Telescope 10/1 For Arc After Solo Spin Round Leicester Racecourse

totally concur with your arc views figgis....in regards to quality of the winner...for me sea the stars and dylan thomas were way over the top come the race but class got them through against poor opposition but still achieved a rating way above what they were capable of earlier in the season imo like you say its how you intrepid the form it certainly gives you angles moving on as people overrate the race every year...

can't say what i make of telescope yet as need a form line as is my want, he looks potentially decent his next run will tell us more...

can't say i have looked at the arc but intello has looked the best horse i have seen this season in the 3 year old middle distance division...i wouldn't want to back him on longchamp winter ground however... on good ground he will be right on my radar as is all class imo

arc along way off trying to get to the bottom of the george

Figgis, what figure did you award Telescope at Leicester?

Ped

I use a much lower scale, just because I prefer it that way, so it's a bit difficult to put it precisely into the official scale. Then there's also a difference between the Timeform scale and the official one. I've thought of using a similar scale to theirs but there's not much point as I don't really agree with the historical context of some of their ratings, I always think a lot of the higher ratings are too high. All I can say is I'd have him amongst the better Derby winners, if I was using a higher scale it would probably about 130.

Figgis I hope all is well. Good to see you on this thread in top form as always my friend

I won't take the thread off track but sad news yesterday re an old friend of mine and yours ...... SNA.

Take it easy mate and stay in touch.

Yes, very sad news, SOF, hopefully he'll come through the surgery well and have a good stud career.

All I can say is I'd have him amongst the better Derby winners, if I was using a higher scale it would probably about 130.

can understand your confidence in Telescope given that type of figure, Figgis.

Fwiw, had him well below that type of level. But given the middle distance division in GB / Ireland looks very ordinary, could still be a player in the Group 1 contests this autumn.

The French are another matter though, Intello and Treve (whilst Flintshire could still be anything, but not on figures earned to date) look to be the outstanding pair for 10f upwards for me.

I have Intello and Treve (with her 3lb allowance) on the same mark with Telescope 2lbs ahead of them. I still can't get a proper handle on Flintshire. A lot will depend on who (if any) makes the most progress between now and October. Preparation will also be crucial, as at least one or two of them will have hard races between now and then. This is where I think luck also plays a big part, some horses get lucky and their interim races are slowly run or the opposition aren't up to much or don't fire on the day, so not too much energy gets expended. Whereas others end up putting up big performances before the Arc and aren't quite at their peak on the big day.

I think Fabre is of the same mind as Cecil (and Murless who I believe advised Cecil on this matter)and that it is only possible to peak a horse for a massive performance once a season. I've also read other trainers who say that if you divide a season into thirds you can only get a horse to run at top form in two of those thirds. Given the importance of the end of the year on the Flat for the big races it might explain why Fabres Arc horses invariably take the Summer off.

Yes, I agree with that, although using my own figures I'd say it's often possible to get a horse to reach its peak twice in a season, as long as the first one wasn't too hard fought. I'm sure that's why it's so difficult to win the King George and Arc in the same year. It's not that the winners of the KG aren't good enough it's the problem of getting them in the same form in October.

Herbert: Moore says stick to 10f - he's got plenty of speed. International?

Juddmonte looks the likeliest target it seems which to me shows how much they think of the horse. Perhaps the Arc could be under consideration this season.

They mentioned the G3 Rose of Lancaster at Haydock too. Wouldn't be surprised if he went there.

^ hope so for selfish reasons, I can go and see him there.

Telescope is the type of horse bookies like.  They will price him up for as many races antepost as the can manage.

Goes to Haydock on Saturday. The logical next step. Too big a jump from a conditions race to the Juddmonte. Will they take in both races? Probably not, we'll see.

Disappointing from a punting point of view. I've always believed if a horse is good enough it doesn't need to graduate step by step up the ladder. I mean if a horse can go from only 2 runs (1 run in a couple of cases) and handle the hustle and bustle of that race then why does it need to be handled cautiously before any other Gp1?

* from 2 runs to winning the Derby

I've also seen occasions when a horse has shown Gp1 form in lesser races but done a bit too much in winning them, then by the time the horse is finally stepped up to a Gp1 it's already left its form behind.

