Is 5/2 a fair price about Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle?

If you've got 12/1 on him I'd be happy.

But I cant possibly say 5/2 is the right price.

Maybe on the day but not 3 months before.

RP and us punters look at it form a betting point of view (i.e. value) - the Jockeys are just asking themselves if they think they can beat him and none of them have a horse thats likely to be able to do that imo so they therefore see him as the winner.

He looked awesome. I dont think that peddlers gave his true running tho, anything round 6s for him is a great price i think.

flip the question on it's head .. do you want to Lay the 5/2 ?

If all the msin protsgonists pitch up on the day fit and both Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross have proved their well being meantime, he can't go off a lot, if any shorter on the day. At the moment he is lousy value because he has to get there.

He didn't get up the hill in the Supreme mainly because he was weak -hence Hendo's reluctance to run. He will have developed a lot physically since March last year.

Hype has surrounded him since the day he set foot on a racecourse. If Geraghty has spun his weighing room mates the same line as he has blogged elsewhere that he is the best novice he has sat on since Moscow Flyer, no wonder the jockeys think he will be hard to beat!

for BG to say its the best horse he has sat on including Moscow Flyer and Kicking King then the potential of the horse has to be taken on trust but at this moment he is all potential, though to be fair there is a tonne of it, i have backed Menorah at 22-1 and im very happy with that, the big day can also have an influence on horses, i had sprinter sacre at massive prices for last years festival and felt good going into it but it never haappened, 5-2 is not value, the fences will see to that and also the pace of the arkle can get horses in trouble, he may very well win but you will get bigger than 5-2 in running for sure, he only has to hit one fence

gold cup i watched the interview with nick luck after the horse own the other day and he said it was the best horse he had sat on, nick luck then pressed him about this and mentioned both Moscow aand Kicking King and his opinion on sprinter remained the same, he had the chance to say the others where better but he didnt do it, of course he can only be talking about potential as moscow is an all time great and sprinter would do wonders to achieve half of what he did

i do think he's value at the current price. he's looked the only out and out two miler of all the novices so far imo, and i think he can do them all for speed. he didnt beat anything on chase debut, but it was such a great performance. clever, spring heeled jumping. peddlers wasnt suited to kempton and made a bad blunder, but he beat him like he was a 140 horse.

i dont like CH horses going chasing and peddlers is apparently stepping up in trip now anyway. i dont think he'll be winning at the festival wherever he goes, don't like the way he jumps.

al ferof for me wants further than two, and i think SS can easily reverse supreme form over fences. there's just a slight doubt hanging over al ferof imo, think he could get beat before the festival.

dont like the way menorah has been campaigned but he's a class horse and would be my saver bet if he goes. i didnt touch sizing last year because of how he was campaigned and look where that got me. the others just dont look arkle horses or are just out of their depth.

so based on that, if the race were to be run tomorrow i dont think SS would be bigger than 6/4. yes it's a few months away but im prepared to take the risk. you even already have a trainer in alan king not wanting to go near him. he looks pretty exceptional and his price is only going to shorten imo.

that's true, but then we don't know what sprinter sacre is capable of in two/three years, maybe he will stay 2m4f or more. Sizing and Forpady are two milers tho, despite getting further. Voy Por won the CC the year after the Arkle as well and wasnt stepped up in trip until taking on master minded at aintree a few years later. azertyioup/well chief/moscow were all arkle winners that were out an out two milers. i think the staying thing is a bit of a myth, some of the arkles won by the stayers were awful runnings.

sprinter sacre's price can't get any bigger is what i'm saying. Al Ferof, Cue Card, Peddlers aren't capable of putting up a performance that'll lengthen SS's price, imo, and if they underperform, ss gets shorter.

people will doubt it just because it's 'cheltenham', but from what i've seen so far from every horse prominent in the arkle market needs to improve a lot to beat him.

These people who say he compares to Finians Rainbow are very one-dimensional. Same trainer yes.

Same trainer, similar performances pre Cheltenham (cruising round on the bridle against inferior opposition and being heavily backed as a result), similar performances at Cheltenham (cruising round on the bridle then finding very little, twice now in the case of Finian's Rainbow) so very much more than one dimension, that's 3 I've mentioned there. When you chuck that little lot in , 5-2 makes very little appeal.

Good to see you are still around allinadayswork, you given up the dogs totally and just concentrating on the horses?? Hope things are going well.

Whoever thinks he's like Finians Rainbow should read Geraghty's blog, who says he's nothing like him!

Reference to last year's Supreme is a complete red herring. He was immature and weak. Soft ground is likely to prove a bigger barrier to winning than the hill.

Budde, it takes someone quite stupid to conclude a horse failed to get home based on one run at a track, where he actually framed, in a Grade 1, as a novice. I suspect you said the same things about Binocular.

History is absolutley littered with horses placing at Cheltenham as noivce but then winning later on.

Always amazes me why people cant learn from this.

I've no idea if 5/2 is value or not. You can pick holes but you can do the same for other candidates ..

My point is re SS, if he failed to get home when finishing 3rd, then what about all the others in behind that day ??

Not if the front two took each other on too soon, Budd. They were sitting ducks,imo. And Cue Card finished 4th who had won at the track twice previously.

yep,in hindsight they probably did go too early,but they were travelling so well i dont think the jockeys had a lot of choice really.Be interesting to see if the same happens in the Arkle.
Personally i aint writing SS off as a horse that dont get home,i was just saying he did not in the supreme,well not as well as the front 2,but i appreciate their were reasons as have been discussed.

But anyway this thread is all about the 5/2 price so unless we are actually discussing that,i think this current discussion belongs on the Sprinter Sacre thread on the Cheltenham forum.

take your points, fairplay.

finian's though was available at much bigger prices even after two runs, which goes to show the general regard/view people have for sprinter sacre in comparison.

i never liked FR last year and actually place laid him. this year i love sprinter sacre. dont think they are alike in any aspect.

I agree perhaps wouldnt want to take much shorter than what I have got (11/4) but while they will be going fast for a novice chase, it won't be the same breakneck pace of a multi runner hurdle race around Cheltenham - for a start they need to give themselves time to organise themselves to jump the bigger fences!
Plus the horse was always regarded as more of a chasing type anyway so I think the placed form around here is a big plus for me with more to come.