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Queen Anne Stakes 2015
Queen Anne Stakes 2015
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figgis the HK site reads - "The standard time is derived from race times over the past three racing seasons, and is calculated based on the average winning time adjusted to 123 lb on good or faster going over the distance concerned".
insufficient data, but a method non the less. |
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Hi MJ and Figgis - be interested how much data is required, as you know Sha Tin and HV are the only tracks so they have a meeting once a week for 10 months a year with probably on average 3 1200m and 1650 races a meeting so that's a fair amount of data over 3 years to arrive at a good average. Just interested for my own education as I don't tend to look at speed figures.
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You could also add the 80% of the time the going is g/f
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Yes I know, it is the 'average' bit that I'm referring to, it's a method but a crude one, a bit like calculating the average wage of a nation.
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Hi HKAccie, no speed figure guru myself, but I would think if you can compare the last 5-6 years and use your judgment on official ratings you may have for those winners in that given class, then probably enough data, course changes , rail movement is a burden on the time handicapper, history does not show those changes,a blind average probably not sufficient, maybe discard the slowest and best(maybe not)?, but average would do, their is no guidance on such matters.
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Hi HKAccie, I'm not knocking that they've put that information out there, it's a useful quick guide for rough comparisons, which is more than you'll get from the BHA. Averages are also a good starting point for anyone wanting to take things further.
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Agree Figgis average or even median aren't a good method as there are lots of external factors to consider as MJ points out, I suppose in HK that's the only way to do it as there are sort of fixed "variables"
If that's not an oxymoron, that you can take into consideration - going is fairly standard, track is fairly standard etc....suppose it's difficult to translate it to other countries and tracks though. It is quite surprising though how many races in HK are run to standard (including the sectionals) or as near as to be negligible in difference |
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Many variables, Raw times unadjusted make no sense?, but can be used, I think the methods we may use for yardstick handicapping apply just the same(or can with thought) if you have an officially rated 125 horse with a 3yrld early classic, then could we say take 25 lbs off the time value for an adjusted too 100 figure(average rating)?, I myself have no time for this sort of thing, but with some thought and also employing placed horses(say first three home over 5-6 years) the data becomes larger too asses. A great subject too lose yourself in. I do prefer the sectional data which tells us what happened in a race and mph etc. Unfortunately not covered in the UK due too ignorance, so I watch and bet a lot more on US racing these days.
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HK is great for sectionals and replays from angles too - but it is easier with just 2 courses and 2 meetings a week!
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Yes HKaccie agreeeasier indeed,Just going back too speed ratings for a minute, I would look at the top races, in particular those rated between 100 - 125 who raced in group company at least your model will be built upon class, and perhaps somewhere down the line you may recognize those performances about too burst onto the Group scene(yes build your model on class)
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It is best to note trends in other peoples speed figures, then perhaps apply them too your own ,loads of information out there, it would be foolish to start from scratch without no knowledge gained from history(a less daunting a task). 2yrld races hard, race standardization the best method , but a lot of guesswork, best make your older generation records first(experience) in my view, to get the feel.Then climb the mountain that is the (starting point) in all handicapping method.
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Average is a dirty word used by politicians and the city,and the lazy who cannot take the time too find the bigger picture, an high with a low is a manipulative lie.
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Looking at the standard sectionals in HK it's clear that the slow early pace in most races creates a lot of fast final fractions and the fast closing fractions for AF need to be tempered by that. Nevertheless, he consistently returns the fastest fractions irrespective of distance and the actual fractions of 21 secs and change are never seen over here, partly because races are more strongly run from the off and partly because the conditions which make for fast fractions are infreqently favourable. Many courses are not flat and have stiff finishes. It rains a lot and the going is more often or not good at best especially as clerks water more these days to achieve good ground. The wind might be stronger more often.The grass may be left to grow a little longer.
Its a fact that fast final fractions are seen frequently at Longchamp (races run slow early, fast late) and Meydan (good to firm & flat.) So Solow's times need tempering as well. Nevertheless, any horse that can run fast enough to break 22 secs at the end of a mile race is an unusual animal. The ground conditions will be key on Tuesday. |
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wasnt watered ground offered as an excuse for AK a few years ago
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Able Friend is some animal but cant forget how Variety Club beat him over there, the horses he is beating on the bridle over there are far from European Group 1 standard and I just wonder if he might get found out. Solow is pretty solid but he has not beaten much either.
Night Of Thunder just about looks the bet at 6/1, hes hardly a vintage miler and was well outclassed by Kingman but he seems to relish a stiff straight mile. Its an interesting race but not exactly deep with proper Group 1 milers. |
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Any ideas on the rainfall yet?