I'm just glad to see him out again and excellent for those going to Haydock. It'll be disappointing if it's a small field though

Think there are 17 or so entered at the moment though some with multiple entries. Maputo is also entered to run in Ireland.

Stevie, if he wins head in chest (very unlikely in such a competitive race even for a Gp1 horse unless it's slowly run) then no damage done. If, however, he's ridden out and runs as fast as at Leicester then it's more petrol from the tank.

I know what you mean figgis, had he produced the leicester time performance in say the dante then he'd have won easy and no one would be thinking about races like this one on saturday.

Far be it from me to be giving SMS advice, Stevie . He doesn't always get it right, though, I always thought the chance of another big race for Workforce was squandered when he won the Brigadier Gerard conceding weight to Poet, who was pretty good when he had his ground. It was a big effort from Workforce that day.

8/11 for tomorrows race.

That's pretty much what I was expecting

No course form, no class form, no distance form, and from what I can see, horses he has beaten have won mainly maidens and class2 race at best.

A few in the field are already proven in the class and better, and over the distance. Got to be a lay at 4/6.

Figgis, the problem with your 'Derby' argument is that every other horse is in the same situation. The overwhelming majority of group 1 races for older horses are won by horses accustomed to the rigours of group 1 racing. Stepping up from group 2 is hard enough. How many horses have won a top group 1 (for older horses) after prepping in a conditions race? Remember Kalaman?

Be disappointed if he doesn't win easy but I think he will.

Can't deny that Telescope  and he is certainly the most exciting horse in the field at Haydock today  and is the most likely winner, but a price of 1.63 assumes for me that he has at least 14lbs in hand today. Whilst he might have, at that price he can't be a bet.

after wfa on my figures I have him on 125 and then City Style 110 and Noble Mission and Quick Wit 106. that makes him a 1.15 chance on my program. So it's a decent sized bet for me today.

Howellsy, I've never bought the argument that a horse needs to be in some way "acclimatised" before taking on other Gp1 horses. There are many weak Gp3/Gp2 races, it is the quality of the performance, not the name of the race that counts. In my view, it cannot be compared to something like a boxing match, where experience counts. If one horse has more gears/speed than the opposition, then the only obstacles are jockeyship, pace of race, conditions, etc.

I remember Kalaman but not sure of the relevance? He was never that good.

Stevie

87% win chance there - that's very strong. Hope you're right

don't worry sandown it's still quite a small percentage of my bank I'm betting with. If I was doing kelly staking however I'd be feeling sick now.

I won't be betting but you have to hope he wins impressively, the game needs an exciting GB trained middle distance colt for the rest of this season and next.

Was going to go and see him but too much other stuff going on today.

If he does it properly I wonder if they might be tempted by the Juddmonte, despite my protestations earlier on the thread, that race is beginning to look like it will cut up.

I look at the field and think who is going to beat Al Kazeem?, s'pose there is a case for Trading Leather and/or Magician but the two unexposed colts Kingsbarns and Telescope look the biggest threats and it will surely come too soon for the former.

Trading Leather has had some hard outings and Magician is good at finding different ways to not win races.

Hype - themost expensive word in racing,

all round disappointing - back to the drawing board, if there is a drawing board.

yes very disappointing, my speed figures must have over rated him by a huge amount or he didn't run to form today. could be a bit of both

Could have bounced imo.

just looked a bit like he was hanging left going around the first bend, I know it sounds like looking for excuses but the way he's been campaigned indicate he's probably not been easy to train.

I would n't write him off just yet but clearly talk of G1s is fanciful at this stage.

On top of Cirrus des Aigles, further proof, if any required, that the most likely winner strategy, epecially if odds on, is not a certain route to profit.

the result of 2 races doesn't prove anything, it's the long term that counts. However if you backed Telescope thinking he had 5lb  in hand then it was a terrible bet. all depends on how good you thought he was.

He went off a silly price, thankfully too short for me, but still obviously very disappointing as I had him pegged as a Gp1 horse. The Leicester time could've been skewed by wind influence, although the report said almost nil wind. The other 2 races that day on the round course weren't that slowly run as to make Telescope's time appear as good as it did. They did go a slow pace today, the time was over a second slower than the handicap, whose winner carried 8lbs more.

