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Queen Anne Stakes 2015
Queen Anne Stakes 2015
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Not been through the race in detail yet, but when I think of Able Friend and (to a lesser extent) Solow, I think of what happened to Animal Kingdom when he went off at 5/4 in this race 2 years ago - though a cursory comparison suggests their form over a mile is better than his was.
I still think Toormore is interesting - circumstantial evidence is that Hannon was quick to point out he'd be running when questioned by Matt Chapman on ATR, that they're running him here rather than stepping him up to 10f as has been mooted and that Hughes was convinced he'd come on for the run prior to the Lockinge. Theoretically he was disadvantaged by the draw in the Lockinge and I think that was the case in practice because he lost some ground tacking over to challenge NoT along the rail. The downside is that he's 4-0 down to NoT in direct contests - the last two of those were close though and you could argue with a bit more luck in draw/running he might have finished in front of NoT. If I had to bet now, I'd back Toormore at the prices - I would n't totally dismiss Arod or Cable Bay (might be better over 7f) either. |
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Morning all....
Many thanks Sandown, an interesting read. Howellsy re the fast run mile on the straight track and AF, he needs a strong pace, the time he got beaten by Variety Club last year was when the pace didn't suit him, and he may well have had enough for the year by then after 2 battles with DOR over 1800 and 2000m. I'm definitely not shifting away from AF but I am not 100% confident, as mentioned he's travelled and he's not raced over a straight mile before but he has run 5 barrier trials over 1000m at Sha Tin and that's straight (2 in 2015). Looking forward to Tuesday, especially as I'll be in the UK - but unfortunately not attending live. |
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Bit off topic - but I am told that they are quite keen on Home of The Brave running a good race on Friday
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Morning HK, the link/article below is a good read. Compares Able Friend and Solow.
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/queen-anne-stakes-let%E2%80%99s-get-ready-to-r-rrrrrumble-1062015 |
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Thanks MrD - good read.
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RP reported that AF cantered at Ascot this morning and looked well.
The Timeform piece on the comparison between AF and Solow was useful and indeed they are two very good older horses. The Q Anne has gone to a 4yr 7 times in the past 10 years compared to 3 for 5 yr and older from the same number of runners more or less, but I don't believe that age is a factor and that this stat reflects the fact that few top class older milers have gone for this race. Goldikova won as a 5yr and was 2nd as a 6yr but there have been few of her class to run. Looking at the form of AF and Solow, the latter has performed best at further than 8f winning both her G1's at 9f. Indeed, she even has a win at 12f to her name. She has also run her best speed figure on very soft at Deaville (8f) so should the ground be on the easy side then the balance would swing in her favour. There is only tomorrow with rain forecast so it will be dry unless the Ascot clerk decides to water extensively. AF is clearly better on fast ground, his defeat to Variety Club being on rain affected good ground. He also is clearly a miler.I have no concerns about the straight course because being a big strong horse you might think that he would be more suited to a stiff galloping track than going round bends. The fact that he is so successful doing so indicates that he is a well balanced animal. My main concern would be the effects of travel and acclimatisation which we can't know about but the reports from this morning are encouraging. Mention was made earlier on here about Animal Kingdom running below form in this race in 2013 but the comparison is not a good one. AK was primarily a dirt horse whose best runs were over 10f. He ran very freely in the race and didn't appear to get home. There was a feeling that he might also have gone wrong. Another concern might be tactics as AF is a hold up horse and the jockey needs to be sure not to give himself too great a task, as there doesn't look to be a great deal of pace in the race with the principles all being held up. Arod may try to make all as he did last week and Glory Awaits may also be up there. The market is a good guide to this race with an average of around 10 runners, exposed form and 8 of past 10 races have gone to 1st or 2nd fav. |
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Don't know why
 I refer to Solow as "her" |
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I think you know this but Solow's a gelding Sandown!
Agree with you regarding Animal Kingdom, there is no comparison for me between him and Able Friend apart from both getting on a plane. I think Arod will try and make all again, PCH sort of said that after his win last Saturday... he will make the race a proper test. |
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Goldikova maybe, same connections!
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AF only lost 10b on the flight so you'd have to think the travel didn't really affect him - agree with Sandown on the straight mile, think it will suit him more than the bend based on his size, the issue for AF will be the ground.
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I won't pretend to have a great handle on HK form but it doesn't take an in depth knowledge to come to the conclusion that in general their Gp1s are weaker in depth than most European Gp1s. There are just far too many moderate older horses finishing close up. Another thing that can be gathered from the times is that generally they are more slowly run early with a sprint finish to the line. I don't doubt that Able Friend has put up some impressive finishes but it will be interesting to see how he performs in a more truly run race against better horses. The way he's built it's no surprise sprint finishes have been right up his street.If he acclimatises well I'm sure he won't disgrace himself but whether he'll look the superstar he has in his own back yard I have doubts.
