Sandown   

I'm with plenty of others in thinking that so far Australia is far below what we might have expected to see after AOB's glowing write-up and comments.I still believe that he will show himself to be a 130+ horse, but even that would put him nowhere in rankings especially and way off being even the best that AOB has trained.

Sandown, how do you see the betting as the race stands at the moment? Will you be backing Australia, looking to oppose him, or do you think the betting is correct?

Oh dear. Nothing from that at all. Through J Wonder the winner and AM should have finished close. Obviously not right I would have thought. We'll see.

You could be right Wickedt.

what made you believe that AM had better form than the winner? J WONDER form is not really top class level.

Road:Well JW and AM met first time out and I thought AM should/could have won that day. JW is probably only a 7 furlong horse and led at that mark in the French Guineas and Bawina was behind her at that point. And this was a only a Group 3. Both Bawina and Amazing Maria are the only two horses who have been highly tried with AM targeting the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Nassau Stakes while Bawina has targeted the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks. I didn't think she had better form but I thought she had equal form. Add to that this was a French fillies race where sometimes you can bet 5 horses and not get a winner. I have waited for AM and thought she had a solid EW chance. And on form through the winner she should have been al least 2nd. That's why.

I was disappointed that Noble Mission wasn't declared as I don't believe he necessarily needs it soft, but he has been busy recently so maybe that affected their decision. He and Mukhadram were my main hopes for opposing Australia. I finally realised where I'd gone wrong in slightly overrating Telescope in the Hardwicke. I still think his King George form should see him go close but the big concern I have with him is I thought he looked absolutely bollocksed towards the latter stages of the race, I'm not sure how he'll come out of that and I wouldn't be at all confident of him confirming the form with Mukhadram, particularly over this shorter trip.  Mukhadram has also been busy but he seems a tough horse who generally manages to run to a similar level of form. The Grey Gatsby could be forgiven his poor run on very soft ground, but even with a valid excuse you're taking it on trust that the horse wouldn't have run disappointingly anyway.

If the betting doesn't change too much I may possibly opt for what I see as an each way bet to nothing on Mukhadram, rather than a lay of Australia, but I'll have to see the final field and how the betting goes. As Australia has been more targeted at the race than the rest I would have more confidence in him running his race than the others, and very often races are won simply by the horse that runs its race, so that has to be a big positive for him, however, I still couldn't entertain backing him at these kind of prices as I don't see that he has a better chance than his price.

That's assuming they choose to run Australia, of course.

never had a bet in the race today, would only concentrate on the horses i know that have achieved the highest standard so far, that would of been avenir certain and miss france, and in one of those races bawina had trouble in running, looking at the form, has run
really well, seems to have been drawn badly as well, only run out of it in the last 100 yards in the prix de diane. reading the RP
comments seems to have run better than its finishing positions suggest. the fact that other horses have come out of those races
and won group 3 races, makes the form of the fav even stronger today.

Sorry for the late reply H. Been out. Ed in the RP today said 'We already know she handles soft ground, Gerald Mosse has won on her, and she has been working very nicely'. And on the day of the Nassau he wrote 'She needs rain and if we don't get what's forecast she won't run'. Something was wrong today and maybe as already been suggested she hasn't trained on.

amazing what they say after this quote last year

The Total Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on October 6 is the alternative race for the Ed Dunlop-trained filly, who showed she deserved the chance at the top level when making all the running to land the Group Three Prestige Stakes at Goodwood.

"She's come out of the race well. Ed's pleased with her and the plan is to go for the Shadwell Fillies' Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac," said Barry Simpson, racing manager to owner Sir Robert Ogden.

    Profiles

    E A L Dunlop
    Amazing Maria (IRE)

"The ground will be a factor in the decision. I don't think we'd want to run her on soft ground again, although she coped with it well enough at Goodwood.

"She wants good, fast ground, if at all possible. We would hope we'd be going to either race with a chance. She deserves that opportunity.

"I would think the Shadwell Fillies' Mile would be the favourite rather than the other one, but if the ground came up very soft at Newmarket for instance, then we might look at the Boussac.

JOB to ride Australia at York. Arrghhh.

Put up 1lb over on one due to carry 9st today.

If it's happened in this country during my time I can't remember it. There was the business a few years ago with Peslier going out in the wrong boots and putting up 2lb overweight when Goldikova was defeated by Canford Cliffs in the Queen Anne. If he's committed then he really ought to be able to shed 3lbs in 2 days.

it means anything other than they always want Joseph to ride their best horses if possible.

I understand that A_T, and it is admirable. As Figgis said he put up 1lb overweight on a winner today so he will have to lose 3lb and that will not be easy. That's if he intends to do the weight. I've had my worries about Coolmore in the past, I know it is contrary to popular opinion, so I hope this doesn't turn into one of their mess ups.

Will Eagle Top run?

could coolmore switch jockey say weds mid morning if it become apparent joesph wasnt going to the weight ?

AOB quote:

"Joseph is able to do 8st 12lb. We don't let him do it although he has done it last year and he will do it when he needs to do it. We'll leave the decision to him but he is mad keen to ride."

Hope you are right FF but I have to say I very much doubt it. I was always going to wait until the day anyway with the going a possible issue.

Not sure what happened at the end there but I meant to say at the end of the day I will be happy if he or The Great Gatsby wins and just hope I`m not miles out on the price I take.