He ran a perfectly adequate race against some seasoned Group performers. Not his fault he was ridiculously overhyped.

the time was a second slower than the hcap today. I think moore should have made the running and made use of that weight for age. He was a little keen early as well

You know this could work out well for you Figgis as you might get a nice price on Telescope in the future now. I'm quite happy to keep my leicester figure as it is for now and just over look this blip.

Dunno what to make of it really, Stevie, there can be anomalies with times, especially with small fields, maybe this was one? Some people will no doubt say times are useless blah blah, as though any alternative method that ignores times is fool-proof. I'm not one to fall for hype, but when a trainer I respect as much as Stoute thinks he has a Gp1 horse and it records a time to back up the opinion then I'm inclined to think it is. Maybe he had an off day, or maybe he's temporarily regressed from the Leicester run. Whatever the reason, even though there is enough consistency in the game to make it worth trying to solve, there's still an element of inconsistency, they're only racehorses after all, which is why I don't like backing too short.

Still like this horse. Definitely hung around the bend and into straight. Maybe he felt like he did when he did that gallop at Lingfield. Anyway, still a step forwards from his last race and I suspect he'll be better next year. Im not writing him at all. Hope everyone else does.

*writing him off

Well he looked a relentless galloper at Leicester, today they've gone steady and he's been keen early. Give this horse a truly run 12f and I think we'll see how good he really is.

As for backing shorties well i've been doing this full time for 7 years and every time I seem to back one at odds on they seem to lose and I hardly ever do any that short but I thought I'd load up the program and see what it said. Most of the time I just use my instincts on bigger priced horses.

Like most people i was taken in by the  performance of  Telescope LTO   , but  it is now clear that the  winning distance at Leicester  was misleading , the reason for that i think,  is  the  second Horse gave up  chasing  hard as soon as Telescope was fully on top    , he was able to  stop  chasing hard as the third Horse was   far enough behind to allow  for the a virtual  capitulation  without risk of loosing  his place ,   had there been other Horses in the race  that could have challenged for second  placing in an effective way  ,   then the second  would not have given up  the  chase so readily     imo ,  Telescope  is a good Horse   but clearly no  Superstar  yet. There is  still hope he might be  a very good sort , time will tell

Not the result you would wan't to see but I think he has more to his game than that. We can talk about hype, better opposition or what he's actually achieved but he just didn't run fast today and looked flat to me. He's a talented horse and has shown glimpses of it but he needs to get back on track. Any thoughts on where next? You'd be hopeful of a decent price next time but due to the media for some unknown reason constantly ramping him up it doesn't seem all that likely.

I think it was a big ask today and he acquitted himself well. He will go on from this I'm sure of that. These were knocking on Gr2 performers many with lots of battle hardened experience. The winner won the race this side in the Hunt Cup and the 2nd has some good form. There were also some decent performers behind him. I think he is going places and looks sure to stay 12f with the aim of staying in training next year.

well I don't think you could possibly go for a Group 1 after that performance so I'd probably go something like the september stakes at Kempton on the a/w. Stoute has won that before with Modun.

or the g3 arc trial race at Newbury over 11f

Harry Herbert's comments on RP site hint slightly at putting him away for next year but also acknowledge that what happens next will be Stoute's call.

Great Voltigeur next now - have to say I'm perplexed by the lack of an entry in St Leger.

SMS has probably forgotten more about horses than I'll ever know but it feels like they're guessing a bit.

excellent news rease, good to see they say he's come out of race well. York will hopefully tell us more about the horse.

On his Haydock run he'd be very beatable in either race and at the risk of giving myself a kicking I'll be leaving him alone. With him not running to my expectation I think it would be foolish to be dogmatic about the Leicester win, a 3 horse race which possibly fell apart completely, even though the time appeared very good on the face of it. I'm going along with the view we probably won't see the best of him until next year.

Is Telescope the new Killer Instinct?

