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2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:

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Replies: 638
By:
themanwho
When: 17 Apr 12 01:12
Yes cruise, Bolger said manning felt Parish hall would have the speed for the guineas, and I get the impression it's a race Bolger would like to win after coming so close with New Approach.

If PH runs his price is massive. I also think Power's price is massive, I'd love both of them to go and back both at 25.... yes please.
By:
jamesp
When: 17 Apr 12 08:57
penzance
16 Apr 12 19:54
Joined:
when did Power meet with a setback?
must of missed that news.

After the racecourse gallops at the Curragh on 25 March Aidan O'Brien mentioned that POWER had "missed a little time after Christmas" but wouldn't give any details.  It was presumably something quite minor.

cryoftruth
16 Apr 12 21:31
i agree with the Nephrite stuff about his pedigree - he shouldn't get more than 6 furlongs.  Trouble is he already won (running on very strongly indeed) in a bog over 7 furlongs, so he has already proven that he has the same sort of stamina as that required to see out a mile on decent going.

What impressed me most about his two runs last year was his speed.  On debut he showed loads of speed over 6f on testing ground, always travelling well off a strong pace he cruised into the lead and won with plenty in hand.  Next time over 7f on yielding ground (it wasn't as testing as on his debut) he again travelled very well off a strong pace, made smooth headway to challenge for the lead and kept on well to win cosily.  I wouldn't conclude from that second performance that he is 100% certain to be as effective over a stiff mile on quicker ground in top company.  On the other hand, he did win over 7f on yielding ground and his trainer is sure that he will get a mile, no problem, even though his pedigree says no.  We shall see.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Apr 12 08:58
Lots of rain down south at the moment. You might want a horse who handles a bit of cut at the Craven meeting.
By:
BJG
When: 17 Apr 12 11:26
Abtaal trainer said he needed the run very badly ben


This is the one that makes him a massive player, his defeat of French Fifteen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iCZHomuieI



Sayin that he is out to over 30 on here ScaredPlain
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Apr 12 11:41
Camelot back out to 5.6 on here, fwiw.

These markets fluctuate all the time .. so difficult to taken anything seriously unless the money is sustained.
By:
Madhu
When: 17 Apr 12 23:38
Mighty Ambition goes on Guineas trial in Craven

Timeform- highly encouraging debut, looking a class act as he cruised before asserting for just hands-and-heels pressure entering the final 1f, idling a shade in front but always in full control; he certainly looks the part, a strong, well-made individual, and it's promising that one bred for middle-distances showed so much speed on debut.

Racing Post- it was impossible not to be impressed with the winner. Despite being by Street Cry out of a 1m2f Group 3-winning sister to Islington, he travelled so easily over this 7f trip and could be called the winner from some way out. It's true he found only a brief burst of acceleration once asked, but it was enough. Had he quickened away in the manner that had looked likely it's no exaggeration to say he'd be prominent in the ante-post betting for the Derby. He wasn't even quoted immediately afterwards, but his lack of end-race speed shouldn't be held against him considering both his pedigree and sizeable physique mean he's not made for what turned into a dash. It's early days to be thinking about Epsom, but he looks like being pretty smart over further as an older horse and it might not be a bad idea to try and get him on side.

Mahmood Al Zarooni: "Mighty Ambition won his maiden very well and will appreciate the step up to a mile. We are looking forward to getting a run into him so we can see where we are.

"Hopefully, the race can be a stepping stone in the right direction. He has done well through the winter and I have been pleased with his training. He will improve for his seasonal return but we are hopeful that he can run well."

If he puts up a classy performance against a Craven field that includes the major gamble Much Improved, he will obviously become a great deal shorter in the 2000gns market, and possibly favourite if news comes out Camelot is going miss the race. Frankie rode Much Improved in the Dewhurst so he knows what type of horse Godolphin is up against, and I think after the Craven they will know exactly where they are.

Unearthing a horse ante-post is passionate obsession for all of us, and especially so for me if one goes against the tide. Backing at long odds and laying off bits and pieces to extend your odds and reduce your stake is an art, and it is all down to Betfair.  We should all bee truly thankful.