Solow is no superstar for me, but he won't necessarily need to be. By my reckoning he's already run fast enough to take a typical running of the Queen Anne. I have him 3lbs ahead of anything Night of Thunder has shown and even at bigger prices the rest make even less appeal than NOT. Maybe Able Friend will look as talented at Ascot as he has at home but the way I see it from past experiences is if I back a horse I'm not absolutely sure of at a shortish price and it disappoints I feel a right mug afterwards. On the other hand I can take a shorter price on a horse that I'm sure is going to take all the beating. All things considered I think Solow is a reasonable price and hopefully better will be available nearer the time, he's the one I'll be backing. |
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Sorry, that should be 5lbs ahead of NOT.
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In fairness I did accept that Solow and Able Friend both have better form over a mile when introducing the Animal Kingdom dimension.
He still went off at 5/4 and if you go and take a look at the thread about him on the Horse Racing forum, there were plenty who could not countenance the idea of him being beaten before the race. I don't have much of a handle on the HK form and need to watch Able Friend in action - there is a danger I could be underrating him, I did see Solow's last race and there was a 'wow' factor at the time but I'm not sure how good that form is in the cold light of day. It's interesting that AF only lost 10lbs travelling but you would n't expect the reports to be anything other than encouraging unless there was an obvious problem - I think the issue can be as much about racing in an alien environment as the travel and acclimatisation - what about the jockey? I'm sure he's excellent but how many races has he ridden in UK/at Royal Ascot? I take the point about fav and 2nd fav having a great record in the race so all I'm really trying to say is that I don't think it's a two horse race - the market probably has it about right in terms of naked form but I personally think there's a good chance of Toormore producing a career best and a reasonable chance that one or both of the market principles will underperform and for that reason I want to be with Toormore e/w. |
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Figgis, I agree with most of what you say. Ascot's straight mile is the stiffest in the country. The past 5 runnings of the QA have averaged 98.03 secs with the ground given as Good 4 times and GS once. The average time for AF's last 5 8f wins is 93.92 secs meaning that AF is going to have to keep going for another 4 secs at least.Can he do that?
What intrigues me is the fact that AF can break 22 secs for the last 400m/2f so easily, seemingly without much effort.His fastest finish was 21.35 secs last time. Its true that the Sha Tin seems to race like Lingfields Polytrack and they sprint from off the turn having not has too strong a pace earlier. Nevertheless, thses finishing times are exceptionally good and he makes it look so effortless. Solow can put in good fractions as well, so it is a close thing between them. I really can't see that NOT & Toormore can produce those figures even though their RPR's say they are not far behind. I've taken the opposite view to you in that at the prices AF represents the better bet but there won't be much between them. I may reduce my potential loss on the day by having a partial saver on Solow so leveraging the odds for AF. |
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Sandown, yes I suppose the question is whether Able Friend has won those races in that fashion simply because he's far superior and that's just the way those races panned out or he is ideally suited to running in that style. If the overall time performances had been fairly impressive then you could say it wouldn't take much of a leap in a more strongly run race at Ascot. I don't have standards for HK tracks so can do no more than make an educated guess, but on the face of it his races haven't looked in keeping with races run in an overall fast time.
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Readelheath
I follow your reasoning and I would agree that at the current price of 12.5 Toormore represents EW value although expecting both AF & Solow to run below form is less likely imo than one alone, so to me the place part of the bet is better value than the win part of your bet. |
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Figgis
The HKJC puts our lot to shame. Try this for standard overall times and sectional times at Sha Tin http://www.hkjc.com/english/racinginfo/racing_course_time.htm I'll take an in-depth look myself |
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I agree that those in charge of HK racing are far ahead of the luddites we have. It would be interesting to know, though, how those standards are arrived at exactly, as the information given refers to 'average' times, which is a flawed method, imo.
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What is the correct method for standard times Figgis?
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I would have some worries for both Able friend and Solow, the one been running on quick surface against blindfolded rivals and the other must be close or may have indeed peaked possibly too soon??? not just a two horse race.Great race mind.
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MJ, well I suppose it depends on who you ask, but in my view taking strict averages will skew the results as on average there will be more truly run races over shorter distances. Also there may be more classy races over certain trips.