Don't think that one ever really impressed anybody on an actual racecourse, kincsem, think he was just a gallops star. Maybe he's the new Harbinger, who some also dismissed as a hype horse as a 3yo?

4yo harbinger kg   stoute had the fav 1/1  workforce (derby winner) ....harbinger goes 2/1 for arc straight after KG but never ran again.....and low and behold workforce wins arc at a tasty price ....stoute never seems to get any stick but is a hard stable to get a handle on ....seems to get an easy ride imo

When will the Newmarket Nine be revealed ....is that on a 50 year rule ?

Not sure what your point is Bread&Butter. Harbinger was injured on the gallops after the KG. And as for Workforce, he is not the first horse to be beaten in the KG and then go and win the Arc later on.

Reckon Tele will run in the Volitgeur next week?

How many 3yo have been beaten in the KG by the same stables older second string ?

how many stables have had a 123 in the KG and when asked how they work on the gallops ,the reply of "they never work together " is
accepted unquestionably as gospel ?   Would a certain Scottish trainer get away with said antics ? would Godolphin have got away with having the derby winner turned over in the KG by one of their older horses ...NO but they would not have ran it

anyway nowt against stoute but just feel at times its certain peeps that get the heat and others sit happily in the shade .

as for TELE    dont really care ,,,as i said the winter derby fav should now run in the winter derby

going try and get a price on the champion hurdle /chester cup double

A disappointing field for the Great Voltigeur and possibly a tactical affair as well unless Ryan goes out and tries to make all on Telescope.

bit short is n't he?

Cap O' Rushes got some decent form and Foundry arguably as much untapped potential as Telescope. Willie The Whipper's form not too bad either but ground looks like going against him.

Think I'll watch - if Telescope wins well, they have to supplement for the Leger surely? No idea what the thinking was around taking him out in the first place.

yes 6/4 does not tempt me even though my Leicester speed figure puts him 12lb clear of this field. I now have a big ? against that figure and if he doesn't win easily and there's no excuses then I'm going to have to go back and look into why my figure was wrong.

how do you arrive at your figures stevie. you can answer in a vague way, i don't mind, just generally interested. there is a good pundit on william hill radio called andy holding who also does his own speed figures. and how important to your betting are they?

Pulio,
First of all you need to have a standard time for each distance, you could use ones already out there but I prefer to use my own.
Now my standards are for a what a 120 horse on my ratings could achieve on good ground carrying 9st.
Next I would be looking at a horses best previous speed figure and converting this to 9st, so if a horses best previous figure was 90 and he was carrying 10st today then that would be 76 and therefore 44 behind my standard horse. So if this was a 10 furlong race i would then divide this 44 by around 13 pounds per second which would be 3.38 secs and if the horse had run the race 1 sec quicker than standard then that would be 4.38s. So your going allowance in seconds per furlong would be -0.438 or if you prefer to multiply by a percentage then you might want to multiply your standard by 0.946.

Or you could use a weight correction, so in above example being 1 sec quicker than standard you'd multiply that by 13 add on to 120 and add on 14 which would give you 147 so the weight correction would be 57 to take him back to 90.

Whichever method you use you can do that for  race on the card and then I would start off with the minimum allowance needed to push each horse back to his best previous rating and then work from there. Or pick the race you think was most likely to have run to previous figure.

Of course you might need a different allowance for the straight course and the round course.
For example at Thirsk yesterday' there was a 15mph wind behind runners up the straight so the allowance was faster on the straight than the round course and the ground was drying out so I also changed allowance for last race on card to the next allowance down. So I went from 0.988 on earlier sprint races down to 0.984 for last race. in secs per furlongs that would be -0.15 down to -0.20 or a 7lb weight correction.

You might want to also check some sectionals first to give you a good idea which races on the card were steadily run and which were truly run
as it could be there were no truly run races on the card although there is normally 1 or 2 at least.

Anyway that's the way I do them but there are other ways I'm sure. Probably you are best off reading some books on it pulio.

can you recommend any books on it mate. interesting stuff and i suppose it's one more factor that would speak in the horses favour and strengthen your opinion on the race

I think Figgis might be the men to ask Pulio as I think he has read most of the books but I would think books like Beyer on Speed and Mordin on Time perhaps. If you are interested in pounds per second and pounds per length calculations then I thought the Bioenergetics and race horse ratings book was a good one.