My bubble is not burst yet, and may bee it will rise high in the sky
By:
roobuck
When: 18 Apr 12 07:07
Good luck madhu - great time of year
By:
thornton reed
When: 18 Apr 12 10:36
Does anyone have any thoughts on Crius? Doesn't have the sexiest profile but has pretty solid form and I think he has an outside chance. Stable second string tomorrow judging by jockey bookings but I think he's worth a bet at big prices for the 2000.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Apr 12 12:09
I've backed Mighty Ambition for the Craven @ 12/1 - seemed better value than chancing him at 40/1 for the Guineas
By:
sinfin
When: 18 Apr 12 13:19
brontere just matched at 140 so he must b doubtful
By:
BJG
When: 18 Apr 12 13:42
Any news on French Fifteen or Abtaal today - both supported on here today
By:
roobuck
When: 18 Apr 12 17:36
Mighty Ambition's form franked by Model Pupil
By:
blackbarn
When: 18 Apr 12 18:45
Abtaal not confirmed yet, but is very likely to come. Is clearly Hamdan's best chance in the race unless Ektihaam or Aljamaaheer run out of their skins on Friday.

Actually I really like the latter Varian horse, but still surprised to see it cut to 20's for the Guineas (100 available on here). This one's Friday entry is a 3yo handicap! Not your traditional route.
By:
Madhu
When: 18 Apr 12 22:51
Mighty Ambition, a Newbury maiden winner who has been impressing trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni in his homework.

"He is a nice horse who won nicely first time out last year and I think he is a stronger horse now,'' he said.

"His last piece of work was very good, I was very happy, so we will take him to the track and find out how good he is.

"He is entered in the 2000 Guineas and could go there if he can run a big race on Thursday.

"At this time of year you do not understand your horse's capabilities 100%, so you need to run them to find out.

"You cannot sit at home and say 'this is a good horse' forever. You have to run them and then you know for sure.''


I'm starting to think 'I gotta Horse'!
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Apr 12 01:00
As a purely speculative play I quite like CRIUS in the Craven (and at around 90 for the Guineas).  If the Meehan horse is as good as everyone seems to think, he'll probably hose up tomorrow, but CRIUS was a good progressive horse last year and doesn't have a lot to find on the book.  The form of his Gr.3 win worked out nicely: the runner-up went on to finish placed in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, the third chased home CAMELOT in the Gr.1 Racing Post Trophy, the fourth subsequently won the Gr.1 Middle Park Stakes, and the fifth went on to win a Listed race quite easily next time (with Feilden Stakes winner Stipulate beaten 4 lengths in third).
By:
thornton reed
When: 19 Apr 12 10:56
Glad to hear that I'm not the only one James. Can't understand why he is so big to be honest.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Apr 12 11:20
Obviously his task today is made easier by the absence of MOST IMPROVED...
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Apr 12 11:25
Current going at Newbury is Soft, not ideal for the Guineas trials this weekend.
By:
geoff m
When: 19 Apr 12 15:11
Good call James had a nibble myself.
Race could fall apart Camelot/Most Improved doubts ?
Hannon 3 yr olds on fire.
By:
elisjohn
When: 19 Apr 12 16:28
parish hall/power surely massive prices now if turning up, after that craven perf  ,
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Apr 12 16:31
Trumpet Major hacking up makes it even more galling Most Improved was lame today.

12/1 eachway about the winner is a fair price imo. Would prefer it slightly quicker aswell.
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Apr 12 16:35
Well, I wasn't expecting that!  Betting, jockey bookings and pre-race comments by the trainer all suggested that there wasn't much to choose between TRUMPET MAJOR and CRIUS.  The winner has clearly done well over the winter and may well turn out to be better than the horses he finished behind in the Dewhurst, where he was unlucky in running (RP commentary: "Held up in touch, squeezed for room and lost place 4f out, plenty to do and switched right 2f out, headway under pressure over 1f out, kept on well inside final furlong, not reach leaders.", RP analysis: "Having lost his place at around halfwayhe was left with an awful lot to do before finishing strongly out widest. Johnny Murtagh reported the colt suffered interference in running.")
By:
elisjohn
When: 19 Apr 12 16:38
im expecting bronterre to hack up in greenham now, top offer running or not
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Apr 12 17:16
As well as he won, I am in no rush to back TM at 12s even though I would have expected him to be shorter. Can't really explain it, but just looked a pi55 poor race
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Apr 12 17:34
A real shame that Harbour Watch isn't going to be ready
By:
tinkler
When: 19 Apr 12 17:41
RP webite re TRUMPET MAJOR .The trainer's son and assistant Richard Hannon jnr said: "We are very pleased. We didn't think he could win a Craven under a 3lb penalty and didn't know if he would like the ground.

