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KING GEORGE

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Replies: 363

By:

Clarky9 When: 22 Dec 14 22:15

Everyone on here seems to think Cue Card will make the running.. Did they not see Wishful Thinking's run at Huntingdon?

By:

slash. When: 22 Dec 14 22:20

I think the ground is turned in menorahs favour an horse looks to be in form of his life IMO goes on track if dickie was on board I'd be very confident of him turning tables on conti

By:

Clarky9 When: 22 Dec 14 22:24

Just been looking at Menorah's form and Silvi has beaten him three or four times on all types of ground.

Everyone trying to pick holes in Silvi, but he deserves to be fav and 11/4 might look a very good price come Fri.

By:

slash. When: 22 Dec 14 22:27

Yea conti form is solid Clarky just worried bout ground and to many front runners could set it up conti , cue card and fever all front runners just trying to way race up an last time was closest menorah got to conti an just think the better ground will suit menorah better and is value IMO it's a two horse race

By:

FOYLESWAR When: 22 Dec 14 22:30

yeah clarky conti is the one to beat ,just think conditions will be more in cue cards favour, and at the prices backing cue card win and place,seems reasonable cue card 11/5 to place , of c ourse he may not be the horse he was but joe tizz is upbeat !

By:

alleged22 When: 22 Dec 14 22:40

a bit lower than that but im not a handicapper, he beat lto some horses on the downgrade and some very average horses with inflated marks, and he was getting weight from them all.

By:

slash. When: 22 Dec 14 22:49

Couldn't back cue card with free money hasn't even looked like the horse he was yet in either race this season and won't like being taken on with the other two front runners

By:

Flashy When: 22 Dec 14 23:03

Champagne Fever must be one of the most underpriced horses ever seen. If I am not mistaken, Edredon Bleu is the only horse in the last 25 years who won the King George having not won previously over 3 miles under rules. That day was good ground and only just got home. Champagne beat nothing last time, has a tendency to hit a fence, jumps left at times, not proven to get the trip (although probably will in time)has not won a chase in top company, and is 3-1 in places......has to be a place lay.

By:

ReaseHeath When: 22 Dec 14 23:16

Dec 22, 2014 -- 10:24PM, Clarky9 wrote:

Just been looking at Menorah's form and Silvi has beaten him three or four times on all types of ground.Everyone trying to pick holes in Silvi, but he deserves to be fav and 11/4 might look a very good price come Fri.

SC and Menorah have met 6 times over fences, each time at level weights - the score is 4-2 in favour of Conti but 3-0 to Conti on ground officially described as Soft and 2-1 to Menorah on ground officially described as Good, 2 races over 3 miles (2-0 Conti), 4 races over 3m 1f (2-2).

I took another look at this year's Charlie Hall, Conti clearly did n't run his race that day and needed it badly but what struck me on latest viewing was how easily Menorah won in the end, Johnson only had to show him the stick a couple of times.

I suspect Hobbs has it right when he states that Menorah's apparent improvement is due to him having more confidence in his jumping (he's always been classy) - the caveat, of course, is that if he clouts one his confidence could go to pieces mid race.

I think Menorah's a big player here and I like Al Ferof too, could n't back Cue Card after his last two runs and just a nagging doubt that he is n't going to be good as he was before his injury.Champagne Fever might win of course but backing a horse on what he can potentially do at 7/2 in a race like this is not for me especially when any of the four behind him in the betting can win if they reproduce their best form (s'pose you could have reservations about Alf at the trip until he's won over it).

Conti's a worthy favourite but a lot of the established runners seem to take turns beating each other in these races, terrible cliche but could just be a case of which one gets into the best rhythm on the day.

