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Juddmonte International York

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By:
brigust1
When: 26 Aug 14 13:19
Add to that the Five Group 1 races won by the horses Australia has beaten three were 2 year old races won by Kingston Hill, Toormore and  War Command. And the other two were by Mukhadram (strangely run race) and The Great Gatsby who won in France and the horse he beat was beaten further next time by Western Hymn.
And the Three Group 1 races won by horses Camelot beat were by French Fifteen as a 2 year old and by Power who ran against Camelot in the 2000 Gns and was out the back. Power won a Gr1 in Ireland as a 2 year old and the Irish 2000 Gns.
By:
metro john
When: 26 Aug 14 13:21
The ratings will never stop growingWink
By:
metro john
When: 26 Aug 14 13:29
There are critical points in ratings where the logic makes no sense,they generally occur at 2 years and early in 3 yr old career.The rating allocated to the Hannon sprint 2yrld  superstar of 120 is questionable? when looking at horses he had previously beaten he beat them once again a similar margin in nunthorp.(so do we downgrade the form?)
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Aug 14 13:29
Figgis I am not comparing them to Frankel ffs.

I never said you did

Next year me may have another Frankel

How do you make that out?

This was your explanation

If a smart 2 year old comes along he could easily dominate both the three and four year old divisions without actually being a superstar.


I pointed out that a couple of smart 2yos have already done this year what you said could happen next year, without being called another Frankel.

So this still doesn't explain why a possibly weak year next year means we may have another Frankel.
By:
metro john
When: 26 Aug 14 13:39
I believe the Camelot generation were over rated,and thus it is possible we have over rated this generation,so lots of horses Rated 110+ possibly being kept in training next year?,a few of those will achieve highish rank early in season(improved ratings),so if a star does appear out of this years 2 year olds(whether from Europe or elsewhere)it is always possible we may see another high rating taking place,Once you give a high rating to one exceptional performance,it does generally follow that in future years you may well see a growth in ratings?
By:
metro john
When: 26 Aug 14 13:44
Some said there could never be a Secretariat like performance(still not sure we have seen better),but frankel achieved something like that in the Guineas,Harbinger achieved something like that in the KG,something else will appear in future generations ,and that generation will want to rate it like others.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Aug 14 13:53
Anything is possible, but as it was over 40 years between horses rated higher than 140 I'd say it's big odds against it happening in the very near future.
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Aug 14 14:04
I will leave you in your empty room Figgis. I bring up a perfectly valid set of points and selectively try to find something to be a pain about. Good luck to you.
The difference between your comparisons MJ is that Secretariat beat Sham who was a multiple Grade 1 winner, Harbinger beat four Group 1 winners and the first 6 home in Frankel's Guineas never won a Group 1 between them. Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Aug 14 14:12
the first 6 home in Frankel's Guineas never won a Group 1 between them.

Beating inferior horses by 6 lengths + can be better than beating a proven Gp1 winner by, 1.5 lengths.

I know it's difficult for you to grasp and you have no understanding of handicapping but do tryWink
By:
brigust1
When: 26 Aug 14 14:15
^^That comment just proves you do not have the slightest clue what 'class' is. But I'm not getting drawn into your petty arguments any more so I will get back to the racing.
By:
A_T
When: 26 Aug 14 18:46
Olympic Glory and Toronado were the best 3yo milers last season - Kingman has beaten them both comfortably. He's clearly an exceptional horse. The Guineas form is worthless - as it so often is - even more so this year because of the bizarre way the race unfolded - and in no way represents how Australia might perform against Kingman in the Ascot mile race in October.

There is zero chance of Australia taking on Kingman over a mile - it's just the usual Coolmore hype trying to talk up the horse's speed.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 26 Aug 14 23:43
Excelebration at this time, in his last race as a two year old had won a 7 runner maiden at Newmarket where he beat Pont du Jour whose only win ever was a handicap off 66 from 35 starts. The third horse was Lead Singer whose only win from 25 starts was a maiden at Catterick. Being born at the right time is vital.