"I thought he was running horrible for a moment but Ryan got after him and he's done it very well."

He added: "He's had only one racecourse gallop, about ten days ago, and he'll definitely improve."
Moore told Racing UK: "He's twice the horse he was last year, he's really done well over the winter and he's filled out.

"They went a good gallop and the field was sorted out by halfway. He probablyhit the front too soon but it was a good performance."

He added: "He'll definitely have a chance in the Guineas but there may be a horse with a bit more foot in there. He might improve as he goes further."
By:
jamesp
When: 19 Apr 12 17:45
The Craven certainly lacked strength in depth, but so does the Guineas at this stage, so 12/1 looks a fair price.  Interestingly, T1meform now rate him 121, which makes him the top-rated colt going into the Guineas (above Camelot) unless the Greenham throws up an equally impressive winner.
By:
tinkler
When: 19 Apr 12 17:50
I really liked this performance from Trumpet Major , he showed an excellent attitude and clocked a decent time.
He looks quite a small horse but looks to a strengthened up a fair bit. The doubt I'd have is that this race could
have gutted him and that he won't have enough time to recover for the Guineas. 12/1 still looks a little bit over priced
and I've had something on ,estimating his true price to be 8/1.
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Apr 12 18:44
TalesOfGrimm looked real promising on debut but it's hard to fancy at the moment, particularly for the Greenham, until Stoutey has a winner or two imo. No winners so far this season and several fancied ones went out like lights the past two days.
By:
zilzal1
When: 19 Apr 12 18:48
His 3yo's often need the run though, his better record early usually comes from the older ones
By:
MrWilts
When: 20 Apr 12 02:12
Would be inclined to take today's result with a pinch of salt. Craven not a terrific producer of Gunieas winner's. Only four since 1980. Better than the Racing Post, 1 in 41 years, though.
Would like to have seen Most Improved just to see if the support is justified. Will be holding on to may cash for a little longer.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 20 Apr 12 10:26
Peslier confirmed for French Fifteen.
By:
thornton reed
When: 20 Apr 12 10:29
Crius won't be winning that's for sure. I was very impressed with Trumpet Major. I'd definitely have him down as a contender given how poor it's looking at the moment.
By:
zilzal1
When: 20 Apr 12 10:37
Was that his Guineas though?? dont know if i can have a Dewhurst runner for me when they all finish in a heap

It would be ironic if after Canford, **** Turpin, Harbour watch et al that Hannon ended his classic drought with this onePlain
By:
The Headmaster
When: 20 Apr 12 11:14
Nephrite alive and well, it seems.
By:
stevo1
When: 20 Apr 12 11:21
What you heard re Nephrite massive drifter on here last few weeks, French Guineas?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 20 Apr 12 11:26
Runs at Curragh on Sunday.  I've already had a dig but would advise a small go at the 30+ on here.  Lads have never budged from their 8/1.  Surely a win on Sunday throws his hat firmly in the ring?
By:
stevo1
When: 20 Apr 12 12:01
Yeah i backed him few months back think when he about 25s, given up any hope since then as no word from trainer surprise! Noticed price with Ladbrokes have left him at 8s for weeks whilst drifting elsewhere.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Apr 12 12:19
Way too much emphasis put on this ''shortest with Lads'' theory imo. Sure, they were right with Camelot last season in the RPT,  but they're bound to get one right sooner or later, they have to, they're a bookmaker.

If you read into prices that much then they are shortest on Tales Of Grimm, as indeed they always are for SMS runners. Every year.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Apr 12 12:21
Just a recent example of how comical the theory is .. Binocular was their one to duck vs HF in the Champion Hurdle, they were bottom price of 9/2 for the precedding 3weeks whilst the general price was 6 amd some 7/1. As we know Bino was unplaced.
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