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*** King George VI and QE Stks ***
*** King George VI and QE Stks ***
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She is a small filly , it will be something if she can do it all again , price is about right imo maybe even a bit short as you can not say she has got going yet
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Isn't the Juddmonte run in Ebor week or have I got my dates mized up? If so, Gosden seems keen to have another crack at Frankel. He could run this weekend and at York but if anyone fancies him for this weekend i'd wait until NRNB.
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yes youre right sint, the 1st day of ebor meeting.
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When she won the ARC, there were 27 previous group 1 winners, including
a DERBY winner, an Irish Derby winner, a French Derby winner, an Oaks winner, an ARC winner and a ST LEGER winner, all toiling 5 lengths and more behind her, she has done it on different types of going from boggy to G/F to good in the ARC, WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT? ATTIVO was a small horse and just look at what he did. |
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This market has got IBAS written all over it imo...
Nationality of the Winner of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - Winning Nationality Ireland 4/5 United Kingdom 9/4 France 7/2 Germany 10/1 Japan 20/1 Looking at those prices I can only assume PP are taking the horses' suffix as their 'nationality'. So Nathaniel is Irish, Reliable Man is British...etc? Just as well they won't lay more than tuppence as this could end in carnage. |
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IBAS
 agreed, would be nice if they put the actual rules up, what a horror show that is somebody ring up william reeve (the undercover boss) and get confirmation, tia |
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tinkler 16 Jul 12 19:58
Danedream is only a small filly for whom wfa was a big plus as a 3 y/o. She's set to carry 9-4 here which will be the most she's ever carried and is a significant factor for a small filly like Danedream, where every pound will count. Stiff 1 1/2m on likely softish ground with 9-4 on her back will make life very difficult for her imo. she is a 12/1 shot so it's 1/12 that you're right and she won't win. I would prefer to go on what she has done on the track rather than her size though. |
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So Nathaniel does run - should be a fantastic, competitive race. Hopefully they don't get too much rain so they can run on genuinely good ground that cannot be used as an excuse by anyone
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Yes confirmed now.
Very tight at the head of the market. Sea Moon should be available at 4/1 by the weeked I expect as he has not achieved as much as the rest, but clearly he is the one with the big ticket to improve. |
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SM could well drift they couldnt give Harbinger away when he won 2 yrs although this is a much tougher renewal
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she is a 12/1 shot so it's 1/12 that you're right and she won't win
Fair point. To be right the horse would have to come no better than 4th, if she came 3rd or better I'd count it as a misjudgement. Quote from Nick Mordin in todays weekender " Danedreams trainer says she can't perform Left-handed.But she's scored the last 5 times she's tackled right-handed courses like Ascot.She's won the biggest races in Germany and France and fits the profile of past King george winners" |
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BADEN-BADEN is left handed.
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Personal View of some of the runners
Nathaniel - soft ground specialist. If the tack dries out doubt he'll have the pace needed. Has a tremendous attitude and can be difficult to get past. Sea moon - If times are anything to go by then he's probably significantly better than Nathaniel having clocked a 20 length quicker time over C/d than Nathaniel on similar ground. Sea moon isn't a mudlark and good ground would probably be OK. ST Nich Abbey - Appeared to get stuck in the soft ground in this race last year. His record an good or faster ground is impressive and he looked to be an improved animal when winning at Epsom. Dunaden- Unlucky in running last time in what could have been a high quality Hardwick. Could get closer to Sea Moon , but price looks tight enough. Danedream- arc winner deserves some respect but not for me . If the ground dries out to near good to firm then I'd favour SNA on Good SNA and Sea Moon and good to soft Sea Moon. On soft Nathaniel enters the reckoning. There isn't a great deal of room to manouvere in these horses prices and will take a look at conditions nearer race time. If all the leading contenders stand their ground imo it looks like being the race of the season so far. |
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Cannot have your assessment/comparison of Nathaniel and Sea Moon tinkler - be very interested to know how you have Sea Moon 20 lengths quicker than Nathaniel ( I presume you are talking about last year's King George, that was run at a crawl for the first 2 furlongs, and this year's Hardwicke?
