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FOYLESWAR
01 Dec 12 18:59
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
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after a lot debate through spring summer and autumn its nearly upon us ,one of the most, if the most anticipated clash of the season so far between sprinter sacre and sanctuaire and what a race it promises to be sprinter rated 169 and sanct 166 no disrespect to other competitors but it looks between these 2 with sizing euro and fininans not turning up . sprinter sacre is sure to start fav on the back of some great performances last season notably when easilly winning the arkle and will take some beating ,but sanctuaire is not to be underestimated and paul nicholls seems bullish and is not running scared .
the race seems staightforward in how it will be run ..........sanctuaire blasts off in front and its a case of catch me if you can ? but how much rope can sprinter sacre afford to give him it leaves an interesting dilema for barry gerhagty and nicky henderson who must have  disscused this ! sanctuare is a good fast jumper who  blitzed his opponents in his 3 chases last season by setting off in front and his slick fast jumping meant that he never saw an opponent from start to finish at sandown last time ,sprinter sacre is also a very good traveller and  jumper but how much of a lead will he allow sanct to take ,it is likely that sprinter sacre will have to jump at a speed he has never expierenced before especially at the railway fences all in all a race to watch for me not a betting medium unless sanctuaire  is an attractive price .
anyone have any thoughts how to price these 2 up .
by the way i would not be at all suprised if sprinter sacre takes sanctuaire on early and trys to get him at it as sanctuaire has history of spitting the dummy out ,problem is nicholls looks to have found the key to him and a great race is expected with these 2 flying over the fences ...............bring it on !

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Replies: 285
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 01 Dec 12 19:31
A real shame neither of the two top 2m chasers are running for comparison purposes.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 01 Dec 12 19:38
Paddy Power have it at 4/9 Sprinter, 5/2 Sanctuaire

Frankly I dont think Sanctuaire will get close
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 12 07:58
going Saturday and cant wait,and if a bookie is going 5/2 im having some of that.
Cant split them myself,so thats a real tempting price for me.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 02 Dec 12 10:14
FFT, Sanctuaire is bound to be close for part of the race at least as he will lead! Nicholls will have him cherry ripe for this and he will go a real good clip. Perfect scenario for the monster - it should help Geraghty settle him. Whether Sanctuaire will jump as well without a soft lead we will soon see and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the horse is bullied in the same way as Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 13:09
yes I find it very hard to see, given how highly I rate the Sprinter, that there will be one better than him in the same bunch of novices and I do expect SS to go unbeaten for some time. Frighteningly he could be even better this year, many novices do improve in their second season Grin Scary enough on last years efforts and a total monster imo
By:
tinkler
When: 02 Dec 12 13:26
Frankel scenario appears to have happened in this race. If Sprinter Sacre wasn't running ,the line up would probably include
Cue Card, Finians Rainbow and Sizing Europe but SS appears to have scared connections off to run their horses elsewhere.
Personally find it disappointing but can understand why connections have done it.
Still looking forward to seeing SS flying over the Sandown fences but from a betting point of view the vast majority  can see
he's an exceptional animal which is reflected in his price.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 13:37
don't think the Tingle Creek was ever on Cue Cards agenda. Trainer has always said he thinks he is a KG horse. But yes, why would you want to take on this monster? Yes betting wise it makes it far less interesting but the same has happened in the staying hurdle division with Big Bucks. At least, as you say, it will be exciting to see this beast flying round Sandown
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Dec 12 14:00
any ideas of the possibles to face the big 2 ....or 1 as some see it ?
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 14:11
could easily be 4 runners
By:
ACStafford
When: 02 Dec 12 14:39
Should be fascinating to see these two go off against each other, but as good as Sanctuaire is, I'd rather take the 4/9 about SS.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 02 Dec 12 15:53
I was over for the Cheltenham race that SS was pulled out of recently and will be in London from next Saturday morning, so hopefully there isn't a repeat. Should be an intriguing contest, but I really rate SS (who doesn't) and think he will win comfortably.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 12 16:54
keep underestimating Sanct lads,suits me fineHappy

All the threads i have read on these 2 horses,and still i aint read one solid reason why SS is so much better than Sanctuaire.

