Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1069 comments are related to the topic:
Juddmonte International York
Juddmonte International York
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,069
|
By:
In would be extremely interested and fascinated in what price you think the horses will be on the day. And what is a good price to take, in your opinion. Now that I would find very interesting.
|
|
By:
afternoon figgis
tricky question figgis for me...generally i try to make a tissue on what i believe the true reflection of a horses chances are and go from there but in short no, as is the quickest way to poor house, however if you are a selective punter it may work for you...if we come back to treve just for a second just before the off we knew she hadn't moved well to post well and then we were getting big odds about all the other runners so betting blind in this instance would be silly(not a dig at you brigust) but this gave the punter the edge in this race, as she was eating the market and some people on course wouldn't of had this info or if we had bet early we also wouldn't of known...so many variables my betting invariably revolves around whether i think i can get one who is eating the market then couple horses sometimes up to six in bigger fields, if i believe i think the market is wrong in regards the upper end of the market and trade in running as well to safe guard my money... a recent example on pricing, if you take kingman as an example i actually had him down as a 4 on shot in my book in the sussex and actually thought he was a big price at around 1-2 but i just don't like betting at those odds unless i am laying as isn't for me, hopefully that shows where i am at...this isn't to say i am right just what i had him down at i may of been wrong of course come the day in this race australia is probably a likely winner but we won't know the variables till the day ie pace, ground draw bias, how he is in the paddock...you just never know but the market will react to all these and hopefully we can seek some value somewhere... i know i'm pizzing on a bit but if the market is right on what i believe it should be, no i wouldn't wager as no edge... |
|
By:
if you take kingman as an example i actually had him down as a 4 on shot in my book in the sussex and actually thought he was a big price at around 1-2 but i just don't like betting at those odds unless i am laying as isn't for me
I don't see anything wrong with that. I will sometimes bet as low as 1/2 but it's only rarely and generally I don't go below 4/5. Some people will say well it's still value at 1/3 if you think it's a 1/6 chance, and they'd be right, but it's just not for me. I wouldn't have the same confidence in accurately predicting prices when they're so short. I think if you're betting to an extremely high strike rate that should go hand in hand with short prices then it'll take longer to realise if you're doing something wrong. You could back 10 winners on the spin at odds of 1/6 but it wouldn't necessarily prove the bets were any better than 1/5 chances in truth. I also think there are far better opportunities at longer odds without having to bet so short. come the day in this race australia is probably a likely winner I agree. The difference is most of us, including you, will have a price in mind on the day that we think represents that chance, if he's significantly better we'll back him, if he's significantly shorter we'll oppose him. |
|
By:
No offence taken H. I was working in France at the time so missed Royal Ascot altogether.
|
|
By:
As someone who hasn't a price in mind because I don't study the market what sort of price are we talking about? I won't hold it against you because things do happen and it won't affect my betting because I will only be taking the best price on the day that I can.
|
|
By:
This is like groundhog day. I've already said time and again he's a lay at 4/6 if the opposition holds up.
|
|
By:
No that's good. Only I have just been told that if he is significantly better there will be a reason for that and he may not be a bet whereas if he is significantly shorter it is a true reflection of his chance. At least now we have a tangible figure to work around. Me? I will be taking the best price I can on the day and hope they take him on.
When is the next declaration stage? |
|
By:
Only I have just been told that if he is significantly better there will be a reason for that and he may not be a bet whereas if he is significantly shorter it is a true reflection of his chance
It was Sandown who said that, but I agree, within reason of course which I'm assuming is how he meant it. If I think a horse has a 1/2 chance but I'm getting odds against (it does happen occasionally) but I know the reasons why the market has underrated its chance, or the market has overrated another runner, then I will bet with the same confidence. If, however, a horse looks to have an obvious chance on form and conditions appear to be in its favour but some people are falling over themselves to jump to the front of the queue to lay it for no apparent reason then it's normally foolish to ignore such a drift. If there was some rain and the ground came good next week and Australia was still declared but drifted to 6/4 (wishful thinking) then I would see that as an accountable drift and actually I'd back him. On the other hand if the ground was good to firm and Australia drifted to bigger than that then I'd say something probably wasn't right. Fortunately occasions like that rarely happen in the bigger races. |
|
By:
I agree. The difference is most of us, including you, will have a price in mind on the day that we think represents that chance, if he's significantly better we'll back him, if he's significantly shorter we'll oppose him.
