Ribotman, I honestly believe erfovre will start favourite or 2nd fav after he wins the prix foy next month. Lot of punters not really wise to him until he runs in europe. 16/1 will look massive 3 weeks before the arc.

Afternoon all,

Bazzar, I know what you mean with regards your economics statement, I will come onto that.

Firstly, I think the majority of who have posted on this topic are in the opinion that if Orfevre turns up, gets drawn well, and is trying that he would hold a massive chance and is at the top of many shortlists selections for this year’s Arc.

At the currents prices of 16/1 I think the bet is well worth taking …but I wouldn’t go crazy at this stage, not because of the draw, but because of not being sure that the Arc being the main target. The track will definitely suit Orfevre and to be honest I don’t think the draw will matter simply because of its class and running style.

Just one of the videos of his races, im certain that he would have won by 5-6 lengths if it would have nearly stopped just before the stretch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T-RD0k3X30&feature=player_embedded#!
( if you want to forward then skip to 2mins 10secs) he loses 8 lengths by drifting due to the fault of the jockey after leading)

A page that has most of its important runs on video
http://www.thoroughbredchampions.com/showthread.php/8935-Orfevre%28JPN%29?s=3746ef135591c1c154830be493c8ac3f



With regards to probabilities, I just can’t see the alternatives that Orfevre would be aimed at if it wasn’t the Arc …Japan Cup maybe as it definitely stays 15f, but then I ask the question on why they would travel to Europe and plan to give the horse 2 runs in France?? I can’t think of a logical explanation or alternative reasons on why.

I can only conclude that the 16/1 seems a bit crazy if they intend to win the arc, I actually think the trainer is justified in having the opinion that whatever race they target with him that he is quite likely to win it. If it does run and gets the lead then i can easily see it winning like Sakhee did in 2001 (if it was spot on for the race), not because of its turn of foot but simply of its relentless galloping style.

It’s not as if they are ever going to get on at 16/1 in any other race he runs in across the world ……simply because the horse is well advertised across the USA,Aussie, japan etc and would definitely go off being the fav in those countries.

So to conclude the 16/1 is crazy, it’s so big it’s actually slightly worrying.

Anyway, you can’t be too mad if it doesn’t turn up and if you’ve already had a bet on Orfevre at this moment in time, it’s the best horse in the decs and from the experience I have with the Arc …I always say to bet on the best horse as it’s not that type of race where the best horse gets beat, just look at the last 10 years..the best horse has always won.

hmmm,

I'm not saying that i think it would swerve the race,im just thinking that if it runs in the race it doesnt categorically mean that its the horses target as the media would let us believe.

Your most probably right Akak within the reasoning ive given in my last post,however, im not completley convinced that it is the target for the horse, ive seen plenty of horses in the past being shouted out in the past by publicly outlining its long term target but to only realise that it has just been media talking bollocks.

obviously at this time i would definitly back it for the reasons given, but all im saying that sometimes these types of things look too obvious. I mean its like having Frankel being aimed at a mile race in Hong Kong and it being 10/1. its that is whats bugging me at this stage.

the more i look at the other entries it makes me think why am i just not piling in! and to be honest im occasionally thinking that im being too cautious , i probably shouldnt be given its ability.

If it does run in the Foy and flops then i would really contemplate piling in for the arc if it was a definite runner.

Im not going to have a grand on it at this stage , i cant have that doubt ..thats all.

OG.....i can't ,off the top of my head,recall any japanese horse stated the arc as target,and connections not go through with it,unless horse was injured in runup etc.

orfevre has not run since june and connections will not fly half way round the world for nothing.they are determined to win the arc one year.

It is obviously your business wether to have a bet,knowing the pitfalls of ante post,but you know how good he is reading your posts
and if you dither 16/1 will be history.

I'm pretty confident the only thing that will stop him lining up in october will be injury or sickness.

yeah, i cant disagree with you Ribotman,

I agree with you with regards to mostly everyone underestimating japanese horses as not being in the same class. im certain that Orfevre is the best hore in the race and ive just convinced myself to take more of the 16s.

Whislt we are talking about the Japanese horses, i just wanted to highlight some of my
thoughts on Japan as a country within the racing industry, the methodologies, ways of
thinking and ideals within their outlook etc. these ideals are important to take note of as it can actually help in assisting your betting choices with their runners if they turn up internationally.

Firstly, I’ve always been of the opinioin within the last 5 years that the Japanese will
begin to start dominating the highest class races around the world in some way or form
within the next 5-10 years, be it by owners or JPN breed horses.

My reasoning for this is self evident and doesnt need much explaining, if anyone does any research with regards to the mares and stallions they have purchased within the last few years its actually quite shocking , the main purchasers being corperations and the Yoshida brothers Northern Farms and Shadai Stud.

Here are Just some of the horses they have purchased recently, this is only a small number of them, there are many other grade 1 winners from all corners of the globe but i would be going on forever.


