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Telescope 10/1 For Arc After Solo Spin Round Leicester Racecourse
Telescope 10/1 For Arc After Solo Spin Round Leicester Racecourse
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it matters not one jot what the performance level is because the race is regarded as the jewel in the European mid-distance turf crown and will be the target for most of the best performers at this level.
I find that statement odd, as, for me, the level of performance required is fundamental from a betting perspective. |
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Big fan of this horse. Not sure about quotes for the Arc I'd be surprised if he went for it now. I'd guess York will be next. Leger possibly his final run although he certainly doesn't look slow. Hopefully he follows the Harbinger route next season.
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Ryan Moore, BF
*** While on the subject of Classics, I am told that some bookmakers are now quoting Telescope for the St Leger, as well as the Arc, after winning at Leicester on Thursday. Now, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Don't get me wrong, I was delighted with him. You had to be, especially as I was in front a bit sooner than ideal with Centurius dropping away 3f out. He travelled, was always in a good rhythm, saw the race out well and posted a very good time. So a lot of positives, and you had to be very pleased. But don't forget this was just a three-runner conditions and talk of Group 1 races are a touch premature at this stage. We will get him home and then make our plans. But hopefully Leicester gave us plenty to build on. |
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No surprise to see Moore sensibly play it down in public. I don't know how seriously they're considering the Arc, if they are then they might try to save a bit for then. Otherwise, I'd expect them to go straight for a Gp1 with him. I'd be extremely surprised and disappointed if the Leger is the target, as, for me, he's already better than that and whereas I'm absolutely sure 12f would be a given, I don't know about further. If he does take in a Gp1 or two before the Arc then he might've already peaked before the race.
I'm a fan of Intello, but if Telescope was up against him in the near future over 10 or 12f I'd be with Telescope, even though Intello has the Gp1 form in the book. I don't know just how good Fabre's Flintshire really is. From the style of his wins I'd have to think he's better than we've seen, but I don't know how much extra he'll find in a race run at a true pace. Golden Lilac looked pretty good in slowly run races, I think Fabre even said she was the best he'd trained at one stage, but she was always found wanting in a fast run race. One thing in Flintshire's favour is his preparation, as these 2f workouts he's had up to now can't have taken much out of him. |
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It would be a bit odd to jump from a class 3 conditions race straight into a Group 1. I think he'll have another run first before going for a big race. We'll find out later in the week.
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I'm taking the opposite view, sint. As we're in the latter part of the season I don't think there's much time to be messing around with Gp3s and wasting expendable energy, although the way the Leicester race was run he wouldn't have had to use any more energy to win one. I could be wrong, though.
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I should have said valuable energy.
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I'd have thought the Gordon Stakes is the most likely next target - a race Stoute likes, and he is a creature of habit.
If he needs longer to recover then The Great Voltigeur at York. Doubt Stoute will run him in the Juddmonte against the Group 1 older horses so soon. |
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According to Alan lee in The Times today, next will be Juddmonte International or Irish champion then possibly the Arc
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According to Alan lee in The Times today, next will be Juddmonte International or Irish champion then possibly the Arc
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interesting...you'd expect Lee to be pretty confident he's right if he's prepared to publish that - shows a lot of confidence in the horse if they're prepared to pitch him straight into an all aged Group 1.
Fairly long gap between races too, given how lightly raced he is - I'd have though they could go for Gordon Stakes, learn a bit more and then decide whether to go Leger route or the other route. According to RP website, he's been backed for St Leger this morning also, I'd imagine he would at least get an entry for that race to keep their options open. |
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Juddmonte - Irish Champion - Arc ?
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Got 60s for the Leger so hopefully Juddmonte - Leger - Arc
 Looks very unlikely mind given they're going 10f again next! Regarding Moore's comments above playing the horse down a bit, he's obviously not going to come out and big the horse up as he'd be risking looking very silly in the future. Connections obviously have known they have a proper G1 animal for a long time, hence the massive Derby plunge and the fact that they're looking at a 10f G1 against elders, as opposed to a weak 3yo G3  Cant wait to see him in a proper race :) |
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Taken out of the St.Leger today. I would say an Arc bid is definitely on the cards.
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Had some 16/1 at Lads now.
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Yeah I'v took some of the 16s for the arc too.
40/1 for the derby and 60/1 for the leger without getting a run for my money in either. Gotta love ante post punting  |
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Yet to prove he is G1 class - though I think it is probable that he is
Yet to prove that 12f is his trip - though I think it maybe Yet to meet older horses of G1 class Yet to be publicly stated by connections that the Arc IS his target for this year Yet to race on soft ground - although with this summer probably unlikely, but you never know Unless he wins his next race(s) - which should be Group class - is he likely to be less than say 6/1 on the day given the likely competition of Orfevre, Treve, Flintshire,Intello, Al Kazeem for starters? All of which adds up to 7/4 he gets there on the day. Not much of a value bet for me I'm afraid |
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Sandown
I've not backed Telescope for the Arc as I don't know how many races he'll be taking in beforehand and what sort of shape he'll be in on the day. I have no interest in making a book on a race and I don't generally go in for trading. If I did play that way, though, I just can't see how his current price isn't anything but value. In my view he's pretty much nailed on to win whichever Gp1 Stoute aims him at in the near future, which is where I'll be trying to profit on him. For me, on that Leicester win he would've been a good standard of Derby winner. Although that doesn't mean he necessarily would've been if he'd made the race, as I think the extra patience Stoute has shown has helped him develop, I doubt he'd have received the same patience in a yard of somebody like Johnston. What can beat him at York or Leopardstown? The 4yos are a pretty moderate bunch this year. |
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Figgis
There are 2 bets here, a double. One to make the race and one to win it if he runs. He's only 7/4 to make the gig, which is what you will be getting if you back him at 16/1 and he is 6/1 on the day. I backed him at big prices for the Derby and looked what happened there. Why can't it happen twice? If he appears in a competitive race next time up against G1 horses, 7/4 might be an OK price then. Back him at 16/1 to trade out afterwards at say 8.5 would be the same as evens on the day. No, to my mind this is about prices, pure and simple, not his potential. |
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Correction . 16/1 and 6/1 would make it less than 6/4 not 7/4.
