Horse Antepost
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2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:
2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:
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I'm not saying Nephrite is no good, merely his trainers actions regarding this race are a bit worrying.
I'll row in with the theory that he's quite likely to end up somewhere that isn't Newmarket too... |
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I think it's more than likely that he'll go over to France, but if he wins impressively they'll surely be tempted to run at Newmarket if the ground is on the easy side, especially if POWER is not quite back to his best...
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Tinkler,
trainer stated after Djebel that Newmarket was his preference for Abtaal. He also warned before the race that Abtaal was unlikely to equal the rating of his previous run. He said after the race that he was only 85% fit for his comeback. If what he is saying is true and based on his run in the Thomas Byron, then there is no other horse I would rather be on for the Guineas than Abtaal. |
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Thanks for the info Beryl. Imo The Thomas Byron performance looked the performance of a potential star, the horse appeared to travel
well and showed a sharp turn of foot. A very powerful looking horse he should be ideally suited by The straight Rowley mile. The Djebel performance was a touch disappointing for me ,but as you say it sounds like he was unfit and I'd be expecting a lot of improvement from that. (zafonic got beat in the same race before winning the guineas) Have a small bet on him already but am looking to place a significant bet if connections confirm him as a runner. Estimated true price for Abtaal if he lines up at Newmarket 4/1. |
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Beryl, that is why I have had a win bet on him at 20's. Given the way Abtaal destroyed French Fifteen when they met as 2yo's, it is hard to believe he was anything more than 80% fit for the Djebel.
Not sure how he would act on GoodtoFirm,though. |
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And you have the same name as my mum.
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 All over him |
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I like and respect Abtaal as a 2000 Guineas contender but I can't believe how many people are banging on about his Thomas Byron win like it was the second coming of Pegasus. Visually it was was impressive but when you look at it more closely Maxime Guyon set very slow early fractions and had a very easy uncontested lead. There was only going to be one winner dictating the race at that pace and then throw in the fact French Fifteen pulled very hard for a long way makes the 3 length victory over FF exaggerated.
The performance that day was not French Fifteen's true running which Nicolas Clement stated before his Criterium International victory. FF won that Group 1 race like it was a piece of work. The pace should be a lot stronger in the 2000 Guineas than the Thomas Byron and if it is I don't think Abtaal will be destroying FF again. Abtaal shouldn't have a problem with Good to Firm ground being by Rock Hard Ten, fast ground turf pedigree! |
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Hermivel,is he an intended runner?
cheers. |
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Delzangles revealed this week that HERMIVAL is 'likely' to head for the 2000 Guineas and added, "He has improved a lot for his run in the Djebel and he should run well."
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tx
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BORN TO SEA's price has settled back to where it 'ought' to be. There was nothing untoward in the betting patterns, in my opinion, just the normal fluctuations. In any case, the amounts of money involved were insignificant. John Oxx has made it clear that his colt would go straight to the Guineas.
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Looks like Tales Of Grimm will miss the Guineas unless the owner is adamant it runs. Stoute not keen on running without a run
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The Newbury trials have offered nothing. This Soft ground has been a bit of a nightmare for Top Offer and TOG fans.
I am hoping for a positive bulletin re Most Improved, as the race looks like it may only be 10 runners or so, in which case he could go there first time out. |
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Most improved drift seems to occur much later after the announcement was made. I agree market suggesting very few certain runners only 12 horses in double figures or shorter and not even all of them are certain to run. O'brien must know by now if Camelot is going to the Guineas with the race only two weeks away the plans will surely be concrete. Would expect a few more noises over the week
completely agree that the soft ground has made the picture even more confused than b4 |
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There's one horse in this race that no-one's talking about that could absolutely hammer the field IF he showed up imo.
Guess we'll know more on Tuesday. |
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Now my book is in pretty good shape....not sure what you mean by that TH
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Abtaal 12/1 on here .. never realised he was that well backed.
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If Abtaal runs think he will go off around 5/1 assuming Camelot runs.
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5-1 Abtaal would rival 5-1 Most Improved in the shocking valoo steaks.
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I wouldn't put too many ahead of ABTAAL if (when imo) he turns up.
Personally I think fast ground for him would be a positive, although that seems unlikely atm. |
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Ok possibles/most likely runners. More than I first thought.
Camelot Trumpet Major Most Improved (if OK after being lame) French Fifteen Abtaal Top Offer Power Born To Sea Parish Hall Hermival Fencing Red Duke ? Bronterre Lets add 2 rags for good measure So i'd say 15 or so. |
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Can't see Bronterre running.
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Are we sure there'll be absolutely no Godolphin involvement in this race, sint? Bloody poor show if that's the case.....although I wouldn't put it past them to pull something off the shelf.
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Yes I cant see how Abtaal would be any lower than 8/1 tbh. He has no Group 1 form.
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I dont know what they have for the race HM. Perhaps they could run one of their Derby horses ..
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Perhaps they could run one of their Derby horses ..
Indeed. |
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Mandaean or Swedish Sailor...mmmm
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Or one of their perceived Derby horses anyway.
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It rather went under everyone's radar, Stakey, but did you know those boys in blue put MANDAEN in the Irish 2000 at the second entry stage a week or two ago? Now why would they do something like that for this supposed 12f colt?
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It would have to be Mandaean if any imo. 2/2 and a Group 1 winner.
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Interesting to know. Thanks TH.
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I don't think his pedigree is screaming 12f. Just the type to get away with a softish ground Guineas before moving up to 10f.
Wouldn't wish to get anyone too excited though as there's nothing coming from the barn and he's a short price to not make it through the scratching stage on Tuesday, I suppose. |
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.....and the yard are stinking the house out at the moment too.....
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Mandaen won at 10f on heavy as a 2 y/o. The odds on him running should be higher than the odds of him winning.
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 'Tis true. Although he did have the race won at 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10f Graeme. Not like he needed the full ten to get on top? ......and if it's good enough for a son of Montjeu is it not good enough for a Manduro iyo? |
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whatever they say, cant see the 3 french horses turning up on the day.less than 2 weeks to go and yet no news from coolmore on 1000/2000, poor show indeed
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Why don't you think they'll all show up, ej? All on target as far as I know.
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I would think all 3 of the french horses will run
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MD's confirmed Hermival, Clement's booked Peslier for FF, and everything points to Abtaal running, although just waiting on the green light there. I think they'll all run too.
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