American Breed: Azeri, Topliner,I'll Have Another, Sahpresa, Ave


Australian Breed:Mosheen


English Breed: Harbinger, Workforce, Serious Attitude, Donna Blini, Elusive Kate,


German Breed: Danedream


French Breed: Stacelita,  Sarafina


Japanese Horses: Deep Impact,Buena Vista, Pop Rock, Victoire Pisa, Vermilion, Zenno Rob Roy, Heart’s Cry, Meisho Samson,Special Week

I believe that they are beginning to show the next step in racehorse breeding ,
If you just look at what they have done since 2005 is actually very impressive, the Japanese have a very methodical way of targeting a horse for a race and they dont do it very likely so on mathematical percentages of betting you would be lauging

All trainers in Japan actually collaborate with each other when it comes to targeting an international meeting, out of the hundreds of horses they narrow them down to a select few and train them accordingly, examples being the 1-2 in the 2005 melbourne cup and the 1-2 in the dubai world cup in 2011.


If you actually look at their horses in the paddocks they look a different type of animal, its strange to say but its almost as if there is something else to them if you can understand what i mean, long striding horses that look alot different in statue, what ive noticed is that the majority of them dont seem to have this explosive turn of foot as what you would normally see within horses like danedream etc but im certain that will change, but what nullifies this is their normal travelling pace which i believe is so much stronger that it doesnt seem to matter, its the travelling speed without looking they will stop. a great example of this is the 2011 Dubai world cup with Trancend and victoire pisa.

What i think is actually achievable ,given their documented training methods, in trying to breed the "Super horse", its where they extensivly sive out a few horses of say 200 2 year olds who have a closer disposition to a 3yo or 4yo, attitude & Scope.

I think this is more to do with the resources and the general attitude that the Japanese have towards racehorses rather than what you would traditionally get across europe, usa, and the uk, its this type of attitude together with their buying power which will surely have a bigger impact especially with their aggressive purchasing since the 2009 keeneland sales.

all the trainers and owners have said simply that they just couldnt turn down the offers, they are simply paying over the odds to get every group and graded winner they can.

Thank you og very interesting video-trainer of delta blues very sensitive of public interest.

ROZEL, you are doing a good job of depleting the odds in future races.

What a way to win! He'd p1ss up in most Arcs. Henry has to go for it.

Fast run 10.5f and didn't look to be stopping at the finish.

1/2 with a run available.

Forget all your bets, but it would be great to see him in France.

Agreed Pete. Would love to see him turn up for the Arc though I know my bets would be ruined.

However they are set in the ways and so it will be the Champion Stakes unforunately. That will make that race a bit of non-event - the Arc will be the one race that they will still turn up for including Orfevre

jeez, my jaw dropped when he cruised by SNA.

i dont normally get emotonional about horses , however, it might be hard to hold back a tear or two if it was to win the ARC , especially given Sir Henry's health situation.

I mean wtf, surely he cant win the arc ...can he?  to be able to just cruise around thos stretches and bends at longchamp and have that kick in the stretch and be able to last home??, if they go off at a mad pace as they usually do in the arc would he perform like he did this afternoon? thing is i just cant contemplate it happening , mainly becase it just seems unreal.

I knew Frankel was special, but is he that special, the worlds best ever horse or par with secretariat etc?

could he win everything from 7f to 1m4f,  im note sure if thats ever been done by a horse in its carreer??

again, im actually still in  shock at what ive just seen and more with what it would be like as a moment if he did go on and freaked us all out in longchamp.


if he goes over it will be off the hook, im def going so my fingers are crossed! i wouldnt care less if he beat my bets on orfevre ! lol

again, im actually still in  shock at what ive just seen

The image of him cruising up alongsides SNA will live long in the memory. You'd have thought he (SNA) was a second class
handicapper the way he was beaten.

If Frankel does not run in the Arc, whatever wins will have won by default. This horse is home and hosed, in any race the owner wishes to win.

What price on here if he was a definate runner?

I think a lot would depend on the going. If it was really soft they would not run him. Sir Henry will want to aim to get the horse right for a specifc day and uncertainty about what the going will be at Longchamps will put them off

I dont think HRAC is a big fan of the Arc. Not sure why. Ascot next is most likely destination.

This race appears to be wide open imo. Heading the market are two horses who may not even run, Frankel & Camelot. This is creating huge value elsewhere. So far I have had speculative bets from £8 to £20 on Princess Highway and Galikova at 100/1 and 150/1.

Galikova didn't look all that impressive last time out, but 3rd over 10f on quick ground is not what she wants. She was an 8/1 chance for the Arc last year after she hacked up in the Vermeille when it was very soft. IF it is soft this year she will outrun her odds for sure.

According to THOMMO, FRANKEL will NOT run in the ARC, but will run at ASCOT, he did not stipulate which race, however.

Whoever he is, he seems to have moved the markets for the Arc and the Champion Stks