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**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
**************** L'Arc de Triomphe 2012 ****************
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Pete, Frankel has had a pretty unambitious campaign this season so I dont really see that changing now. Unless they always planned to go for the Arc at season end, but then why did they not give him an entry?
I strongly suspect it will be Champion Stakes, though im not betting on it like you. |
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I always felt that Frankel was so fast over a mile that he would not stay much further. But the way he sauntered home at York off a strong pace it's clear to me that if he runs in the Arc it would be a question of how far he wins.
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Thanks sint. It doesn't affect me a lot, the way I bet, but I love all the speculation
 I agree with that A_T. He was breathtaking. |
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NIEL
last train gb m.ps. 3 a. noble mission gb m.ps. 3 a. ashkiyr m.ps. 3 a. bayrir m.ps. 3 a. kesampour m.ps. 3 a. light heavy ire m.ps. 3 a. camelot gb m.ps. 3 a. david livingston ire m.ps. 3 a. encke usa m.ps. 3 a. energizer ger m.ps. 3 a. mandaean gb m.ps. 3 a. daddy long legs usa m.ps. 3 a. I HAVE A DREAM GB M.PS. 3 a. imperial monarch ire m.ps. 3 a. main sequence usa m.ps. 3 a. smoking sun usa m.ps. 3 a. thomas chippendale ire m.ps. 3 a. valdo bere m.ps. 3 a. pastorius ger m.ps. 3 a. saonois m.ps. 3 a. top trip (gb) m.ps. 3 a. remus de la tour m.ps. 3 a. yellow and green gb f.ps. 3 a. leaupartie (ire) f.ps. 3 a. VERMEILLE shareta (ire) f.ps. 4 a. bible belt ire f.ps. 4 a. snow fairy ire f.ps. 5 a. miss lago ire f.ps. 4 a. wild coco ger f.ps. 4 a. sarah lynx ire f.ps. 5 a. danedream ger f.ps. 4 a. dancing rain ire f.ps. 4 a. sapphire ire f.ps. 4 a. skallet f.ps. 4 a. la pomme d'amour gb f.ps. 4 a. galikova f.ps. 4 a. solemia (ire) f.ps. 4 a. shimmering surf ire f.ps. 5 a. pirika (ire) f.ps. 4 a. PREFERENTIAL GB F.PS. 3 a. romantica gb f.ps. 3 a. BRYANKA F.PS. 3 a. dalkala usa f.ps. 3 a. sagawara (gb) f.ps. 3 a. valyra (gb) f.ps. 3 a. yellow and green gb f.ps. 3 a. forces of darkness ire f.ps. 3 a. leaupartie (ire) f.ps. 3 a. twirl ire f.ps. 3 a. was ire f.ps. 3 a. salomina ger f.ps. 3 a. shirocco star gb f.ps. 3 a. vow gb f.ps. 3 a. sediciosa (ire) f.ps. 3 a. the fugue gb f.ps. 3 a. devotion ire f.ps. 3 a. coquet gb f.ps. 3 a. soon ire f.ps. 3 a. princess highway usa f.ps. 3 a. BEACH OF FALESA IRE F.PS. 3 a. great heavens gb f.ps. 3 a. ambivalent ire f.ps. 3 a. nobilis gb f.ps. 3 a. SYDARRA F.PS. 3 a. FOY sea moon gb m.ps. 4 a. fiorente ire m.ps. 4 a. SINGE THE TURF IRE M.PS. 4 a. st nicholas abbey ire m.ps. 5 a. meandre m.ps. 4 a. no risk at all m.ps. 5 a. calvados blues m.ps. 6 a. cavalryman gb m.ps. 6 a. laajooj ire m.ps. 4 a. monterosso gb m.ps. 5 a. treasure beach gb m.ps. 4 a. joshua tree ire m.ps. 5 a. nathaniel ire m.ps. 4 a. robin hood ire m.ps. 4 a. sans frontieres ire m.ps. 6 a. dunaden (fr) m.ps. 6 a. reliable man (gb) m.ps. 4 a. vadamar m.ps. 4 a. aiken gb m.ps. 4 a. orfevre jpn m.ps. 4 a. AVENTINO JPN M.PS. 8 a. shareta (ire) f.ps. 4 a. solemia (ire) f.ps. 4 a. |
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where you get those lists headmaster, niel , foy cards etc
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its highly unlikely Frankel will run in the Arc,owner has Last Train anyway and if he wins the Niel he will have every chance,true about Camelot prob not running either,if they win the TC with him he will be retired,as previous poster said plenty value out there if ya take them two out,personal preferences are Last Train and Valyra going on record of 3 yr olds in race,Imperial Monarch would be danger on heavy ground,as good as older generation are this yr I dont fancy any of them tbh
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Sea Moon a big price at 20-1 considering he won the Hardwick so well and went off at 2-1 for the King George. Didn't get the best of rides there but he's shown glimpses which suggest he's top class.
