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By:
Figgis
When: 20 Jul 12 17:26
I'd say it's already just the slow side of good, sint, if the time for Hefner's race is any guide.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 20 Jul 12 17:41
I know his form ain't too good this season, but nobody on here seems to be considering MASKED MARVEL at all, which is good for me, as I can increase my free greening on an outsider with a squeak, who could hit a low price on the home turn.

I see Dettori is booked for Gosden's second string, and I think he could get first run on some of the principles once Robin Hood has shot his bolt, and he'll make it a real stamina test, and could possibly do 'a Teenoso' at massive odds.
He's far better than his recent performances indicate and it could be dangerous for the big guns to give him too much rope.

The ground is an obvious concern for him (just like it was for Teenoso) as it is with ST.NICHOLAS ABBEY, who despite looking very comfortable on it in the RP Trophy as a 2yo, beat trees!

He's won the Coronation Cup twice, which in reality is just about the cheapest all-aged middle-distance group one in Britain, and his other group one was on fast ground in the USA, at a stage of the season when I don't believe the top European horses are EVER at a peak.

SEA MOON looks a typical Stoute 4yo improver in the mould of many we've seen over the decades, though I don't think he was anywhere near as unlucky as everyone believed in the St.Leger - nevertheless, he looks about the most solid choice for the frame, despite needing a bit extra, which everyone seems unanimous in thinking that is in his locker, and conditions look perfect for him.

The Eclipse & King George double can be done (half a dozen following up over the last 30 years) but NATHANIEL could be up against it with an interrupted preparation and just a fortnight between races this season, and that rare fortnight gap nearly caught out a superior performer in Nashwan!

DUNADEN just looks a strong stayer to me and shouldn't have the pace for this level, though the anticipated strong stamina test will be in his favour, and he will undoubtedly be running on after losing his position when the gallop is stepped up.

DANEDREAM is the form choice for me, and it's difficult to find negatives in her best form - it seems far easier for others to proclaim her Arc victory as just a fluke, whereas I think it was an exceptional performance - she's way over-priced.

DEEP BRILLANTE is a real unknown quantity though I haven't heard any Orfevre or Deep Impact noises, and in reality, he probably has a bit to find.

RELIABLE MAN has proved very disappointing on numerous occasions (considering the best of his form) and although the ability is there, I don't believe he's appropriately named.
He may well be 'primed' later in the season, as it's rare to have a 4yo French challenger for this event.

BROWN PANTHER has everything in his favour except the raw ability to deal with this lot, which is the most important factor - I suppose he has a squeak of the place money by default if others under-perform, but he's definitely NOT one for me.

In summary then...DANEDREAM is the choice with SEA MOON being the biggest danger, and MASKED MARVEL the  one that could provide an upset - it's a big 'IF' but well worth a trade at the prices on here, as I'm thinking he'll be the first to kick and stretch them.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 20 Jul 12 17:52
"The Eclipse & King George double can be done (half a dozen following up over the last 30 years)"

Just realised those six were between 1980 - 1993 and NONE since Shocked
That's an odd statistic Confused
By:
A_T
When: 20 Jul 12 18:02
There is usually 3 weeks between the Eclipse and King George so it is probably even harder this year.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 20 Jul 12 18:06
AT - that's my point about Nathaniel Wink
He's a smashing colt but his prep and the two week gap is a real concern in my view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gXBbQsi3MU
Teenoso's 1984 victory - vintage Piggott.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 20 Jul 12 18:49
danedream for me at the prices ,looks the value call here and wouldnt be suprised if pricewise puts it up, had st nick behind in the arc and  more than double his price ,it seems the german horses are still being underestimated ,nathanial had a hard race in the eclipse and only 2 weeks to recover ,sea moon improving but a bit to find on the book imo ,and  closely matched with dunaden . the 10s or thereabouts each way on danedream appeal to me .
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 20 Jul 12 19:01
FW - I'd say it was a stretch of the imagination to say Sea Moon is CLOSELY matched with Dunaden, as he won with ease.
With the benefit of hindsight these 'unlucky' horses invariably are found to have run their races and I figure Stoute's colt is a gimme to comfortably confirm the form with Dunaden, though that's probably a 4/9 shot in a match bet.

To confirm or even INCREASE the margin of superiority on Royal Ascot form would be a decent price, but I think he's up to doing so...at the prices, I just can't fancy Dunaden at all.

I'm sure he'll be staying on but he just hasn't got the gears to win a King George as good as this, and I'm still to be convinced he's a genuine group one performer, though he's worth his place.

