveley Park Stakes) and neither has had the advantage of a prep run.  Lumiere appears to have done well from two to three and has reportedly learned to relax better at home: if she is able to transfer this more relaxed attitude to the racecourse and doesn't get buzzed up by the occasion, this will certainly give her a better chance of getting the mile.  Illuminate needs to improve for the step up in trip, which is by no means guaranteed, and she was a smaller type of filly than Lumiere last season; nevertheless, she looks massively overpriced at 33/1 (at time of writing).

Turret Rocks lacks a prep run this season and is likely to find this mile a bit on the sharp side for her, but she should be staying on at the finish and wasn't far off the best last season.  Alice Springs doesn't have much to find on last season's form and has had the benefit of a prep run (on unsuitably heavy ground), but she needs to make further improvement.  Jet Setting won her trial on heavy ground and is hard to weigh up (on this much faster surface).

Nathra ticks most of the boxes and won her prep race in good style.  She's likely to have come on for her reappearance run and should be spot-on for this race.  She looks a speedier type than Minding and must have a big say if the favourite runs below expectations, but one can't get away from the fact that she was comprehensively beaten (despite running very well) by Minding in the Fillies' Mile.  I'd expect Nathra to confirm Nell Gwyn form with Robanne, Mix And Mingle and Epsom Icon.

Midweek is lightly raced and has reportedly come on nicely for her reappearance run in the Prix Imprudence and will appreciate the extra furlong.  She needs to make significant further improvement, but she's a lovely filly and makes the most appeal among the outsiders.

It's hard to envisage Blue Bayou, Fireglow, Aljazzi or Sharja Queen making the leap to 1000 Guineas winner.

I've backed a number of these fillies over the last 10 months (including Minding 14/1, Lumiere 20/1, Nathra 25/1 among others) and am happy with my position on the race, but if I were entering the market at this late stage (at current odds) I'd be inclined to side with the race-fit Nathra and Midweek against the field, with perhaps a smaller saver on Illuminate.

After all the time and effort put in by jamesp I hope you have an all green book.

Personally with my mistrust of fillies from two to three foremost in my mind I am going to back in the right proportions Minding win,Ballydoyle and Turret Rocks both e-w and hope to emerge financially unscathed.

Midweek for me

I'm taking 2 against the field in Alice Springs who for me has been tenderly handled in some of the top class races from last year. 1m on good ground should be right up her street. The other is Blue Bayou. 75/1 on here is an insult of a price given the level of form she showed last year.

think lumiere will sit handy early and try to kick around the bushes. then the question will be answered about her staying. I can see the arguments for her but there is just some doubt niggling away at the back of my mind- they all finished in a heap in the cheveley park so you wonder if she really did have that much left in the tank. At one point it looked like she would kick away and win by four or five lengths but it didn't happen and she has an extra two furlongs to travel today.

most impressive piece of form for me was the gallop that ballydoyle put in last week on the morning line. know it was only a gallop and no idea what she beat but did look very impressive. when the rider asked her she just went whoosh, I think before then Aiden was unsure whether he'd run her here but that more than made his mind up.

her raking stride should be perfect for newmarket, whether she'll have enough in the tank to fend off the no doubt power packed finish of minding and  ryan moore I have no idea, but at the prices she looks to be the value to beat her stablemate.

In fairness to mj he said she might not win that day as she had gone in her coat, but she would win the 1000 guineas and he has no reservations about the extra 2 furlongs...good value imo.

tricky affair this, a very deep fillies classic and well up to scratch

minding must be some filly for moore to ride her over the other 2 fillies who have every chance on the book

well i have to say if this were to be run with cut in ground minding would look a good thing but it isn't so it tempers enthusiasm in regards taking the short odds

lumiere was my idea of the winner and conditions have come right for her so there are no excuses but i like lewisham ranger just have my doubts over the value of the form in the cheveley and with so many stronger stayers in the line up and a lot of speed present here i just don't think it is going to be easy for her, so she is regrettably passed over

i don't think you can be really confident of a solid bet here with so much pace likely but i like ballydoyle at the prices and there did appear to be a speed bias at the track yesterday so i can see her being up there the whole way from what i believe to be ok draw for her

pace seems very likely with fireglow, ballydoyle lumiere, jet setting and midweek all likely to be wanting to be on the speed, so depending on how it goes in theory it should suit a strong stayer/closer so there should be no excuses depending on the bias at the track on the day, in theory minding should get the perfect speed to chase and close the pace down if good enough so she would not be a lay for me and you may just get a price in running with the track players likely to be with the speed in front that she will be chasing, i could see the race collapsing so a strong stayer with speed will win the day(the obvious i know!!!)

ground looks pretty decent...

laid ballydoyle e/w. no chance at these odds

backed illumate and fireglow e/w

gl all

boom

should go for the Derby...nothing to fear there.