Cannot argue with that sint, great pick.

Have you laid it all back or have you left yourself a free bet?

Sorry Penz, should have been 3 years.

Have Tales of Grimm, Solar Deity and Aljamaaheer at long odds in ante-post portfolio but for me Mighty Ambition is the one- it was impossible not to be impressed first time out. Timeform-Strong, well-made colt: third foal: half-brother to 1m/1½m winner Sadeek's Song (by Kingmambo): dam, 1¼m/1½m winner, sister to smart performers Greek Dance (best at 1¼m) and Islington (at 1¼m/1½m): 9/2, created good impression when winning juvenile maiden at Newbury by ¾ length from Rewarded, travelling strongly and idling final 1f: will stay 1¼m: sure to improve. MIGHTY AMBITION (USA) (by Street Cry out of a smart 1¼m/1½m winner, herself a sister to 1¼m winner Greek Dance and 1¼m/1½m winner Islington) is bred to be Group class and could easily prove to be just that on the basis of this highly encouraging debut, looking a class act as he cruised before asserting for just hands-and-heels pressure entering the final 1f, idling a shade in front but always in full control; he certainly looks the part, a strong, well-made individual, and it's promising that one bred for middle-distances showed so much speed on debut. Godolphin need to make Street Cry a proper sire, so 2000 Gns following the Craven means all roads lead to Newmarket. Have taken everything available since last year. Good luck to everyone.

Nephrite not declared. Puzzled ny this one...

Some of these aren't actually money gambles. I say this because i remember Workforce be slashed across the board, and also the Charlie Hills horse last year. People in these yards are hardly going to back a horse that doesn't even turn up.

I'm firmly in the French Fifteen camp for the 2000 Guineas but Nick Mordin's views on the outcome of the Prix Djebel are interesting.

Nick Mordin (Posted 9 April 2012)

FRENCH FIFTEEN AND ABTAAL PUT UP GREAT GUINEAS TRIALS

Thanks to being run on a straight course, the Prix Djebel is a better trial for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket than for the Poulains (French 2000) at Longchamp. In fact over the last twenty years nine horses that ran first or second in the Prix Djebel have gone on to run in the 2000 Guineas. Three of the nine won (Zafonic, Pennekamp and Makfi).

The Prix Djebel was a red hot race this year. It may well produce the winners of the British, French, German and Italian 2000 Guineas. It featured raiders from Britain, Germany and Italy but developed into a match between the two top colts in France, FRENCH FIFTEEN (40) and ABTAAL (40).

Abtaal is a very good looking horse that impressed me greatly when beating French Fifteen on his final start at two. But I suspected he might be given an easy race in the Prix Djebel, just like many top class horses in French Classic trials.

This is exactly what happened. Abtaal was always moving better than all his rivals. But his jockey never rode him hard and only gave him a single slight tap with the whip during the whole race. French Fifteen on the other hand was scrubbed along vigorously from halfway and received three sharp cracks of the whip from his rider. He ended up edging out Abtaal by a neck.

French Fifteen had the benefit of racing in company down the middle of the course while Abtaal ended up being isolated down on the rail. My feeling is that Abtaal might well have won, despite not being seriously ridden, if he'd been able to race alongside French Fifteen.

French Fifteen clocked a time a tenth of a second slower than the fillies in the Prix Imprudence but covered the last half mile 0.8 of a second faster. My sectional timing formula says that makes this a seriously good Group 1 performance by both him and Abtaal and worth a rating of 40 for both.

For comparison here are the other colts that have earned ratings of 40 or higher from me in Guineas Trials since 2003:

Canford Cliffs........................41

**** Turpin...........................41

Frankel................................41

Naaqoos..............................40

Le Havre..............................40

Refuse To Bend....................40

Naaqoos went wrong. But the other five all went on to win Group 1 races.

Abtaal may well be a better horse than French Fifteen. But French Fifteen put up one of the best Guineas trials we've seen in the last decade here. He clearly had trouble with the quickening pace at halfway as he lost quite a bit of ground. He didn't look that comfortable with the near sprint finish either and seemed to have trouble staying balanced and coordinated at the pace he was travelling. He hung left about a furlong out and hampered British raider Rockinante. But mostly I think this was because he was wanting to get across to run next to the rail like many horses prefer (especially inexperienced ones).

If French Fifteen hadn't bumped into Abtaal and run second in one race at two this would have been his seventh win in a row. In that loss French Fifteen pulled hard and raced with his head too high. The application of a sheepskin noseband seems to have corrected that problem, though he's obviously still a little hard to steer.

French Fifteen was purchased recently by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Khalifa Al Thani who sponsors the British Champions Series through his company Qipco. Clearly the Sheikh's aim was to find a suitable horse for the first leg of the series, the 2000 Guineas. This run says he's certainly achieved that objective.

The 14-1 you can get about French Fifteen for the 2000 Guineas looks way too big to me. I very much doubt that we'll see a better performance in a Guineas Trial than this.

If you want something to worry about it is the fact that there are several indications French Fifteen may prefer longer than a mile. His pedigree suggests ten furlongs would be better. And the way he got outpaced then stayed on strongly in the Prix Djebel points the same way. Finally there is the fact he ran twice over a mile at two - something only two 2000 Guineas winners have done in the last fourty years (Dancing Brave and Frankel - two of the very best winners in that period).

On balance though it's hard to get away from the fact that French Fifteen put up a Group 1 class performance in the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs despite a slightly slow early pace and near sprint finish. Over the extra furlong of the Guineas it's hard to argue he won't reproduce this level of form or even better it.

