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Telescope 10/1 For Arc After Solo Spin Round Leicester Racecourse
Telescope 10/1 For Arc After Solo Spin Round Leicester Racecourse
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Goes to Haydock on Saturday. The logical next step. Too big a jump from a conditions race to the Juddmonte. Will they take in both races? Probably not, we'll see.
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Disappointing from a punting point of view. I've always believed if a horse is good enough it doesn't need to graduate step by step up the ladder. I mean if a horse can go from only 2 runs (1 run in a couple of cases) and handle the hustle and bustle of that race then why does it need to be handled cautiously before any other Gp1?
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* from 2 runs to winning the Derby
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I've also seen occasions when a horse has shown Gp1 form in lesser races but done a bit too much in winning them, then by the time the horse is finally stepped up to a Gp1 it's already left its form behind.
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I'm just glad to see him out again and excellent for those going to Haydock. It'll be disappointing if it's a small field though
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Think there are 17 or so entered at the moment though some with multiple entries. Maputo is also entered to run in Ireland.
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Stevie, if he wins head in chest (very unlikely in such a competitive race even for a Gp1 horse unless it's slowly run) then no damage done. If, however, he's ridden out and runs as fast as at Leicester then it's more petrol from the tank.
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I know what you mean figgis, had he produced the leicester time performance in say the dante then he'd have won easy and no one would be thinking about races like this one on saturday.
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Far be it from me to be giving SMS advice, Stevie
 . He doesn't always get it right, though, I always thought the chance of another big race for Workforce was squandered when he won the Brigadier Gerard conceding weight to Poet, who was pretty good when he had his ground. It was a big effort from Workforce that day. |
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8/11 for tomorrows race.
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That's pretty much what I was expecting
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No course form, no class form, no distance form, and from what I can see, horses he has beaten have won mainly maidens and class2 race at best.
A few in the field are already proven in the class and better, and over the distance. Got to be a lay at 4/6. |
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Figgis, the problem with your 'Derby' argument is that every other horse is in the same situation. The overwhelming majority of group 1 races for older horses are won by horses accustomed to the rigours of group 1 racing. Stepping up from group 2 is hard enough. How many horses have won a top group 1 (for older horses) after prepping in a conditions race? Remember Kalaman?
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Be disappointed if he doesn't win easy but I think he will.
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Can't deny that Telescope and he is certainly the most exciting horse in the field at Haydock today and is the most likely winner, but a price of 1.63 assumes for me that he has at least 14lbs in hand today. Whilst he might have, at that price he can't be a bet.
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after wfa on my figures I have him on 125 and then City Style 110 and Noble Mission and Quick Wit 106. that makes him a 1.15 chance on my program. So it's a decent sized bet for me today.
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Howellsy, I've never bought the argument that a horse needs to be in some way "acclimatised" before taking on other Gp1 horses. There are many weak Gp3/Gp2 races, it is the quality of the performance, not the name of the race that counts. In my view, it cannot be compared to something like a boxing match, where experience counts. If one horse has more gears/speed than the opposition, then the only obstacles are jockeyship, pace of race, conditions, etc.
I remember Kalaman but not sure of the relevance? He was never that good. |
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Stevie
87% win chance there - that's very strong. Hope you're right  |
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don't worry sandown it's still quite a small percentage of my bank I'm betting with. If I was doing kelly staking however I'd be feeling sick now.
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I won't be betting but you have to hope he wins impressively, the game needs an exciting GB trained middle distance colt for the rest of this season and next.
Was going to go and see him but too much other stuff going on today. If he does it properly I wonder if they might be tempted by the Juddmonte, despite my protestations earlier on the thread, that race is beginning to look like it will cut up. I look at the field and think who is going to beat Al Kazeem?, s'pose there is a case for Trading Leather and/or Magician but the two unexposed colts Kingsbarns and Telescope look the biggest threats and it will surely come too soon for the former. Trading Leather has had some hard outings and Magician is good at finding different ways to not win races. |
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Hype - themost expensive word in racing,
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all round disappointing - back to the drawing board, if there is a drawing board.
