Here is another one, the turf is firmer over in HK land, that's why so many sprinters make the transformation.I am off too bed , not feeling great,wanna be top for Ascot.

Night Of Thunder for me.

I'm going to wait till tomorrow as well HK, I'm pretty sure some bookies will be offering some slightly bigger prices in the morning... he's from Hong Kong and it's the first race of a 5 day meeting!! I can see Solow and NOT getting shorter, both horses have connections punters like to follow at these big events.

Everything has seemed to have gone very well for Able Friend and totally agree, there will be no excuses. I'm not changing my mind now and have always thought he's the real deal, we will find out tomorrow.

Rupert Bell is going to be on TalkSport in a bit, he will hopefully give some thoughts on AF and what the vibe is like from his brother's yard.

It's best not to read that kind of stuff HK... oh dear! As long as Rishi Persad doesn't tip him tomorrow we should be alright.

Backed Able Friend based on his mile times. If all the hype is correct could see him displace Solow as favourite.

Latest Turftrax readings 8.0 - 8.2 on straight course and 7.8 on round course so yesterday's watering (10mm on Str) has had some effect but the forecast is dry from now on, no more watering planned. The course will probably go back to readings prior to watering by tomorrow so I think there should be no problems on that score. Good fast ground is my f/c.

Now that Arod is out, there is a distinct lack of pace in the race with only Glory Awaits looking the possible pace lead. He's not good enough to lead all the way so one or other of the Hannon pair may take it up mid-way. 8 times out of 10 this race is not a strongly run affair (Frankel the big exception) so I think that this will play into the hands of AF who clearly has the best turn of foot in the race. Head is very confident too about Solow who also possesses a great turn of foot if not quite up to AF's level so I'm extremely confident that the race will go to one of the pair, both being in incredibly good form.

Could there be money coming from HK given AF's reputation? Could that be a factor in who goes off fav. I think 3.5 is a great price for AF but I'll save most of stake on Solow.

Hello Sandown, Ascot a unique track, just picturing Frankel, and Harbinger, they had their races won a long way out, I just wonder if that will be where the race is won? Fascinating.

Toormore looked to have done particularly well at Newbury and will be fitter again. He has the speed to be anywhere in the race.

The front two in the market would need too be asked for something they have not yet done?, more pace too the 6f pole then attack(course requirement?) How much energy would they have used if so?, Able Friend as been settling a long way off the pace, and Solow is in  new territory?,I have never seen Night Of Thunder ridden like the best horse in the race? He perhaps may have sufficient speed too stay closer too the pace, Fascinating. Some tough tactical decisions, especially for Solow.

MJ

Hard to generalise about best tactics to adopt but Ascot rises thoughout the straight mile and levels out for the last furlong. Although it is not so stiff as it was before the stand was built, to my mind the course is still tough enough and horses have to get the trip properly although as I've said the chances of a really fast run race won't be high. Stiff tracks nearly always suit strong types although the ground won't be so soft that factor becomes critical. AF is a big strong horse however, and no-one has yet said that in fact the track might suit him. Although at 5 (like Solow) I do not expect to see any significant improvement in form, I am not as concerned as some about the straight mile. I would be more concerned about overly pronounced waiting tactics especially if it is not a strong pace so providing AF is not kept too far out of his ground I expect his turn of foot to be decisive.

Solow is no slouch and without AF in the field I would rate his chance highly but to my mind his chance would have been greater with soft in the description and a strongly run race at a mile.Freddie head has a good line to NOT through Charm Spirit who has beaten NOT twice. Toormore nearly always races keenly and he my not be suited by slow early fractions. As both Hannon horses stay the mile well, we might see see them both race more prominently than the visitors and could be the ones to take it up once Glory Awaits fades.

Frankel was a freak and Harbinger was exceptional on the day over 12f and I don't think that either set the pattern for most Ascot winners.

I think that the ratings suggest that Hannon's pair should be close but on the clock I don't see it that way especially the way the race will probably be run. But tactics might change and AF may not be as good as he looks in HK. I've been keeping sectional times for 20 years and very few horses can achieve the final fractions that AF seems to get easily.

Word of warning though. I felt the same way about Deep Impact when he ran in the Arc. And look how that turned out.

"play" not "lay"

I am not convinced yet, that Able Friend will have the same amount of energy to produce that burst of speed, in the champions mile, the opening two splits are tame enough, and he is 3-4 off the pace

    26.30    24.14 the final burst is awesome but plenty of energy conserved for it.

MJ

The Hong Kong mile Dec 14 2014 is the race to look at. It was a strongly run race with near even times throughout  each quarter. It was the fastest final time performance of any of AF's recent runs and he still proved capable of putting in a final quarter of 21.71. It compared very favorably with the rest of the card which had some big races over 6,8, 10,12f.His last run was clearly in a slowly run race. Judge him on the Dec 14 race. As I said, he might even be suited by a stiff mile providing the ground is Ok which it should be.

When I'm judging Solow I'm not taking the Prix Daniel Wildenstein Gp2 form from last year literally. I read that it was supposed to have been a well run affair but for me it was run at a moderate early pace and Solow's superiority was compromised. If that form really is the true extent of his abilities then he'd have only a very slim chance tomorrow and would even struggle against NOT and Toormore.

Sandown, your experience is valid and helpful the mph at end of race mega, , but he played no part at all in those sectionals in the Hong Kong mile, I think the race fell apart for him, your view on Solow is very valid concerning distance , the fact remains that his mile form is no where near that 9f effort when beating TGG.(but that does sway me his way), i always feel you need a horse that gets that bit further in the top races, in this instance the lack of obvious pace is a major concern for Solow unless they use the Filly?(I don't fancy her chances at all), so perhaps that will be her job?

My main fear and a big one is that there may be no pace and you could see a few of these pulling and ruining chances, the pace is not at all obvious, the lesser lights will be ridden for best possible placing, it could all hinge on Toormore and the filly, not sure at all how their owners and trainers view this?

Incredible PP offer. AF 4.0 BOG plus . If only I could bet with BM'sStill, it has had the effect of pushing AF out to 4.0 on BF.

http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2015-06/news_2015061501846.html&b_cid=EWHPJSE__

Considering the immense firepower he has, I find it extraordinary that the best Aidan O'Brien can throw at this race is a 40/1 rag Cougar Mountain.

I agree with you Sandown - if the Sha Tin AF turns up I have full faith that it will take a very good one to beat him, if this was run at ST tomorrow he'd be very short indeed.