He'd need to be 20/1 for me to be even slightly interested - he's much too short at 7/1, not to mention the ludicrous 11/2 with Bad Blokes Confused
By:
A_T
When: 20 Jul 12 19:31
Danedream for me would be half the price if French-trained. Sea Moon could be anything - might well be a Harbinger but has failed to win both times it's run at G1 level.
By:
mac99
When: 20 Jul 12 20:05
I also think Sea Moon is nailed on to run a big race, but just a word caution,  Sea Moon is generally held up and so is SNA , There are very few suspect stayers in the field  tomorrow  and getting a clear run in the home straight is far from  guaranteed , with the ground drying up Horses Like Danedream and  even the Horse from Japan may have plenty left  turning for home
By:
HorseRacingExpert
When: 20 Jul 12 20:26
still SNA's race all day long,the 5/1 a few days back was a gift,as long as there is no downpour,he hacks up tomorrow
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Jul 12 21:18
Not entirely sure but believe SNA was on Lasix when they met in the U.S and Sea Moon wasn't. Not sure how much a difference that makes personally but worth bearing in mind.
By:
bazzar
When: 20 Jul 12 21:52
I think you might be right and that was the reason I backed him in America.
By:
RMB ©
When: 20 Jul 12 22:10
SNA was on lasix yeah.
By:
tobermory
When: 21 Jul 12 02:20
Danedream@11 & Reliable Man@28 for me
By:
RozelKid
When: 21 Jul 12 15:53
come on danedream....show the boys what your made of!!
By:
RozelKid
When: 21 Jul 12 16:43
get in you fookin dancer!
By:
mr_sykes
When: 21 Jul 12 16:45
well done danedream backers,another big priced german winner
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 21 Jul 12 16:45
I think the result is about right.

danedream - arc winner
nathaniel - beast
st nick - yep 3rd is about right vs the top 2 (confimed form with sea moon)
Reliable Man - lways likely to run on like that without winning
Sea Moon - that's as good as he is....at least confirmed form with dunaden
By:
teflontom
When: 21 Jul 12 16:54
St Nic needs a road to be at best.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 21 Jul 12 16:55
Well done backers - the front 3 in the betting all had negatives so she was a good shout at the prices. I totally dismissed her for last years Arc so had to stick to my guns and ignore her again.Cry
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 21 Jul 12 17:24
anyone got a lendLaugh

wd DD backers.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 21 Jul 12 17:46
good analysis gooner,form looks about right,will it be good enough to win the Arc in Oct?that could be as good as the older generation get this yr imo Nathaniel and DD only ones to take out of race but wouldnt be in hurry to back either for Oct between now and then,momentum could start swinging in favour of the 3 yr olds in next couple months
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Jul 12 17:47
Cant fault the front two. Well done Dane backers.

I've said it before and i'll say it again, the sooner Ballydoyle employ a top class jockey the better. SNA given too much to do against the front pair. He got a 7-day ban for overuse of the whip.

No excuses for Sea Moon Sad 5th was a good run but possibly wants further than 1m4f in G1 company.
By:
elisjohn
When: 21 Jul 12 17:50
mr sykes, there isnt any 3 year olds Grin
By:
mr_sykes
When: 21 Jul 12 17:56
agree somewhat about Ballydoyle jockey sint,Joseph is not a bad jockey but if he was on Camelot in Oct it might be a tall ask against more experienced riders,thought Sea Moon ran well enough,would prob have placed had it not dried up as much,not sure he would have won though
By:
mr_sykes
When: 21 Jul 12 18:07
Camelot,Valyra,Last Train and to lesser extent Imperial M would be the 3 yr olds I'd have in mind at minute elis,WFA is still a big advantage
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jul 12 18:08
Well done Danedream backers. I rated her Arc win highly but was wrongly of the opinion she probably wouldn't go on as a 4yo and her runs this year just enforced that opinion. After that win I think she's probably the best middle distance mare I've seen. I've seen some very good 3yo fillies but none I can remember that were quite as good as that without the 3yo allowance.
I was also wrong about Nathaniel being unlikely to run to his best, he ran pretty much bang on his Eclipse form, just a pound lower I reckon, it was a great effort in the circumstances.
Have to say, though, that was a woefully inept ride from O'Brien, any chance he may have had was spent before turning into the straight. I'm certainly not saying he should have won, but I also think it's very unlikely either of the front 2 would have if they'd been ridden from such a position.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 21 Jul 12 18:35
well done danedream backers and a very good effort from nathaniel, have been suffering from a pulled muscle in my back, in agony most of week  ,felt a lot better today but in the exitement of danedream just getting up i was riding the finish with starke and buick  finish and pulled the back again ,in fecking agony again Cry
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Jul 12 18:44
I am a happy camper with the way things panned out.