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Saint Baudolino misses Arc
The Godolphin-owned colt has never finished outside of the first three in seven starts to date and was only narrowly beaten by Aidan O'Brien's Imperial Monarch in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, having also finished runner-up in the French Derby at Chantilly. Last time out in the Prix Guillame d'Ornano at Deauville he ran out an easy winner, prompting Coral to introduce him into their betting for the Arc at 14-1. But Fabre said: "Saint Baudolino won't be running again this season. "Sheikh Mohammed sees him as the perfect candidate for next year's Dubai World Cup." Another recent winner trained by Fabre for Sheikh Mohammed's operation was Masterstroke, who fairly flew home to land the Grand Prix de Deauville, denying John Gosden's Gatewood in the process. Fabre said: "I don't know where Masterstroke will run next. "I need to check with Sheikh Mohammed and we will decide what is best for him." |
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Looks increasingly likely that Nathaniel is going to swerve this and go to Ascot on reading Buick's quotes.
A prominent runner with 10F form to my mind is perfect for the Arc, especially if he got softish ground. I find it strange they seem to want go down the Champion route. |
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Booster im coming round to the idea of backing Sea Moon aswell
 Horses beaten in the King George have a better record of winning the Arc than those who actually win it. Strange quirk.Barring my small change on Galikova & Princess Highway (Vermeille bound now confirmed by Weld) then there is not much else I fancy at the prices. |
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- really what did Sea Moon beat in the Hardwicke?I agree re Princess Highway, just hope its decent ground. Her and Speaking of Which ( what has happened to him ) would in fact be my biggest winners due to the prices on here |
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Two horses from the race have won since, Fiorente and Hunters Light. Dunanden solid yardstick imo.
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Well if ( a couple of 'ifs' here ) you consider Dunaden a solid yardstick and if you take all the form literally, using Thumbs up ( second in HK to Dunaden ) as formline through Rulership, Orfevre will beat him in a hack canter.
I might be interest in SM for a place if you can give soft going or worse. Good luck obviously if you do play.......just don't  |
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Not backed him yet, just looking through the markets.
 Danedream runs this weekend in Germany. |
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Danedream is obviously a very solid option just feel if Nathaniel had a bit more of a break after the Eclipse he would have beaten her. I see Meandre is giving her a swerve.
I know what you mean about looking at the markets as they are possibly going to change enormously over the next few weekends. With the weakness of this year's 3yos its hard to see much past the horses we already know quite a lot about - the trials may of course change all of that |
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Jakkalberry was also beaten in the Hardwick but won a Grade 1 at Arlington last time out and he was only rated 4lbs below Danedream prior to Ascot. My comment was that he's a big price which Danedream was at Ascot. He got a poor ride there but someone obviously thought he was up to it beforehand as he went off 2-1 so 10 times that price seems fair enough. He looked great at York in last year's Great Voltigeur and it's just possible that he runs 1 good race followed by a flat one and, if so, the Arc may be a good one and 20-1 value.
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No fair enough...beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 20/1 in soft ground is a fair enough price, but to my mind not necessarily value.
Not wanting to put a dampener on your 'good run, bad run' theory, won't he have a run first? See he has got an entry in the Prix Foy, would that not be where he would go? |
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Could be, but he'd be 7 or 8-1 if he won that in which case 20-1 would be a good price. Seriously I think they may want to see him run well first but don't see Camelot going for this if he goes for the Leger so a very open race otherwise.
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Workforce,same trainer, was almost stone last in the King George before heading straight to the Arc and winning. Like I said, horses beaten in the KG have a better record in Longchamp than the winner.
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Workforce was all out to beat Nakayama Festa. NF was a nice horse but not fit to lick Orfevre's shoes....
The Japanese horse turns up in-form and Frankel stays home, it's all over imo.... |
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Really? Is he that good? Everyone is talking about this horse and he does look good. I may add him at 16/1 on the adviso of everyone else to go with my pennies on the two fillies.
What if it is Soft ground, will Orfevre hand it? |
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Hope so!