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AF's win in in the Hong Kong Mile on Dec 27 2014 (£1m ) was very strong form. The sectionals show that it was run at a strong even pace throughout, the leader throughout held on to be second. AF had a poor draw (matters) outside but he was dropped out and made up his ground easily. He was easy to pull up , so he had reserve energy but he had covered the last 2f in 21.71 secs some 1.09 secs faster than the group par for that sectional. The race had Trade Storm in it who had in his previous race finished 3rd in the BC mile. Rated 116 OR he finished some 10lb behind AF but AF was worth much more. The RPR was 127 and I could easily justify 130+ for the ease of the win. My time figures indicate that AF is clearly worthy of a 130 rating.Apart from Frankel, who was a freak, this level of form is good enough to have won 9 of the past 10 runnings of the QA.
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Sorry, Dec 14th
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bl**dy h*ll....meant to say "hard to pull up"
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Figgis re HK standard times. They have different standards for different classes of race for different distances so that should set your concerns at rest as any skewing will be within a much smaller range. Plus the sectional pars will show whether the race is evenly run or not. It really is a great deal easier than over here to work with imo.
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Yes, I agree, of all his recent races that is the only one that could be said to have been run at what I'd call a proper Gp1 pace and the overall time looks decent at least. Just how decent, though, I couldn't say. He finished clear of the rest but the rest were quite tightly bunched behind. In pure form terms it doesn't look as strong to me as the best I've seen of Solow.
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I'm totally with Howellsey on this one and think NOT @ 6/1 is a maximum e/w bet to nothing - of course he is nailed on to come 4th now.
 I'm not disputing the top two in the market might be better class but they have to prove it under these conditions whereas everything we know of NOT is that he is ideally suited to the race, track, trip and ground. GL all. |
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I wouldn't be worried about the jockey on AF, he's very very good and will have done plenty of homework, he's champ jockey in HK in only his 2nd season after winning everything in Singapore - he's also ridden group 1 winners in Aus and Dubai...so he's now a nailed on certainty to screw up on Tuesday now!
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agree with you unclep
Ill be following NOT off a cliff this year, think he needed the run in the lockinge, ring rusty at the very least, should have won the QE2 on the snaff, just had 50 quid in 2 pp shop at 6/1 money back if 2nd or 3rd as a free bet to use all week, seems a no brainer if you fancy it. alway happy to take on the visitors, total guess work on how AF will perfrom here, 9/4 barmy. |
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Agree 9-4 is a bit skinny FF but would you offer longer odds for the joint top rated horse in the world (prior to the revised figures which I think should be out today so suspect AF will be behind AP and maybe Solow), think setters are just covering themselves - it's either going to look a huge price or overhyped come 2.33 on Tuesday
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Should have checked....
http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/WTRRankings/LWBRR.asp?batch=21 |
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Not sure those longines ratings worth much, Gleneagles better than Duramente?
Figgis I have always had a problem with standard times, I think most do.No clear science behind them yet?, well nothing I have read over the years. Beyer base line times probably just about the same(less work) |
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+ over the jumps not many years ago the clock started on tape rise(oh dear start again)
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Gonig back too those longines, Firing line just 2lb inferior too Treve?
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MJ, there is science behind them, or at least maths, but just as people don't agree about something as basic as how many pounds per length (which can actually be proved to some satisfaction over a long period of results) they don't agree about standard times.
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http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd
The chances of the ground being good to firm for the first race of the five-day royal meeting were dealt a blow however by clerk of the course Chris Stickels, who expressed his aim is to start the meeting on ground "as close to good as possible". Whatever happened to the directive that good to firm was supposed to be the aim for summer flat racing ground? |
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Fan of Solow & would be making him one of my naps of the week.
Been very impressed with him since switching to shorter trips, has looked very classy with plenty of gears. Trainer rates him as gd as any he has trained, with all that in mind, i would be making him a solid play on day (race 1) hopefully some 2s available on Tues morn  |
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It's the same old story every year, the clerk of the course has to keep watering the bloody track. Racing pundits always come out with the line 'there will be no excuses for any horse on GOOD ground'... laughable. I would be bankrupt if I believed and followed this lazy thinking! It must be some kind of addiction. That one at Goodwood has got a serious addiction with getting his hosepipe out!
I'm sure there will be some on here who disagree with me.  |
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Since the Ascot straight track was relaid and the drainage improved it has nearly always ridden faster than the official description so I don't believe that it will turn on the soft side unless there is a torrential downpour tomorrow and then the clerk waters on top of that. Their aim is always to avoid watering during the meeting but usuually they do end up doing something around Friday. As long there is no soft in the description it should be Ok for AF but of course the advantage gap between AF and Solow will narrow. On the plus side, AF's connection appear very bullish.
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Just think ,there was no reason kingman needed to be retired last year ,as he had only run a few times ,6 i think ,what a race this would have been ,the big three .Don't get me wrong it is still a great race prob best at meeting ,but it just leave's a sour taste in my mouth when these 3yr are retired after so few runs .Back to reality, and will go AF and hope he wins for my own benefit and for the fact it might tempt more to travel to win these races .
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