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Back him at 16/1 to trade out afterwards at say 8.5 would be the same as evens on the day
His NEXT race, that is.i.e Back him at evens and then back him for the Arc with profit & stake from the winnings (should he win) would be the same as backing him today at 16/1 but with the added info from his next run. |
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Fair enough. As I say I don't make a book so don't have the experience of it. I just think that he'll very likely win his next intended target. Looking at the potential opposition he could possibly win it quite easily, which could mean he ends up getting hyped even more.
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True, but he might just scrape home andwthere would you be with an Arc A/P bet? His price would perhaps be double figs on the day should he go. In fact its an extra risk which I should have added to my list. Not only does he need to win but win impressively for his price to shorten up to say 6/1 on the day given the likely competition.
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The York race looks potentially quite hot to me.
Would anybody be surprised if any of the following beat Telescope: Al Kazeem Cirrus Des Aigles (race on his radar according to trainer on ATR this morning). Trading Leather Toronado Arguably you could throw in The Fugue, Just The Judge and Mukhadram. |
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Looks hot yeah. None of them unbeatable though. Depends how good Telescope is really as at this stage we don't really know. I wouldn't back him at 7/4 against that lot that is for sure!!! He'd have to be a 4/1 + chance.
Al Kazeem is not a certain runner if it is GF anyway. Trainer wants to avoid it from now on apparently. |
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A top form CDA would be difficult to beat, but will we see a top form CDA this year? I have big doubts and would gladly take him on. The only one that would be a concern to me would be an in form Toronado, but how he comes out of that last battle with DA remains to be seen. Even if that race has no ill effects and he stays the extra 2f, he's going to be having another hard race at Goodwood, so I'd gladly take him on too.
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totally concur with your arc views figgis....in regards to quality of the winner...for me sea the stars and dylan thomas were way over the top come the race but class got them through against poor opposition but still achieved a rating way above what they were capable of earlier in the season imo like you say its how you intrepid the form it certainly gives you angles moving on as people overrate the race every year...
can't say what i make of telescope yet as need a form line as is my want, he looks potentially decent his next run will tell us more... can't say i have looked at the arc but intello has looked the best horse i have seen this season in the 3 year old middle distance division...i wouldn't want to back him on longchamp winter ground however... on good ground he will be right on my radar as is all class imo arc along way off trying to get to the bottom of the george  |
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Figgis, what figure did you award Telescope at Leicester?
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Ped
I use a much lower scale, just because I prefer it that way, so it's a bit difficult to put it precisely into the official scale. Then there's also a difference between the Timeform scale and the official one. I've thought of using a similar scale to theirs but there's not much point as I don't really agree with the historical context of some of their ratings, I always think a lot of the higher ratings are too high. All I can say is I'd have him amongst the better Derby winners, if I was using a higher scale it would probably about 130. |
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Figgis I hope all is well. Good to see you on this thread in top form as always my friend
I won't take the thread off track but sad news yesterday re an old friend of mine and yours ...... SNA. Take it easy mate and stay in touch. |
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Yes, very sad news, SOF, hopefully he'll come through the surgery well and have a good stud career.
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All I can say is I'd have him amongst the better Derby winners, if I was using a higher scale it would probably about 130.
can understand your confidence in Telescope given that type of figure, Figgis. Fwiw, had him well below that type of level. But given the middle distance division in GB / Ireland looks very ordinary, could still be a player in the Group 1 contests this autumn. The French are another matter though, Intello and Treve (whilst Flintshire could still be anything, but not on figures earned to date) look to be the outstanding pair for 10f upwards for me. |
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I have Intello and Treve (with her 3lb allowance) on the same mark with Telescope 2lbs ahead of them. I still can't get a proper handle on Flintshire. A lot will depend on who (if any) makes the most progress between now and October. Preparation will also be crucial, as at least one or two of them will have hard races between now and then. This is where I think luck also plays a big part, some horses get lucky and their interim races are slowly run or the opposition aren't up to much or don't fire on the day, so not too much energy gets expended. Whereas others end up putting up big performances before the Arc and aren't quite at their peak on the big day.
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I think Fabre is of the same mind as Cecil (and Murless who I believe advised Cecil on this matter)and that it is only possible to peak a horse for a massive performance once a season. I've also read other trainers who say that if you divide a season into thirds you can only get a horse to run at top form in two of those thirds. Given the importance of the end of the year on the Flat for the big races it might explain why Fabres Arc horses invariably take the Summer off.
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Yes, I agree with that, although using my own figures I'd say it's often possible to get a horse to reach its peak twice in a season, as long as the first one wasn't too hard fought. I'm sure that's why it's so difficult to win the King George and Arc in the same year. It's not that the winners of the KG aren't good enough it's the problem of getting them in the same form in October.
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Herbert: Moore says stick to 10f - he's got plenty of speed. International?
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Juddmonte looks the likeliest target it seems which to me shows how much they think of the horse. Perhaps the Arc could be under consideration this season.
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They mentioned the G3 Rose of Lancaster at Haydock too. Wouldn't be surprised if he went there.
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^ hope so for selfish reasons, I can go and see him there.
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Telescope is the type of horse bookies like. They will price him up for as many races antepost as the can manage.
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