However I have to say something about those who are crabbing JOB. He was on a horse that has at least shown a turn of foot....what the hell was Ryan Moore doing? He was only a place ahead of SNA the whole way round who beat him comfortably.
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Jul 12 22:06
Neither horse was the beneficiary of a great ride Roo, giving rope like that to proven Group 1 performers is asking for trouble, but JOB has got SNA beaten before in the Mooresbridge. It's another shocker imo.

AOB said afterwards ''there will be other days'' . Yeah. Hopefully with a better jockey on.
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Jul 12 22:08
Sea Moon showed a decisive turn of foot in the Hardwicke. He was just not good enough today. May have got 3rd at best.
By:
bazzar
When: 22 Jul 12 05:41
The Coolemore outfit and their messing about caused me to throw away a few
quid on the double, EXCELEBRATION and DANEDREAM, never intended to run
him in JULY cup, but why waste money like they do?
The next name for one of their horses, (keeping in mind the naming of LISTEN because it's Aidens most repeated word), my suggestion is "THE UNRELIABLE MEN".
By:
bazzar
When: 22 Jul 12 07:19
Mac99, as regards SEA MOON being held up, I think that MOORE
rides MOST horses that way, it is now a VERY bad habit,
view how many races he has lost on PRESVIS for one, there are others TOO NUMEROUS to mention.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 22 Jul 12 07:59
on reflection nathaniel has run a stormer and considering he only had had 2 weeks to get over his hard race in the eclipse i would say he has improved another 3-5 lb on the eclipse run as the king george looks to be just about the strongest 1.4mile race run this season ,id have nath and danedream ratings wise about the same now , maybe a pound  in it either way. the arc is boiling  up to be a cracker .
By:
MrDinos
When: 22 Jul 12 08:00
Congratulations to all Danedream backers, two fantastic horses slugging it out was a sight to behold and one of the best races I've seen for a while. I ended up backing Danedream and Deep Brillante EW, I wish I went with my first opinion on both horses but that's easy to say after the race!!

There was a great stat in the Weekender which forced me to back Danedream and it concerned the last horse to win a King George after being unplaced on their previous start. That horse was a filly called Time Charter who also beat a stellar field in 1983. Strange how these kind of things happen.

She maybe small in size but she has got a massive heart and proved the Arc was no fluke. Connections must be happy she will never have to race at Saint-Cloud again!!!
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Jul 12 08:46
I'm not Joseph's biggest fan either but as was widely predicted beforehand SNA is clearly not comfortable going right handed.  Run that race at Leopardstown, York or Saint Cloud and he would have been a 1L+ winner imo.
By:
MrDinos
When: 22 Jul 12 09:07
Horses for courses unclepuncle!

Japan Cup would be the race I'd go for if owned him, all but a dream. Haha
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Jul 12 10:03
Yes he rode a poor race in the Moorsbridge, but then again so did Murtagh. In that race I feel JOB was covering his move as in the race yesterday he was covering Sea Moon.

He was too far back but imo he rode a far better race than Moore. When they turned it he put SM amongst horses whereas at least JOB gave SNA a clear sight of what was needed. If he was the horse that Coolmore think he is, he should have won yesterday. I am not sure that at the line he was any closer to the winner than when they were 1.5F out. On the day the best horses fought out the finish.

I just think people are very quick to blame JOB when in all likelyhood he was following instructions. Just because SNA got closer to the winner at the end than Sea Moon it gains attention but Moore rode a pi55 poor race
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Jul 12 11:10
After looking at the race more in depth and comparing the times on the card I don't believe the race was quite as good as my initial impression. Considering it was run at a decent pace the final time was a bit below par for the race. Even allowing for the quality of the line-up they finished a bit too compressed in behind. For me, if Nathaniel ran to his Eclipse form yesterday then too many horses, such as Reliable Man, Dunaden and Brown Panther have improved significantly on their best marks, which I just don't believe. Plus, from a speed figure angle it would make Fanunalter's performance better than it was.
I have Danedream running right up to her Arc performance but with no real improvement from 3 to 4. Unless this year's Arc ends up being substandard or slowly run I think Danedream will have to improve a bit to win it again (which she may do). In my view, Nathaniel's Eclipse win is still the best middle distance performance I've seen this year (obviously Danedream backers won't agree), if Gosden can get him back in the same form come October he'd be the one to beat.
By:
A_T
When: 22 Jul 12 11:20
With SNA they probably figured there were better horses in the field and gambled the race would be run too fast and he'd mow them down in the straight - then send him off to stud on the back of that
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