i never understand why you knock this horse he was a proper group 1 horse when given cut in the ground it isn't his fault he bumped into probably the best horse that has lived frankel 4 times but still came back for more...admirable horse i'd say and decent quality in his own right
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 14 08:27
I think some of wonder why Excelebration was not campaigned more in races he could win?(or maybe he could not?) Instead they chose to race against a horse they could not beat(must have needed the prize money) on ground that they must have thought fine.
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 14 08:36
brigust

You know I rate(not ratings) Harbingers performance over 12f in KG, the best I have seen in my lifetime,anyone who reads form and looks to see how it works out,must be gobsmacked on video evidence. It was a one off,it was improved,there may have been excuses for some behind,but they all wanted that trip,Workforce won a Derby on quick ground,then having been slaughtered by Harbinger,won the Arc.The race was won 3 furlong out,and they did not go too quick,if they did then Harbinger was more than close enough to the pace.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 09:08
H my point was that at this time of the year when both Frankel and Excelebration were 2 year olds nothing that happened afterwards could have been contemplated. I was trying to compare it to this year where similarly the current 2 year old crop do not look likr classic horses yet something will win the classics.
Add to that with all of this years 'stars' will e retiring at the end of the year and something will win the big races next year at a time when the opposition is obviously going to be significantly weaker because these horses are going to stud. It is therefore possible for a horse to make a big name for himself without running against anything of note. That's all.

MJ I cannot agree about Harbinger, sorry. He just turned up in a race that fell apart for one reason or another. I know I get knocked for looking at collateral form but I think it is important.
My reason for thinking the Harbinger race was a fluke is through Cape Blanco and Workforce. In the Epsom Derby Workforce beat Joshua Tree by 11.5 lengths. In the next race Cape Blanco beat Joshua Tree by 0.5 lengths. That puts Workforce 11 lengths in front of Cape Blanco. Exactly the same distance Harbinger beat Cape Blanco in the King George. Add to that Ryan Moore said he couldn't split them but he couldn't get off the Derby winner. Add to that Workforce won the Derby in course record time so probably still suffered from those exertions.
I don't think you get any credibility by rating a horse as high as Harbinger when there are clear signs it was wrong.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 09:29
In my opinion to rate Harbinger 140 the same as multiple Group 1 winners and multiple classic winners like Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave and a pound behind Mill Reef simply because he won a single Group 1 that fell apart just shows the extent to which Clownform is prepared to go to promote itself.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 10:24
Metro John, he won't rate Harbinger as high as a horse that beat a non stayer in the Guineas, and other horses who previously only beat Baby Turk and Altayan, go figureWink
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Aug 14 10:27
Brigust I am afraid the breed gets less classier year on year with the lack of competitiveness in the breeding market, with small breeders wiped (years ago now) out by the commercial giant that is coolmore(i have said this before)...this will continue until we have a competitive market place which we do not have now... you can blame coolmore for this which i do because they have wiped out many a small breeder or you can live with the fact that from now on in the derby or other key races at the top end of the scale will be won by coolmore sires with no other breed being able to be competitive or classier enough

the lady that has her horses with gosden (normandy)is a great example of a breeder giving it there best shot but you have to listen to her to know she only just about makes ends meet but at least she is producing progeny/families that can go on and at least be competitive in the future...ballymacoll stud had a few this year but have clearly sold most of there good families which is a shame

most breeders i have spoke to say if they don't sell a galileo as an example they will not cover the cost of being sired by him, which is why many have crumpled because if the horse is useless or has poor confirmation, who foots the bill? the breeder does and for small breeders this can wipe them out or force them to sell there mares and who buys them to save the breeder from going out of business (coolmore)
By:
Sandown
When: 27 Aug 14 10:40
OMG. I find myself agreeing with brigust1.Laugh

Harbinger imo was over-rated for that KGQEII win, not just on collateral form but on times too. There was a long debate on here at the time about it. He went into the race with an OR of 123 and was rated 135 OR afterwards, an improvement of 12 lb. His RPR for the race was also 135.

His TS figure was 128 in the race.Even this figure was perhaps too high. There was a handicap over 12f a little later in which Yashrid, rated 82 was deemed to have run a TS of 91. Ignoring for the moment that on my scale, a 91 would equate to 125 for Harbinger,a 91 figure for this horse was 9lb higher than its previous PB and it never achieved that figure afterwards. It finished rated 85 on OR.