just on this point figgis if australia is a big drifter ie even money say....does he then become a bet in your book or are alarm bells ringing? or on another hand would this just be because say a gamble is occurring on another horse...ambiguous question i know a great example was shifting power at goodwood he was a massive price on all known form against the opposition and in fairness to the horse he should of been odds on but they couldn't give him away(hard races all season probably the cause) but the market knew this on the day 2.7 i think and friendless in running even though he had a good position in running...should he of been a bet because of the price or not? or in my case do you see this as an edge or a play because of the price you are getting on the other runners? on your other point above i once knew an elderly pro punter probably 15 years ago now who would frequent my local bookmakers on occasion, he would not have a problem backing a 4-11 shot for his £110 pounds i used to think he was mad but he was a good player who would have his little book of bets all written down some at big prices and some at low it was just what he believed was a good wager and value as he thought this horse was a 1-4 shot (it certainly won like it tbf to him)...i still respect him to this day because he did so many things right in his betting and was very well informed judge with a decent staking plan but he saw that £40 as a pick up and had the rule that he would never go in more than 3 times in one day(discipline for him i suppose)...each to there own i suppose but he certainly made it pay and his little book with bet reasons, prices returned lives with me still now |
|
By:
Tomorrow Confirmation of Entries and any supplements.
|
|
By:
a great example was shifting power at goodwood he was a massive price on all known form against the opposition and in fairness to the horse he should of been odds on but they couldn't give him away(hard races all season probably the cause) but the market knew this on the day 2.7 i think and friendless in running even though he had a good position in running...should he of been a bet because of the price or not?
Harry, I posted on the day of the race that I thought Shifting Power was the right fav but made no appeal at the price. Tbh I can't remember exactly what price he was at the time but if he drifted I still didn't back him. I did say that he might be a horse on a downward slide and any drift I would've seen as people reaching the same conclusion that he was too short. It would be different with a horse like Australia, who, all things being well, I would expect him to run his race. If he drifted because of the ground, or, as you say, another runner being heavily backed I would definitely step in at a price I was happy with. |
|
By:
Apologies, I think it was Toormore I said could've been on a downward slide, anyway I wasn't tempted to back Shifting Power at his price.
|
|
By:
fair play i hadn't seen above post which answered the question, that explains it...can't remember shifting power posts was just using him as an example in this scenario
|
|
By:
on your other point above i once knew an elderly pro punter probably 15 years ago now who would frequent my local bookmakers on occasion, he would not have a problem backing a 4-11 shot for his £110 pounds i used to think he was mad but he was a good player who would have his little book of bets all written down some at big prices and some at low it was just what he believed was a good wager and value as he thought this horse was a 1-4 shot (it certainly won like it tbf to him)...i still respect him to this day because he did so many things right in his betting and was very well informed judge with a decent staking plan but he saw that £40 as a pick up and had the rule that he would never go in more than 3 times in one day(discipline for him i suppose)...each to there own i suppose but he certainly made it pay and his little book with bet reasons, prices returned lives with me still now
I'm sure there are people like him out there who bet profitably at those kind of prices. It depends how expert you are at pricing up 1/4 chances accurately. Even though all pricing is relative, personally I feel more confident about pricing up a 4/1 chance than a 1/4. |
|
By:
i think this was before exchanges figgis and he was retiring from betting that year so he said...when you think you have to back so many winners before making profit it just shows how tough it is backing short ones...just one slip up and it is a long road back imo
|
|
By:
trying to read between the lines can be fatal but these look likely runners
australia telescope mukhradam the grey gatsby arod maybe a pace maker so maybe an edge to be had first 3 betting not that i can find it  |
|
By:
Yes, harry. Another problem when betting so short is that, ok so you've factored in how many pounds the horse supposedly has in hand of the opposition and conditions are perfect, but what about the possibility that the horse will run below form? How are you going to factor that into the short price? Racehorses are, on the whole, admirably consistent but in my view they don't run to the pound like clockwork anything like they're spoken of as doing.
