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KING GEORGE
KING GEORGE
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'Beautiful' ground forecast for King George
By Tom Kerr 12:51PM 24 DEC 2014 THE William Hill King George is set to be run on "beautiful jumping ground" after recent mild and dry conditions at Kempton. A perfect ten runners will line up on December 26 to contest the Grade 1, traditional highlight of Boxing Day racing, on ground that is predicted to dry out to good to soft, good in places from its present good to soft. Clerk of the course Barney Clifford said: "We had 0.4mm of rain overnight, it's bright and sunny here at present and we're forecast 12C. Tomorrow looks about 8C with 0C overnight into Boxing Day, which itself will be about 4C. "There's a bit of rain going into the 27th, there's rain forecast on Friday night into the 27th, but I think that's overnight rather than during the day which is good news. "The lads who were here this morning and had a canter round said it's lovely ground, good to soft. There's no more rain forecast before the King George so inevitably it is going to dry out a little bit, so I would think it will be good to soft, good in places come the King George. "It's an enormous change [from previous years]. It's been so mild, the track looks in excellent condition. Ten or 12 days ago it was soft ground and it's just drying out slowly. It's beautiful jumping ground." |
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my views, fwiw - conti won the betfair chase far more comfortably than the distances suggest, from a relatively early stage conti was able to travel easily alongside cue card, giving him a jumping lesson at the same time, because of this conti found himself in front far too early, he dossed in front and it was only when menorah challenged that conti picked up again.
i can see the king george being run at a good pace with cue card and champagne fever both free running sorts who like to dominate, the ground certainly won't be good as you suggest, i hope you aren't taking the charlie hall form literally as we all know that conti needed the run to set him up for the season. noel fehily said in yesterdays racing post that the horses go for home early at kempton, therfore proven stamina is a must. its all about opinions |
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it's not a case of taking the Charlie Hall form literally, it's just about the prices for me. You've got Conti at 5/1 and now close to race time he's 9/4,5/2. all the main contenders have stood their ground and it does n't look like he's going to get his optimum conditions (I'm not saying he can't win on GS).
I take the point about the pace, reading between the lines in his column on here, I think Ditcheat might make good use of Wonderful Charm if for some reason Champagne Fever or Cue Card don't want to take it on. |
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does menorahs jumping worry anyone back on better ground? they went very slow early at wetherby which allowed him to find his rhythm and the slow ground helped him in the betfair...
he will be suited by better ground but this also means they will go quicker so jumping will be at a premium, he certainly worries me in this regard, his wins at kempton really have been egg and spoon races although he clearly likes the track |
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"i hope you aren't taking the charlie hall form literally as we all know that conti needed the run to set him up for the season"...you put him up before the charlie hall @ 5-1.
he was 10-1 before the betfair, so you must have thought he was fit for wetherby. hope he wins by the way. |
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taking the 5s early on wasn't my finest moment, but with lots of subsequent bets i've got conti for an average of 7/1.
i had no idea prior to the charlie hall what his fitness levels were, hindsight is a truly wonderfull thing. but knowing what i knew post charlie hall (where i didn't bet him), i had a very decent bet on conti to win the betfair. |
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I don't factor that Charlie Hall form really at all. I haven't mentioned it with regards Conti. I just think it's a high quality renewal. His price is half what I think it should be.
I don't think the track and conditions suit. He just out stayed Cue Card in very soft ground last year and they were the only two horses to run their races. But he has lots of rivals with chances this time. When the pace quickens down the back he won't be able to go with them. He'll stay on again in the straight as the others tire but the race will be over by then. You've got some fast horses in this field, on a speed track on near good ground. Imperial Commander was a superb horse. But the Betfair Chase and Gold Cup were more his race than the speed around Kempton. Conti is a dour stayer and this isn't his kind of race. |
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not having a dig mate,just whatever you post can be scrutinised and brought back up.
would not be that worried about the ground was good at aintree,fancy the surface could be quite holding after this dry spell. looks pretty certain they will go a fair pace,so you will need to stay even round kempton. not much you can do about the weather,just sit back and hope the horse runs his race.(might be worth laying a bit of you win bet off) best of luck. |
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^^^..to bonnie
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He is hardly a dour stayer, he had Cue Card absolutely stuffed well out at Haydock. He has also won twice around Aintree on good ground on a track that hardly suits dour stayers.