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yes very disappointing, my speed figures must have over rated him by a huge amount or he didn't run to form today. could be a bit of both
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Could have bounced imo.
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just looked a bit like he was hanging left going around the first bend, I know it sounds like looking for excuses but the way he's been campaigned indicate he's probably not been easy to train.
I would n't write him off just yet but clearly talk of G1s is fanciful at this stage. |
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On top of Cirrus des Aigles, further proof, if any required, that the most likely winner strategy, epecially if odds on, is not a certain route to profit.
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the result of 2 races doesn't prove anything, it's the long term that counts. However if you backed Telescope thinking he had 5lb in hand then it was a terrible bet. all depends on how good you thought he was.
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He went off a silly price, thankfully too short for me, but still obviously very disappointing as I had him pegged as a Gp1 horse. The Leicester time could've been skewed by wind influence, although the report said almost nil wind. The other 2 races that day on the round course weren't that slowly run as to make Telescope's time appear as good as it did. They did go a slow pace today, the time was over a second slower than the handicap, whose winner carried 8lbs more.
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He ran a perfectly adequate race against some seasoned Group performers. Not his fault he was ridiculously overhyped.
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the time was a second slower than the hcap today. I think moore should have made the running and made use of that weight for age. He was a little keen early as well
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You know this could work out well for you Figgis as you might get a nice price on Telescope in the future now. I'm quite happy to keep my leicester figure as it is for now and just over look this blip.
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Dunno what to make of it really, Stevie, there can be anomalies with times, especially with small fields, maybe this was one? Some people will no doubt say times are useless blah blah, as though any alternative method that ignores times is fool-proof. I'm not one to fall for hype, but when a trainer I respect as much as Stoute thinks he has a Gp1 horse and it records a time to back up the opinion then I'm inclined to think it is. Maybe he had an off day, or maybe he's temporarily regressed from the Leicester run. Whatever the reason, even though there is enough consistency in the game to make it worth trying to solve, there's still an element of inconsistency, they're only racehorses after all, which is why I don't like backing too short.
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Still like this horse. Definitely hung around the bend and into straight. Maybe he felt like he did when he did that gallop at Lingfield. Anyway, still a step forwards from his last race and I suspect he'll be better next year. Im not writing him at all. Hope everyone else does.
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*writing him off
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Well he looked a relentless galloper at Leicester, today they've gone steady and he's been keen early. Give this horse a truly run 12f and I think we'll see how good he really is.
As for backing shorties well i've been doing this full time for 7 years and every time I seem to back one at odds on they seem to lose and I hardly ever do any that short but I thought I'd load up the program and see what it said. Most of the time I just use my instincts on bigger priced horses. |
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Like most people i was taken in by the performance of Telescope LTO , but it is now clear that the winning distance at Leicester was misleading , the reason for that i think, is the second Horse gave up chasing hard as soon as Telescope was fully on top , he was able to stop chasing hard as the third Horse was far enough behind to allow for the a virtual capitulation without risk of loosing his place , had there been other Horses in the race that could have challenged for second placing in an effective way , then the second would not have given up the chase so readily imo , Telescope is a good Horse but clearly no Superstar yet. There is still hope he might be a very good sort , time will tell
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Not the result you would wan't to see but I think he has more to his game than that. We can talk about hype, better opposition or what he's actually achieved but he just didn't run fast today and looked flat to me. He's a talented horse and has shown glimpses of it but he needs to get back on track. Any thoughts on where next? You'd be hopeful of a decent price next time but due to the media for some unknown reason constantly ramping him up it doesn't seem all that likely.
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I think it was a big ask today and he acquitted himself well. He will go on from this I'm sure of that. These were knocking on Gr2 performers many with lots of battle hardened experience. The winner won the race this side in the Hunt Cup and the 2nd has some good form. There were also some decent performers behind him. I think he is going places and looks sure to stay 12f with the aim of staying in training next year.
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well I don't think you could possibly go for a Group 1 after that performance so I'd probably go something like the september stakes at Kempton on the a/w. Stoute has won that before with Modun.
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or the g3 arc trial race at Newbury over 11f
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