|
|
By:
just on australia anyone got any views
i have to started downgrading the derby race as is my want...the proximity of the slow boat(on that ground) kingston hill is really holding the race down, add to that orchestra antics, western hymn liking for soft and prob 1m2f arod didn't like track or trip...romsdal also may like softer conditions and the race doesn't add up to the ratings given imo i have major reservations now, i know the time was ok but the race itself is giving me major reservations about the overall value of the form i have adjusted it down but i am normally brutal in this regard, however just not sure the value of the race... anyone got reservations about the rating or are we dealing with a pretty decent grade derby winner, i myself have alarm bells in regards how high it has been rated...i could be very wrong of course but i wouldn't have him as far clear as the betting suggests here in regards the older horses running from a handicapping point of view and the bulimic price on offer...the more i delve the more i have reservations about the derby, that isn't to say he himself can't improve more but at the prices he should be at least 11-10 imo...at the odds i would want to be dealing with a class of say a giants causeway to warrant the price and this horse is not in that league imo anyway any thoughts from the handicappers |
|
By:
especially in regards the derby?
|
|
By:
I have him as just a typical winner, harry, I use typical instead of average as that is sometimes misconstrued as mediocre. He's better than moderate winners like Ruler of the World but a few pounds short of the better winners like Authorized. In comparison to Camelot I have Australia's Guineas performance 1lb higher but his Derby performance 3lbs lower, so there's definitely an argument that he'll be better over 10f than 12f. Nevertheless, I wouldn't have him with more than 2lbs in hand of Mukhadram, which may be enough (and Mukhadram has been busy recently so you couldn't be sure he'll run his race) but I still couldn't have him as a 4/7 chance unless the field really cuts up.
|
|
By:
All the firms have the following runners on offer
In betting order Australia Telescope Mukhadram The Grey Gatsby Kingston Hill Noble Mission Trading Leather Arod True Story The odds on offer equate to approximately 137% and therefore allow for several to be pulled out without taking a bath on one of the runners. On Betfair the same runners equate to approximately 112% which also allows for a few to be taken out and based on what is on offer these could be Kingston Hill, True Story and possibly Arod, The Grey Gatsby and Trading Leather. We`ll all know more tomorrow but Australia is currently around 8/11 on Betfair and given the above information unless there are some surprise withdrawals I would suggest 4/6 or better will be on offer. There you are Figgis and Brig pick the bones out of that.  |
|
By:
ye i'm the same just haven't got him far clear at all and agree in regards his derby...kingston hill running on conditions faster than he cares for really is holding the race down for me and then we are already into the also rans of which a lot had excuses, so am really sceptical now in regards the race and after all we are dealing with a 4-7 shot here which would suggest he is a very good derby winner wouldn't you say? i agree he will be better at 1m2f but i have him within a pound of the older horses and he is coming in off the layoff so the price is extreme to say the least...i suppose on the other hand we are dealing with some quite exposed older horses tbf
|
|
By:
tiz very rare though harry to find a 4 or 5 year old running in a group 1 that isn't thouroughly exposed
|
|
By:
Figgis 13 Aug 14 12:37 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 4,739 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
So I backed Treve small and only to cover my stake on Australia for the Arc. Treve was odds on, so your bet on Australia must be for very small stakes, why feel the need to cover a small bet with an odds on poke? Figgis, this is what I said at the time. Given Treve's prohibitive odds of 4/6 he would have had to had a reasonable stake on her if it was a genuine saver, unless his bet on Aus for the Arc was a pittance, but for some reason he had to slip in the word ''small''. Trying to save face in the event of a defeat? Oh, it doesn't matter, it's only a small stake. A nice flippant approach to betting eh. I assume you and Sandown have indulged this fool for so long because of the sheer comedy value. It has to be the reason. On a separate note... if on the off chance someone new to betting is reading this thread.. DO NOT LISTEN TO A FR1CKIN WORD Brigust says. You'll end up on the poor bus for eternity with not so much as a cheese sandwich in your lunchbox. |
|
By:
It's not really alleged. I could name you half a dozen right now. Many horses at 4/5 are underraced due to injury. Al Kazeem the most recent example.