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Orfevre camp pleased with first French work
BY JAMES BURN 9:23AM 29 AUG 2012 France: Orfevre, Japan's Horse of the Year who will bid to become the country's first winner of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in October, has pleased connections with his first workouts since arriving in France. The four-year-old, who is trained Yasutoshi Ikee, landed the Japanese Triple Crown last year, but was beaten on his first start of 2012. He suffered another reverse in April but returned to winning ways with a Grade 1 success at Hanshin in June and is around the 12-1 mark for the Longchamp showpiece. Orfevre travelled with stablemate Aventino and arrived in France on Saturday after a 30-hour trip from Japan. He is staying at the Chantilly yard of French-based Japanese trainer Satoshi Kobayashi and stretched his legs on Sunday before working on Monday. "It was a long trip," said Ikee, who trains the son of Stay Gold for Sunday Racing Co Ltd. "It took 30 hours from leaving Ritto Training Center, but Orfevre has had no fever since arriving so I'm relieved. He's a bit nervous but I think he'll settle down once he's gotten used to the new surroundings." Quoted on japanracing.jp, Ikee added: "The first time up, his work partner was slow and so Orfevre was a bit hesitant, but the second time up he seemed to be enjoying the gallop for the first time in a while. I'm happy with the work." Orfevre is set to warm up for the Arc by running in the Group 2 Prix Foy over the race's course and distance on September 16. Nakayama Festa was second to Workforce for Japan in 2010, while El Condor Pasa filled the same position behind Montjeu in 1999. |
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Have had to have a bet on Orfevre @ 16 due to the strong vibe going on in this thread - watched some of it's wins on You Tube and on it's day it's certainly an impressive beast.
I'm also still chipping away at Top Trip, currently at odds of over 200/1. Due to run in the Niel where he'll probably be staying on into 3rd/4th/5th again, but I'm praying for a heavy ground Arc.  |
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Orfevre has the same vibe to Danedream before last years win, in that he/she is being underestimated. I dont mind being a sheep at 16/1.
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Looks like Valyra is non runner!!!
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THE Aga Khan's Classic winning filly Valyra, fifth favourite for the Arc, has been put down after an accident on the beach at Deauville on Wednesday morning.
Racing manager Georges Rimaud said: "She was cantering on the beach and sustained a fracture to her off hind femur. We tried to find a solution to save her but one couldn't be found. Fillies play on the beach and it could happen at any time. It's a big blow." Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, Valyra started her racing career on April 14 and raced on just three occasions. She hit the big time with Johnny Murtagh when coming with with a late run to win the Prix de Diane Longines at Chantilly which was her last outing before her tragic death. She had been a general 12-1 chance for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. More to follow... |
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Sorry to hear that.
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Betting suspended now?
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Orfevre won the Japanese Derby on Soft Ground and it looked like it was heavy rain during the race as well! He powered home after getting sandwiched and then barged into coming around the final bend. Impressive!
This horse is a monster and I will feel as sick as a parrot if he doesn't run well. Glad to see him arrive in Chantilly safe and sound. 16-1 is massive price for a horse that has done some incredible things over the past couple of years. Time to go in again. Good luck all. |
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Sad news about Valyra
I laid her yesterday for a tenner at 17, and I left a back in at around 22 which was taken around 4pm today. As the fatality occurred this morning, surprisingly I've had that money returned to my account...anyone else? |
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Sad news about Valyra
I laid her yesterday for a tenner at 17, and I left a back in at around 22 which was taken around 4pm today. As the fatality occurred this morning, surprisingly I've had that money returned to my account...anyone else? |
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When a horse dies, Betfair establishes time of death and then voids all bets after that time.
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I suppose that very fair Pete, but it doesn't work the same way for injuries or withdrawals
Is this a practice they've been doing for a while? |
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I suppose that very fair Pete, but it doesn't work the same way for injuries or withdrawals
Is this a practice they've been doing for a while? |
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She looked a right tool when winning the Diane. Sad scenes.
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Really sad news
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Mr dinos you have touched on an aspect of japanese racing that deserves further mention..namely strong run races in big fields,also on courses mainly with short straights like longchamp.
Orfevre has handled them all with ease and unless encountering major inteference has the experience in big fields of weaving a wiinning path to victory,hopefully. |
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Spot on ribotman, Orfevre seems to thrive on the hustle and bustle of large Japanese fields. I get the feeling he's a horse who likes getting in amongst other horses and this will be a big plus in the Arc. I agree that he will need a fair dose of luck to weave his way through but I'd rather have a horse like him on my side than some of the others! He's a sturdy looking beast as well, looked in fine fettle at Chantilly.
I just hope Mr Soumillon doesn't **** it up on the big day with one of his kamikaze, no way through runs down the rail!!! To be fair to Soumillon he has got a good record in the race, another plus. It's been a long wait for Orfevre to come over and the Prix Foy will be fantastic viewing in few weeks, even though it's only a trial. |