Runner up Abtaal was turned a little sideways just over a furlong out and stumbled slightly as a result when the very green Al Malek bumped into his back end. Clearly he did not have the run of the race.

Previously I'd thought that Abtaal might need to go up to middle distances as he's such a strong, muscular sort. But I remember thinking the same about his sire Rock Hard Ten and that one ended up cutting back to seven furlongs to win the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes in California (though he also stayed ten furlongs as I think Abtaal will).

The acceleration that Abtaal showed on his final 2YO start and the ease with which he coped with the quickening pace here tell me that he has no problem going seven furlongs or a mile.

Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget says that the 2000 Guineas is not ruled out for Abtaal. But his connections must be acutely aware that their horse will start a warm favourite for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains with his only serious rival French Fifteen heading to Newmarket. I'd love to take the 20-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Guineas but the percentage play is to shoot for the French race.

I liked the way that HERMIVAL (38) picked up strongly late to chase the first two with enthusiasm while pulling nearly three lengths clear of the rest. This muscular, well proportioned sort had won a hot mile maiden at Saint-Cloud on his previous start and clearly has a good deal of ability. His connections are also considering a shot at the 2000 Guineas and I can't rule him out of consideration on this run which would have won most Guineas trials.

Fourth placed ROCKINANTE (36) is a pretty big, good looking sort. He got to the lead two furlongs out but was tiring when the winner cut across him with a furlong to run and forced him to be checked. He won a Group 3 over a mile at two, but his physique and the speed he showed here makes me think his assistant trainer's suggestion of the seven furlong Jersey Stakes as a target is spot on. Then again he may simply have blown up through lack of fitness. In which case the option of the Italian Guineas also mooted by his assistant trainer looks good too.

Fifth placed AL MALEK (36) is a big, muscular, mature, classy sort that looks built to produce serious speed. He was sweating and rather keen in the early stages but was still moving strongly at halfway. He got unbalanced and hung rather badly from two furlongs out, drifted right across to the rail and ran into the back of Abtaal. Then he picked up again nicely in the final furlong when he had the rail to guide him.

Al Malek won a maiden on Deauville's Fibresand on his sole two year old start then romped home by thirteen lengths at Krefeld on his 3YO debut. My thinking is that he's probably going to be best, at least for now, around relatively tight turning courses like those because they enforce some kind of restraint. He pulled too hard and ran all over the place when seeing the big wide open spaces of Maisons-Laffitte's straight course here. This being so he looks a very good prospect for the German 2000 Guineas at Cologne, one of the tightest tracks in Germany.

Fallen, it's on youtube......


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgBAG_7zk7M

anyone with news on bronterre? the 40s is massive on here if this is the plan. he was very free to post in the dewhurst and free in race itself. beaten just over a lenght or more. i remember before dewhurst hannons and hughsies were very bullish. he beat good horses so easily in goodwood before dehurst.

Nephrite, looks like this one is out of the guineas. GET ON THE CAMELOT.

Totally agree Geoff and purely talking through my pocket.

Will cry if they keep him for the Poulains.

Will wail buckets here Jair.

essexguy, where did you hear about Nephrite?

Understand jamesp. And your comments are always given maximum respect.

But I'm not convinced that anyone, even Aidan, knows the precise plans at the moment. Camelot looks more like a Derby horse on breeding and the comment from Aidan the other day makes me doubt that they'll take the St Nicholas Abbey route again. With Power having had a setback earlier in the year, and there's still room for another Newmarket Guineas candidate (or two) to come from the stable. In my book, Nephrite would be not far off favourite if he went to post (without Camelot obviously).

What we must remember with this lot is that the Irish classics mean as much if not more to them.

My thoughts are that if a horse doesn't run in a trial but is aimed at a Classic, they believe it to be classic material. The horses they run in a trial they want the horse to prove itself.

The danger with any horse they aim at either the 1000 or 2000 as their first run is that it may need it. But ususally it will turn out to be a pretty decent animal and may well run to its potential in the Irish equivalent.

No doubt in my mind Power is their best 3yo colt for 1 mile this season. He was campaigned as a Guineas horse, won the Coventry stakes which has been pretty good the last few years, and the last time they won it was with Henrythenavigator.

If Power is not ready for HQ, he might run anyway and then go back home and win the Irish version. He's going in my TTF list.

Tascro Joined: 03 Dec 11
Replies: 86 15 Apr 12 13:39 
anyone with news on bronterre? the 40s is massive on here if this is the plan. he was very free to post in the dewhurst and free in race itself. beaten just over a lenght or more. i remember before dewhurst hannons and hughsies were very bullish. he beat good horses so easily in goodwood before dehurst.

Hannon's only entry in the Greenham...a race he has used in the past for some of his decent Guineas hopes.

jamesp
when did Power meet with a setback?
must of missed that news.
cheers.

Not been paying much attention to the 2000 with everything else going on. Surely Parish Hall is the value atm? Looks a cracking price to me, Bolger is going OK and has confirmed Newmarket as it's first target or at least he did at the turn of the year. Surely Meehan talking up his horse is not worth the price difference between the two?

Agreed. However the jock felt he had the pace to be a live contender at the 2000. It looks good value although as you say they were meant to be running if it wasn't soft at the weekend. It's just the sort of bet that appeals to me though, if one of Ballydoyle's had won the Dewhurst beating that field it'd be mid single figures. It's not like Bolger is without a clue in the big races is it?