By:

alleged22 When: 22 Dec 14 23:23

being an AF lifelong fan!

the horses i fear are CC and dynaste imho, if it is G/S ground

By:

ReaseHeath When: 22 Dec 14 23:36

I think the ulcers explanation for Alf's form last season is entirely plausible.Even the race he won was over French Opera in a match. I don't see that the trip (or for that matter the ground) should be an issue - he has two graded chase wins on Soft and they were his most impressive performances to my eye (Paddy Power and this year's Ascot Chase - form in latter franked subsequently by both Wishfull Thinking and Somersby). He has the same sire and dam sire as Conti so the influences for stamina are there, only two tries at 3 miles over fences and even if you don't buy the ulcers explanation or like his KG perfromance last season, the second of those was in monsoon like conditions at Newbury where most would probably struggle unless ridden by Michael Phelps with a snorkel.

I thought Ruby's post race quote that he had 'loads of horse' under him at Ascot was quite telling plus throw in the fact that he'd only been back in training 8 weeks and Nicholls thought he'd come on for the run.

Anyway, I've banged on enough, as things stand Alf will be my main bet with a saver on Menorah and a little on the reverse forecast.

By:

harry callaghan When: 23 Dec 14 00:21

i'm with your comments reaseheath...i think i have most runners where i want them but i can't get my head round menorah at all...i believe he and wishful had breathing ops in summer, certainly explains him starting to back up his performances...was hoping to not have back one more but he is annoying and i'm in for a few pounds...just keep thinking of him from past but maybe he is over that now and the ground must surely suit more than he has encountered so far this season

really tricky betting heat i don't care how you cut it

By:

marychain1 When: 23 Dec 14 01:54

I'm really torn by this race. Normally by now I would have had one or two bets but I just can't find a bet I think I like. Cue Card is my favourite horse ever, in or out of training but I couldn't back him last timne out and I can't for this either. To me the one thing he has always looked like is a horse who has enjoyed racing and jumping but since the injury he looks like he is in pain. I hope I'm wrong and we see him back to his normal exuberant self but I fear we will never see the best of him. I do believe he could have won the Gold Cup. I appreciate I'm in the minority, and I don't think he will ever get the chance to prove me right now and I don't expect him to win this.

With regards to Silviniaco Conti he is a horse I respect and admire but one I have never really taken to. I'd like to find a way of opposing him (or just backing him anyway if it was clearly the right bet) but I think he is both a worthy favourite AND not a big enough price to back now. Well done to those who are on at 5/1 or bigger.

Champagne Fever could be the real thing and could win both this and the Gold Cup but up in trip and class on ground that is potentially unsuitable means I couldn't back it at 7/2. Al Ferof is short enough considering he's had failures at the top level. Dynaste is surely more of a place than win bet at this distance and level. I respect Menorah but I have just never thought he could win a proper top class staying chase and the fact that he is so short says more about the field than him imo.

At this stage if I was forced into a bet it would be a very small each way place on John's Spirit at 25/1, but I'd find it hard to argue he's really a valid contender and would be just for an interest in the race.

By:

sageform When: 23 Dec 14 08:31

On Al Ferof at 9.6 and Cue Card at 10 and still happy with that although SC is the form horse.

By:

Angel Gabrial When: 23 Dec 14 09:02

If the Betfair Chase at Haydock had been run on good/soft i would like to think Menorah would have won.

That being case, he would be a 4/1 shot for the KG. He is in the form of his life and to me is the value in the race now that his fencing seems much improved.

By:

dyno-layer When: 23 Dec 14 09:13

Does anyone know when the final declarations are made for this race and it becomes a day of the race market please ?

By:

SEATHESTARS....NO1 When: 23 Dec 14 09:24

23rd dec so today at 10am the antepost market will close

By:

dyno-layer When: 23 Dec 14 09:49

many thanks STS.

By:

dunlaying When: 23 Dec 14 15:46

Al Ferof e/w for me with Menorah and Silvi the obvious dangers. I think it should be noted that Silvie was said to have been suffering from ulcers as well.
Champagne Fever looks to have 10lb+ to find and while he may do it I see no value there at 4/1.
But what a smashing race it promises to be ,with the added bonus that all runners are so well known that even a poor race reader like me can turn the commentary off . Holt's histrionics have been giving my arse a headache of late.
MERRY CHRISTMAS

By:

marychain1 When: 23 Dec 14 17:17

Your arse has a head?

