Horse Antepost
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18 Jul 13
17:18
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05 Oct 11
Never ceases to amaze how easily punters accept hype over achievement.
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Replies: 165
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I thought he showed more there than anything I've seen from the fav.
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No idea where you plucked 10/1 from. He was 20 after the race and is now generally available at 16/1.
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Good speed figure was it Figgis? That's the only guide in a race like this, with his rivals clearly not off.
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Yes, very good, Sankara.
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Thanks Figgis - interesting.
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They went a decent pace unlike some of those french farces. My speed figure suggests G1 class.
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interesting stuff from you 'time' lads(great thoughts/insight),can i put a poser to you,if Telescope was in a match tomorrow against Trading Leather on g/f over 12f who would you make fav.
Cheers for any feedback |
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Yeah that's very interesting.
Can anyone expand a bit? How did you guys get such a good speed figure? Am guessing it's not easy to be certain of the going allowance when you're basing it on times from other, weak, races today? |
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Telescope.
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sj
interesting stuff from you 'time' lads(great thoughts/insight),can i put a poser to you,if Telescope was in a match tomorrow against Trading Leather on g/f over 12f who would you make fav. Cheers for any feedback Trading Leather would have to be fav. Because Telescope ran today so would be too tired tomorrow. |
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Ha, yes good point.
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^lol
love talking timefigures,even though i only base my betting on the form book(as such).Obviously to a degree i work to t/figs,as i make sure race has been run at a sound pace. As a 'form' man,i just couldn't put a figure on the race today(i note it was 2secs fast),the third's jockey was looking down the minute the stalls opened and the second had only ran once and won a class 5 mdn.So its great to take on board the thoughts of others. Thanks |
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I have him higher than Trading Leather but only 3 races on round course today and the maiden was on the steady side but the 12f hcap seemed a fair pace. I can't say i'm 100% sure of my figure but it's the one im going with.
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I need Telescope to win some big races. He's just pushed me up to 2nd place in the overall season Ten to Follow table.
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I just timed Reset City at 50s for the last 4f of that final hcap so quite happy that race was run pretty close to optimal and therefore I think my figure for Telescope is quite accurate.
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don't think telescope would be tired tomorrow tbh
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godolphin running amok in maidens this year, but as usual a slight upgrade and theyre back to normal, useless
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G1 horse in the making but needs considerable improvement before even being on short-list for the Arc. Will stay further for sure and 12f not a problem
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Sandown
Why do you think he needs to make considerable improvement? Plenty of Arcs are won by an average Gp1 rating. |
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Or I should have said, the winning performance is no more than an average Gp1 rating.
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Figgis
As we have discussed before,I have a higher opinion of Arc form and what is needed to win it. That said, Telescopic's run yesterday represented further progress and on that performence i think he would have been the one to beat in the Derby. I would still rate him 7-10 lb below what he will need to win an Arc, assuming that he runs and that can't be a given. It would be very unusual to win an Arc without having first won a G1 beforehand so that's a prerequisite, he has no experience of large fields, hasn't yet met older horses and has still to prove 12f is within his capabilities although personally I believe that he sill be suited by further judging by his splits yesterday.Not yet on my short-list for that race - more a St Leger poss this year with the Arc for 2014 knowing Stoute's record with older horses. |
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Had perfect conditions to do a good time yesterday to be fair - good even gallop, no rivals, ridden right out. Might be as good as he is, though that's pretty good.
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It's all about opinions but I think anyone trying to argue the likes of Solemia, Rail Link, Bago and Marienbard were anything more than average Gp 1 winners would have their work cut out. Regardless of that, it's the actual winning performances that I'm talking about, not how good the winner was overall. Danedream's performance could certainly be interpreted as above average, but in winning, Workforce, Sea The Stars, Zarkava didn't need to show exceptional Gp1 form. From memory I think the official ratings and Timeform also concurred with this.
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I would also include Dylan Thomas in that, who had shown a higher level of form previously.
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I'm not backing Telescope now for the Arc, as I don't know how specifically he will be targeted at the race. If Telescope was intended for the KG I would be backing him with considerable confidence, receiving what I believe is an over generous wfa allowance. I think he'd have a far better chance than Hillstar, who has to make big improvement and has nothing more than an outside squeak, in my view.
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Figgis
I'm not sure that I really want to get into a prolonged debate with you about this because you have my respect, and I cerainly don't want to sound patonising,or to cause any offence, but in this instance I believe that you are coming at this with a overly narrow view based on your singular view of merit based on primarily final time ratings. The Arc is a race which has long been reagrded by generations of top trainers and owners as the pre-eminent 12f turf race in Europe and is therefore regarded as the ultimate prize to be won. It is nearly always contested by horses which have proved themselves in other G1's, and although it comes at the end of the season, many top horses are prepared with this race in mind. It may be that on that have been winners of the race which may be regarded as below average but that can be said of any race, in truth. To explain why it might not always be won in a final time which might satisfy time purists, I would suggest that it is in the nature of racing iin France to be run at slower early pace with fast finishing times, which is why in the main, aprt fom heavy grond years, the winners nearly always need to possess a fine turn of foot. Often, this is needed ttwice within the race as there is a lot of shuffling around when they come off that final turn at Longchamp and only the very best horses can take the gaps when needed. It would be true to say that horses very definitely need to stay every yard of 12f especially when it tunrs soft.As you know, the draw can play its part as well. Normally it is won by the best horses but I can think of quite a few races where the best horse did not win (Orfevre last year being the latest.) I am not as hung up on final time ratings as you although like you I believe that the study of times, including sectional times, gives us a much better insight than taking purely collateral form into account. The problem with relying on final time ratings too much is that they vary much more from run to run and even though the best times most often come fromm the best ratings, that may not always be so because of the tactical nature of racing. And the Arc can be a tactical race given the nature of the course and the styl of French racing. Here endeth my lesson for today. |
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Sorry, but that is just wrong. I use my own time ratings for my own betting purposes, however, I know their limitations, as I assume anyone who uses times to any degree of success would. You are almost sounding like the "time only matters in jail" sceptics, who seem to think that we all think poor times means a poor horse and we all back the top rated blindly.