It's a really tough race to work out for me but he is a deserving favourite and is about the right price i would say with all the dangers having a lot to prove, about time Conti got the respect he deserves |
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*hardly just*
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ive narrowed down the field either a dom alco or a kings theatre will win
gl all  |
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When assessing their chances in big races these days it seems standard from trainers and jockeys to say that they wouldn't swap their horses with any of the opposition. Mainly not to upset the owners!
But I actually mean it 100 per cent when I say just that regarding my big two in the King George. And, with this drying ground, I don't think Wonderful Charm is a bad third string to our bow, either. All three of mine schooled over 32 obstacles on Monday morning - all with their big race jockeys on board - and did it well. Ok, it may not be saying that much that I wouldn't swap Conti and Al Ferof when they are the first and third favourites for the race, but I couldn't be happier with my pair, with Silviniaco Conti the proven form horse and Al Ferof having the potential to improve past him. Of course, you have to respect second favourite Champagne Fever, who is actually a very similar type to Al Ferof. They both won well above-average Supremes and have to fully prove their stamina over this trip, and there is little doubting how impressive Willie's horse was at Clonmel last time. But you wouldn't say that he has the most consistent profile and, to my mind, he still has it prove in this top company over fences. That is something that we don't have to worry about with Conti, who went into overdrive from 2 out when beating Cue Card in this race last season. And I think that his second Betfair Chase win at Haydock last time was just about the equal of that performance, as he beat the Charlie Hall winner Menorah by two lengths, with Dynaste eight lengths back in third and Cue Card a further two lengths back in fourth. He is rock solid, even allowing for his below-par Wetherby comeback. So on Haydock form, I think that we have the beating of those horses in behind - though if Cue Card came back to his best on this better ground he would prove troublesome - and the only real potential negative is the prospect of drying ground here, as Conti is a stayer and he loves it soft. But it was decent ground when he beat Dynaste at Aintree, so we will just have to take whatever the weather hands us and get on with it. But if it remains good to soft ground, or better, then Al Ferof becomes an even bigger player. I got all sorts of grief on Twitter when he won at Ascot on his reappearance, as I said that he came in four weeks late and would definitely need the run. And both were correct. It is just that he absolutely hacked up, anyway. Ruby got off him and said he blew up going to the last, and for the horse to still go and beat the subsequent Tingle Creek second Somersby by seven lengths with Peterborough winner Wishfull Thinking back in third was clearly some performance. It must have been a career-best from him. Granted, he didn't look an obvious stayer when third in this race last year - and he has so much class and natural pace that I think he could hold his own in the best company over 2m - but the ground was very testing there, and it is conceivable there could be even more to come from him. For a 9yo, he doesn't have that many miles on the clock and we have kept him fresh for this. And he comes into this race bouncing, as does Conti. Of the others, top class 2m4f handicapper John's Spirit is interesting stepping up in trip, and I am happy to give Wonderful Charm another try at 3m. I appreciate that he is among the lowest-rated horses in here and is officially rated 15lb inferior to Conti, as well as having not looked a stayer in his two attempts at this trip. But he wasn't at his best on either of those occasions- both were at the end of the season - and he was less than two lengths behind Wishfull Thinking in the Peterborough last time and, like Al Ferof, he loves good ground. And Sam did get off him at Huntingdon and say 3m could be what he wants. He may be a 50-1 chance but I'd like to think that he will outrun those odds. And the pace angle is an interesting aspect of this race. But I'll keep that under my hat for now, if you don't mind! |
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wonderfull charm to hassle cue card early on then !!!!
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I'll be looking to lay Menorah 1st 4 places waiting on what price that will be
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i'm starting to like dynaste for this. clearly needed the run in the betfair, had back problems after last year's race. kempton suits him down to the ground. think it's possible with the experience of last year under his belt that he can find the required improvement.
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W.Mullins is sending over a solid 4/1 2nd best to the kg that cant win .....does not sound right tbh .
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Kempton Park
Next Race Friday 26th December Report Date Wednesday 24th December; 12:45 pm Going Good to Soft GoingStick Chase 6.0; Hurdle 5.7 on Wednesday at 12:30 not sure after 0.4mm of rain the ground could worsen  from yesterday...very confusing |
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I have narrowed it further, no Supreme winner will win!