It's difficult because there isn't much out there. Most of them are American books so are obviously geared to their own racing. I've read 'time' books by Len Ragozin, Cary Fotias and Joe Cardello that make valid points. There are others by Tom Hambleton, Charles Carroll and Tom Brohamer but personally I'm not a fan of those. If you're after a more nuts and bolts description of methods I think there are only the Mordin and Beyer books that Stevie refers to. The trouble with those is they're concerned with handicapping on lengths instead of pounds and using very basic devices like class pars, which will lead you in the wrong direction, imo. The best advice is to read them but not take them as gospel, weed out the garbage. Whether you entirely agree with them or not, at least Mordin and Beyer books are an interesting read, most racing books are a snoozefest.

I've backed Telscope today at 7/4. He was too short to back last time out, but today with the extra distance in his favour I will bet him. Recent winner for Stoute in the race was Sea Moon, fwiw.

I think I shall leave this one until they're in-running sint. I'd like him settled nicely and a good pace.

I've left it alone as well. He'd win easy if his Leicester run was as good as it seemed but based on the Haydock run I have him 1lb behind Cap O'Rushes, with a few other potential improvers not far behind him.

O'Brien horse is the fly in the ointment here - not enough evidence to have any idea how good he is.

If the O'Brien horse was any good, he'd be sub 6/4 here imo

Telescope ran slower figure than Robins Hood Bay on same day at Haydock, significantly behind his Leicester run. He is proving to be in and out taking his public workout into account. Couldn't possibly back him today at 2.4.

well better than haydock but I don't think he's anything special yet

even more dumbfounded that they took him out of the Leger.

agreed looks more a leger horse, can't see him having the speed for an arc

Well done sint.

Stan J 16/1 for the Arc - must be having a laugh

yes well done sint

Cheers.

Only Soft ground would see him win an Arc. They need to supplement him for the Leger imo.

yep, well done sint

Foundry looks worth keeping an eye on too.

Thought he ran v well today & I was v taken by Foundry's run. Along with Kingsbarns he could turn out to be one of AOB's better middle distance horses next season. Telescope was very keen today I'm not sure the Leger will suit on that evidence?

Not a great speed figure for him today but the early pace was quite steady and he again was keen so I think it was better than I first thought.

"He is no world-beater but is decent."

Ryan Moore's assessment

A solid performance 2day & could turn out to be a smart horse (prob at 4) Still learning his trade & needs to settle better, which he will in time. He could not be in better hands for next year.

Ignoring the Leicester win, he's looked much the same horse on his last two starts, so the question is has he run below the Leicester form since or did I get it wrong about the win. I've read elsewhere the theory he may have 'bounced' after Leicester but in this instance I think I just got it wrong. I've often argued that one race time (sometimes more) can be out of step with the rest of the card for no obvious reason and this was probably the case here. Also races with few runners are easier to get wrong, it only takes one or two runners to underperform and the winner looks far better than it really is, probably a bigger field that day would've showed it wasn't quite as good as I thought.

This is all with the benefit of hindsight, but watching the video I didn't get that sense of power I normally associate when witnessing a 130+ performance against inferior opposition. It was there when Harbinger won the Hardwicke and was there when Farhh won the Lockinge. I really should've taken more notice of that instead of getting carried away with the seemingly good time. Fortunately on this occasion I didn't lose any cash over the error. The original poster, differentdrum, was right, I was wrong. I see Telescope is still being considered for the Arc but think it's highly unlikely he could improve enough at this stage, maybe as a 4yo? Cue Telescope to go and romp the Arc

What about your standards Figgis, could they be out.
I have noticed the racing post a few years ago had 2m 30.2 for the 12f time but they have since changed this to 2m 29.5 whilst keeping the 10f one the same.
Now when I started compiling my own standards, the quickest way I found to do them was to go back through a few years of races and rate the races using my own pounds per second allowance on RP standards until I find anomalies and then I changed the standards until I felt they were accurate.
Anyway I wasn't thorough enough with the Leicester ones and have since gone back through a few more years and I have found that whilst the change they made with the 12f time fitted more often in line with the straight track times, the 10f one also needed  reducing by half a second.
Anyway it means I now have Telescope around 6/7lb lower for his Leicester win.
Really I should have looked into this straight after rating the race.
It was still a decent time performance but just not the G1 performance figure I originally had.