Harbinger's performance that day was top notch,even if there were excuses for the beaten horses, and he certainly deserved to be rated somewhere between  130 to 135. But not 140.IMO.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 11:00
Sandown, there are many time figure compilers who would use around 10lbs per sec on fast ground over 12f, so to the likes of us there would be a bigger difference between the handicap and the KG. As for Topspeed figures they have proved on too many occasions that they're out of touch with reality. Didn't they have Toronado with over a stone in hand of Kingman in the Sussex? There can be differences in ratings but that was utter nonsense.

The point I'm making, though, is consistency. Whatever method you choose to rate horses should be the same across the board. Looking back at Dancing Brave's form I can't rate him as highly now as the opinion I had of him earlier. You, however, rate him highly because of his fast sectionals, which is fair enough as you use the same method for all horses. Brigust is crabbing horses because 'A beat B but B only beat C', etc, yet he's rating horses higher form years ago who would also fail under the same methodology.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 11:01
*higher from
By:
Sandown
When: 27 Aug 14 11:12
That's fair enough Figgis.I try not to be too dogmatic but often fail in that regard.You must agree though that a one-off rating ideally needs to be verified with another comparable performance but, alas, we didn't get that with Harbinger.
By:
alleged22
When: 27 Aug 14 11:13
OMG. I find myself agreeing with brigust1

same here Happy
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 11:25
Sandown, I obviously have a bias, as I put up a very strong opinion on here of Harbinger before the KG. I had a big bet and I expected him to win. I thought he'd win comfortably but obviously I didn't expect him to win that easily. Of course he won so easily because the rest ran below form to varying degrees, but I would say the same is nearly always true for any wide margin winner in a Gp1, it is generally the result of a top performance by the winner and the others being a bit below par. I believe most handicappers are more aware of this now whereas in the past it seems to me that for a lot of those races the form was taken literally.

I have no problem at all with people who question the form and his rating. As you say, we never got a chance to see him replicate it afterwards and maybe I just got lucky. I do think that, on the whole, ratings are far too stretched. In my view a lot of horses in the past who were supposed to have run high 130s figures didn't really do anything more than low 130s horses.

As I said, though, it's the inconsistency that bugs me.
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 14 11:43
I was not a fan of Harbinger at the time,for weeks after the race my opinion twisted on the race,but after long reflection,it's impossible to fault unless Mr Stoute speaks up and tells us otherwise? yes many wanted softer ground,but Workforce does not fit into that bracket(even if winning the Ark on softer ground), Harbinger himself never had the chance to prove it all wrong?, but i ask you to price up the Arc after the KG,and be honest do you really think Workforce would have beat him on any ground?
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 14 11:46
What really bugs me most,is that people are willing to pull apart a KG over 12f but unwilling to pull apart the 8-10f races,where a unbelievable amount of horses seem to be given improved ratings for being beat?
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 12:21
MJ I think Stoute and Moore would disagree. In my opinion there should be nothing between them so if Workforce is 132 then Harbinger should be the same. Nothing wrong with that.
The same with CDA, Farhh and St Nicholas Abbey. On form when they met there was absolutely nothing between them yet Clownform have them 7lbs apart. When they priced up the Coronation Cup before St Nic was injured they had him down as favourite to beat CDA. Some say CDA isn't the same horse yet Farhh only just managed to beat him in the Champion Stakes. Plus Ruler of the World should be rated the same as Farhh and CDA.
What has happened is the growth of restricted races and fillies/mares only races specifically for the breeders.

And Figgis if you think a true comparison is to only use immediate and recent races that is too more ridiculous for words. I am not saying the past is best but I am not saying it is worst either. You seem to think only you should have a voice anything that happened before you time is naturally worse. The fact that I can put forward a coherent argument for past generations should be a good thing as a reference. But because there is a chance it goes against your opinion it is obviously wrong. Absolutely crazy idea.   