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Hey PF
 I just feel 3 miles on good ground given this opposition he is too short at 5/2 so felt the need to lay him. At 4/1 I wouldn't be a layer. My reasoning is he's run at best a low 160's in his 2 wins at Aintree in spring and that was over 1 furlong further. Dynaste doesn't stay that trip, nor does Menorah in the 3m1f on soft of Haydock. I wouldn't be surprised if either those two reverse their 2l defeats to Conti here. If Cue Card and Conti ran to the exact same level as last years race I would expect Cue Card to not tire like he did and win. Al Ferof has his excuses, rightly or wrongly for last years running. He put up a superb performance lto and is a big danger. Then we have Champagne Fever who is a big danger if he stays, Ruby may be allowed to dictate from the front. He's a high class horse. So we've got dangers everywhere and rather than try pick one of them when they're all around or near their right prices, I think it's the call to lay Conti and hopefully one of them (or 3 preferably) will beat him. It's a very open race, I think the top 6 all have good claims |
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with Silviniaco Conti the proven form horse and Al Ferof having the potential to improve past him.
very interesting nicholls feels this way..... |
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and you,d expect him to say conti,s not the form horse ,i,m running al ferof because he,s in the one man colours and wondeful charm because ive always wanted a 50 to 1 shot in the race
wasnt the word from ditcheat last week that al ferof doesnt see which way conti goes on the gallops different day different shoite twas ever pumpkins way |
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slybet go 124% the field, god i hate bookmakers.
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Every horse exposed apart from Champagne Fever. Get On.
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The forecast rain for Boxing Day evening seems to have drifted forward a bit and is due to start in the afternoon now. Doesn't seem to be suggesting much at the moment, unless it comes in a little earlier again.
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Exposed, you understand what that means? Being exposed as a 174 chaser means you can run to a 174! which will almost certainly win this race.
I think some believe exposed means, I know how good you are etc.. |
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haha, the expected rain is now due on or around race time, hows my luck ??
merry christmas everyone |
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unfortunately its going to come well after the race
merry xmas |
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heavy rain now expected 16.00 hrs, race off time 15.10 !!!!!!
now if the heavy rain could shift itself forwards to say, 11.00.......................... |
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or backwards lol
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Yeah he's right, rain due arund 2pm.
I'll not lay Conti if it's raining long enough to get into the ground. I'll get out of my bet. I'll wait for the forecast tomorrow morning as bookies will probably push Conti out anyway I can get off on better terms. |
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alleged22 24 Dec 14 17:54 Joined: 18 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 3,545 | Blogger: alleged22's blog
with Silviniaco Conti the proven form horse and Al Ferof having the potential to improve past him. Utter rubbish!! I am a firm believer that trainers ALWAYS KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THE GOT at home and how good horses are against others etc, they either just choose not to relay that info to the public OR and most likely they are not allowed to owing to the privileged information rule which is most likely. In a lot of cases us punters just need to follow the markets on the day, there are always bookmakers much slower than others to react to shortening of prices, it is these i pounce on  |
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Has Champagne Fever lost a leg? There seems to be a big difference in prices, as small as 3-1 but as big as 11/2 with hills and drifting it seems.
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Trainers with different owners will always sound universally optimistic Seathestars. Nicholl's is not going to tell an owner his horse is running for place money. Any optimism is not unfounded anyway, serves to keep the other owners feet on the ground and open a portal to any dissapointment.
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I would be very worried that Hills are going nearly twice the price of some other bookies, expect the announcement; "he's not eaten up" or something along those lines. Too much Champagne and He's definately showing withdrawal symtoms...
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And that is also utter bollox sisyphus, the very fact that hills are nearly twice the price is nothing to do with horses that may or may not turn up etc, more to do with it is their own race, they sponsor it so will try to be best price on everything. They do it every year that they have been sponsor of the race. Expect a 100% or even an under round book come 9am Friday from hills. Or at least some tasty push outs for a limited period of time of the morning.
The fact that other books have horrific over rounds currently is to try and grab as much sheep as possible into the dismal prices so then its more affordable for any advertisements they might be planning on doing. I know 365 often do it, cut most night before the match best price after 10am. |
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I am expecting hills to be 3/1 conti and hold 11/2 CF and be joint top price on oddschecker the others
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At least for a short time from 9am
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In shops
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Ok, he's got a temperature! lol
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