It's possible, Stevie, but I don't think so, as the vast majority of results fit, I've never noticed a problem before and looking back I still can't see any reason to change them. I have a few distances at different courses with question marks over the standards but Leicester isn't one of them. Actually it's a course where I've noticed the 5f2y and 5f218y times in particular can get skewed by wind interference. I think there's a danger of altering standards just so they fit the bigger performances. Which is one of the reasons I don't think it's possible to only concentrate on the bigger meetings when analysing times, the standards won't be accurate unless you use all classes of racing when compiling them. I think it was probably just one of those races I've talked about before, that appears better than it is by using strict direct comparisons. The fact that there were only 3 runners, one of which almost certainly ran below par, just made it less obvious at the time.

yes could be figgis.
and yes I've noticed it is quite a wind affected track. Also it looks pretty sharp downhill for first furlong of 7f races. I wonder if jockeys often don't go fast enough for that first furlong sometimes.

Just a reminder of part of the discussion earlier in July. Not crowing  (I've already lost A/P in the Derby) but I did warn that far from being good value he was terrible value for the Arc.Unfortunately, I didn't lay him, as I should have done, purely because of the money that would have been tied up, so nothing gained from being proven right to be wary.




Sandown 24 Jul 13 14:41 
Figgis

There are 2 bets here, a double. One to make the race and one to win it if he runs. He's only 7/4 to make the gig, which is what you will be getting if you back him at 16/1 and he is 6/1 on the day. I backed him at big prices for the Derby and looked what happened there. Why can't it happen twice? If he appears in a competitive race next time up against G1 horses, 7/4 might be an OK price then. Back him at 16/1 to trade out afterwards at say 8.5 would be the same as evens on the day. No, to my mind this is about prices, pure and simple, not his potential.
Figgis 24 Jul 13 14:23 
Sandown

I've not backed Telescope for the Arc as I don't know how many races he'll be taking in beforehand and what sort of shape he'll be in on the day. I have no interest in making a book on a race and I don't generally go in for trading. If I did play that way, though, I just can't see how his current price isn't anything but value. In my view he's pretty much nailed on to win whichever Gp1 Stoute aims him at in the near future, which is where I'll be trying to profit on him. For me, on that Leicester win he would've been a good standard of Derby winner. Although that doesn't mean he necessarily would've been if he'd made the race, as I think the extra patience Stoute has shown has helped him develop, I doubt he'd have received the same patience in a yard of somebody like Johnston.

What can beat him at York or Leopardstown? The 4yos are a pretty moderate bunch this year.
Sandown 24 Jul 13 14:10 
Yet to prove he is G1 class - though I think it is probable that he is

Yet to prove that 12f is his trip - though I think it maybe

Yet to meet older horses of G1 class

Yet to be publicly stated by connections that the Arc IS his target for this year

Yet to race on soft ground - although with this summer probably unlikely, but you never know

Unless he wins his next race(s) - which should be  Group class - is he likely to be less than say 6/1 on the day given the likely competition of Orfevre, Treve, Flintshire,Intello, Al Kazeem for starters?

All of which adds up to 7/4 he gets there on the day.

Not much of a value bet for me I'm afraid
go-all-in 24 Jul 13 13:53 
Yeah I'v took some of the 16s for the arc too.



Telescope is proving to be the books Horse of the Year. Who would want to back him before the day if he is to run in the Champion? Will he finally come good? Would need 16/1 to b with him on the day or double figs at least.

Out for the season now, chipped bone in the knee. A shame, was looking forward to seeing him in the Champion Stakes. Will be a top horse next season, one for TTF lists.

well where did that come from...not much of a field but a real demolition job...clearly a stoute improver harbinger style

Not quite that good, harry

Clearly had a few setbacks along the way but always nice to see a horse starting to fulfil his potential. King George next?