Of the principals, he is the only one to have won any Group race over 10F let alone a Group 1 so surprised that you feel he may lack the necessary pace. You mention it in context with the ground but what wont he act on as it is never going to be any worse than good on Saturday? |
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SNA seems to be on the drift now.
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I can understand why Nathaniel is thought to be just a soft ground specialist and to ,'lack pace' .In his second race at two he was beaten by Picture editor over a mile on good ground ;Picture Editor is a Horse rated only in the high nineties , so on the face of it a defeat by him lends weight to the view that Nathaniel is nothing but a resolute galloper, for example the idea that he would have chased home Frankel at a respectable distance at Ascot last time might seem laughable to some , but that imo in is a mistake,Frankel simply outstayed the opposition on g/s at Ascot and no doubt would have outpaced Nathaniel by two or three lengths , no more than that, maybe less .The thing to remember about this Horse is that it takes him six furlongs to get into stride , he was not fully in stride when Picture Editor beat him , he was just padding along at the head of the field .The point to be made is that
he was always, from his first run as a two year old and still is a work in progress.I have the greatest respect for his main market rival Sea moon who is primed to the minute for this race and undoubtedly possess more tactical mid race speed than his rival but tactical speed will not i believe decide the outcome ,that will be decided in a ferocious battle to the line .If Nathaniel is unable to deliver of his best then Sea Moon would be a worthy winner gl whatever you fancy |
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Roobuck - i haven't said what i think the ground will be on Saturday,have just tried to cover every
ground eventuality. If it comes up good on saturday though ,which is possible he'll most likely have to run the C/d ,that he's already won twice over,20 lengths faster than he's done before. Under these conditions his average mph is going to have to be a lot faster than before. The sandown time was slowish as was the ground,he didn't show much pace to me there but ground out the victory.He's got a great attitude and if he gets enough cut he must have a big chance. But if it comes up good I don't see him having the pace. Mac99 - I agree Nathaniel has probably improved ,physically he looks stronger and Gosden has confirmed it. But he's entitled to from 3-4 and I doubt he's improved more than wfa says he should. Don't agree Frankel won the Queen Anne by out staying them,he put in some electric fractions that killed the opposition dead. Imo if nathaniel had run in that race he would have been beaten a minimum of 12 lengths. GL anyway. |
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But what I am genuinely keen to know is how you came up with 20 lengths quicker.
FWIW I think Nathaniel will struggle to win purely on the proximity of his previous run and I can easily see Sea Moon or SNA winning. But of the three I think Nathaniel is the best horse. I wouldn't really like to choose between them and purely on price grounds have played Danedream as I believe she has the ability to win but is priced based on her last run |
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Nathaniels 2 Ascot times 1min 55 on G/s and 1min 54 on G/s(S) Sea moons Hardwick time on g/s 1min 49.
0.20 sec per length for 5seconds =25 lengths. The latest going stick reading for the round track is 5.7 ,compared to 7.3 when Nathaniel won last years KG. At the moment the ground is very soft and if the race was run today Nathaniel would imo be a worthy favourite. He's probably just as likely to improve from his last run as he is to go backwards. If the race was 1 week on you could be pretty sure Gosden would be saying he's come on from his Sandown race. Mid week last week it was difficult to believe the Magnet cup would be run on near Good ground and the July cup heavy. With the ground having a big impact on those results. Again the same scenario is developing where the ground will likely have a big impact on the outcome, but it's difficult to guage exactly what the ground will be. |
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Under those calculations, what allowance would you make for the 7lbs weight difference?
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Imo effect of weight depends on the size of the horse and strength of its back muscles to be able to carry it.
