If Camelot bolts up on the bridle in the St.Leger (like he should do) what price do you guys figure he could drop to for the Arc?
There are some important trials the next day and the markets are gonna go ape-shít in the next few days.

I'm not so sure Roo...there is only ONE potential superstar to beat in the Arc and that possibility is Orfevre - the main dangers (as good as they are) are all exposed, and Camelot could hit something really silly.

If it happens, I'm gonna full bank lay (in the aftermath of the Leger) and I'm sure I'll have plenty of opportunity to trade out at higher odds, with (as you say) the doubts about his participation at Longchamp - that theory seems to be gathering a full head of steam with the doubters & conspiracy theorists...I'm certainly one of them

Over the last three decades or so, the colt (usually) that's perceived to be head & shoulders above the rest has been very short - all the horses below were at best 11/8 and quite a few were odds-on!

Troy, Dancing Brave, Mtoto, St Jovite, Generous, Montjeu, High Chaparral, Authorized, Zarkava, Sea The Stars - and that's despite it being REGULARLY the most competitive race of the year!

As much as I haven't took a shine to the colt, after Saturday, he could well be very short and rightfully belong in such exalted company.

Bazzar - I'm sure you noted I didn't include Deep Impact in that list because the Japanese made his Tote dividend insane!
He was a false odds-on shot, and if memory serves, around 100/30 was available on the day.

As for Danedream...as you know, the rest of her form isn't in the same league as that fantastic Arc win last year, even though she's continued to win.

Navel good luck with your approach, too fraught with danger if you ask me. If they make quite a quick decision before the market settles and you have a chance to trade, then you might find yourself left with quite a liability whatever the decision is.

I confess I don't understand the intricacies/margins etc of trading, I very rarely lay horses and only do so to either minimise a loss if I can or trade if can make a decent enough profit - ie trade Princess Highway if she wins well at the weekend.

So taking my ignorance into account, if you feel that Camelot will win well on Sat, would you not be better to back him now and then trade out afterwards when you feel the market will over react?

Roo - I don't necessarily think Camelot is a gimme on Saturday, but there's every chance he'll rout them!
As I said on another thread...I'm PLACE laying Camelot on Saturday!

The position I'm planning on taking (in the event of him bolting up) I think is a solid one, as even if he's confirmed afterwards as a definite for the Arc, in the frenzy of activity straight after a race, horses can hit silly prices (like Snow Fairy last week) before the market re-adjusts and gets back to normal.

Even with the confirmation (which I think will NOT happen as Coolmore are always indecisive after a race) I figure it would still bounce back out, and as I've always suspected they could whisk him off to stud unbeaten as a Triple Crown winner (making their usual excuses) and I might have ZERO liability!

Bottom line is...I think in the worst case scenario, I would lose very little (proportionally) if in the unlikely event that he didn't drift back out at some stage, and I could win a few hundred quid with this ploy - there's sure to be plenty of money for Camelot in the Arc STRAIGHT after the Leger if he wins, so I don't mind sharing my greasy technique with you all

Bazzar - sorry mate...I didn't get any of that!

Can you elaborate in ENGLISH please
What's a tyro?

You clearly cannot know as much as him because you've challenged how good Danedream is, how dare you not call her a superstar and perhaps suggest she is exposed?

Rozel I do hope you are right about Orfevre - what do you think he'll be after Sunday?

Oh is that it then?
Heresy regarding Danedream?

FWIW, there was no fluke about that performance last year and I thought she was brilliant!

My point is that Orfevre is probably the only 130+ performer that Camelot would have to beat (if he wins nicely on Saturday) and that's not being disrespectful to Danedream at all!

Orfevre scares the pants off me and I haven't got the balls to lay him, like I've done with everything else at some stage - I laid Danedream for over £100 at 7 yesterday, so as it stands, she's a loser for me to the tune of around £250 - it's my belief that she'll be bigger after the trials and I've put my money where my mouth is, because I can trade back at higher.

I can see why some would think Orfevre is still great value even NOW, as the field he has to beat in the Foy is nowhere near as strong as it was promising to be, and come Sunday, and impressive performance could see him pushing for favouritism, regardless of what Camelot does.

I was working on the basis Orfevre would get beat in the trial like most of the **** raiders do. They then improve massively for the run.

Has a **** runner ever won one of the recognised Arc trials?

Just been watching orfevre win the kikuka sho(japanese st leger)again
Now orfevre is not a small colt but the 2nd Wind variation came from last place to finish fast,is a huge beast.
don't want to disapoint the horse
Be interesting to know what he acheived subsequently.

rozel...i have a similar book to you having gone in at 9/1 again in hope of a decent trial run on sunday.

They won't wan't to leave the arc chances behind in a hard race but then again they won't want to disapoint the horse.

Personally i don't care now if he ends up fav after sunday,as i have more riding on this champion than anything i've backed previosly,including deep impact,which was a huge shock to my system when failing.
And i think most people on this thread also have already taken the huge value he was in the last couple of months.

I see orfevre as a terrible price. Would need a career best performance to win and not sure a long lay off followed by a canter in the foy (win or lose) is going to put him straight. Danedream has the form in the book and has won the 2 biggest 12f races in Europe this year w/o being fully tested.

That said, the killer stat for both in my book (and for all the other horse under 25/1 except Camelot) is that 15 of the last 18 winners have been 3 yr olds. Camelot can't be more than 50/50 to run and unless the Leger is much easier than expected, doesn't seem a great prep to running in the Arc. I think Alleged won after losing the Leger, but not too many have prepped successfully in that.

There are two (2)examples of the GOSDEN statement running today, I
will not point them out that is for you to think it out.
NAVEL.

If you say 10 older winners out of last 30 it's not so bad - especially when you consider most of the best horses don't race after 3. Hard to see a 3yo winner this year IMO unless it's Camelot or something sensational comes out of the Niel.

Trends don't win races, horses win races.

Both of those horses ran well without winning, one did not pick up a penalty for his intended target, the other did not mess up his handicap for his intended target,
handicap not yet announced.

yet he mentions the CESAREWITCH on the Cambridgeshire thread,....err no I didn't

I told him off ......hysterical

Unfortunately I now have to agree with bazzar. The 3yos do have a good advantage from the wfa allowance but Camelot aside, where is there one to challenge the older brigade? I have Princess Highway and Last Train but honestly unless something improves massively I cannot see it happening this year. Danedream does have a solid chance of repeating but granted soft ground I think Nathaniel will turn the tables and if not hoping the Japanese hype is fulfilled

When you mention the Eclipse, he thinks you mean the racehorse, not the race.

^ ^

And whatever happens tomorrow I can't see it being Camelots last race. He has plenty left to prove and Coolmore surely know it.