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Light rain there at the moment
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I have never looked forward to a race so much, for those who don't observe ratings,well they would probably not get the buzz that this race is creating. Not even Frankel could create this , those behind him were never thought good enough hence his short prices, this race is pure competitive, Abel Friend is the form selection , Solow is so much improved, and Night Of Thunder the pretender that could upset. Pre race tension for us racing lovers!
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The clock and ratings dictate Abel Friend, my eyes prefer Solow I am with the later but who cares what a joy.
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Have to agree MJ, hope they all run their race - obv AF on the eye for me after the way he won the HK mile in Dec, never heard 80 odd thousand people audibly gasp when they watched the race replay before (think its the replay that focusses on the race leader all race) - quite amazing to hear it.
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Some may feel Able Friend is capable of better due to the manner of his wins or some of his fractions, which is fair enough, but as for actual level of achievement I find it hard to put his performances above anything Solow has done. I don't entirely trust time ratings for Meydan as for me there needs to be a bigger history of results to work from than we've had so far. However, the time performance Solow clocked last year in the Gp3 at Deauville was a Gp1 performance in a Gp3 race and that's mainly what I'm using to judge him on. It wasn't superstar quality but good enough for a typical Queen Anne. It looks to me that the Grey Gatsby hasn't improved in line with wfa but if we take the Meydan race at face value that he ran near to his 3yo form then Solow comes out with a very similar figure to the one he put up when winning at Deauville.
Add to that he's trained by somebody with a good past record of getting his horses ready to produce on the big day in England, whereas it's still a bit of an unknown territory for the HK horses and handlers then he has to be the one to beat. In my view, it's about the actual achievements of Solow against the style and potential of Able Friend and at the prices I have to go with achievement. |
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Moore seems very bullish
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2015-06/news_2015061302003.html&b_cid=EWHPJSE__ |
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According to Turftrax there was only 1mm rain last night. Current descrption is good with g/firm in places. Watering on round course tonight, straight course Sunday.Dry f/c for week. Going sticvk ranges 8.6 to 8.9 which is same as this time last year. Ground rode fast on Tuesday last year.. Can't see that ground will be against AF so no excuses on that issue.
Get the feeling that Solow will firm up more and will go off fav. Quite a few journos seem to be against AF. Market not strong for others. AF will prob be around 3.5 on day and Solow maybe 2.75. All subject to change of course. |
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if able friend wins i hope they introduce the owner on telly.
whats the odds on who ever not being able to keep a straight face ?  |
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When John Moore's confident, I'm confident HK. Hopefully there will be some tasty prices Tuesday morning.
 If the ground is like last year, that's fine with me and agree, no excuses! |
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I'm already building a decent bet on him Mr D.....every winning bet is going directly on to him...I'm keeping the faith even though this will be his hardest race over a mile by far, he can definitely get further than the mile, just look at the 2 races v DOR last season to see he can battle, it's just now down to whether he's good enough away from home, didn't realise the magic man has raced at Ascot before in the Shergar cup so that's one concern gone too.
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good thread - quick question at which part of able friend career was he gelded??
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Able Friend drawn 7 of 8. Arod not declared so it wouldn't surprise me if Solow tried to make all like he did at Deauville last August, Glory Awaits is the only other runner who might make the pace.
Harry, Able Friend has been a gelding since his first race in Australia (Track: Rosehill 06/11/12 3yr old) ABLE FRIEND 7 COUGAR MOUNTAIN 2 GLORY AWAITS 3 HERE COMES WHEN 8 NIGHT OF THUNDER 5 SOLOW 4 TOORMORE 6 ESOTERIQUE 1 |
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ok thx
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Figgis , I think the problem I have with Solow(and I have bet it) is that the mile form is very much inferior to the 9f+ form, drastically so.The beating of The Great Gatsby was amazing, but over the wrong distance for TGG too show anywhere near best?, The mile form in isolation would not be good enough.Could be outpaced at critical stage? That said Solow keeps improving too the eye, and looks genuine.
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MJ, as I said I'm not judging him on the Meydan form, I'm mainly rating him on the Deauville Gp3. Able Friend won a Gp1 in comparison when winning the HK Mile, but in my view the value of the form looks no better.
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Not sure how the pace will pan out in the event?. NOT may try for an easy lead,try and dictate at slow fractions, Able Friend generally sits 4-7 off the pace thus exploiting extraordinary turn of foot, but he wants the leaders too bolt in front, he has not been quite so electric off a slower pace,but still did the job.