yes of course we all rate SS,impossible not to,but imo its impossible not to be impressed with Sanctuaire as well.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 17:09
how do you know anyone is underestimating him? could easily have been over estimated for all anyone knows
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 12 17:21
im assuming that when people say SS should win comfortably they are underestimating his opponents.especially given the manner of Sancts chase wins.
take yer point though.
By:
mushroom23
When: 02 Dec 12 17:38
Sprinter Sacre is an amazing prospect who looked a star in the making last year but I am loving the disregard for Sanctuaire.
I personally think he's a massive threat to SS. Sandown is very much a specialist track and his two performances there last year were visually outstanding. Handicapper only has 3lb between and being honest I'm not sure is last years Arkle fantastic 2mile form.
The form literally looks well but I think CC, Menorah and of course Al Ferof were running over their minimum distance. Walloping Somersby at Sandown who had beaten the Champion Chaser over 17f at Ascot is the best 2m form in the race for me.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 17:45
Sommersby clearly ran massively below form as he only just beat home Dan Breen who is rated a full 18lbs inferior so that form is definitely questionable. The performance was spectacular indeed but the horses behind were dodgy

I would rate the Arkle massively superior in terms of class and the form has been franked by both Cue Card and Al Ferof... and the winner never came off the bridle
By:
mushroom23
When: 02 Dec 12 17:49
I agree that Somersby ran below form but by how much is debatable as Sanctuaire had the whole field in trouble a mile out. The Arkle form has been franked but not in terms of 2m form, the 3 horses in behind that day all need quite a bit further than 2m imo. Don't get me wrong I think SS is the most likely winner but I think Sanctuaire will give him his biggest test by far to date.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 17:55
well how far should Sommersby beat Dan Breen at level weights? Well, at least 12 to 14 lengths maybe more depending on how much you allow per pound. He beat him 1.75 lengths and gave 4lbs which equates about 6lb. In that case he ran about 12lbs below his rating give or take a pound or two
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 18:00
oh yes no doubt Sanctuaire looks like he should run a huge race if he can reproduce the slick jumping but I do have him quite a long way behind. Bare in mind Cue Card is now rated 165 and Sprinter beat him 7 lengths without coming off the bridle. He is at least a 175 horse on what he has done so far in my book and has the potential to be a fair bit better yet. Total monsters like that don't come round often and almost never at the same time
By:
BJG
When: 02 Dec 12 18:01
So every horse in d race ran below par Confused
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 12 18:04
yeh mushroom,i was there that day and backed Somersby.
could not believe what i was seeing with a mile to go,race was over.
This is a serious 2miler that loves Sandown,he jumps as good as any novice ive seen for some time,although i would say the same about SS.
End of season form is always questionable,but theres no doubt what Sanctuaire did that day,and even a top form Somersby would have struggled to get to him imo,and IF thats right,theres no better form that these 2 have provided between them.
IF!!
By:
mushroom23
When: 02 Dec 12 18:06
I wouldnt take the form that literally, Sanctuaire took each horse out of there comfort zone and had them all legless 5 from home. It reminded me a bit of when Frankel won the QE2 and Side Glance finished a neck second to Excelebration, Frankel taking them out of their comfort zone had the field in behind finishing on top of each other, when Excelebration met Side Glance at Ascot minus Frankel he ran to his mark in the process hammering SG. Its a roundabout way of looking at it but it works for me Blush
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 18:35
one of Sommersby and Dan Breen did not run to their mark and I have serious doubt believing Dan Breen ran above his mark, seeing as everyone says 'every horse was beat with a mile to go'

anyway, that has yet to be tested so we don't know for sure but the bare form shows Sanctuaire beat Dan Breen 18.75 lengths at levels and Dan Breen is rated 148. So the range you can give to the winner is a conservative 160 to an enthusiastic 175 depending on how you decide to settle it and that's assuming DB ran to form.

We will see which end of that spectrum is more accurate in the Tingle Creek. For the record I have it down as a 165 performance leaving him 10lb behind on my numbers
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 02 Dec 12 18:48
We'll see Saturday. I just hope we don't get the ' if Sanctuaire hadn't made a serious mistake at the 4th last bollix'. Everything is in his favour for this race. If he wins, good luck to those that back him. I won't be playing but expect SS to be 2's on for the Champion Chase after this race.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 18:55
me too FF

wonder where he will overtake? might be the pond fence if Sanctuaire is getting tired at that point, who knows anything could happen

it's why I love jump racing so much, I'm far more excited by this than I ever was by Camelot going for the Triple Crown
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 12 19:32
equally FF.lets hope we dont get the"if SS hadn't made a seious mistake",just as likely imo,or just as unlikely more like.
nice clear round by both is what we want,no excuses,and a great race,will do nicely.
winner will be a real good horse,well both are anyway imo
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Dec 12 19:48
it's why I love jump racing so much

judo,i know we have our disagreements,but i could not agree more with that.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 02 Dec 12 21:24
Yes budd, if Sanctuaire wins fair and square, I'l be the first to put my hands up. As I believe it's jumping that wins the monster his races, he probably won't if he **** up. That's the point thougn.....this is the best jumper we have seen in eons.
By:
duffy
When: 02 Dec 12 23:33
FOYLESWAR 01 Dec 12 19:59 
by the way i would not be at all suprised if sprinter sacre takes sanctuaire on early and trys to get him at it as sanctuaire has history of spitting the dummy out ,problem is nicholls looks to have found the key to him and a great race is expected with these 2 flying over the fences ...............bring it on !