For some horses 7lb will probably have little effect whereas for others it could have a big impact. There is a general formula for the effect of weight on performance but cann't remember what it is. Hope this helps |
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The point I am making is that under wfa, Nathaniel carried the equivalent of 9st7 at Ascot and Sea Moon carried 9st. I'm sorry but that will make a difference to the time that any horse will run a distance in
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As regards imponderables, the jockey causes more consternation
than anything else, some seem to believe they are on PEGASUS, a recent example was the Eclipse, Buick and Gosden had worked out that NAT needed to be in the van ready to make a catch me if you can long run for home, meanwhile Dettori had depended on the pacemaker doing his job and so never covered the move by NAT because he was (about) 7 lengths back when the move was made, the energy needed to get to NAT was just too much, but remember this, FARRH had NEVER run in a group 1 prior to this and it was a better effort than I believed was possible. Another example was in this years OAKS, after a furlong Buick had THE FUGUE about 5th and no more than 5 lengths off the lead, about a furlong later he had allowed THE FUGUE to fall back to about 9 or 10 lengths back and about 10th place, at the cross from right to left he was badly hampered and then blocked in, once he had extricated her, the winner was making her way home and a huge amount of ground had to be made up to try and win. Dettori rode SNOW FAIRY in the IRISH CHAMPION STAKES and at a stage in the race, he had the opportunity to block SO YOU THINK in behind the pacemakerby going just a half a second sooner on his outside, she challenged for about 1 1/2 furlongs, but never got to SO YOU THINK, she would not have had a harder race than she actually did, IF ONLY. |
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Nathaniel very narrowly tops my ratings (1lb), but I'll be very surprised if he can run to his Eclipse form again so soon.
The groung might've come right for Sea Moon but is he good enough? He's definitely no Harbinger and imo he's not even a Conduit. He improved a few pounds on last year's form to win the Hardwicke but it was just a typical Gp2 winning performance. It's not impossible he could improve again but he's not for me. The stuff about St Nicholas Abbey not performing right handed is a total red herring as far as I'm concerned, he handled the Curragh well enough on his first 2 starts, winning his debut impressively and then a Gp2. I backed him for last year's KG, but in hindsight I believe his hard race against Midday temporarily bottomed him and that was the real reason for his subsequent below par efforts, which just coincided with them being on right handed tracks. There certainly didn't seem to be the same confidence behind him from Coolmore after last year's Coronation Cup, well not in the betting market anyway. I also don't go along with the theory that he doesn't handle soft. He handled it perfectly well on his debut, admittedly at a much lower level. He also gave his most impressive performance as a 2yo on good to soft in the RPT. I think O'Brien's soft ground explanation for the Mooresbridge Stakes display was more about excusing his son for an ill judged ride, although to be fair the ground was bordering heavy that day. I still think SNA has the potential for more improvement based on his ability as a 2yo, but even if he doesn't I reckon a repeat of his best form should be good enough here. He goes into the race much better prepared than last year and he's a confident bet. |
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Bazzar, Farhh had run in the Prince of Wales prior to the Eclipse.
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Thanks SINTONIAN, gets me back on track and trying to keep on top of my game,
miss winners when I lose the track. I think I might have got mixed up with the SEA MOON race, seems to be happening more these days aged 74, could this be the reason? As regards reading a race I prefer my own judgement, a story in RP this week tells of G. STARKEY trying to pull SWINBURN back, well I think I was the only one who saw him do a little pull on the right rein of his horse which bumped the french horse into STARKEYS stable companion and the other jockey bumped the rail and he was thrown off, yet he never , EVER was brought to justice, the FRENCH horse was disqualified and later went on to win a Champion Hurdle. That was in the Ascot Gold cup. |
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I make mistakes all the time Bazzar. I wouldn't worry about it! And i'm 31.
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Biggest laugh today, RYAN MOORE says that ST NICHOLAS ABBEY is best horse in the KING GEORGE 6TH AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES.
