budd if sanc was value in your eyes why wouldnt you have a big bet,if it isnt value why would you bet it at all,the value boys on here will break you into little pieces,regardless of the opposition if its value you should be doubling your bet not going small

i might have a big bet,i said it would not be a maximum.
will decide on the day when i see the horses and the prices.Wont be betting on here.

Budd I can prove it unfortunately. I have seen Sprinter Sacre demolish Al Ferof in the Arkle. Jumping is the name of the game. It's like when people say how many Gold Cups would Big Buck's have won? Well none because he can't jump. I have never seen Al Ferof even trouble Sprinter Sacre over fences. And I'm a big fan of Al Ferof so I'm not just being a dick about it. He's a hugely talented horse and in the Supreme you could see he needed further than the bare 2 miles.

But we do know Budd it's not an opinion it's a fact. I think you need to move on from this defeat tbh nobody else.

What about the direct form line with French Opera? SS beat it an easy (won on bridle) 6L at Newbury getting 5lbs. Sanctuaire beat FO, again easily, 23L at levels. We all know SS is the "sexy" horse but 5-2, I think, is quite generous for Sanc. I think it will be under 2s on Sat. btw I've taken Paddy's 5-2

Sprinter Sacre's formlines are perfectly reliable, it's all there to be seen and the only conclusion can be that he is a truly exceptional 2 mile chaser

as for the gap being 'closer' based on what you've 'seen' that is exactly the problem and why, as you said earlier, you struggle to separate them. You've said yourself that you don't use ratings so you have no objective measure of the value of the form. Yes, you gut feeling based on visual impression may be valid but when reliable ratings systems from a variety of sources all put the one well ahead of the other it is sensible to at least reflect on whether they might be right.

I am a ratings man and have been for 25+ years which means you get to know when the figures are telling a clear story and in this case they are telling me 1) that Sprinter Sacre is a super fast top class horse with massive potential and 2) Sanctuaire's form, whilst visually impressive, is questionable in terms of it's true worth but even if I put the most positive spin on it it still comes up short, on the numbers, compared to the monster (and I repeat that the numbers for SS are completely solid and take into account the bare form only)

I think the Official Handicapper should be raising his mark of 169 for Sprinter Sacre anyway. I mean he raised Cue Card to 165 and Al Ferof to 167 and I am in no doubt at all that Sprinter is 10lb better than Cue Card. All the collateral form has worked out brilliantly. RPR have him on 176, Timeform 180 and TS has him on 165 and he never came off the bridle. Sanctuaire is on RPR 168, TF 169 and TS 150.

Anyway, just saying, I have faith in the ratings I use and they are telling me a clear story. We will see whether the horses run to the numbers come Saturday because as we know they don't run on paper

Sanctuaire hugely overrated, and I remember what a dog it was over hurdles too. Clash of the weekend is not this cakewalk for Sprinter Sacre but Flemenstar-Sir Des Champs on Sunday, with potential Overturn-Captain Conan clash trumping it too.

Indeed Judo,they dont run on paper.

The race will be totally diffent to any of SS previous races,no doubt in my mind.
He will almost certainly have to go quicker during the race than hes ever been,and hes facing a horse that over fences we have not got to the bottom of,same as SS of course.Hes also facing a horse thats ran twice at the course and jumped impressively both times and won impressively both times,by wide margins.
Will the course experience have a factor in the outcome? dont know,SS might take to it fine,but i do know it does Sanctuaiares chances no harm.

PA Stables ‏@PA_Stables
Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire remain in contention for the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday, for which 10 horses have been now confirmed.

well I don't

and as I explained I have a solid, believable and objective reasons for thinking so. He has plenty in hand and if they run to the numbers I have (and many times horses do, that's why I have faith in the ratings I use) Sprinter Sacre will win easily. All your arguments about pace, track and all that will be irrelevant

Anyway, let's see what happens but I will repeat, I expect Sprinter to win easily and I think it is as plain as the nose on your face that this will happen. He may not even have to run anywhere near his best to do so. This is, as I say, based on over 25 years of interpreting these ratings and all my experience tells me that when they have a margin of 15 points on Topspeed, for instance, then in fact they have a huge superiority. That's what I expect to be confirmed again

Hendo did want to give SS a run at Cheltenham. It was hardly an important race so why do it other than improve fitness or take the freshness away?

Not saying this will stop him as I also think SS the most likely winner, but this will be the day if any to beat him.

Cheers TT,
10 runners eh,some decent prize money on offer.

no probs

Really looking forward to both days at Sandown and especially the Tingle Creek. I suspect SS will prove superior but at 4/9 and 5/2 respectively i will take a chance on Sanctuaire as it has already proved a liking for the course and SS might just be vunerable first time out.

enjoy! hope it ain't too cold and you win a bundle

Sandown is my second fav course behind jumping HQ

blimey,thats confidence for you,could look a tad silly this time Saturday.
this game can do that.

blimey,another one whose possibly gonna look silly on Saturday.

surprised at you CV!!

the value in opposing monsters comes in being able to say various things afterwards like being brave enough to take on the hotpot or to say 'at least I got the value' and so on, it's a common phenomenon, safe in the knowledge that if the hotpot dots up as predicted then at least that was what was expected...

many people do indeed think SS is right out of the very top drawer in the Moscow Flyer type class and have a lot of faith in him reaching those heights; I certainly think he has the potential to be that good and horses of that calibre don't come round very often and almost never simultaneously

as I have said I expect an impressive victory on Saturday

Make no mistake about it both these animals will be at their peak, they are 2 milers not 3 mile plus chasers that need 40 odd days recovery. The handicapper has them 3lbs apart and I hear the arguments for hoisting SS's mark in respect of the horses he has beaten being hiked post thus, but they have both had a summers pasture and both are sure to improve for it.
I agree with Bud here, this course will find out any jumping frailties that SS may harbour, retrospectively Sanctuaire has had two absolutely perfect rounds of jumping at top speed without the semblance of an error. He had Somersby and Wishful thinking of the bridal 2 minutes 54 seconds(5 out)into the race, whilst still tanking along and making the last two fences look like hurdles. Draw a rough line through them two; both of them having run Finnians close over 2 miles and he in turn then ran Sizing close in the QM, that after Sizing had won this race as a seasoned chaser in a time less than a second faster on better ground. If Sanctuaire jumps and travels the way he can on this course then this will be a classic, I fully expect two seperate races and wait with baited breath to see if SS is still tanking along off the bend after the Railway fences in behind the hard held Sanctuaire.