|
|
By:
Farhh another one. Both turned out to be multiple G1 winners.
|
|
By:
im not saying it doesn't happen sint its just rarer, eagle top next yr will not be overly exposed as an example, imo al kazeem is exposed, I know he only had the one run as a 4 year old but as a 5 year old we saw him enough times, he raced at 2 and 3 aswell, some would say telescope is not overly exposed as a 4 year old, he is lightly raced, but imo he is and next year he will be thouroughly exposed, these are just my opinions
 |
|
By:
I agree with farhh as a 4 year old in the POW it was just his 4th start totally unexposed.
al kazeem had 8 starts before his injury so the same cannot be said about him imo, he came back as a 5 year old fully mature and imo there is no improvement left , that doesn't take away the fact that he is a very good consistent horse at the highest level. |
|
By:
If anyone is interested I had 190 notes on Treve in the POW. It would have covered most of my ante post bet on Australia for the Arc. Considering I had already backed Australia for the Derby and in a double for the Arc having a few notes on at 8s and 10s instead of adding a bit more to my Derby bet seemed sensible. When you consider she was odds on and I had a ton on Ruler of the World at 12 and a ton on Flintshire at 18 in the King George, as given on here, it was a small bet. But I'm sure no-one is interested.
|
|
By:
can I ask brig...
what you lost on treve, ruler of the world and Flintshire, did the winnings from Australia cover those bets? |
|
By:
I had a monkey on Australia so I guess it did but I did lose a ton on him in the Guineas and I have a trixie still running. I do back losers and I had a monkey on Toronado and a thing of Hannon's in the first at Ascot and on J Wonder the other day. I do back losers though but I'm up on the year. It has been really fragmented because of work. If you want to know why 190 on Treve. A friend, a plasterer who does some work for me owed me 250. I told him to put it on Treve. He said he wanted to back Toronado. I had already backed Toronado so I said back him and what's left put on Treve for me. When I got back he told me he had 60 on Toronado and 190 for me on Treve. He still owes me the 60.
|
|
By:
He still owes me the 60
are you sure he didn't put the whole 250 on toronado |
|
By:
my old man told me to put 2 ton on midday in this very race a few years ago, I got caught in traffic on the M5 so was not able to put the bet on. when I went round that evening he had a face like thunder, he was always a sore loser
me other half had planed to spend it  but it made the old mans day when I told him the craic and gave him his money  |
|
By:
Great stuff I'm sure we all have similar tales. A couple of years ago I won 4k on a scoop 6 place ticket. I thought I would reinvest some of it so when the pot reached a good size I spent a couple of days going through the races. I came up with a 433334 for about 2.5k. I didn't want to stand it all so I asked a mate to go halves. He said he would then changed his mind so I gave it a miss. All 6 won and paid 110k. I still remind him but haven't done it since.
|
|
By:
AUSTRALIA will have a new jockey should he run in the Juddmonte International at York next Wednesday, but trainer Aidan O'Brien has warned the colt's participation is far from certain.
O'Brien, who has won York's richest race three times in the last six years, said: "We won't be making a decision about Australia running for another few days. He's being trained with the race in mind, but it's still in the balance if he will travel. "If he does run Joseph won't be riding him as 8st 12lb is below his minimum. We'll wait until we decide about running before confirming a jockey." |
|
By:
Sounds ominous. Well done Coolmore. Perhaps the Irish Champion then the Arc. I couldn't see them doing all three. Who knows with this lot?
|
|
By:
Entries
Australia Telescope Mukhadram Eagle Top The Grey Gatsby Kingston Hill Hall of Mirrors Kingsbarns Arod Trading Leather Kingfisher Plenty of pace. |
|
By:
Kingston Hill may get his ground at York , it may seem a stretch to some but i think he may have a better chance of turning over Australia over ten and a half furlongs on softish ground than he has of beating Eagle top in the Voltiger , Eagle top looks a proper stayer , very impressed by this progressive horse.
|
|
By:
It becomes quite boring reading the rantings of grown men behaving like pre-pubescent schoolgirls.
|
|
By:
So does hearing people saying they're bored by things they can choose to ignore.
|