Just a reminder of part of the discussion earlier in July. Not crowing  (I've already lost A/P in the Derby) but I did warn that far from being good value he was terrible value for the Arc.Unfortunately, I didn't lay him, as I should have done, purely because of the money that would have been tied up, so nothing gained from being proven right to be wary.




Sandown 24 Jul 13 14:41 
Figgis

There are 2 bets here, a double. One to make the race and one to win it if he runs. He's only 7/4 to make the gig, which is what you will be getting if you back him at 16/1 and he is 6/1 on the day. I backed him at big prices for the Derby and looked what happened there. Why can't it happen twice? If he appears in a competitive race next time up against G1 horses, 7/4 might be an OK price then. Back him at 16/1 to trade out afterwards at say 8.5 would be the same as evens on the day. No, to my mind this is about prices, pure and simple, not his potential.
Figgis 24 Jul 13 14:23 
Sandown

I've not backed Telescope for the Arc as I don't know how many races he'll be taking in beforehand and what sort of shape he'll be in on the day. I have no interest in making a book on a race and I don't generally go in for trading. If I did play that way, though, I just can't see how his current price isn't anything but value. In my view he's pretty much nailed on to win whichever Gp1 Stoute aims him at in the near future, which is where I'll be trying to profit on him. For me, on that Leicester win he would've been a good standard of Derby winner. Although that doesn't mean he necessarily would've been if he'd made the race, as I think the extra patience Stoute has shown has helped him develop, I doubt he'd have received the same patience in a yard of somebody like Johnston.

What can beat him at York or Leopardstown? The 4yos are a pretty moderate bunch this year.
Sandown 24 Jul 13 14:10 
Yet to prove he is G1 class - though I think it is probable that he is

Yet to prove that 12f is his trip - though I think it maybe

Yet to meet older horses of G1 class

Yet to be publicly stated by connections that the Arc IS his target for this year

Yet to race on soft ground - although with this summer probably unlikely, but you never know

Unless he wins his next race(s) - which should be  Group class - is he likely to be less than say 6/1 on the day given the likely competition of Orfevre, Treve, Flintshire,Intello, Al Kazeem for starters?

All of which adds up to 7/4 he gets there on the day.

Not much of a value bet for me I'm afraid
go-all-in 24 Jul 13 13:53 
Yeah I'v took some of the 16s for the arc too.



Telescope is proving to be the books Horse of the Year. Who would want to back him before the day if he is to run in the Champion? Will he finally come good? Would need 16/1 to b with him on the day or double figs at least.

Not quite that good, harry