good point that, i think this  will happen...can see the race being an anti-climax as regards the competitive nature of it.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Dec 12 23:43
I made the same point somewhere and got a reply calling me a 'clueless cretin' Laugh

Sprinter has such a high cruising speed anything could happen including Sanctuaire not being quick enough to lead him... but I suspect Barry will try and settle behind as he did at Newbury and Cheltenham only to take it up because he was going so much better
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 12 06:18
i be amazed if sanct aint quick enough to lead having watched his races.SS has had problems settling at times and first time out i cannot see BG taking Ruby on early.
BG should have SS fairly close though whether he wants to or not,cos from what ive seen Sanct wont be stopping in front.
SS will have to jump and travel at a pace hes never been before so thats fascinating to see how he does in that scenario,and how he finishes his race having exerted himself more than he has before.i suspect he will be fine though,but its cos of the way Sanct runs that for me makes it really intriguing as to how SS copes.
it adds to the race the fact that they have never met,and both jump fences really well.Great we have the 2 top jocks as well.
i honestly think SS will be facing the best 2 miler he has faced yet,and should he win this comfortably at a track that Sanct seems to excel at,then SS is probably as good as most think he is.
By:
Sergei_Rebrofl
When: 03 Dec 12 11:13
I've posted something similiar elsewhere...

I reckon Sanctuaires sandown run can't be taken too literally on basic form lines. Somersby tends to have 1 or 2 decent runs a season, and had just been through a hard slog at Cheltenham after a hard fought win in the VC. Wishful Thinking had also had a bad fall at Cheltenham before going to Aintree, and at Sandown he was over 2m - he is not nearly as effective over that trip. Sanc had every right to beat them well considering he had fitness on his side, though I agree that you have to be impressed by his jumping
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 12 11:48
yeh,i think thats fair SR.
Risky imo to take form too literally,especially when it involves horses running at the end of the season.
Way i am looking at the race is really by the impression that both horses have given me.
I cant really fault either to be honest,although if i look at the form of both horses i could certainly find fault with some of the horses they have both beaten.
But as i say thats not how i am approaching this race.
Its simple for me,both have equally impressed me and i will be there Saturday searching for odds against on one of them,which will almost definitely be Sanctuaire.
If it were the other way round and Sanctuaire was the one everyone was raving about,i would be looking at odds for SS.
As ive said i personally cannot split them,so it makes sense to either not bet or have a go at the one i think might be value.
One thing for sure,there will not be a maximum bet from me on the race.
By:
judorick
When: 03 Dec 12 11:51
just to point out that 2 starts after running in that Sandown race Dan Breen was unable to win a handicap off 132. That is a serious question mark
By:
judorick
When: 03 Dec 12 11:53
I can't believe you can't split them, it's fairly easy to do so in my opinion
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 12 12:05
well thats racing Judo,we look at it differently sometimes,thats why we bet against each other.

Like i said Judo,the formlines are not my approach here,so Dan Breen and any other horse thats been thrashed by either,i aint bothered about.
My concern is the race itself and how it pans out,and form of either horse is not helping me.
They win their races too easily,and both i feel are capable of more.
Also the improvement in both is unknown.
Im making it as simple as i can,value(or not) on the day imo, is what counts for me.
By:
judorick
When: 03 Dec 12 12:25
fair enough but I have to say on my numbers Sanctuaire has a lot to do to trouble the monster so I don't see the way the race is run having any effect unless it is run at an absolute crawl and no one is expecting that - I'm expecting a blistering race....

let's hope both run their race and jump cleanly, that should be some sight!
By:
buddeliea
When: 03 Dec 12 15:12
oh it will be a good pace alright,and absolutely Judo, both horses hopefully run their race.
Be a right anti climax if one of them misses a fence!!
Its one of those races that whatever you back,you want both to run their race,and take the result.

Im going to get as close as i can to the fences on the home straight with my camera.
Just got to time it right!!

Any ideas on likely opposition yet??
By:
tinkler
When: 03 Dec 12 15:32
No entries listed on RP website ,Budd. It looks like they've re-opened it due to lack of entries.
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