By:

harry callaghan When: 23 Dec 14 17:47

Tuesday 23rd December; 3:15 pm
Going Good to Soft
GoingStick Chase 6.2; Hurdle 6.0

By:

mecca When: 24 Dec 14 06:34

I'm with the op'''''' everyone trying to find the alternative, but it's Conti for me

By:

bonnie When: 24 Dec 14 07:57

anyone know if kempton got rain overnight ?

the way the course is drying out it will be gd/firm, hard in places on Fri !!!!!!

By:

sageform When: 24 Dec 14 08:05

Courses don't dry out much at this time of year. High humidity, low temperatures, no grass growth to remove any water. More rain would make a big difference though.

By:

bonnie When: 24 Dec 14 08:17

there was def rain forecast overnight, just wondering how much they got.

as you can tell, this bet means quite a lot to me !!!!!!!!

By:

FOYLESWAR When: 24 Dec 14 08:43

bonnie I am in south London and we have had some rain ,Kempton is not that far from me and I would imagine they have had similar ,but I cant be definite about it ,must be someone who can update ! harry Callaghan ?

By:

bonnie When: 24 Dec 14 09:04

thanks foyles, any rain is a bonus !!!!!!!!

By:

breadnbutter When: 24 Dec 14 09:11

am just up the road from kempton and mrs has just put a washing out ,nice morning .

By:

FOYLESWAR When: 24 Dec 14 10:13

breadnbutter, did you have any rain overnight ?

By:

sintonian When: 24 Dec 14 10:25

It is not going to be Soft ground. I think we can safely say that now. GS is fair for every horse. PFN knows the ground is not always guaranteed to be soft at Kempton that's why he was trained for Haydock IMO.

By:

harry callaghan When: 24 Dec 14 10:36

you still fancying dynaste sint? first time P plates i see

By:

sintonian When: 24 Dec 14 10:39

Well, I was a little underwhelmed with his peformance at Haydock, he was beaten 10 lengths in 3rd, but it depends how Pipe has trained him this year. I would guess that he will have left a lot to work on and Boxing Day is the main aim. The fact the ground will be better is a bonus as his last three runs on official good ground read 112, but it won't be that quick.

By:

sintonian When: 24 Dec 14 10:41

Scu & Pipe are getting a helicopter from Wincanton after the 1.40 to be there..

By:

sintonian When: 24 Dec 14 10:43

standard procedure.

By:

harry callaghan When: 24 Dec 14 10:49

thought the jockey rode him like he was out for the run at haydock...i have had a small bet on him but just not sure he is improving anymore and he needs to, to win this imo just not sure he has reached his peak but i suppose that is why they have reached for some headgear with him...agree ground fine...very tough betting heat

By:

alleged22 When: 24 Dec 14 11:07

metcheck say 7mm between 12 and 3 pm and a further 17mm between 3pm and 6 pm on boxing day

By:

sintonian When: 24 Dec 14 11:38

OK that could swing it in Sc's favour then..depends how soon the rain arrives.

By:

CVByrne When: 24 Dec 14 11:47

Laying Conti win and place. Have Champagne Fever back antepost, (also fr Gold Cup), will add Menorah.

By:

bonnie When: 24 Dec 14 12:55

cvbyrne - as a matter of interest, what is your reasoning for laying conti win and place ?

just curious as we are all punters and your view is the polar opposite to mine, i've bet conti at an average price of 7s to fairly good money, and even tho the ground will not be as testing as last year, conti still has the most solid form going into the race, and he has also won on decent ground at aintree.

By:

CVByrne When: 24 Dec 14 13:14

http://jumpsadviser.com/king-george/

There is my write up of the race.

Conti will find 3m on a flat speed track on good ground too quick for him. Last season the race fell apart and it turned into 2 horse race when Cue Card got tired. I can't see why Conti would have won that race had the ground been quicker. Similar I don't see him maintaining form with Menorah from the Betfair Chase, this tight track suits Menorah very well, as will the 1 furlong less and better ground.

There is too many dangers the only real strong play is laying the horse who you think will be beaten.