I think Frankel was a great horse who, through no fault of his own, was born at a time when the opposition was weak. To rate other horses better than their actual worth simply to prove Frankel was great has been and will be completely counter productive. It means horses going to stud as being better than they are will be weakening the gene pool. Then if, as expected, these stallions 'regress to the mean' the pool will be further weakened. This is not the way forward. This isn't new and has been addressed many times but to produce a betting product the quality of the horses has and will continue to suffer.
By:
grendel
When: 27 Aug 14 12:29
I think Frankel was a great horse who, through no fault of his own, was born at a time when the opposition was weak

Absolute rubbish, the classic generation of 2011 was an extremely vintage crop and the best of the last decade
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 12:31
I am not saying the past is best

You've said this more than once. Saying the breed has declined, as you have, can only mean the past is best.

You seem to think only you should have a voice anything that happened before you time is naturally worse

It's not me that keeps voicing up and putting down other people's opinions. Your latest one being that anyone who rates Australia and Kingman highly are "easily pleased" and it is "bollox". I don't rate them particularly highly myself but others are entitled to if that's how they see it. For your information, Dancing Brave was within my time.

The fact that I can put forward a coherent argument for past generations should be a good thing as a reference.

The fact is that you put up a completely different argument for past generations.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 12:37
Grendel it isn't. What you are asking people to believe is that CDA suddenly improved after 40+ runs to start winning Gr1 races after numbers of defeats. Plus the trainer and connections of Excelebration had no idea how good he was as a three year old by running him in Germany. Plus the trainer of Farhh had no idea how good he was by running him in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Plus the trainer and connections had no idea how good Danedream was and she was beaten numerous times before winning a Gr1 in Germany. These were the leading players who beat the generation you are talking about. I can accept one being wrong but all of them is too much of a coincidence and does not fit in with reality. What does is that the generation you are talking about was poor and ended up being beaten up by a horse who ran 40 times before winning a Group 1, a Thirsk Hunt Cup winner, a German 2000 Gns winner and a German Oaks winner. Yeh, right.
By:
grendel
When: 27 Aug 14 12:48
I would attempt to reply but we've been here too many times before and it's clear that you can't reason with ignorance
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 15:01
^^Typical. Absolutely typical. And lets not forget the best older horse at the time came from Australia ffs. And he couldn't win a race outside the UK.
By:
A_T
When: 27 Aug 14 18:02
Frankel's year was an exceptional one. Nearly all the top all-age races in Europe in 2011 and 2012 were won by 2011's 3yos. "came from Australia" - what's that got to do with anything typical brigust piece of nonsense.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 18:13
A_T considering how bad Camelot's year was what on earth do you think would happen? Of course they won everything what else could? And my point about Australia was that Oz middle distance horses are nowhere near as good as ours normally.
Why is it when someone puts forward a perfectly valid case he is talking nonsense or ignorant. Are you that insecure?
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 18:28
And lets not forget the best older horse at the time came from Australia ffs.

Sounds more like a scoff than a perfect valid case.

And my point about Australia was that Oz middle distance horses are nowhere near as good as ours normally

So the point being is that Australian middle distance horses are normally better than ours. Which somehow leads to a ffs, which seems to strongly imply that because they're normally not as good as ours they can't ever be as good. Which most definitely is bollocks. If that wasn't the point then it wasn't really much of a point, and was in fact pointlessWink
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 14 18:28
*aren't normally better
By:
A_T
When: 27 Aug 14 19:26
And my point about Australia was that Oz middle distance horses are nowhere near as good as ours normally.

So what? The merits of an individual horse have nothing to do with any other. Most Italian horses aren't up to much does that mean Ribot was no good? Honestly brig you are probably a really nice bloke but 90% of what you post is utter tripe.
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Aug 14 19:42
Comparing unbeaten Ribot who won the King George and 2 Arcs with So You Think and I'm the one who talks utter tripe. Will you listen to yourself?
I'm sorry A_T but you are living in denial. And you too sound like a perfectly decent bloke so I will just leave it at that. All of the clues are there if you want to see them.
By:
metro john
When: 27 Aug 14 22:18
Variables? we can never give nothing but our own opinion,the chaos taking place in front of our eyes is open to many variables,Track,ground conditions,and how the individual was trained or what sickness,injury may have impacted performance,so in truth a wide margin winner does not perhaps signify greatness, but possible weakness in opposition,I believe this is the point brigust makes,and I do agree,but we will always remember those moments of what we perceive perfect ArtLove
By:
alleged22
When: 27 Aug 14 22:32
it is defo one of the stand out memories that's for sure MJ
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