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Juddmonte International York

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By:
brigust1
When: 13 Sep 14 23:27
^^ you won't be reading this just as you never read what I wrote. I said 'I find it very hard to think TGG is anywhere near real top class' and not 'he is not top class'. There is a huge difference when you consider AOB has being saying all along Australia is his best ever horse. Something does not add up big time.
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 07:41
The figures aside,Australia visually is of excellent character,cruises in his races,but on every occasion,seems to take a while to find his gear(which is not electric),and then appears to idol. TGG did improve more from the Guineas than Australia, and to be honest I feel whichever one of the two gets the hold up tactics,or whoever makes their move last would be favored,TGG did that last night,and some great race tactics,I do not want to slag JOB to much ,I feel he was under pressure to show Austral;ia to better effect,AOB said his previous run was a practice gallop and he needed the run,everyone was looking for at least a 4 length victory or  to extend the winning margin over TGG. The truth I believe, is that Australia lacks the gears to put himself into good positions,it is all done late in the day,a great horse among his own  generation without doubt,but no superstar.
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 09:43
Now from a ratings viewpoint,nothing at all to be disappointed about, would have yesterdays performance at around 126 - 128,and taking into consideration he probably lost 3-4 lengths with a wide track,is not badGrin, this sort of figure would be plenty good enough to take the breeders at 10f +,tactically  Australia may be a little bit of a jockeys nightmare? he is never gonna win too easy,needs to held up late as is possible,and not quick to find a change of gear?But most would be happy to take the ride me thinks.You never know,but now he is beaten, they may even decide to keep him in training,he still looks weak to me with the possibility of more growth? suspect AOB may be on the spot a little and likely to retire him(but you never know)
By:
mac99
When: 14 Sep 14 10:33
we all saw yesterday  how not to judge a horse on one run , Muthmir  came into the portland a fresh horse  and showed his true ability
Australia did not show his true  brilliance yesterday. If they were to race again O'brien would sit in behind Moore  and outspeed him in the last furlong,  Kingman style . You have to admire TGG a tremendously enthusiastic and talented Horse .
By:
mac99
When: 14 Sep 14 10:34
We all  saw on Saturday*
By:
A_T
When: 14 Sep 14 10:45
I doubt they'll send Australia to the Arc or QEII for another beating - more likely Champion Stakes or retirement. Though Coolmore have shown willingness to campaign their Debry winners at 4 - especially when they haven't been able to send them to stud on a high at 3.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 11:21
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 11:22
I'm not entirely sure I agree with that A_T. I think Australia would beat Kingman in the QE11 and I also think he would win the Arc. I know others would disagree, that's racing, but had I said yesterday TGG would beat Australia others would have disagreed about that, and been wrong.
This years 3 year olds look much better than the older horses so I would fear nothing in the Arc.
My point about TGG not being real top class imo is pointed at AOB. According to him Australia has nothing left to prove and is among the best horses he has trained, or even the best. So I find yesterday's result incongruous with that statement.
In yesterday's race it is clear JOB used his horse up before the final furlong and that allowed RM to nab him because he had saved his horse. My only thought that would assist AOB in his view is that yesterday's race wasn't strong enough or run fast enough throughout. There is a saying that if you go a bad horse's pace a bad horse will beat you so the only answer for me would be to run in a strongly run end to end race where the best horse would prevail. To get that sort of strength in depth he would have to run in the ARC. The Champion Stakes could be another small runner race providing an inadequate result.
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 11:30
He may be exposed now to many rivals who will feel the need to let Australia have first run?
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 11:31
I think he idols in-front(would not be on my own with that view)
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 11:39
I would have a mental problem betting Australia for the Arc,just think too much hustle and bustle in the race,whoever rode may be tempted to move earlier than needed?(a cool head needed)
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 11:41
Concerning taking on kingman,both trainers would now understand both need holding until last possible 12 seconds,kingman got a more natural reaction when asked to quicken?
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 11:43
The breeders would look easier target.
By:
A_T
When: 14 Sep 14 11:46
Australia would have no chance whatsoever of beating Kingman over a mile - just has not got that kind of speed - just as Gosden's horse would not beat it over 10 of 12 furlongs - horses for courses. On paper Aus might have a good chance in the Arc but Aiden has a very poor record in the race with 3yos and he's probably left his best form behind him this year now. Doubt he'll run.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 11:55
You could be right about the Breeder's Cup but will they really swerve Ascot and France when they have prepared him for an autumn campaign? They have almost nothing to lose now. A bit like Camelot after he was beaten in the St Leger.
Australia clearly has top form at 12f but AOB and JOB have said he is better over shorter. I'm not convinced of that fact but they should know their horse.
So the choices are three fold. The QE11, the Champion Stakes and the Arc. If he went for the QE11, they have said they think he is better over shorter, then beating Kingman would provide some redemption plus Kingman has been beaten in the only strongly run mile race he has run in.
If they choose the Champion Stakes they could meet TGG and Free Eagle and completely lose everything they have left.
Or they can go for the Arc where even losing would not be the end but winning could be the fast track to retirement. Providing he lost justifiably that is.
And in the Arc I couldn't see Treve, Taghrooda, Iwanhowe, Ectot, Kingston Hill or Gallante beating him and the Japanese horses look a mixed bunch.
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 12:04
yes brigust,many choices for the horse,but AOB will feel more than a little pressured to find the easier race,the Kingman clash makes no practical sense on that score.He may need some time between races,he looked better physically in juddmonte than at any other point this year including yesterday,which would bother me lots.
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 12:07
Not sure headgear would help him?,but probably not?
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 12:11
I'm not sure he will feel pressured because he must know JOB rode a shocker and RM confirmed it in his comments. The question is whether or not he stays in training. If he does they need not do anything but if they are seriously considering retirement then their next move will be crucial.
Free Eagle was 2/5 to beat him last season and he was well beaten so why would AOB risk that positive mark by taking him on again? Plus JOB has looked vulnerable in a tactical race.
The QE11 would not be tactical and neither would the Arc. He only has one horse to beat in the QE11 and it could be argued he ran out of stamina yesterday. The Arc would be a better race to win but would be more difficult.
I would favour the QE11.
By:
A_T
When: 14 Sep 14 12:17
I think there's a good chance he will stay in training as Coolmore are likely to retire another Derby winner to stud this year in ROTW - although I know Qatar are now part-owners of that one so he may not stand in Tipperary.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 12:21
You could be right A_T and I hope you are. ROTW looks to have a right good chance today and then go for either the Arc or the Champion Stakes like last season. Even more reason the QE11 looks a likelihood.
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 12:23
Would love to see him stay in training,a good yardstick with a big rating with much possible improvement to come,but life got a way of letting us downSad
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 12:25
The current crop of UK 2yrlds do not inspire,perhaps this will be taken into account?Happy
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 12:33
Archangel Raphael and Aloft could prove useful for him.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 13:00
Frankie has just said the going in France is good to firm. Perfect for ROTW and Flintshire both I backed in the King George. Looks like get money back time.Wink
By:
Millerracing67
When: 14 Sep 14 13:03
Perfect for ROTW ??
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 13:37
Australia would beat Ectot imo.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 14:00
Kingman likely absentee in QE11. Wink

Come on AOB I have 6s ffs.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 14:10
5/1 that is before I get slaughtered. Wink
By:
metro john
When: 14 Sep 14 15:20
Have lost faith with flintshire,Spiritjim improving if not for banned substances?,keep a eye on Au Revoir could be a little bit better than bare form?
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Sep 14 15:28
Yeehah!!!!
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