The form of those races I mentioned, does not stack up as exceptional Gp1 form, even for someone who completely ignores times. |
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Figgis
You are taking a selction of races which suit your argument and then generalising from that selection. More to the point would be to take the best dozen winners of the race and compare them with the best dozen winners of any other race which you care to name and then see whther the Arc holds up. In any sport, it is fair to say that sometimes the final match doesn't compare to an earlier match but the point is that is is the final, the winner becomes the Champion, the prize and the title goes to them. The mens Wimbledon final didn't compare with the Djovic/Del Potro semi but so what. it's Murray's name on the board, isn't it? |
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Sandown, I mentioned 6 of the last 7 races, that could hardly be classed as cherry picking. I never said the Arc is worse than other Gp1s, what I said was the actual winning performance is often no better than others.
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Sankara
Had perfect conditions to do a good time yesterday to be fair - good even gallop, no rivals, ridden right out. Might be as good as he is, though that's pretty good. I agree with the first part of that. Given that he is very lightly raced, is clearly highly regarded and entered up, I doubt that is as good as he might be, however. |
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Figgis
Out of curiosity, I looked up the TF top rated middle distance performers on Turf that could have raced in the Arc since the 1940's. Of 23 horses who realistically could have run (European based ), only 6 chose not to and 3 of those at least were injured beforehand and couldn't have run. So, 17 of the top rated horses of the modern era (137+) ran in the Arc and 14 of those won. In choosing just 6 of the last 7 to base your opinion on youthat these races were run below an average G1 level are ignoring the overall record of the race and distorting the picture. Furthermore, I couldn't even agree with you about the the 6 races which you list.Orfevre put up an outstanding performance albeit coming second, Danedream was an excellant run,Workforce was not below average,Sea The Stars was top class,as was Zarkava,Dylan Thomas wasn't bad. Rail Link was also very good given the way the race was run. As far as the Arc is concerned you seem very blinkered. |
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Where did I say any of those runners were below average?
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Not sure what point you are arguing, Figgis.
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I never said it was a below average Gp1 race, the winners were below average, or anything of the kind, which is what you just posted. My argument is that the average winning performance is not necessarily any higher than it would be for any other good, well contested all age Gp 1 race. There seems to be a belief that because the race contains a bunch of high rated horses, often more so than most Gp1 races, then the winning performance has to be of a higher level. This ignores the fact that a lot of the strong form horses don't perform to their best on the day. Borne out by the fact that some pretty moderate (relatively speaking) animals have finished close up in many runnings.
Unless there is an outstanding runner, then as far as I'm concerned, if a trainer can get a horse in peak form there, or to even improve and peak on the day (which is what Fabre so often does) and it can run to the average winning mark for the race (i.e. not an exceptional rating), then that horse has an excellent chance. |
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What's your evidence for saying that
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No doubt whatsoever Telescope will improve from yesterday's run. The way Stoute was speaking after the race suggested he saw it as no more than a racecourse gallop. Next race will be decided within a week so it does suggest it was used as a stepping stone.
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The evidence is there in the form book. I've already stated that Danedream's win could be interpreted as exceptional. Sea The Stars was the best middle distance 3yo I've had the pleasure to see, that goes for ratings too, but it's specifically the level of the winning performance we're talking about. I can think of a lot of horses that could've beaten Cavalryman by just over 2 lengths. Workforce had to scrap to beat the Japanese horse, sure it was a good performance, worthy of a Gp1, but was Nakayama Festa better than an average Gp1 4yo? Not for me. Solemia's form before or since? Ok the ground was a factor, nevertheless, the winning performance is what it is. Dylan Thomas was a proper Gp1 horse, but Sagara was beaten under 2 lengths in 3rd that day, while Authorized, who beat DT previously, flopped dismally. There are countless other examples further down the years.
As I keep having to state, it's the level of the winning performance I'm referring to. I certainly don't always agree with the official verdict or Timeform's, but they also haven't rated most winning performances as outstanding. Personally I don't see how anybody could, unless they're giving extra kudos because of the race's reputation. |
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Figgis
Don't bother to reply to my last post. We have gone off topic and it matters not one jot what the performance level is because the race is regarded as the jewel in the European mid-distance turf crown and will be the target for most of the best performers at this level. Whether Telescope has the right profile for the race this year, I doubt but like sintonian says, he will improve considerably. If he shows the right signs he might go for the KG but for me he is just as, if not more, likely to stick to his age group, go to York and then to the SL. |
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My last post on the Arc. The average RPR for the Arc for the last 10 years is 129.2. For the K George it is 129.5. As many of the top horses run in both that's not surprising. Don't think though that there is any doubt in terms of runners which race has been getting the best of it over that time and is the most competitive to win and which carries the most prestige for owners and trainers.
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