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Figgis , I have a 134 rating for Able Friend ,he stays.but 3 group1(1m) 1 group2(1m) and 2 listed(1m), he is the specialist, NOT may have been rushed last year winning the Guineas on fourth start, the rest of season best forgot, perhaps they have much more up their sleeve, but not one that takes the eye with style, perhaps because he was rushed?, Hannons do improve 12 lb for a run in recent years, I fear it, but my eyes tell me he is not the class.(man scratches head? Doh)
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Solow's 8f form is nothing special, he should be beating the likes of Fire Ship and Sommerabend getting weight off them. These are old, exposed G2/G3 horses, the Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Longchamp) was a poor race last year... Veda did nothing for the form at Santa Anita.
Sommerabend was only 2 lengths behind NOT at Longchamp (Prix du Moulin) last year as well, there is not much between Solow and NOT if you use him as a guide... a pretty average guide. To be fair to Sommerabend he did have one of his better seasons last year at the ripe old age of 7, still a young gun compared to CDA.  I would love to see how some of these lot would get on in G1 races at Sha Tin! |
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Oh I dunno, I don't think Gold Fun and the Britannia Handicap winner Beauty Flame (Roca Tumu) would give them too many worries
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Hong Kong trainers must be a lot better than ours if they can make handicap horses G1 winners.
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The trouble is with the Hong Kong brigade,is they generally under perform on European turf , mainly in the Arc, suspect the mile form could prove more too their liking, but Ascot can seem a vast place for a horse wearing Cheek-pieces(bit of a generalization), they wear them for a reason, and many in Honk Kong do wear them, and until they do it over here ,then I will take them on.
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When have Hong Kong runners ran in the Arc MJ?
The Hong Kong brigade have targeted the Sprint races on a few occasions in the UK and that's about it... and done pretty well. Head gear has never really bothered me but we all have our own way of betting. |
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I will attempt my first question again MJ, it didn't read properly.
Which Hong Kong horses have ran in the Arc? I cannot think of any. Cape of Good Hope won the Golden Jubilee and Little Bridge won the King's Stand Stakes. |
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really tricky race this from a betting point of view and i can't say either able friend or solow make much appeal to me at the prices we are getting
just a point on animal kingdom whom has been knocked in this thread, he got very coltish in the paddock before the race that day, so in my opinion, his race was run before they even got to the start and his mind was clearly elsewhere, nothing to do with his form or travelling i am struggling to see why solow is 6-4 here, it is just to short on a average group 1 winner, i myself really like the colt and was very bullish on him for meydan but i was bullish on him because of the horses he was meeting that day, which were just mediocre group horses (bar the grey gatsby who is probably still feeling the effects of a gut wrenching race in the irish champion stakes) he backed that up in another weak affair in france, as much as i really like him as an individual i just don't get the angle here at 6-4, he should be much closer to the 5-2 mark imo...i'm certainly not saying he can't win, just that i don't have him as far clear as he should be to warrant being the price he is, i'm sure he will be finishing and is very uncomplicated, if he were mine he would of ran in the prince of wales, also another thing i'm just not sure of, is how he will act on proper summer ground, that is not a given yet the same comments apply to able friend form, who himself has been beating up average horses at sha tin, i'm not sure i get his rating in the racing post, which like a lot of horses from there has been inflated...i certainly would of liked to of seen him travel to get a decent line of form on him, he is clearly a classy individual but he hasn't really been off the bridle so how much he will find i'm just not sure and i certainly have no wish to find out at the 9-4 being offered...my other major concern for able friend is he has already had 7 runs this season at sha tin so is coming to the end of his season add to which the travelling...the european horses are fresh, he is not...he will need to be every bit as good as he is hyped up to be, to win this anyway i haven't made my mind up yet but am firmly with the hannon horses, the trouble i have is i think both would just like a tad more cut in the ground making it a tad tougher, i didn't think the lockinge was a strong race class wise but it was certainly competitive and i just don't think these 2 have much to find, if at all with the top 2 in the market and we are getting a good price on both... most of the horses in behind them at newbury had had a prep run, which makes there performances much better than the bare form, toormore has a history of going well fresh but he was the one i was most taken by, running really well from a poor draw, night of thunder on the other hand was easy to back so i'd say he is likely to come on for the run and is the better of the 2 colts after beating toormore on 4 occasions but hughes comments after about him being gassy gives hope he could turn the form around but i have my doubts a really tricky affair but certainly a race to be playing with the top 2 in the market very beatable...fabres filly is certainly not out of this at a very big price pace looks like coming from glory awaits but he isn't the head strong character he used to be, so a strong pace is not guaranteed here, making the puzzle even harder, with most of the runners all being hold up horses, this scenario would be against solow for sure, i wonder whether toormore may make it, he seemed much less head strong at newbury and it could be argued one of his best performances was when making the running as a juvenile anyway a good thread and lots of good opinions i just think the market is wrong so will be taking on the top 2 in the market |