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he is the best hore, look at his wins!
if this was a lafthanded track he'd win, plain and simple. just back sea moon, gosdens wons see which way he went imo. |
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It is not a race to get dogmatic about imo SNA win in the US last year was brilliant
but the Horse he beat Sea Moon Looks like he has developed into a top 4yo and Nathaniel is massive on ground with the word SOFT in it , but the ground may be changing by the hour .I will be sticking with Nathaniel as he looks to have improved and a KG winner that has improved is hard to oppose .....interesting fact Frankel was ten weeks older than Nathaniel when they met as two year old's , half a length in it then on soft ground . The great paradox of race-form evaluation is never take form literally /always take form literally |
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ILWAB: "he is the best hore, look at his wins!
if this was a lafthanded track he'd win, plain and simple. just back sea moon, gosdens wons see which way he went imo"  IN ENGLISH PLEASE! Were you bladdered when you posted that? You're not usually so incoherent! I don't know if you mean St Nicholas Abbey or Sea Moon who is the best horse in the field, and at top form he wins the race I strongly disagree anyhow, as the above pair (at the best of their form) haven't shown as much as Danedream & Nathaniel in my view, though admittedly, there's little in it. I find it hard to believe that decent posters (like your good self) use phrases like 'plain & simple' in affairs as tight as this - I'm struggling to rule ANYTHING out, and although you'll be in bulk at my suggestion of Masked Marvel, I think he's excellent value (12/1 on here) to get the frame. He hasn't THAT much to find on his St Leger performance, but as Mac99 states...it really isn't a race to get too dogmatic about, as there are plenty of pros & cons about the field. |
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To my eyes SNA is just short of the very highest class and won't be good enough to win this.
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In these big races I trust past form, although there is
plenty of form to peruse I admit I cannot understand how some pieces of form are presumed excellent and similar pieces are overlooked entirely, whilst both in conjunction are the best guide to finding the winner, I have used my particular piece of logic and hopefully have got it right. |
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Good luck one and all!
 I am happy with my Sea Moon punt and may go in again tomorrow morning once the final ground/prices are known. The horse has won 5 times from 8 starts and has done nothing wrong in the process. An unlucky defeat in the Leger where Peslier got boxed in before finishing full of running, and then being beaten by a more forwards and tuned up 4yo St Nick on Firm going in the U.S is no disgrace at all. There is only one direction Sea Moon is going and that is forwards. |
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Nathaniel just beats Sea Moon for me with Black Panther getting third at very decent odds!
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Sea Moon may do a Harbinger and I'm sure Stoutey will have been aiming at this all year. But his sire Beat Hollow just dosen't produce top class horses.
Nathaniel is obviously good enough and if he'd come here fresh he'd be a banker but can he be 100% after the Eclipse. SNA ticks most of the boxes but his R/H affliction tempers enthusiasm somewhat. Deep Brilliante - won't stay on this stiff track on testing ground. Danedream I just don't like - she proved me totally wrong in the Arc and if she is in anything like that form she may do so again  .Dunaden - arguably unlucky last time and will appreicate it is it's a proper test. Should give a good account but something tells me he isn't quite classy enough. Reliable Man - the more I look at him the more I like him. Ground, trip etc should be fine and the jockey booking is another positive and at 28 on here he looks a decent play. Can't fancy the 3 rags though Brown Panther may run a place. |
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He has produced one though Uncle.
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class on the dams side, Sadlers Wells in the blood I believe.
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Going change .. round course is now Good to Soft.
Given this race goes off at 4.35pm tomorrow we could well be looking at Good ground by start time, it is forecast a dry day. I will therfore stick to what has been bet and place no more bets!  GL. |
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it was english paulme.
IF it was a left handed track on good ground sna would win. i will be surprised if anything can beat sea moon in this race and ive had my biggest bet this yr to find out. |